Latest news with #USTradeWar
Sky News
a day ago
- Business
- Sky News
Bank of England holds rate but eyes cuts ahead despite global risks
The Bank of England has signalled that a weakening labour market could yet trump rising global challenges to allow for more interest rate cuts in the near term. Policymakers on the nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) voted 7-3 to maintain Bank rate at 4.25%. There was greater support than was expected for a cut. The Bank had previously signalled that a majority on the committee were cautious about the effects of global instability - especially the on-off US trade war. But the minutes of the Bank's meeting showed there was a greater focus on a rising jobless rate and evidence that employers are shedding jobs - indicating it had dominated the meeting. It acknowledged, however, that there were potential challenges from the on-off US trade war and as a result of the Israel-Iran conflict. The barrage of warheads has already resulted in double-digit percentage spikes to oil and natural gas prices in the space of a week. "Interest rates remain on a gradual downward path," governor Andrew Bailey said while adding that there was no pre-set path. "The world is highly unpredictable. In the UK we are seeing signs of softening in the labour market. We will be looking carefully at the extent to which those signs feed through to consumer price inflation," he added. The Bank maintained its core message that it would take a "gradual" and "careful" approach. "Energy prices had risen owing to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The committee would remain vigilant about these developments and their potential impact on the UK economy," the Bank said. The rise in the UK's jobless rate, along with recent data on payrolled employment, has been linked to a business backlash against budget measures, which kicked in in April, that saw employer national insurance contributions and minimum pay demands rise. While a weaker labour market, including a fall in vacancies, could allow room for the Bank to react through further interest rate cuts, the spectre of war in the Middle East is now clouding its rate judgements. The last thing borrowers need is an inflation spike. The UK's core measure of inflation peaked above 11% in the wake of Russa's invasion of Ukraine - giving birth to what became known as the cost of living crisis. 1:21 Inflation across the economy was driven by unprecedented spikes in natural gas costs, which pushed up not only household energy bills to record levels but those for businesses too - with the cost of goods and services reflecting those extra costs. Borrowing costs have eased, through interest rate cuts, as the pace of price growth has come down. The rate of inflation currently stands at 3.4% but was already forecast to rise in the second half of the year before the aerial bombardments between Israel and Iran had begun. LSEG data shortly after the Bank of England minutes were published showed that financial markets were expecting a quarter point cut at the Bank's next meeting in August and at least one more by the year's end. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.
Reuters
15-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Ontario expects budget deficit to more than double in face of US tariffs
TORONTO, May 15 (Reuters) - Ontario, Canada's most populous province and manufacturing powerhouse, on Thursday forecast its widest budget deficit since the height of the pandemic, more than doubling in size, and a slower move into surplus as it increased spending to support the economy in a trade war with the United States. The province's ruling Progressive Conservative Party retained power in a February election, with Premier Doug Ford calling the vote more than a year early, arguing that he needed a stronger mandate to fight U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. Ontario sends more than three-quarters of its exports to the United States, including autos, steel and aluminum, which are facing hefty U.S. duties. The province said its deficit would increase to C$14.6 billion ($10.4 billion), or 1.2% of gross domestic product, in the current fiscal year, its widest by far since 2020-21, from an estimated C$6 billion in 2024-25. The fiscal year began on April 1. A deficit is also expected in 2026-27, of C$7.8 billion, before a shift into surplus in 2027-28, one year later than was projected in a fiscal update in October. A C$2 billion reserve is set aside in each fiscal year. Economic growth was forecast to slow to 0.8% this year from 1.5% in 2024. Other major provinces, such as Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta, have also projected a deterioration in their finances. "Our government is delivering on our mandate to protect Ontario and help workers and businesses weather the storm, while creating the long-term foundations for a strong, resilient and competitive economy," Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy said in a statement. "We're making the investments in workers, infrastructure and services that will protect Ontario, no matter what," Bethlenfalvy said. Measures include a C$5 billion emergency backstop for businesses facing significant tariff-related disruptions, expanding a manufacturing investment tax credit at a cost of C$1.3 billion and C$500 million for a new fund to help increase the province's processing capacity in critical minerals. The province, one of the world's largest sub-sovereign borrowers, is also adding C$5 billion to a fund that partners with Canadian institutional investors to finance infrastructure projects, such as energy, affordable housing, long-term care and transportation. It forecast that its net debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 37.9% in the current fiscal year from its lowest in more than a decade of 36.3% in 2024-25. A further increase to 38.9% is expected in 2026-27 before dipping to 38.6% in 2027-28. Still, long-term borrowing is forecast to decline to C$42.8 billion in 2025-26 from C$49.5 billion in the last fiscal year, which was more than anticipated, with further declines expected in future years. ($1 = 1.3998 Canadian dollars)
The Independent
11-05-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Bessent claims high-stakes trade talks with China were ‘productive' - but doesn't share any details of new deal
'Substantial progress' has been made in a U.S.-China trade deal after President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs fueled a trade war with the world's second-biggest economy. The two countries held high-stakes talks this weekend after being at loggerheads for weeks over the tariffs. While the administration has yet to share details of their deal, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the discussions as 'productive' and said the administration will share more on Monday. 'I'm happy to report that we made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks,' Bessent said in a Sunday afternoon statement. Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were deployed to meet with their Chinese counterparts in Geneva in an attempt to thrash out a deal. Saturday's meeting lasted at least eight hours, while Sunday's lasted several hours, according to the Wall Street Journal. 'We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive,' Bessent said. 'We had the vice premier, two vice ministers, who were integrally involved, Ambassador Jamieson, and myself.' 'And I spoke to President Trump, as did Ambassador Jamieson, last night, and he is fully informed of what is going on,' he added. 'So, there will be a complete briefing tomorrow morning.' Greer said 'a lot of groundwork' went into the two days of talks. 'Just remember why we're here in the first place — the United States has a massive $1.2 trillion trade deficit, so the President declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs, and we're confident that the deal we struck with our Chinese partners will help us to work toward resolving that national emergency,' he said. Trump similarly described the first day of meetings as 'very good' in a Saturday night Truth Social post. 'A very good meeting today with China, in Switzerland. Many things discussed, much agreed to. A total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner,' Trump wrote. 'We want to see, for the good of both China and the U.S., an opening up of China to American business. GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!' China's state-run news agency Xinhua described Saturday's meetings as 'an important step toward resolving the dispute.' Trump imposed tariffs of 145 percent on Chinese goods, while China has set 125 percent tariffs on U.S. products, with huge consequences for both countries. China supplies a massive amount of electronics, toys, textiles and furniture to the U.S. as it buys grains and oilseeds from American farmers, as well as oil and gas. But in recent days, Trump has hinted that he could lower the tariffs in a bid to turn down the heat between the two nations. The president on Friday suggested lowering the tariffs to 80 percent. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Friday that Trump may even settle near 34 percent during an interview with Fox News, the rate the president announced on April 2.
Zawya
09-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
US stock index futures muted after rally; China talks awaited
U.S. stock index futures were subdued on Friday after a rally in the previous session, when a new trade agreement between the United States and Britain had fueled expectations of more such deals to ease the sting of the global trade war. Investors are also awaiting meetings between U.S. and China representatives over the weekend in Switzerland. Wall Street closed higher on Thursday after Britain and the U.S. struck the deal - the first of its kind since President Donald Trump paused his initial tariffs last month. Under the new agreement, Britain will lower its tariffs on U.S. goods and provide greater import access, while the U.S.-imposed 10% baselines tariffs will remain in place. However, the limited nature of the agreement brought up questions about its actual impact and potential to be used as a template for deals with other countries. "Yesterday's price action suggests that investors are eager for good news and react positively — even if the news isn't that great... it's all in how it's delivered," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. Meanwhile, Reuters reported India had offered to slash its tariff gap with the U.S. to less than 4% from nearly 13% now, in exchange for an exemption from Trump's tariffs, according to sources. The Switzerland meetings between U.S. and China representatives will also grab focus, after Trump said he expected substantial negotiations and that China tariffs would come down from 145%. "In the best-case scenario, talks go well, both countries commit to finding a reasonable deal, markets rally on Monday. Or… the talks break down, Trump says something he shouldn't, and we wake up to another hectic week," said Ozkardeskaya. A tit-for-tat tariff policy between the world's two biggest economies has raised concerns over the hit to global economic growth, leaving markets, companies and the U.S. Federal Reserve in wait-and-watch mode. Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the economy was in good shape, but acknowledged the heightened risks of inflation and unemployment and that it was unclear what the appropriate monetary policy response was at the moment. At 05:36 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 48 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 3.5 points, or 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 36.25 points, or 0.18%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are set for marginal declines this week. In a light day for earnings, Trade Desk shares jumped 14% in premarket trading after the ad firm posted first-quarter revenue and profit above Wall Street estimates. Pinterest climbed 13.4%, a day after it forecast current-quarter revenue above estimates. Expedia slipped 9.4% after the online travel platform missed quarterly revenue estimates. A host of Fed officials including presidents John Williams, Austan Goolsbee and Thomas Barkin are scheduled to speak through the day, in the first appearances after the latest Fed decision. (Reporting by Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath)
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US stock index futures muted after rally; China talks awaited
(Reuters) -U.S. stock index futures were subdued on Friday after a rally in the previous session, when a new trade agreement between the United States and Britain had fueled expectations of more such deals to ease the sting of the global trade war. Investors are also awaiting meetings between U.S. and China representatives over the weekend in Switzerland. Wall Street closed higher on Thursday after Britain and the U.S. struck the deal - the first of its kind since President Donald Trump paused his initial tariffs last month. Under the new agreement, Britain will lower its tariffs on U.S. goods and provide greater import access, while the U.S.-imposed 10% baselines tariffs will remain in place. However, the limited nature of the agreement brought up questions about its actual impact and potential to be used as a template for deals with other countries. "Yesterday's price action suggests that investors are eager for good news and react positively — even if the news isn't that great... it's all in how it's delivered," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. Meanwhile, Reuters reported India had offered to slash its tariff gap with the U.S. to less than 4% from nearly 13% now, in exchange for an exemption from Trump's tariffs, according to sources. The Switzerland meetings between U.S. and China representatives will also grab focus, after Trump said he expected substantial negotiations and that China tariffs would come down from 145%. "In the best-case scenario, talks go well, both countries commit to finding a reasonable deal, markets rally on Monday. Or… the talks break down, Trump says something he shouldn't, and we wake up to another hectic week," said Ozkardeskaya. A tit-for-tat tariff policy between the world's two biggest economies has raised concerns over the hit to global economic growth, leaving markets, companies and the U.S. Federal Reserve in wait-and-watch mode. Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the economy was in good shape, but acknowledged the heightened risks of inflation and unemployment and that it was unclear what the appropriate monetary policy response was at the moment. At 05:36 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 48 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 3.5 points, or 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 36.25 points, or 0.18%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are set for marginal declines this week. In a light day for earnings, Trade Desk shares jumped 14% in premarket trading after the ad firm posted first-quarter revenue and profit above Wall Street estimates. Pinterest climbed 13.4%, a day after it forecast current-quarter revenue above estimates. Expedia slipped 9.4% after the online travel platform missed quarterly revenue estimates. A host of Fed officials including presidents John Williams, Austan Goolsbee and Thomas Barkin are scheduled to speak through the day, in the first appearances after the latest Fed decision.
