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Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Has Trump ‘chickened out' on Iran? Five reasons for his two-week delay
On Tuesday evening, Donald Trump appeared poised to join Israel's war against Iran. Having left the G7 summit in Canada early, he convened an emergency meeting of his national security advisers. JD Vance, his vice-president and a staunch opponent of foreign military entanglements, signalled that the president was contemplating action. Mr Trump issued a series of increasingly bellicose warnings, demanding Iran's 'unconditional surrender'. 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding,' he wrote in a social media post. Yet within 48 hours, the president had pulled back. To some observers of US politics, this will seem like another instance of Mr Trump living up to his 'Taco' instincts – 'Trump Always Chickens Out', the acronym that so palpably infuriates him. There are, however, several plausible reasons for delay. Mr Trump's flirtation with war has sharply divided his base. Maga loyalists, whose foreign policy instincts are overwhelmingly isolationist, are aghast at the prospect of their standard-bearer dragging them into a new conflict, especially after campaigning so forcefully against just such adventurism. 'Anyone slobbering for the US to become involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/Maga,' Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of Mr Trump's most ardent Congressional allies, posted on social media. The prospect of US military action in the Middle East has thrown into relief the deep ideological rift on the American right, one that sets traditional hawks like Senator Lindsey Graham, who still see the US as the world's policeman, against the populist wing led by figures like Steve Bannon, who reject the interventionism that characterised the George W. Bush era. Mr Bannon and his allies have long argued that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were catastrophic, costly mistakes that drained US power and served global rather than national interests. By championing an 'America-first ideology', Mr Trump has echoed that view, casting himself as a president intent on disengaging from distant conflicts that do not directly threaten the US homeland. He now faces a delicate balancing act. Aligning too closely with Israel risks him being recast – by his own movement – as a 'neocon', indistinguishable from the foreign policy establishment he once vowed to upend. But appearing to abandon Israel, America's most cherished ally, carries its own political perils. Beyond the politics, strategic considerations are undoubtedly playing a major role – factors presumably impressed upon the president by cooler heads at the Pentagon. A brief delay allows more time to position US offensive assets. The USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group is already in the Arabian Sea, while the Nimitz group is en route from the Indo-Pacific. Waiting will enable full integration with other US forces in the region. With more than 40,000 US troops stationed across 19 sites in the Middle East, Washington will want to bolster its defences against potential Iranian retaliation. The US has upgraded air defences in the region over the past five years, but may still choose to deploy additional Patriot batteries or THAAD systems. Allowing more time for Israel to further degrade Iranian defences may also be a consideration, particularly around the deeply buried enrichment facility of Fordow, likely to be the prime US target. Mr Trump will be wary of the political and military fallout if a prized B-2 bomber were to be shot down. The more Israel weakens Tehran's defensive capabilities, the less risky the operation becomes for US forces. Although Mr Trump has long opposed Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, he fundamentally sees this as Israel's war. In his calculus, the onus is therefore on the Israel Defence Forces to clear the path as much as possible. If Fordow is to be destroyed from the air, only the US can do so using its 30,000-lb GBU-57 'Massive Ordnance Penetrator' bunker busters, which can only be deployed by the B-2. But Washington may expect Israel to lead in neutralising peripheral threats by knocking out radar sites, missile batteries, and command-and-control infrastructure that could complicate a US strike. American officials may also be waiting to see whether Israel can carry out alternative forms of action against Fordow. Covert sabotage remains an option. Israel could target ventilation systems or access tunnels to seal the site or attempt to strike the plant's power supplies, a move that could cause its delicate centrifuge cascades to spin out of control. A pause also offers benefits from an intelligence-gathering perspective. The US can use the window to monitor how Iran is repositioning its military assets, particularly its integrated air defence network and ballistic missile units. Analysts will also be watching to see how effectively Iran's military command is functioning in the wake of Israel's campaign of targeted assassinations against senior generals. Diplomatically, voices at the State Department may have counselled restraint as well. There are indications that Iran, while rejecting the demand for 'unconditional surrender', is signalling interest in a negotiated off-ramp. A short pause gives time for back-channel diplomacy to take place – possibly with Europe, and particularly France, playing a role in mediation. Perhaps most importantly, the delay gives Mr Trump an opportunity to reassert some control over Iran policy – an agenda increasingly driven by Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, appears to have calculated that the US president would eventually feel compelled to join his campaign and deliver the finishing blow to Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Had Mr Trump launched strikes immediately, he risked the perception that the US was being led by its ally on one of the most consequential national security decisions of his presidency. While that impression may prove difficult to erase entirely, the delay buys Mr Trump the space to project greater independence should he ultimately decide to enter the war in a fortnight's time. There is one other possibility that cannot be discounted. The two-week delay could be a feint, designed to catch Iran off guard, only for the US to strike well before the deadline. With a president as unpredictable as Mr Trump, anything, after all, is possible.
Yahoo
22-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Pentagon orders second Navy carrier group to the Middle East
The U.S. military is sending the USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group to the Middle East, as fighting with Houthi forces around Yemen reignites after a two-month pause. According to reporting from the Associated Press, the USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group will end its current deployment in east Asia in the 7th Fleet's area of responsibility and head to the waters around Yemen. That will bolster American force projection in the region, as the ships will be joining the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group in the fight against Houthi forces around Yemen. That carrier group's deployment to the Middle East has extended another month, according to the Associated Press. The dual carrier deployment comes a week into renewed fighting between U.S. forces and the Houthis, a religious and Yemeni nationalist group that controls much of Yemen, including the capital city. Since October 2023, the group has launched rockets and drones at commercial ships passing through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, in response to Israel's war in Gaza. The U.S. Navy and Air Force have repeatedly intercepted those munitions and carried out bombing campaigns on Houthi-controlled areas. After a ceasefire was signed in January, the Houthis halted their attacks and the U.S. in turn stopped strikes on Yemen. That ended last weekend when the Truman Carrier Strike Group launched attacks on Yemen in response to the Houthis saying they would renew actions in the Red Sea. The Carl Vinson and its ships are expected to take two-three weeks to arrive in the Middle East. The last time two carrier strike groups were in the CENTCOM area of responsibility was in September. In August, previous Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln and its support ships to 'accelerate' to the Middle East to join the USS Theodore Roosevelt Strike Group as a deterrent to Iranian strikes against Israel after the latter carried out strikes in Lebanon and and Iran. The expanded naval presence was part of a wider increase in American military projection to the region. The Roosevelt and its strike group left in September. Along with its namesake carrier, the Vinson Carrier Strike Group includes a Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser and two Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers, in addition to the aircraft that make up Carrier Air Wing 2. The Vinson and its strike group has been in the waters around the Korean Peninsula in recent weeks, visiting Busan and conducting drills and exercises with the Republic of Korea Navy, and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force following recent missile tests by North Korea. The Truman Carrier Strike Group entered the 5th Fleet's domain in December to support the fight against the Houthis and saw extensive action in the last weeks of 2024. It briefly left the Middle East for a port visit to Greece for repairs from a collision with a merchant ship, but has been back in the Red Sea. Its deployment was originally set to end at the end of this month. Fighters from Carrier Air Wing 1 took part in the newest strikes on Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen this month. In the previous months-long engagement against the Houthis, the U.S. Navy expended more than 400 munitions and sent multiple carrier groups and independent ships to the area around Yemen. President Donald Trump has pledged to 'completely annihilate' the Houthis in this latest fight, but a Pentagon spokesman has said that the now week-long conflict is 'not an endless offensive.' Arlington Cemetery website drops links for Black, Hispanic, and women veterans The Army wants to get the load soldiers carry down to 55 pounds Here are the latest military units deploying to the U.S.-Mexico border Why Washington state used M60 tanks to prevent avalanches Historic 'China Marines' battalion converts into latest Littoral Combat Team
