Latest news with #USPolicy
Al Arabiya
5 hours ago
- Politics
- Al Arabiya
Trump presided over national security meeting on Iran, US official says
US President Donald Trump presided over a national security meeting about Iran with top aides at the White House on Friday, a US official said. The official also said US special envoy Steve Witkoff is in regular contact with the Iranians, both directly and indirectly, with Qatar acting as an intermediator.
Yahoo
14 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Currency Traders Are Ditching Dollar for Euro on Options Bets
(Bloomberg) -- The euro is taking on a bigger role in the global currency options market as traders skirt around the dollar given the risks from unpredictable US policy and a global trade war. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown There's been a shift in trading volumes. Around 15% to 30% of contracts tied to the dollar versus major currencies were switched to the euro, looking at data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation for the first five months of this year versus the final five months of 2024. There are also signs the euro is being used as a haven — traditionally the dollar's role — and for bets on big moves. While deals involving the dollar still dominate in the $7.5 trillion-a-day currency market, this could be early evidence that the greenback is facing greater competition as the world's reserve currency. Traders are sidestepping the dollar after its biggest slump in years, with Europe's common currency looking like a key beneficiary as the region's markets benefit from billions in government stimulus spending. 'If we're moving to an environment in which the European flow story is more important, then we could be moving to an environment in which it's euro pairs which are driving everything,' said Oliver Brennan, options strategist at BNP Paribas SA. So far this year, Europe's common currency has rallied 11% against the dollar, hitting its highest since 2021 at above $1.16. Meanwhile the dollar has slid against every major currency, with a gauge down over 7% to its lowest since 2022. That's undermining trust in US assets. And the slump may not be over yet. Hedge fund heavyweight Paul Tudor Jones just predicted another 10% drop for the dollar over the next year. Risk reversals, a gauge of options sentiment, are becoming increasingly negative on the dollar against the yen, whereas they are turning less bearish on euro-yen — a 'really important signal' on the euro for Brennan. As markets question the dollar's stability, implied volatility in the euro against the yen is looking the calmest in nearly four years relative to swings between the greenback and Japanese currency. 'The market is thinking that dollar-yen will be more volatile than euro-yen in a negative market shock, which is the opposite to how the market has traded these events in the past,' said Brennan. 'If that's the thinking, then it means the market sees the euro as more of a safe haven than the dollar.' The cost of options is also a driver, said Ben Ford, currency strategist at Macro Hive. While implied volatility generally has eased after spiking in April's market chaos, it stands at nearly 11% over three months for dollar-yen, compared with under 9% for euro-yen. 'The market is finding cheaper ways to express its view, especially given the view is probably for euro outperformance,' Ford said. Traders also seem to be favoring the euro over the dollar when it comes to hedging or betting on big directional moves on the yen. That's evident in so-called 10-delta fly spreads, a gauge of demand for outsized swings, where the gap between euro-yen and dollar-yen has been steadily widening since April. Of course, the dollar has been written off many times before. Just at the start of this year, the euro was languishing near parity with the greenback, with many investors certain the common currency's value would fall below its US peer. Instead Trump's April's tariff announcements saw investors dump dollar assets. While US stocks have recovered since then, the dollar risk premium remains elevated, and it may require a return to US exceptionalism to reverse the trend, according to Tanvir Sandhu, chief global derivatives strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Meanwhile the European Central Bank's President Christine Lagarde has called on policymakers to seize the moment and increase the euro's global profile. 'There's a push and a pull — the pull has been that there's potentially more safe assets to buy in Europe and more growth expectations in Europe,' said BNP's Brennan. 'And the push has been tariff uncertainty, risks to US exceptionalism, and the macro story.' Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? How a Tiny Middleman Could Access Two-Factor Login Codes From Tech Giants ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Wall Street Journal
2 days ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Irish Central Bank Warns U.S. Policy Changes Could Lead to Slower Growth, Higher Debt
Ireland's economy faces heightened uncertainty as a result of changing U.S. policy that could see its economy grow much more slowly than previously expected and government tax revenue fall sharply, the country's central bank said. The operations of U.S. businesses account for a big share of Irish economic output, employment and tax revenue. While they have used Ireland as a low-tax base from which to export to the rest of Europe, many also sell a big share of their production to the U.S.
Arab News
3 days ago
- Business
- Arab News
Is the US' Syria policy empowering Turkiye?
The Trump administration's decision to withdraw 500 troops from eastern Syria in April, and its stated aim of drawing down more, appears part of a broader shift in US policy toward Syria. In the immediate aftermath of Bashar Assad's fall, Washington seemed hostile toward the new regime. Officials expressed concern about the background of Syria's new president, Ahmad Al-Sharaa, and warned Damascus about the fate of Syria's minorities and the possible resurgence of Daesh. Yet, in recent months, President Donald Trump has agreed to drop sanctions on Syria and appointed a new envoy to Damascus, as well as reducing the US' military footprint in the east. This does not necessarily indicate that the US is embracing Al-Sharaa, despite Trump's complimentary words when they met in Riyadh. Instead, it seems the White House is 'de-prioritizing' Syria: reducing both its hostility, in the form of economic and diplomatic sanctions, and its military presence. This will be welcomed by Damascus, but also by the new leadership's principal regional ally, Turkiye. Indeed, Ankara appears to be the major beneficiary of the new US approach. The de-prioritizing has three primary strands. The first was to begin lifting sanctions. After his surprising meeting with Al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia, Trump agreed to remove the sanctions crippling Syria's economy, arguing it 'would give them a chance.' As well as granting immediate sanction relief in late May, the White House is reportedly preparing an executive order that will permanently rescind a raft of economic restrictions. The second strand is direct engagement with the new regime. After meeting Al-Sharaa in person, Trump appointed the US' ambassador to Turkiye, Tom Barrack, as special envoy to Syria. Within days, Barrack travelled to Damascus and symbolically raised the Stars and Stripes over the US ambassador's residence there, the first time it had flown since Washington closed the embassy at the height of Syria's civil war in 2012. It seems the White House is 'de-prioritizing' Syria: reducing both its hostility and its military presence Christopher Phillips The third strand is a reduction in troop numbers in eastern Syria. As well as removing 500 of the 2,000 troops in recent weeks, US forces are cutting their number of military bases from eight to one. There are further plans to lower the number of troops to under 1,000, with Trump himself keen to remove all US forces. Combined, these changes suggest Washington is, as Trump said, willing to give the new regime a chance and that it is not interested in being a prominent player in post-Assad Syria. These shifts reflect Trump's apparent change in approach to the Middle East since his tour of the Gulf in May. His general preference, as in his first term, is to reduce the US' footprint in the region, while prioritizing opportunities that increase US trade. He remains concerned with confronting Iran over its nuclear deal and offering broad protection to Israel but, beyond these core concerns, he seems willing to allow key allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkiye to take the lead in regional matters that do not interest him. Syria falls within this latter category. With the economy in a poor state, there are few opportunities for Trump to make money for now — despite the appeal of building a Trump Tower in Damascus — and, with Iran having exited the scene, staying in eastern Syria to frustrate Tehran has lost its salience. Israel remains concerned with events in Syria, having launched several raids since the fall of Assad, arguing it is concerned about protecting the Druze community. However, Trump has shown signs of frustration with Benjamin Netanyahu in recent weeks, suggesting Washington will not let Israeli opposition to Al-Sharaa direct its approach to Damascus. But if one US regional ally will be somewhat frustrated by the new approach to Syria, another will be delighted. Turkiye benefits from all three of the US policy changes. Turkiye is well placed to benefit from any Syrian reconstruction, with its energy and construction companies lined up to play a prominent role. Trump lifting the sanctions removes any barriers to Turkish companies pouring into Syria, which would provide a much-needed boost to Turkiye's flagging economy. Trump meeting Al-Sharaa gives Turkiye's ally increased legitimacy, making it easier for Syria to be reintegrated Christopher Phillips The US' engagement with Damascus is similarly beneficial. Trump meeting Al-Sharaa gives Turkiye's ally increased legitimacy, making it easier for Syria to be reintegrated into the international community, which would also benefit Ankara. Moreover, Trump's appointment of Barrack as Damascus envoy, a role he will perform alongside his ambassadorship to Turkiye, is a major boost. Barrack is believed to be sympathetic to Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government and playing the dual roles means he is more likely to view Syria through how it relates to Turkiye. But the biggest benefit for Ankara is the drawing down in the east, something Erdogan has wanted for years. The US has already put serious pressure on its eastern Syrian ally, the Syrian Democratic Forces, to integrate into Al-Sharaa's new leadership and reducing troop numbers puts them in an even more precarious position. Ankara has long sought the destruction or dissolution of the SDF, so the less US protection they have, the more the SDF's leaders will feel compelled to abandon the goals of autonomy that Turkiye so strongly opposes. Turkiye's recent forming of an anti-Daesh coalition with Iraq, Jordan and Syria is similarly part of a wider strategy to convince the US that Ankara can lead anti-Daesh operations in the region, lessening Washington's need to back the SDF. The question, of course, is whether Trump and his administration recognize that Turkiye benefits from its new position on Syria, and whether it cares. One reading is that Erdogan has skillfully manipulated Trump, who is known to like the Turkish president. But another reading is that Trump is aware of the benefits but is happy to empower Turkiye in Syria — and hold Ankara to account if things go wrong. Whatever the truth, Turkiye is reaping the rewards of Washington's new approach to Syria. However, with this power could come responsibility for Ankara if the situation worsens.
Telegraph
10-06-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
US drops support for a Palestinian state
Supporting an independent Palestinian state is no longer official US policy, according to Mike Huckabee, America's ambassador to Israel. Mr Huckabee used an interview with Bloomberg to rule out a two-state solution in the Middle East, a policy first supported by George W Bush in 2002, ditched by Donald Trump at the start of his first term in 2017 and reinstated by Joe Biden. Asked whether Washington backed a two-state solution, Mr Huckabee replied, 'I don't think so'. He continued: 'Unless there are some significant things that happen that change the culture, there's no room for it.' Mr Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas who ran for the White House in 2008 and 2016, is a long-standing supporter of Israel. Upon being nominated as Washington's ambassador to Israel, Mr Huckabee told Israeli Army Radio that he believed the annexation of Judea and Samaria – the biblical term used by Israel to describe the West Bank – was a possibility. In the Bloomberg interview, Mr Huckabee argued that three million Palestinians currently living under occupation in the West Bank could be re-accommodated in land carved out of another Muslim country in the Middle East, rather than expecting Israel to surrender territory. 'Does it have to be in Judea and Samaria?' he said. An Evangelical Christian and former Baptist minister, Mr Huckabee has led religious pilgrimages to Israel and visited the country dozens of times. He has long dismissed the idea of a Palestinian state. 'There's really no such thing as a Palestinian,' he said in a previous interview. Mr Huckabee's appointment by Mr Trump was seen as an endorsement of hard-liners in the Israeli government and the burgeoning settlements in the West Bank. On being appointed, he hailed Mr Trump's support for Israel, which, during his first term, included recognising Israeli control of the Golan Heights and moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. According to a Pew Research poll, 46 per cent of American Jews do support a two-state solution. The State Department has not responded to Mr Huckabee's remarks.
