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Sky News AU
10-06-2025
- Business
- Sky News AU
Lucy Guo dethroning Taylor Swift as youngest self-made female billionaire shows drastic shift in how entrepreneurs find their path to billions in the modern era
Last week, tech entrepreneur Lucy Guo, 30, unseated Taylor Swift, 35, as the world's youngest self-made female billionaire, with Forbes estimating Guo's $1.3 billion net worth from her five per cent stake in Scale AI, valued at $25 billion. Swift, with a reported $US1.6 billion fortune, reclaimed ownership of her masters for her first six albums for $360 million, cementing her status as the richest female musician of all time. These milestones highlight the evolving landscape of ultra wealth creation in the modern era. Beyond perhaps the enjoyment of escapism that comes with reading these remarkable stories, why should we care? Well, because the path to billions impacts us all – from the innovations they unlock to the trickle-down economics they may (or may not) create, to the cultural shifts they reveal in how 'wealth worshipping' has evolved over time. The History of Billionaire Status Self-made billionaires have reshaped economies since the Industrial Revolution, with around 5,000 emerging in inflation-adjusted terms, per historians like Thomas Piketty. Gilded Age titans like Andrew Carnegie ($309 billion, adjusted, North America) and John D. Rockefeller ($400 billion, North America) built empires in steel and oil, while Asia's Mir Osman Ali Khan ($230 billion) leveraged trade. The table below shows billionaire growth, with their share of global population rising from 0.0014 per cent in the 1930s to 0.0123 per cent in the 2010s, reflecting globalisation and the rise of tech as the biggest wealth-maker known to humankind. It also reveals the changing nature of global economics, with the US dominating last century (70 per cent of all billionaires in the 1920s) but Asia's share growing to 40 per cent by the 2010s, driven by tech and manufacturing. Historically, wealth took decades to build — Andrew Carnegie was 52, Rockefeller 54 — but it was built on durable industrial empires, if vulnerable to regulation and anti-trust law. The Path to Billions Today Today, the path to billions is much faster revealing the speed-to-market enabled by tech, financial instruments, and global fame. The global tech industry, now valued at over $5 trillion in 2024, grows rapidly through innovation, with high-margin profit pools in software (e.g., SaaS) and hardware (e.g., smartphones). Jeff Bezos, worth $250 billion, is perhaps the best example of modern tech's path, having founded Amazon and scaled it through e-commerce dominance and AWS's cloud computing profits. Finance, a $10 trillion market, grows steadily at four to six per cent annually, with profits from banking, insurance, asset management, and now crypto fueling the rise (and fall, in the case of Sam Bankman-Freid) of mega billionaires over the past half century. Ray Dalio, with $15.4 billion, built his fortune founding Bridgewater Associates, leveraging high-fee hedge fund strategies and consistent returns. And then there's the $2.5 trillion Media industry growing at three to five per cent. While not as large as Tech and Finance, it punches above its weight given the 'fame factor' and has also experienced some of the largest sector redefining disruptions in the last two decades. Jay-Z, worth $2.5 billion and reportedly the richest musician of all time and Taylor Swift worth $1.6 billion, best represent media's path to billions, amassed through music sales, tours, and diversified ventures in fashion and lucrative brand partnerships proving the value of fame and global fanbases. In aggregate since 2000, tech has minted ~800 billionaires, entertainment ~100, and finance ~600. The under-40 cohort, led by tech (70 per cent), includes 25 billionaires under 34 with $110 billion, per Forbes 2025. What Tomorrow May Bring Over the next decade, ultra-wealth creation will likely accelerate, driven by AI, biotech, and decentralised platforms. The US is expected to continue dominating the AI landscape, from Sam Altman to Alexander Wang. But the path to billions will continue to globalise beyond the US. Examples include India's Deepinder Goyal, founder of Zomato, who is expected to join the billionaire club as the food delivery platform expands across Asia's booming markets. In Africa, Nigeria's Iyinoluwa Aboyeji, co-founder of Flutterwave, is a strong contender with his fintech unicorn streamlining payments across the continent. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia's Nadiem Makarim, behind Gojek's super-app empire, is well-positioned as digital economies flourish. These rising stars, leveraging scalable tech and emerging market growth, signal a shift toward younger, self-made billionaires in emerging markets at a pace not seen before. So, what might be the societal impact of this continued acceleration of the path to billions? Historically, industrialists drove 20 per cent of economic gains to the bottom 50 per cent via jobs and infrastructure. Today, expect to see the continued concentration of wealth in fewer hands by the very nature of the modern technologically driven economy that is built on exponentially increasing automation, scalability and operational leverage. Trillion-dollar fortunes may emerge, but job displacement and wage disparity may widen as traditional economic trickle-down effects diminish from these innovations. On the other hand, democratised access to AI tools, education, and decentralised finance could empower individuals to innovate and build wealth independently, with the AI revolution expected to take the 'individual creator economy' to levels never before seen. Finally, it must be remembered that technology-based wealth creation has led to an unprecedented democratisation of information access and flow, which is arguably the most powerful trickle-down effect of all. Kosha Gada is a tech entrepreneur who also serves as a board member of sports betting platform PointsBet. She is a broadcast commentator on US and international current affairs, appearing live three nights a week on Sky News Australia
The Age
09-06-2025
- Business
- The Age
What collapse? How F45 Australia is plotting a comeback
Halfway into 2022, the world's fastest growing fitness empire began making headlines for all the wrong reasons. Barely 12 months had passed since a beaming Mark Wahlberg was photographed with F45 Training co-founder and chief executive Adam Gilchrist at the New York Stock Exchange, where the company soared to a $US1.6 billion ($2.5 billion) valuation and $US16 share price. Suddenly, Gilchrist was stepping down, and 110 employees were being laid off. Profit and revenue forecasts had been slashed. The share price plunged. A few months later, David Beckham – an ambassador for the brand – launched a lawsuit against it. In July 2023, F45 admitted to 'material errors' in financial figures that wound up being losses of $US372 million. F45 delisted from the NYSE the following month. In Australia, F45 studios were hitting the market or closing. Since then, life has moved on, but the narrative of imminent collapse has stuck. 'A lot of people are surprised when they find out I have an open F45,' said Danielle Tuifua, who owns a studio in Sydney's coastal suburb of Dee Why. 'It all did get into a lot of people's heads that F45 was going under and closing everywhere and all that,' she said. 'They're still everywhere.' Turning over a new leaf and distancing itself from its tumultuous history of hanging onto survival is a key focus, and challenge, for the fitness chain's new management. At the helm of F45 in Australia and Asia Pacific is Adrian Furminger, who took on the general manager role a year ago after undertaking some of his own due diligence. He found that F45 was still a household name and still the leading brand in the functional group fitness sector. 'You hear the stories, like 'we're collapsing'. It's just not true,' he said. 'We still have over 200 studios across Australia. Globally, [we have] over 1500 studios. I mean, that's a massive success story. We just need to shift the narrative a little bit.' Inside the rise and fall of F45 From 2015 to 2021, few fitness chains could rival F45's hype, fuelled by Hollywood celebrities brought on to spruik the 45-minute sessions that combined high-intensity interval training, circuit training, and functional strength movements. Setting a target of 23,000 studios around the world, the empire was going to be ' bigger than McDonald's '. 'Investors could buy a gym and it would probably make money, and they probably didn't have to do much. The model was that good,' said Peter Day, a director of F45 Seaforth on Sydney's northern beaches and long-time franchisee. For local operators, the wheels started falling off once Gilchrist and co-founder Rob Deutsch – who each pocketed $US50 million in cash when Wahlberg and his investment vehicle MWIG bought a stake in 2019 – started turning their attention to overseas expansion. As part of its IPO ambitions, F45 moved its headquarters to Austin, Texas. A lot of staff went with it. Loading Communication and oversight dropped off some time after, multiple current and former franchisees said. 'More resources were getting thrown at the new studios being open in the US,' said Day. 'When you grow too quickly, you're making mistakes along the way because you probably haven't got tight processes in place,' said Stuart Maltese, who owns two studios in Melbourne's St Kilda. During that period, Tuifua noticed fewer check-ins on compliance. 'If you needed help, you would have to kick up a bit of a stink to get it.' Another fitness industry source, who requested anonymity to speak freely, described the explosion of studios as a 'house of cards'. Community-centred events, such as the F45 Playoffs – popular 10-minute fitness competitions held on Manly and Bondi beaches and accompanied by thumping electronic music and cheerleaders – dropped off. Some of the very celebrities who contributed to F45's success turned on it: Beckham and golfer Greg Norman sued, and ultimately settled with, F45 for breaching contract terms to pay out shares for the endorsement. In the pursuit of growth, F45 had oversold territories. Dozens of investor-owners who bought into the hype had purchased one or several studios thinking it would be an easy business investment, but hadn't built a strong enough community or the know-how to withstand lockdowns. The pandemic decimated dozens of gyms, F45 or otherwise, particularly those in the CBD. In the headlines, shuttered F45 studios were being linked to the turmoil unfolding in the US. 'A lot of them started to close down because they didn't have that heartbeat in the area. They didn't have that focus you need to run a business,' said Day. The negative media attention was a distraction from what was otherwise business as usual, he added. 'Mark Wahlberg, David Beckham, it doesn't matter. What [members] care about is, is it going to be good for them tomorrow? Are there going to be good trainers? Are they going to get welcomed by the name when they come in?' Members would ask trainers and studio owners what was going on in the US. 'I'd just say, it doesn't affect your burpees,' said Tuifua. F45, still headquartered in Texas, has been led by early investor Tom Dowd since March 2023. He has been openly critical of the team led by Gilchrist and Deutsch, whom he said were 'behaving like cowboys'. The pair drove F45's meteoric rise – and subsequent crash – based on projections F45 could sustain the breakneck rate of signing on 1000 new studios a year. 'People have questions, which is perfectly natural,' said Furminger. 'The best way to keep confidence is not to shy away from those questions. It's actually to lean into them and have the conversation and be as open and as transparent as we can, and genuinely, put our hands up and say, 'You're right. This has happened.' ' Has the company really stabilised? 'Marketing's doubled,' said Tuifua. 'I've got 50 or 60 more members than I had this time last year at Dee Why.' Seaforth's membership numbers, over 250, are at an all-time high. 'They've just [made] really smart, logical decisions,' Day said of F45's current leadership. The studio director and three-time Playoffs champion said he had turned down approaches from two rivals to switch brands for free and believes the fitness brand is more proactive than people realised, pointing to the volume of recipes, customised meal plans and innovation in the company's workouts. 'Yes, F45 took a hit, but they are still by a long shot the market leaders in this space,' he said. 'I think in 10 years' time, the brand which everyone will still know is F45.' 'The right to grow' At its peak, F45 had more than 600 studios in Australia. More than half of those have closed. 'That's a consolidation. We're actually OK with that,' said Furminger. 'We have to earn the right to grow, and in earning the right to grow, part of that process is to ensure that we have a strong performing network. That's where our primary focus is at the moment, to ensure that every one of our franchisees is performing well and making money,' he said. Furminger envisions reopening in locations that used to have an F45 studio. 'Will there be an opportunity for us to expand our network size in the future? Absolutely, 100 per cent.' As the pandemic reshaped workout habits, F45's highly publicised fall from grace left room for competitors such as Body Fit Training (BFT) to capture market share in the group fitness space. F45's response to the Pilates boom has been to launch FS8, a 45-minute group workout concept like its predecessor that is lower impact by blending Pilates, yoga and toning exercises. FS8's growth so far has been slow and stuttered, despite a high-profile launch with Australian surfer Mick Fanning, whose plan to open a studio in Byron Bay never materialised. The Manly studio, where Fanning announced the launch of FS8, has closed. As F45 battled a wall of bad publicity, the company initially tried to convince existing studio owners to embrace FS8, which Maltese said appealed to a very different market. 'It has its own identity that is still trying to find its way,' he said. Shaking off the past won't be easy. F45 is facing at least two class action lawsuits in the US, brought by law firms Barrack, Rodos & Bacine and Rosen Law Firm, for being misleading in its IPO documents that it said contained 'material misstatements and omissions'. F45 had floated on projections of signing on more franchisees who would own several studios rather than 'single-unit' owners, but didn't tell the market it was offering better payment terms to multi-unit franchisees, the class action complaints state. F45 declined to comment on legal matters. It will be hard for new management to avoid the shadow of Gilchrist, who was technically listed as bankrupt between 2011 and 2014, the period when F45 was founded, and departed the business with a $10 million golden handshake. Profit margins are being squeezed by fierce competition and cost-of-living pressures. Operating costs such as rent, staff, cleaning, maintenance and other bills have risen by 30 to 40 per cent over eight years, said Day. Franchisees pointed to some of F45's recent partnerships, which include Red Bull, fitness competition Hyrox, Strava and Kourtney Kardashian's wellness brand Poosh, as signs the brand was recovering. 'I think with all the marketing and all the new things we're doing, [F45] is definitely making a comeback,' Tuifua said.
Sydney Morning Herald
09-06-2025
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
What collapse? How F45 Australia is plotting a comeback
Halfway into 2022, the world's fastest growing fitness empire began making headlines for all the wrong reasons. Barely 12 months had passed since a beaming Mark Wahlberg was photographed with F45 Training co-founder and chief executive Adam Gilchrist at the New York Stock Exchange, where the company soared to a $US1.6 billion ($2.5 billion) valuation and $US16 share price. Suddenly, Gilchrist was stepping down, and 110 employees were being laid off. Profit and revenue forecasts had been slashed. The share price plunged. A few months later, David Beckham – an ambassador for the brand – launched a lawsuit against it. In July 2023, F45 admitted to 'material errors' in financial figures that wound up being losses of $US372 million. F45 delisted from the NYSE the following month. In Australia, F45 studios were hitting the market or closing. Since then, life has moved on, but the narrative of imminent collapse has stuck. 'A lot of people are surprised when they find out I have an open F45,' said Danielle Tuifua, who owns a studio in Sydney's coastal suburb of Dee Why. 'It all did get into a lot of people's heads that F45 was going under and closing everywhere and all that,' she said. 'They're still everywhere.' Turning over a new leaf and distancing itself from its tumultuous history of hanging onto survival is a key focus, and challenge, for the fitness chain's new management. At the helm of F45 in Australia and Asia Pacific is Adrian Furminger, who took on the general manager role a year ago after undertaking some of his own due diligence. He found that F45 was still a household name and still the leading brand in the functional group fitness sector. 'You hear the stories, like 'we're collapsing'. It's just not true,' he said. 'We still have over 200 studios across Australia. Globally, [we have] over 1500 studios. I mean, that's a massive success story. We just need to shift the narrative a little bit.' Inside the rise and fall of F45 From 2015 to 2021, few fitness chains could rival F45's hype, fuelled by Hollywood celebrities brought on to spruik the 45-minute sessions that combined high-intensity interval training, circuit training, and functional strength movements. Setting a target of 23,000 studios around the world, the empire was going to be ' bigger than McDonald's '. 'Investors could buy a gym and it would probably make money, and they probably didn't have to do much. The model was that good,' said Peter Day, a director of F45 Seaforth on Sydney's northern beaches and long-time franchisee. For local operators, the wheels started falling off once Gilchrist and co-founder Rob Deutsch – who each pocketed $US50 million in cash when Wahlberg and his investment vehicle MWIG bought a stake in 2019 – started turning their attention to overseas expansion. As part of its IPO ambitions, F45 moved its headquarters to Austin, Texas. A lot of staff went with it. Loading Communication and oversight dropped off some time after, multiple current and former franchisees said. 'More resources were getting thrown at the new studios being open in the US,' said Day. 'When you grow too quickly, you're making mistakes along the way because you probably haven't got tight processes in place,' said Stuart Maltese, who owns two studios in Melbourne's St Kilda. During that period, Tuifua noticed fewer check-ins on compliance. 'If you needed help, you would have to kick up a bit of a stink to get it.' Another fitness industry source, who requested anonymity to speak freely, described the explosion of studios as a 'house of cards'. Community-centred events, such as the F45 Playoffs – popular 10-minute fitness competitions held on Manly and Bondi beaches and accompanied by thumping electronic music and cheerleaders – dropped off. Some of the very celebrities who contributed to F45's success turned on it: Beckham and golfer Greg Norman sued, and ultimately settled with, F45 for breaching contract terms to pay out shares for the endorsement. In the pursuit of growth, F45 had oversold territories. Dozens of investor-owners who bought into the hype had purchased one or several studios thinking it would be an easy business investment, but hadn't built a strong enough community or the know-how to withstand lockdowns. The pandemic decimated dozens of gyms, F45 or otherwise, particularly those in the CBD. In the headlines, shuttered F45 studios were being linked to the turmoil unfolding in the US. 'A lot of them started to close down because they didn't have that heartbeat in the area. They didn't have that focus you need to run a business,' said Day. The negative media attention was a distraction from what was otherwise business as usual, he added. 'Mark Wahlberg, David Beckham, it doesn't matter. What [members] care about is, is it going to be good for them tomorrow? Are there going to be good trainers? Are they going to get welcomed by the name when they come in?' Members would ask trainers and studio owners what was going on in the US. 'I'd just say, it doesn't affect your burpees,' said Tuifua. F45, still headquartered in Texas, has been led by early investor Tom Dowd since March 2023. He has been openly critical of the team led by Gilchrist and Deutsch, whom he said were 'behaving like cowboys'. The pair drove F45's meteoric rise – and subsequent crash – based on projections F45 could sustain the breakneck rate of signing on 1000 new studios a year. 'People have questions, which is perfectly natural,' said Furminger. 'The best way to keep confidence is not to shy away from those questions. It's actually to lean into them and have the conversation and be as open and as transparent as we can, and genuinely, put our hands up and say, 'You're right. This has happened.' ' Has the company really stabilised? 'Marketing's doubled,' said Tuifua. 'I've got 50 or 60 more members than I had this time last year at Dee Why.' Seaforth's membership numbers, over 250, are at an all-time high. 'They've just [made] really smart, logical decisions,' Day said of F45's current leadership. The studio director and three-time Playoffs champion said he had turned down approaches from two rivals to switch brands for free and believes the fitness brand is more proactive than people realised, pointing to the volume of recipes, customised meal plans and innovation in the company's workouts. 'Yes, F45 took a hit, but they are still by a long shot the market leaders in this space,' he said. 'I think in 10 years' time, the brand which everyone will still know is F45.' 'The right to grow' At its peak, F45 had more than 600 studios in Australia. More than half of those have closed. 'That's a consolidation. We're actually OK with that,' said Furminger. 'We have to earn the right to grow, and in earning the right to grow, part of that process is to ensure that we have a strong performing network. That's where our primary focus is at the moment, to ensure that every one of our franchisees is performing well and making money,' he said. Furminger envisions reopening in locations that used to have an F45 studio. 'Will there be an opportunity for us to expand our network size in the future? Absolutely, 100 per cent.' As the pandemic reshaped workout habits, F45's highly publicised fall from grace left room for competitors such as Body Fit Training (BFT) to capture market share in the group fitness space. F45's response to the Pilates boom has been to launch FS8, a 45-minute group workout concept like its predecessor that is lower impact by blending Pilates, yoga and toning exercises. FS8's growth so far has been slow and stuttered, despite a high-profile launch with Australian surfer Mick Fanning, whose plan to open a studio in Byron Bay never materialised. The Manly studio, where Fanning announced the launch of FS8, has closed. As F45 battled a wall of bad publicity, the company initially tried to convince existing studio owners to embrace FS8, which Maltese said appealed to a very different market. 'It has its own identity that is still trying to find its way,' he said. Shaking off the past won't be easy. F45 is facing at least two class action lawsuits in the US, brought by law firms Barrack, Rodos & Bacine and Rosen Law Firm, for being misleading in its IPO documents that it said contained 'material misstatements and omissions'. F45 had floated on projections of signing on more franchisees who would own several studios rather than 'single-unit' owners, but didn't tell the market it was offering better payment terms to multi-unit franchisees, the class action complaints state. F45 declined to comment on legal matters. It will be hard for new management to avoid the shadow of Gilchrist, who was technically listed as bankrupt between 2011 and 2014, the period when F45 was founded, and departed the business with a $10 million golden handshake. Profit margins are being squeezed by fierce competition and cost-of-living pressures. Operating costs such as rent, staff, cleaning, maintenance and other bills have risen by 30 to 40 per cent over eight years, said Day. Franchisees pointed to some of F45's recent partnerships, which include Red Bull, fitness competition Hyrox, Strava and Kourtney Kardashian's wellness brand Poosh, as signs the brand was recovering. 'I think with all the marketing and all the new things we're doing, [F45] is definitely making a comeback,' Tuifua said.
AU Financial Review
04-06-2025
- Business
- AU Financial Review
Why Taylor Swift's catalogue win is a masterclass in business
Taylor Swift emerged triumphant after a years-long battle over the rights to her earlier music on the weekend. She now has complete control from the songs to packaging to distribution – and no corporate edicts to deal with. That would be enough cause for celebration, but reports say that she bought her catalogue for more than $US300 million ($464 million). For a Grammy award-winning, multi-platinum international superstar worth $US1.6 billion, that's pretty much a steal.
West Australian
30-05-2025
- Business
- West Australian
Global corporate travel a casualty of Donald Trump's war on trade
Optimism in the global business travel sector has dropped by more than half this year, according to a report published by the Global Business Travel Association. Positive sentiment fell from 67 per cent in November 2024 to 31 per cent in April 2025, according to the report which surveyed more than 900 business travel professionals on the affect of tariffs, tightened border policies and other US government policies announced this year. More than one in four respondents in Canada, the US and Europe said they felt 'pessimistic' or 'very pessimistic' about the industry outlook this year. However, 40 per cent of those surveyed said they felt neither positive nor negative. 'Since I have been in my role for four years, I haven't seen this high of a level of uncertainty,' Suzanne Neufang, the association's CEO, said. The survey showed nearly 30 per cent of business travel buyers anticipate their companies will reduce employee trips this year, while some 20 per cent said they weren't sure, it showed. 'They're not even confident enough to be able to say things will be fine or things won't be fine,' she said. Some 27 per cent of respondents also said they expect business travel spending to decrease as well. A third of business travel buyers said their companies have either changed, or are considering changing, policies regarding travel to or from the US, the report showed. Some 6 per cent said their companies had relocated events from the US to another country. 'From an APAC perspective, and certainly from a European perspective, maybe even LATAM, there's the opportunity to be the source of where these meetings take place,' Neufang said. 'There are many other opportunities to be a winner in this trade game.' Business travel professionals expressed several concerns about the potential for the long-term impact caused by decisions of the Trump Administration this year, led by worries over business travel costs (54 per cent) and problems processing visas (46 per cent). Global airfares, however, are slightly down — about $US17, or 2.2 per cent year-to-date — according to FCM Consulting, a division of the business travel company FCM Travel. Nevertheless, the global business travel market is still on track to top $US1.6 trillion by the end of 2025, Neufang said. However, she said that's only 'if the last 100 days don't impact negatively everywhere'. By 2028, the Global Business Travel Association expects, that number will cross the $US2tr mark, she said. She noted that while business travel volumes haven't returned to pre-pandemic levels, business travel spending fully recovered in 2024, partly as a result of inflation. But she said the trade war initiated by the Trump Administration could spell a bout of new business trips. 'During times of trade wars, business travel may actually increase for at least a period of time — for new partners to be found [and] new markets to be built,' she said. 'You lose a customer, you need to find another one. So I think that perspective doesn't mean all doom and gloom for us.' However, if tariffs remain elevated, 'There will definitely be an impact to U.S. travel ... But I think Europe, Asia, Europe to Asia, Asia to Europe. I think anywhere to Africa, all of those are probably fine.' Leisure travel to the United States has fallen in 2025. International visitor spending is projected to drop 4.7 per cent from 2024, representing some $8.5 billion for the U.S. travel industry, in a year revenues were once widely expected to grow. CNBC
