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GMA Network
2 days ago
- Business
- GMA Network
World Bank sees upper-middle income status for PH in 2027
The Philippines' elevation to upper-middle income economy (UMIC) status might take longer than expected as global uncertainties put pressure on the country's economic growth, according to Washington-based multilateral lender World Bank. 'The UMIC status is actually an inevitability; it will happen. The question is when? Is it possible to happen in 2026? It's possible, [but] we really think… that it will take a little bit longer. Probably, it will happen in 2027,' World Bank lead economist Gonzalo Varela said at a press conference in Makati City on Thursday. 'With the economy growing a little bit slower than we thought in the past six months, it will take a little bit longer,' Varela said. Nonetheless, World Bank senior country economist Jaffar Al-Rikabi said that 'it is far less important exactly which date it will [happen]… the country graduates in this somewhat arbitrary threshold.' 'Much more important is that the economy continues to grow and continues to create good jobs,' Al-Rikabi said. The Philippines remains a lower-middle income economy, as its gross national income (GNI) per capita at $3,950 in 2022 fell within the World Bank's bracket for lower-middle-income economies, $1,136–$4,465, which was raised from $1,086–$4,255 a year ago. GNI per capita measures the country's total income divided by its population. For fiscal year 2024, the World Bank classifies low-income economies as those with a GNI per capita of $1,135 or less in 2022; lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $1,136 and $4,465; upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $4,466 and $13,845; and high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $13,845 or more. Currently, the Philippines is joined in the lower-middle income bracket by Vietnam ($4,010 GNI per capita), Laos ($2,360), Cambodia ($1,700), and Myanmar ($1,210). It trailed behind its neighbors, which are in the upper-middle income level: Malaysia ($11,780), Thailand ($7,230), and Indonesia ($4,580). Singapore ($67,200) and Brunei ($31,410) are in the high-income bracket. The Marcos administration's chief economist, Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, earlier expressed confidence that the country would graduate to UMIC status by 2026, as he was optimistic that the economy would expand by 6% for the entire 2025. The economy grew by 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025. In the June 2025 edition of its Philippines Economic Update, the World Bank is projecting that the Philippine economy—as measured by gross domestic product (GDP)—will grow by 5.3% in 2025, slower than the actual economic growth rate of 5.7% seen in 2024 and also below the low end of the government's goal for the year (6% to 7%). Al-Rikabi said that the conservative growth projection was due to ''global policy uncertainty.'' 'The impact of what's happening externally has resulted in exports doing less well, services growth decelerating, and industry decelerating,' Al-Rikabi said. In its report, the multilateral lender highlighted that 'escalating regional conflicts may result in elevated commodity prices and impact global shipping and logistics prices.' The World Bank also issued policy and structural reform recommendations for the Philippines to support its medium-term growth: Tax reforms, including closing tax policy and compliance gaps to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio Reforms to improve efficiency of expenditure—including strengthening public financial management, public procurement, and public investment management Lowering deficits in line with the medium-term fiscal framework Invest in the infrastructure foundation necessary for jobs—with a focus on connectivity infrastructure and skills gaps. Streamline business regulations and improve the business environment. Mobilize private capital to complement public funds. 'The Philippines would benefit from fiscal reforms to support medium-term stabilization and structural reforms to safeguard and accelerate growth,' Al-Rikabi said. 'Boosting private growth and job creation can help the Philippines mitigate the impact of global policy uncertainty,' he said. —VBL, GMA Integrated News
Business Recorder
06-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Pakistan's threshold: World Bank fixes new poverty lines at $4.20/person/ day
ISLAMABAD: The new poverty lines for Pakistan — a lower middle-income country, set at $4.20/person/day up from $3.65/person/day, affecting 44.7 percent of the population rose from 39.8 percent, says the World Bank in its updated international poverty lines by increasing the threshold. The extreme poverty line is now $3/person/day, impacting 16.5 per cent of the population, up from 4.9 per cent under the previous $2.15 threshold. The upper-middle-income poverty line is $8.30/person/day, covering 88.4per cent of the population. Adjusting for purchasing power parities (PPPs) and inflation, the real value of the international poverty lines increases by 28per cent, 5per cent and 11per cent for the lower income countries (LIC), lower-middle-income countries (LMIC) and upper-middle-income countries (UMIC) thresholds, respectively. Pakistan's poverty rate to stand at 42.4%: World Bank The updates to the international poverty lines (IPL) are based on 2021 PPP data from the International Comparison Program (ICP) and ensure that poverty estimates remain accurate and comparable across countries. Christina Wieser, senior economist, Poverty and Equity Global Practice, World Bank, along with Tobias Haque, lead country economist for World Bank Pakistan, while briefing media said that thebank is updating its global poverty lines to reflect changes in the cost of living and consumption habits of people around the world, based on newly available data. As price levels and the cost of basic needs across the world and within income groups evolve, global poverty lines are periodically updated to allow for global comparisons, Wieser added. The new poverty lines are $3 per person per day for LIC, $4.20 for LMIC, and $8.30 for UMIC. These lines are based on 2021 purchasing power parity rates, as well as updated national poverty lines. For Pakistan, 16.5 per cent of the population lived below the $3 international poverty rate in 2018-19 (latest available survey year); and 44.7 per cent below the more relevant lower-middle-income line of $4.20. The revision does not suggest that poverty in Pakistan has worsened as living standards of the population have not changed to what was previously reported. The change in international poverty rates merely reflects a higher threshold for being 'non-poor,' based on improved consumption measurement across low-income countries; changes to LMIC and UMIC lines, where data is of relatively high quality, may reflect an increase in the value of poverty lines as countries become richer. IPL should be used only for cross-country comparison and analysis; for evaluating poverty in a particular country (Pakistan), the national poverty line remains the appropriate standard. The new IPL only affects the level of poverty, trends in poverty remain unchanged. Pakistan is among the countries experiencing the largest changes in poverty when transitioning to the 2021 PPPs based on the Low-Income International Poverty Line. This significant shift in poverty rates under the LIC line, compared to the LMIC and Upper-Middle-Income Country (UMIC) lines, is due to a concentration of households with welfare levels between $PPP2.15 and $PPP3, which is near the International Poverty Line. The need for new international poverty lines arises from the evolving price levels and cost of basic needs across the world and within income groups. To maintain accurate global comparisons, the World Bank periodically updates these poverty lines. International poverty estimates are based on the headcount of people with consumption below the international poverty line, defined in PPPs. Christina Wieser said the update of poverty estimates from 2017 PPP to 2021 PPP, and the new lines, preserves the trends observed in Pakistan, but with higher levels, including in World Bank projected estimates from 2019-2025. The new lines reflect 3 key updates at the global level including New and improved Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) factors, Improved data quality and greater accuracy in welfare measures and Updated values of national poverty lines reflecting current definitions. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
