Latest news with #TrefisReinforcedValue
Forbes
18-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Do Hertz's Fundamentals Justify The 2x Move?
Hertz Global (NASDAQ:HTZ) stock doubled in just two days following the disclosure of a $46.5 million stake by Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Holdings. This jump is interesting, especially considering that activist investors often aim to drive significant improvements in targeted companies. However, this raises a critical question: do Hertz's fundamentals support such a large move, and is HTZ stock a buy now? We believe it is not. Trefis Despite its seemingly low valuation, we find HTZ stock risky and unattractive at its current price of around $8. Our conclusion is based on an analysis comparing the stock's current valuation with the company's operating performance over recent years and its current and historical financial condition. This evaluation, across key parameters of Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience, reveals very weak operating performance and financial health for Hertz said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative - having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Going by what you pay per dollar of sales or profit, HTZ stock looks cheap compared to the broader market. Hertz Global's Revenues have declined marginally over recent years. Hertz Global's profit margins are much worse than most companies in the Trefis coverage universe. Hertz Global's balance sheet looks very weak. HTZ stock has fared much worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during the recent 2022 economic downturn. While investors have their fingers crossed for a soft landing by the U.S. economy, how bad can things get if there is another recession? Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash captures how key stocks fared during and after the last six market crashes. In summary, Hertz Global's performance across the parameters detailed above are as follows: Looking ahead, Hertz faces significant challenges that reinforce our view that the stock is unattractive, despite its low valuation. The company is expected to achieve only low-single-digit average sales growth over the next three years and is projected to remain in a loss position this year. Analyst sentiment is also notably bearish, with an average price estimate of just $3 per share – a significant discount of over 60% from the current $8 price. These factors, combined with the company's very weak performance across key fundamental parameters, solidify our conclusion that HTZ is not a good stock to buy now. While you would do well to avoid HTZ stock for now, you could explore the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid- and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
Forbes
16-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
What's Next For JBHT Stock?
UKRAINE - 2021/05/08: In this photo illustration, the J.B. Hunt logo of the American transportation ... More and logistics company seen on a smartphone and on a pc screen. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Following the release of its Q1 results, JB Hunt Transport Services stock traded lower on Wednesday, April 16th. Although the trucking company reported first-quarter revenue of $2.92 billion and earnings per share of $1.17—both slightly above analysts' estimates of $2.91 billion in sales and $1.15 EPS—these figures marked a year-over-year decline. Investors were concerned by management's remarks about tariff-related demand pressures and rising costs. We believe JBHT stock, which is currently priced near $125, poses a risky investment. However, this elevated risk has contributed to its low valuation, potentially making it appealing to investors comfortable with volatility. Our view is based on a comparison of JBHT's current valuation against its operating metrics over the years, along with a review of its financial health. Our analysis—spanning Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience—highlights operational and financial weaknesses, as detailed below. In terms of sales or profit multiples, JBHT stock appears slightly undervalued relative to the broader market. JB Hunt Transport Services' Revenues have declined in recent years. JB Hunt Transport Services' margins are subpar relative to peers in the Trefis universe. The company's balance sheet appears relatively weak. JBHT has shown slightly better performance than the S&P 500 during select downturns. For a detailed analysis, check our dashboard How Low Can JB Hunt Transport Services Stock Go In A Market Crash? and our overview of market crashes. Here's how JB Hunt Transport Services scores across our framework: Although JBHT demonstrates underperformance across several metrics, its historical resilience and current low valuation—potentially reflecting near-term risks like tariffs—suggest a possible upside. In our view, this may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors. For those with lower risk tolerance, a hedged approach within a diversified portfolio, such as the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark, might offer a smoother ride while still capturing potential upside. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid- and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
Forbes
16-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Up 12% In A Week, What's Happening With AVGO Stock?
Illustration of BROADCOM, France, March 7, 2025. (Photo by Riccardo Milani / Hans Lucas / Hans ... More Lucas via AFP) (Photo by RICCARDO MILANI/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images) Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) stock has risen 12% over the past five days due to two key developments: a broader market rebound after President Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, and the company's announcement of a $10 billion share buyback program. Despite the recent gains, AVGO is still down over 20% this year. Such fluctuations are not unusual for the stock—AVGO fell 36% during the 2022 inflation-driven downturn and dropped 48% during the COVID-19-related market selloff in 2020. However, for investors seeking a potentially more stable and high-performing alternative, consider the Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which includes 30 stocks with a strong record of consistently outperforming the S&P 500 over the past four years. Broadcom's key financial indicators highlight its strong foundation: For long-term investors, the recent decline in AVGO stock could offer a compelling entry point, considering the company's solid fundamentals and AI leadership. Those sensitive to volatility should consider hedging, consulting a financial advisor, or diversification, such as the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark to produce strong returns for investors. A calm, strategic approach is crucial for wealth generation during market volatility. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
Forbes
15-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
What's Happening With Boeing Stock?
AVALON, VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA - 2025/03/25: The logo of Boeing, an American civil and military ... More aviation brand, is seen displayed. (Photo by Alexander Bogatyrev/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Boeing (NYSE:BA) stock is trending lower on Tuesday April 15, after Bloomberg reported that China has ordered its airlines to stop accepting any more Boeing aircraft. This decision appears to be a retaliatory measure in the trade war with the U.S., which has seen President Donald Trump impose tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese products. We view Boeing stock around $160 as an unattractive investment. Despite a seemingly moderate valuation, our analysis reveals significant concerns due to the company's weak operating performance and financial condition. This assessment is based on a comparison of its current valuation with its recent operating history and overall financial health across key areas like Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience, the details of which follow. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative - having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Going by what you pay per dollar of sales or profit, BA stock looks cheap compared to the broader market. Boeing's Revenues have fallen over recent years. Boeing's profit margins are considerably worse than most companies in the Trefis coverage universe. Boeing's balance sheet looks fine. BA stock has fared much worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during some of the recent downturns. Worried about the impact of a market crash on BA stock? Our dashboard How Low Can Boeing Stock Go In A Market Crash? has a detailed analysis of how the stock performed during and after previous market crashes. In summary, Boeing's performance across the parameters detailed above are as follows: Despite its seemingly low valuation, we maintain our view that Boeing's stock is unattractive and not a good investment. This stance is further supported by ongoing tariff issues and China's recent retaliatory measures, which include instructing Chinese airlines to cease accepting Boeing aircraft deliveries. These factors are expected to negatively impact the company's stock price in the near term. While you would do well to avoid BA stock for now, you could explore the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid- and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
Forbes
12-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Does UPST Stock's 35% Fall Make It A Buy At $40?
Trefis Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST), an AI lending platform, has experienced a significant stock decline of nearly 35% this year. This downturn is primarily driven by growing anxieties surrounding the broader economic outlook. Specifically, President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs on goods from over 100 countries has heightened concerns about negative repercussions for the U.S. economy and consumer spending. These concerns are further amplified by China's retaliatory tariffs, escalating the situation into a global trade war that has introduced significant volatility into global markets. Consequently, these macroeconomic headwinds pose several challenges for UPST. Firstly, persistent inflation could hinder the U.S. Federal Reserve from implementing further interest rate cuts, which would negatively impact Upstart's lending business. Secondly, a potential economic recession would likely diminish demand for the company's financial services. Given these concerns and UPST's current high valuation around $40, we believe the stock appears unattractive and represents a poor investment choice at this time. We arrive at this by comparing Upstart's current valuation with its operating performance over recent years, as well as its current and historical financial condition. Our analysis, which considers key parameters such as Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience, indicates that the company currently exhibits a moderate operating performance and financial condition, as detailed in our full analysis. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative - having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Going by what you pay per dollar of sales or profit, UPST stock looks expensive compared to the broader market. Upstart's Revenues have seen notable growth over recent years. Upstart's profit margins are worse than most companies in the Trefis coverage universe. Upstart's balance sheet looks strong. UPST stock has fared much worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during the 2022 downturn. While investors have their fingers crossed for a soft landing by the U.S. economy, how bad can things get if there is another recession? Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash captures how key stocks fared during and after the last six market crashes. In summary, Upstart's performance across the parameters detailed above are as follows: Despite Upstart's seemingly neutral performance when considering the above factors, its very high valuation makes us believe the stock is not a good buy at its current price. While you would do well to avoid UPST stock for now, you could explore the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid- and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
