Latest news with #TreasuryONE
IOL News
a day ago
- Business
- IOL News
South Africans face currency shock as rand stays stagnant against US dollar
Many South Africans were hopeful that their local currency would mirror this decline, allowing them to capitalise on the weakening greenback Image: Armand Hough/Independent Media South Africans who expected to score massively from the fact that the greenback has lost 10% against every other major currency this year are set for a sore surprise because the rand has barely budged against the dollar year-on-year. In fact, investors would have been better off putting R10,000 into pounds or even euros, with euros having provided the best return of R555.67 – or 5.6% year-on-year, IOL's calculations show. Based on a linear equation that doesn't include transaction costs, fees, or reinvestment of gains, the pound would have provided a return of R405.12, or 4.1%. While the rand had been gaining against the US currency given the greenback's weakness, the exchange rate went over R18 to the dollar again this week – effectively on par with a year ago. As a result, a R10,000 investment into the dollar would provide a negative return. Andre Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE, explained that the rand had lost ground as the dollar firmed and there was uncertainty over any US military action against Iran, which is keeping the local currency on the back foot for now. US President Donald Trump has variously indicated he would support Isreal in its fight against Iran, while also stating that this may not happen. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ Bloomberg data indicated that, since Trump was inaugurated for his second term on January 20, the greenback has declined in value against the euro, pound and Swiss franc. This, it stated, was due to Trump's tariffs and his insistence that Federal Reserve Chaiman Jerome Powell lower interest rates. The Fed voted overnight to keep rates unchanged, the same position for all of 2025 so far. The last time the dollar plunged this much and this fast was in 2010 when the US Federal Reserve pumped more money into the economy to help deal with the ravages of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Bloomberg data showed. South Africa's rand is notoriously volatile. IOL
Reuters
2 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
South African rand edges up before local inflation and retail sales data
JOHANNESBURG, June 18 (Reuters) - The South African rand edged up in early trade on Wednesday ahead of the release of domestic inflation and retail sales data, as investors also awaited an interest rates decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve later in the day. At 0637 GMT, the rand traded at 17.9350 against the dollar , about 0.6% firmer than Tuesday's close. The risk sensitive currency fell more than 1% on Tuesday as hostilities between Israel and Iran led investors towards safe assets, dulling the appeal of the local currency. Although it has showed signs of stabilising, "further gains are likely to be limited until after today's Fed decision," Andre Cilliers, Currency Strategist at TreasuryONE, said. Before that, South Africa-focussed investors will look to the monthly consumer price index data (ZACPIY=ECI), opens new tab due at 0800 GMT and retail sales data (ZARET=ECI), opens new tab two hours later to gauge the health of Africa's most industrialised economy. Economists polled by Reuters estimate inflation to have remained steady 2.8% in May, while retail sales are expected to have increased 3.1% in April. Nedbank economists said in a research note they expect consumer inflation to ease to 2.3% year-on-year in May and forecast a growth of 1.7% in retail sales, saying they would be "supported by the more subdued inflationary environment, lower interest rates and easing debt service costs, which has lifted real wages and discretionary spending". South Africa's benchmark 2035 government bond was little changed in early deals, with the yield down 0.5 basis points to 10.105%.
IOL News
3 days ago
- Business
- IOL News
Gold dips despite escalating Israel-Iran conflict as volatility looms
Gold, traditionally a safe haven for investors, has seen its value drop below $3,400 amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Experts warn of increased market volatility as geopolitical conflicts unfold. Image: File photo Gold – the metal investors flee to in times of turmoil – slipped below its Friday close on Tuesday even as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated and market watchers warned of more volatility. The precious metal, long seen as a safe place to store money, was trading at around $3,394.49 as of lunch time on Tuesday, down 0.08% on its opening price. Andre Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE, said in a note that gold had dropped below Friday's close of $3,450 level despite these geopolitical tensions. The metal is still off its $3 500 record high in April. Cilliers said that US President Donald Trump's warning to Iranians to evacuate Tehran has raised fears of an escalation in the Iran/Israel conflict and is keeping markets on edge. 'Iran has warned that it will unleash the biggest ballistic missile attack on Israel in the next few days while Israel is targeting government facilities,' he noted. Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global, has also cautioned that there may be 'heightened volatility as markets react to fast-moving developments in the Middle East.' Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ Information from axi indicated that gold was worth just under $19 an ounce in the years between 1833 and 1849, only moving above $1,000 in 2010. It stated that gold rose dramatically in January 1980, 'reacting not only to high inflation but also to geopolitical tensions with the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet Invasion in Afghanistan'. During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, the metal soared more than 50% in just nine months to $1,011 an ounce. Concerns over the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic pushed the metal past $2,000 and it pushed higher again in 2023 when central banks started a rate-hiking cycle. On Monday, the rand closed 1.7% stronger at R17.81, even though trade was thin due to the holiday. It opened at R17.82, and was trading at R17.83. Cilliers expected a range of R17.70/R17.90 as traders watch the Middle East developments. IOL
IOL News
3 days ago
- Business
- IOL News
Gold dips despite escalating Israel-Iran conflict as volatility looms
Gold, traditionally a safe haven for investors, has seen its value drop below $3,400 amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Experts warn of increased market volatility as geopolitical conflicts unfold. Image: File photo Gold – the metal investors flee to in times of turmoil – slipped below its Friday close on Tuesday even as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated and market watchers warned of more volatility. The precious metal, long seen as a safe place to store money, was trading at around $3,394.49 as of lunch time on Tuesday, down 0.08% on its opening price. Andre Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE, said in a note that gold had dropped below Friday's close of $3,450 level despite these geopolitical tensions. The metal is still off its $3 500 record high in April. Cilliers said that US President Donald Trump's warning to Iranians to evacuate Tehran has raised fears of an escalation in the Iran/Israel conflict and is keeping markets on edge. 'Iran has warned that it will unleash the biggest ballistic missile attack on Israel in the next few days while Israel is targeting government facilities,' he noted. Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global, has also cautioned that there may be 'heightened volatility as markets react to fast-moving developments in the Middle East.' Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad loading Information from axi indicated that gold was worth just under $19 an ounce in the years between 1833 and 1849, only moving above $1,000 in 2010. It stated that gold rose dramatically in January 1980, 'reacting not only to high inflation but also to geopolitical tensions with the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet Invasion in Afghanistan'. During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, the metal soared more than 50% in just nine months to $1,011 an ounce. Concerns over the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic pushed the metal past $2,000 and it pushed higher again in 2023 when central banks started a rate-hiking cycle. On Monday, the rand closed 1.7% stronger at R17.81, even though trade was thin due to the holiday. It opened at R17.82, and was trading at R17.83. Cilliers expected a range of R17.70/R17.90 as traders watch the Middle East developments. IOL
The Star
09-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
Despite 0. 1% growth in Q1, the rand held firm below R18 to the dollar
Nicola Mawson | Published 4 days ago As of lunchtime on Wednesday, it was trading at R17.83, remaining range bound in the tight R17.75 to R18.05 bracket, Andre Cilliers, Currency Strategist at TreasuryONE indicated. Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global, noted earlier on Wednesday morning that the currency was at R17.85. Image: Pixabay Despite South Africa's economy growing at a measly 0.1% in the first quarter of this year, the local currency was unmoved and continues to trade at levels below R18 to the dollar. As of lunchtime on Wednesday, it was trading at R17.83, remaining range bound in the tight R17.75 to R18.05 bracket, Andre Cilliers, Currency Strategist at TreasuryONE indicated. Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global, noted earlier on Wednesday morning that the currency was at R17.85. Cilliers said the dismal gross domestic product (GDP) data hasn't dented the local currency, with it taking its lead from a weaker dollar instead. Overall, Tuesday's print of GDP data was better than expected by several economists, most of which noted that this was due to the agricultural sector performing well. Nolan Wapenaar, co-chief investment officer at Anchor Capital, explained that much of the production data and economic data that had already been had been pointing to a poor GDP print. 'In some ways, agriculture saved the day for the GDP numbers,' he said. Maarten Ackerman, chief economist and advisory partner at Citadel, said that the 'latest GDP figure paints a familiar picture: a few resilient sectors keeping the economy afloat, while structural underperformance holds us back. Without meaningful and coordinated reform, the economy will continue to limp along, unable to meaningfully reduce unemployment or address pressing social challenges.' Wapenaar added that the rand was not really impacted by numbers that were as expected. Earlier this week, Investec chief economist, Annabel Bishop, noted that the rand 'is not expected to strengthen to its fair value of close to R16 until the fundamentals for economic growth improve in South Africa'. The rand had been benefitting from a weaker dollar, which Bishop had previously said was a deliberate trade tactic by US President Donald Trump. His vacillatory position on tariffs has led to several knee-jerk market reactions. Trump's latest move – which follows trade negations including with President Cyril Ramaphosa – was to double the tariffs on steel and aluminium from 25% to 50%. In a statement on the White House website, he said he was doing this 'so that such imports will not threaten to impair the national security'. Wapenaar said the rand's relative strength was 'also a case of the markets being rather preoccupied with the White House' and what is happening there, which means that other data prints are less impactful than they might otherwise be'. IOL
