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Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Is a Recession Coming or Not? Here Are Both Sides of the Coin
The debate over whether the U.S. is heading into a recession in 2025 is intensifying, with economists, policymakers and business leaders offering conflicting perspectives. While some indicators suggest an economic downturn is imminent, others point to resilience and potential for continued growth. Is a recession coming or not? Here are both sides of the coin. Trending Now: For You: According to Trading Economics, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first decline since early 2022. In addition, a PNC Bank analysis found that consumer spending has also slowed to 0.3% after a 3.7% increase in March as consumers attempted to get ahead of anticipated tariffs. Check Out: President Trump's tariff policies have led to increased import costs, contributing to inflation and supply chain disruptions. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an international body that monitors global economic trends, has downgraded U.S. growth projections to 1.6% for 2025, citing these trade policies as a significant drag on the economy. At a recent meeting, Federal Reserve officials said the job market was anticipated to deteriorate significantly, with the unemployment rate projected to rise above the staff's estimate of its natural level by the end of this year and stay elevated beyond that natural rate until at least 2027. Additionally, CEO confidence has plummeted, with 83% predicting a recession within the next 12 to 18 months, according to a survey by The Conference Board, a non-profit research organization. The organization's Leading Economic Index (LEI) is widely used to predict the direction of the U.S. economy. According to J.P. Morgan data, the yield curve inversion, a traditional recession predictor, has persisted since July 2022. While its reliability is debated, the New York Fed's model estimates a 51% probability of a recession starting within a year, with a confidence interval ranging from 39% to 64%. Despite concerns, the labor market remains robust, with unemployment at 4.2% and continued job growth, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer spending, a key economic driver, has shown resilience, supporting the argument against an immediate recession. For example, data from the Washington Retail Association showed that in March, retail sales increased by 1.4%, driven by higher spending on cars, dining out and apparel. The Federal Reserve has maintained steady interest rates, balancing concerns over inflation and economic growth. 'The U.S. economy is still on a firm footing, but uncertainty has notably increased since the beginning of the year. In this environment, monetary policy will need to carefully balance our dual-mandate goals of price stability and maximum employment,' Federal Reserve Board Member Lisa Cook said at a recent meeting. Some economists suggest the U.S. may be experiencing a 'vibecession,' where negative public sentiment does not align with economic fundamentals, according to ClearBridge. This disconnect implies that while people feel pessimistic, the economy may not be in an actual recession. While official declarations of recession rely on two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, some economists argue that the reality of a downturn is already unfolding, both in data and in everyday life. 'Although there are still some economic sectors where activity remains and this may create the illusion of stability because the real situation remains tense,' said Julia Khandoshko, CEO of Mind Money. 'Everything that happens with debts and bonds exerts systemic pressure. Many people think that there is no recession until it is announced. This is a big mistake. In fact, when it is officially recognized, everything will be felt in the wallet for a long time,' Khandoshko explained. As uncertainty grows, Khandoshko said the smartest move is to prepare for a recession rather than trying to predict it. 'Think in advance how to reduce unnecessary expenses, postpone major purchases, try to reduce debts and form your safe haven,' she said. 'Because if everything goes according to a bad scenario, the speed at which the situation will change will be high.' Editor's note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on More From GOBankingRates 3 Luxury SUVs That Will Have Massive Price Drops in Summer 2025 The 5 Car Brands Named the Least Reliable of 2025 10 Unreliable SUVs To Stay Away From Buying This article originally appeared on Is a Recession Coming or Not? Here Are Both Sides of the Coin Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
05-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
This Woman Is Showing The Effects Of The Tariff War In China, And Hooooo Boy You Are Not Ready For This
Here in the US, we're experiencing the effects of President Trump's tariff wars every single day as prices continue going up. If you're wondering how the tariffs are affecting people in other countries, Emily ( a Canadian living in China, recently shared a video explaining exactly how things have changed for her in the grocery store over there. Emily's video starts out, "Hello from China. So, I'm in a grocery store right now, and I wanted to show you how the American tariffs are affecting Chinese customers." @ / Via "So, I was gonna get some beef for dinner tonight, and I saw this," she says, holding up a package of beef. "What used to be here is American beef. But now, as you can see, it says Australian beef." @ / Via "And I did look around," she added. "I couldn't find one single pack of beef from America. So I guess China just stopped buying beef from America, and it went straight to Australia." @ / Via "The whole idea that China is hurting because of the American tariffs? Well, they're not, because they are not as dependent on the US. In fact, only 18% of Chinese imports come from America. And for stuff like beef and soy, they can just go somewhere else easily." @ / Via Trading Economics says that the number is even lower than Emily suggested, putting the percentage of China's imports that come from the US at around 7% in 2023. According to the USDA, the US exported $1.58 billion worth of beef to China in 2024. Reuters also notes that in 2022, "soybeans were the No. 1 U.S. product imported by China," but that "the U.S. has lost competitive advantage to Brazil." "So I guess I'm having Australian beef for dinner tonight instead of American beef," Emily continued. "And honestly, because of the food quality, I probably trust Australian beef better." "And this box of beef right here is 50 RMB, which is about $7 USD." "So to answer the question, China ain't hurting. And if anything, I think we're probably doing even better because now [we have] better beef that tastes better and at a better price." @ / Via "So, thank you, Trump, for that," she concluded. Unsurprisingly, commenters had a lot to say on the topic. "USA put sanctions on themselves," one said. "No country is hurting apart from the US," said another. "I don't see China going back to the USA for those products in the next 4 years. Sadly a lot of American farmers are big fans of Trump." The video even made its way over to Twitter (now known as X), where even more people shared their opinions. "So Trump trying to beef up American exports, actually lead to losing customers to export to," said one. "Our tariff tiff countries have other options. America isn't the only trade partner in the world. We're even less desirable now because we aren't trusted." "There's nothing the United States can offer that the rest of the world doesn't already have. Except for serial killers and deep-fried hot dogs." You can watch Emily's full video below, and follow her over on TikTok. What do you think? Were you surprised to learn how the tariffs are affecting people in other countries? Let us know in the comments.
Yahoo
04-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
This Woman Is Showing The Effects Of The Tariff War In China, And Hooooo Boy You Are Not Ready For This
Here in the US, we're experiencing the effects of President Trump's tariff wars every single day as prices continue going up. If you're wondering how the tariffs are affecting people in other countries, Emily ( a Canadian living in China, recently shared a video explaining exactly how things have changed for her in the grocery store over there. Emily's video starts out, "Hello from China. So, I'm in a grocery store right now, and I wanted to show you how the American tariffs are affecting Chinese customers." @ / Via "So, I was gonna get some beef for dinner tonight, and I saw this," she says, holding up a package of beef. "What used to be here is American beef. But now, as you can see, it says Australian beef." @ / Via "And I did look around," she added. "I couldn't find one single pack of beef from America. So I guess China just stopped buying beef from America, and it went straight to Australia." @ / Via "The whole idea that China is hurting because of the American tariffs? Well, they're not, because they are not as dependent on the US. In fact, only 18% of Chinese imports come from America. And for stuff like beef and soy, they can just go somewhere else easily." @ / Via Trading Economics says that the number is even lower than Emily suggested, putting the percentage of China's imports that come from the US at around 7% in 2023. According to the USDA, the US exported $1.58 billion worth of beef to China in 2024. Reuters also notes that in 2022, "soybeans were the No. 1 U.S. product imported by China," but that "the U.S. has lost competitive advantage to Brazil." "So I guess I'm having Australian beef for dinner tonight instead of American beef," Emily continued. "And honestly, because of the food quality, I probably trust Australian beef better." "And this box of beef right here is 50 RMB, which is about $7 USD." "So to answer the question, China ain't hurting. And if anything, I think we're probably doing even better because now [we have] better beef that tastes better and at a better price." @ / Via "So, thank you, Trump, for that," she concluded. Unsurprisingly, commenters had a lot to say on the topic. "USA put sanctions on themselves," one said. "No country is hurting apart from the US," said another. "I don't see China going back to the USA for those products in the next 4 years. Sadly a lot of American farmers are big fans of Trump." The video even made its way over to Twitter (now known as X), where even more people shared their opinions. "So Trump trying to beef up American exports, actually lead to losing customers to export to," said one. "Our tariff tiff countries have other options. America isn't the only trade partner in the world. We're even less desirable now because we aren't trusted." "There's nothing the United States can offer that the rest of the world doesn't already have. Except for serial killers and deep-fried hot dogs." You can watch Emily's full video below, and follow her over on TikTok. What do you think? Were you surprised to learn how the tariffs are affecting people in other countries? Let us know in the comments.
Yahoo
04-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
"Thank You, Trump": This Woman's Viral Video Shows Exactly How The Tariff War Is Playing Out In China
Here in the US, we're experiencing the effects of President Trump's tariff wars every single day as prices continue going up. If you're wondering how the tariffs are affecting people in other countries, Emily ( a Canadian living in China, recently shared a video explaining exactly how things have changed for her in the grocery store over there. Emily's video starts out, "Hello from China. So, I'm in a grocery store right now, and I wanted to show you how the American tariffs are affecting Chinese customers." @ / Via "So, I was gonna get some beef for dinner tonight, and I saw this," she says, holding up a package of beef. "What used to be here is American beef. But now, as you can see, it says Australian beef." @ / Via "And I did look around," she added. "I couldn't find one single pack of beef from America. So I guess China just stopped buying beef from America, and it went straight to Australia." @ / Via "The whole idea that China is hurting because of the American tariffs? Well, they're not, because they are not as dependent on the US. In fact, only 18% of Chinese imports come from America. And for stuff like beef and soy, they can just go somewhere else easily." @ / Via Trading Economics says that the number is even lower than Emily suggested, putting the percentage of China's imports that come from the US at around 7% in 2023. According to the USDA, the US exported $1.58 billion worth of beef to China in 2024. Reuters also notes that in 2022, "soybeans were the No. 1 U.S. product imported by China," but that "the U.S. has lost competitive advantage to Brazil." "So I guess I'm having Australian beef for dinner tonight instead of American beef," Emily continued. "And honestly, because of the food quality, I probably trust Australian beef better." "And this box of beef right here is 50 RMB, which is about $7 USD." "So to answer the question, China ain't hurting. And if anything, I think we're probably doing even better because now [we have] better beef that tastes better and at a better price." @ / Via "So, thank you, Trump, for that," she concluded. Unsurprisingly, commenters had a lot to say on the topic. "USA put sanctions on themselves," one said. "No country is hurting apart from the US," said another. "I don't see China going back to the USA for those products in the next 4 years. Sadly a lot of American farmers are big fans of Trump." The video even made its way over to Twitter (now known as X), where even more people shared their opinions. "So Trump trying to beef up American exports actually lead to losing customers to export to," said one. "Our tariff tiff countries have other options. America isn't the only trade partner in the world. We're even less desirable now because we aren't trusted." "There's nothing the United States can offer that the rest of the world doesn't already have. Except for serial killers and deep-fried hot dogs." You can watch Emily's full video below, and follow her over on TikTok. What do you think? Were you surprised to learn how the tariffs are affecting people in other countries? Let us know in the comments.
Buzz Feed
04-06-2025
- Business
- Buzz Feed
Woman Shares Effects Of Tariff War On China
Here in the US, we're experiencing the effects of President Trump's tariff wars every single day as prices continue going up. If you're wondering how the tariffs are affecting people in other countries, Emily ( a Canadian living in China, recently shared a video explaining exactly how things have changed for her in the grocery store over there. Emily's video starts out, "Hello from China. So, I'm in a grocery store right now, and I wanted to show you how the American tariffs are affecting Chinese customers." "So, I was gonna get some beef for dinner tonight, and I saw this," she says, holding up a package of beef. "What used to be here is American beef. But now, as you can see, it says Australian beef." "And I did look around," she added. "I couldn't find one single pack of beef from America. So I guess China just stopped buying beef from America, and it went straight to Australia." "The whole idea that China is hurting because of the American tariffs? Well, they're not, because they are not as dependent on the US. In fact, only 18% of Chinese imports come from America. And for stuff like beef and soy, they can just go somewhere else easily." Trading Economics says that the number is even lower than Emily suggested, putting the percentage of China's imports that come from the US at around 7% in to the USDA, the US exported $1.58 billion worth of beef to China in 2024. Reuters also notes that in 2022, "soybeans were the No. 1 U.S. product imported by China," but that "the U.S. has lost competitive advantage to Brazil." "So I guess I'm having Australian beef for dinner tonight instead of American beef," Emily continued. "And honestly, because of the food quality, I probably trust Australian beef better." "And this box of beef right here is 50 RMB, which is about $7 USD." "So to answer the question, China ain't hurting. And if anything, I think we're probably doing even better because now [we have] better beef that tastes better and at a better price." "So, thank you, Trump, for that," she concluded. Unsurprisingly, commenters had a lot to say on the topic. "USA put sanctions on themselves," one said. "No country is hurting apart from the US," said another. "I don't see China going back to the USA for those products in the next 4 years. Sadly a lot of American farmers are big fans of Trump." The video even made its way over to Twitter (now known as X), where even more people shared their opinions. "So Trump trying to beef up American exports actually lead to losing customers to export to," said one. "Our tariff tiff countries have other options. America isn't the only trade partner in the world. We're even less desirable now because we aren't trusted." "There's nothing the United States can offer that the rest of the world doesn't already have. Except for serial killers and deep-fried hot dogs." What do you think? Were you surprised to learn how the tariffs are affecting people in other countries? Let us know in the comments.
