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Fed in ‘Nothing to See Here' Mode: BlackRock's Rosenberg
Fed in ‘Nothing to See Here' Mode: BlackRock's Rosenberg

Bloomberg

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Fed in ‘Nothing to See Here' Mode: BlackRock's Rosenberg

00:00 The one thing that did stand out was this idea that this is not a Fed that feels urgency to cut rates, even though you have the president basically jawboning them and you have people in the market saying we are seeing cracks. What was your take, Jeff, from this meeting? Yeah, you know, there's something we're not talking about which could have been, you know, the headline, which is this is the first statement of economic projections post the tariffs uncertainty. And mostly he got away with not really talking about that. Torsten just highlighted it a second ago. It's stagflation, eerie. I don't think anybody raised that in once that word ever came up. So we really kind of pivoted away from what might have been kind of an interesting storyline to the storyline that we're hearing, which is watching paint dry. And I think that's an excellent outcome for the Fed. That's what they want us to talk about paint drying and not the Fed opining on the impact of policy. They really ended up pivoting the conversation towards a repeat of nothing to see here. And, you know, we don't know. And it's much more about the uncertainty than it is about the forecasts that we just wrote down. I think that's kind of an interesting takeaway. I think as your previous guest just highlighted, that is the takeaway that the markets are, you know, having from today. And when you listen to the opening press conferences, I do I pull up last month's press conference and you can follow along. It's almost verbatim, with the exception of the insertion of the CPI changes, which he downplayed and maybe the the introduction of, you know, waiting for more information as opposed to waiting for the uncertainty to clear. This is very much a repeat of what we got last month.

Torsten Richter has been appointed General Manager at Anantara Siam Bangkok Hotel
Torsten Richter has been appointed General Manager at Anantara Siam Bangkok Hotel

Hospitality Net

time20-05-2025

  • Business
  • Hospitality Net

Torsten Richter has been appointed General Manager at Anantara Siam Bangkok Hotel

Anantara Siam Bangkok Hotel is pleased to announce the appointment of Torsten Richter as its new General Manager. With a distinguished career spanning over three decades in luxury hospitality, Torsten brings a wealth of international experience, strategic leadership, and a deep commitment to service excellence to his new role. Torsten joins Anantara Siam Bangkok from his most recent position as Minor Hotels' Area General Manager for Malaysia & Indonesia, and General Manager of Anantara Desaru Coast Resort & Villas. His extensive background includes leadership roles at some of the world's most prestigious hotel brands across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. His expertise in guest experience, operational efficiency, and brand positioning makes him an ideal leader to steer Anantara Siam Bangkok into a new era of success. A native of Germany, Torsten began his hospitality career in 1989 with an apprenticeship as a hotel and food and beverage expert at Schlosshotel Bühlerhöhe, one of the leading hotels in the world. After earning a Diploma in Hotel Management, he gained valuable experience at renowned properties, including The MARK Hotel in New York, where he held positions as Maitre d'Hotel and Restaurant Manager. He later joined Starwood's Leaders Development GM Fast Track program, which led to his first General Manager role at Le Méridien Khao Lak Beach & Spa Resort in Thailand in 2008. Since then, Torsten has held General Manager positions at several prestigious hotels, including The Sarasvati, a Luxury Collection Resort in Bali, The Ritz-Carlton in Berlin, The JAFFA, a Luxury Collection Hotel in Tel Aviv, and SO/Bangkok. Anantara Siam Bangkok Hotel, renowned for its elegant accommodations, world-class dining, and exceptional Thai hospitality, continues to be a premier destination for business and leisure travelers alike. Under Torsten's leadership, the hotel is set to strengthen its legacy and introduce innovative guest experiences that align with the evolving demands of luxury travellers.

Trump's tariffs could trigger a 'voluntary trade reset recession'
Trump's tariffs could trigger a 'voluntary trade reset recession'

Yahoo

time21-04-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Trump's tariffs could trigger a 'voluntary trade reset recession'

Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk joins Market Domination co-hosts Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton to discuss the state of the US economy and the likelihood of a recession, noting that there is a 90% chance of a "voluntary trade reset recession." To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Editor's note: Apollo Global Management is the majority owner of Yahoo, Yahoo Finance's parent company. You say toward in in a note recently. You say there's now a 90% chance of what you call a VTRR. Explain what you mean by that, Torsten. Yes, so if we really back up and think about normally, the economy is constantly faced with all kinds of what you could describe as shocks. For example, it was a shock that COVID came along, that created a recession. It was a shock when Lehman Brothers went under, that was a recession. We also had a shock in the early 1990s, of course, with the commercial real estate crisis. And we had a shock in 2000 when the IT bubble popped. So what is the shock today? Well, the shock today really is a voluntary trade reset recession. In other words, from one day to the other, a politician got elected. He comes in and says, I would like to start a trade war. And this trade war is now implemented in a way where we in financial markets can only conclude that it comes with more downside risks than if it was implemented in other ways. And it is mainly the implementation that is the biggest challenge when it comes to the economic outlook, namely that it comes with the risk that there is a requirement that, for example, your retailer who sells toys in the Midwest, who's now an independent store that normally has been importing from China, and now needs to find other ways of getting these toys, and there is no easy quick way to do that because the same toys are not produced in the US. The same toys might not even produced in other countries. 75% of toys that are sold in the US, they come from China. So the conclusion is that the way that this unfortunately has been implemented is going to have a more negative consequences. And that is what we will call a voluntary trade reset recession. In other words, it's voluntary, it's a trade reset, and we are worried that there's a 90% chance now that this is going to result in a recession if these tariffs stay at these levels. Torsten, what do you make of the argument about what the administration is trying to achieve in the end in terms of, they, as you say, they are resetting the trade paradigm on purpose. Um, is what they're aiming to do, A, is it achievable? And B, is it worth achieving? Well, one important aspect of course is the discussion around that the manufacturing sector only makes up today around 10% of US employment and 10% of GDP. It's been declining over the last many decades from around 40, 50%, if you go back to World War II, so now making up a much smaller share of the economy. So if the goal is to increase the manufacturing sector, then depreciating the dollar of course comes with another set of risks as we have constantly talking about in markets today. So the question here is, is it possible to grow the manufacturing sector? And if we want to grow the manufacturing sector, is that coming then with enough value added? For example, producing large language models, producing AI, of course, has more value added embedded relative to producing T-shirts and and shoes and toys, etc. So there is some very fundamental questions around if you grow the manufacturing sector, and that is definitely possible, but is the cost that has to be paid to achieve that goal going to be significant in terms of what it might mean for labor that could otherwise have been spending hours inventing large language models again, and AI and technology. So to your question, Julie, yes, it is a very important part of this discussion to debate whether the goal is to increase manufacturing, and if it's possible and desirable to increase the manufacturing sector, and if so, what type of products is it that we are imagining should be produced in the factories that potentially has to be built in this country. Sign in to access your portfolio

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