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Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Archer Aviation: What's Happening With ACHR Stock?
CANADA - 2025/05/13: In this photo illustration, the Archer Aviation logo is seen displayed on a ... More smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Archer Aviation is making substantial progress in the evolving electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) sector, reflected in its stock's over 200% surge in the past year. This upward trend is fueled by rising demand for its Midnight air taxi and strategic advancements in its commercialization efforts. The company boasts a robust order book totaling $6 billion, with each Midnight air taxi valued at $5 million, providing clear revenue visibility and underscoring strong market validation for eVTOL technology. Archer is expanding its global presence, exemplified by a recent $250 million agreement with Indonesia, marking its third "Launch Edition" market after the UAE and Ethiopia. These international initiatives are bolstered by multi-hundred million dollar framework agreements with the Abu Dhabi Investment Office (ADIO) to expedite air taxi operations across the UAE, alongside a partnership with Falcon Aviation to develop vertiport networks connecting Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Archer aims to deliver its first piloted Midnight aircraft to the UAE this year, initiating commercial operations later in 2025 and leveraging the region as an initial revenue stream and proving ground for global expansion. Manufacturing capabilities are rapidly advancing, with a 400,000 square-foot eVTOL manufacturing facility in Georgia completed last December. This facility is poised to support order fulfillment and scale operations for a targeted 2025 commercial deployment. On a separate note, see – SoundHound AI: Buy, Sell Or Hold SOUN Stock At $10? The eVTOL market fundamentally addresses urban mobility challenges by offering aircraft significantly quieter than traditional helicopters, enabling urban operations previously restricted due to noise, thereby substantially expanding the addressable market. Furthermore, Archer's strategic partnerships with established aviation operators, including Abu Dhabi Aviation and Ethiopian Airlines, are key to mitigating operational risks and accelerating market penetration. A recent significant development reported by Gulf News is the announcement of a five-country alliance (U.S., UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) to streamline eVTOL certification globally, which could significantly accelerate Archer's international deployment once it secures U.S. FAA type certification. Despite these positive indicators, including an average analyst price estimate of $12 for ACHR stock, suggesting approximately 20% upside potential from its current level of $10, the stock remains below its lifetime high of over $18 recorded in 2021. This disparity can be attributed to several inherent risks. Regulatory hurdles, specifically certification delays, pose a significant threat to revenue generation. Execution risks related to manufacturing and operational complexity also present challenges, and competition from well-funded rivals, such as JOBY, could lead to market share capture. Finally, Archer, like many pre-revenue companies in this capital-intensive industry, has ongoing funding requirements for scale-up. The stock has historically exhibited higher volatility and vulnerability during broader market downturns, losing approximately 90% of its value during the 2022 inflation shock and around 70% during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 index's peak-to-trough declines of 25% and 34%, respectively, underscoring its speculative nature. Overall, Archer Aviation appears poised for significant growth, yet this potential is accompanied by considerable risks. Now, we apply risk assessment framework while constructing Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Buy Or Sell FactSet Stock Ahead Of Upcoming Earnings?
CANADA - 2025/06/03: In this photo illustration, the FactSet Research Systems logo is seen displayed ... More on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) FactSet Research Systems (NYSE:FDS), a financial data and technology firm that offers software and information for investment management, is scheduled to release its Q3 earnings around June 23 (August fiscal year end). According to consensus estimates, earnings are projected to be $4.30 per share, a slight decline from $4.37 during the same period last year, while revenues are anticipated to rise by 5.1% year-over-year to $580.7 million. This growth is expected to be fueled by heightened demand from wealth and institutional buy-side clients, with organic subscription value – which refers to the recurring revenue the company anticipates generating annually from its existing subscription agreements – also likely to increase. The company possesses a current market capitalization of $16 billion. Revenue for the past twelve months stood at $2.3 billion, and it was profitable in operational terms, reporting $711 million in operating profits and a net income of $543 million. Nevertheless, for those seeking potential upside with less volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and yielding returns exceeding 91% since its inception. View earnings reaction history of all stocks Some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Further data concerning observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns is compiled along with the statistics in the table below. FDS 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return A relatively less risky approach (although not beneficial if the correlation is low) is to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns, identify the pair with the strongest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader can choose to go 'long' for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation information based on a 5-year and 3-year (more recent) time frame. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns. FDS Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), generating strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you're looking for potential upside with a smoother experience compared to an individual stock like FactSet Research Systems, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P, achieving over 91% returns since inception.
Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Buy PayPal Stock At $70?
CANADA - 2025/02/12: In this photo illustration, the PayPal logo is seen displayed on a smartphone ... More screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) shares have underperformed this year, falling approximately 17% year-to-date, in contrast to the S&P 500, which has risen around 2% during the same timeframe. PayPal's financial results have been varied. In Q1 2025, the firm reported earnings of $1.33 per share, surpassing expectations, although revenue fell short, totaling $7.8 billion—an increase of only 1% year-over-year—due to the company's focus on profitability over volume, leading to a reduction in its lower-margin revenue streams. The U.S. trade conflict has affected PayPal by creating economic uncertainty that may curb consumer spending and adversely impact cross-border e-commerce and payment volumes, which are essential for PayPal's income. Additionally, competition has been intensifying with platforms such as Apple Pay and Shopify making inroads into online checkout, which challenges PayPal's market leadership. Nonetheless, PayPal stock appears quite appealing at its current market price of approximately $71. We reach this assessment by evaluating the present valuation of PYPL shares alongside its operational performance in recent years and its current as well as historical financial health. Our evaluation of PayPal based on critical metrics of Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience indicates that the firm possesses a strong operational performance and financial standing, as outlined below. However, if you are looking for potential gains with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative option - it has outperformed the S&P 500 and yielded returns surpassing 91% since its launch. Based on what one pays per dollar of sales or profit, PYPL stock appears slightly undervalued relative to the broader market. • PayPal boasts a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.3 compared to a figure of 3.0 for the S&P 500 • Furthermore, the company's price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio stands at 9.9, while the S&P 500 registers at 20.5 • Additionally, it has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.8 as opposed to the benchmark's 26.4 PayPal's Revenues have experienced some growth in recent years. • PayPal's top line has grown at an average rate of 7.8% over the past 3 years (versus a 5.5% increase for the S&P 500) • Its revenues have increased by 6.8% from $30 billion to $32 billion in the last 12 months (in comparison to 5.5% growth for the S&P 500) • Additionally, its quarterly revenues grew by 4.2% to $7.8 billion in the latest quarter from $7.7 billion a year earlier (compared to a 4.8% increase for the S&P 500) PayPal's profit margins are approximately at the median level for firms in the Trefis coverage universe. • PayPal's Operating Income during the previous four quarters was $5.8 billion, representing a moderate Operating Margin of 18.1% (versus 13.2% for the S&P 500) • PayPal's Operating Cash Flow (OCF) for this duration was $7.5 billion, indicating a moderate OCF Margin of 23.4% (versus 14.9% for the S&P 500) • For the last four-quarter period, PayPal's Net Income was $4.1 billion, which demonstrates a moderate Net Income Margin of 13.0% (compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500) PayPal's balance sheet appears robust. • PayPal's Debt stood at $9.9 billion at the close of the most recent quarter, while its market capitalization is $70 billion (as of 6/13/2025). This results in a strong Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 13.4% (compared to 19.9% for the S&P 500). [Note: A lower Debt-to-Equity Ratio is preferred] • Cash (including cash equivalents) accounts for $11 billion of the $81 billion in Total Assets for PayPal. This results in a strong Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 13.3% (versus 13.8% for the S&P 500) PYPL shares have felt an effect that was slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during certain recent downturns. While investors remain hopeful for a mild landing by the U.S. economy, what could transpire if another recession occurs? Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash illustrates how key stocks performed during and after the last six market crashes. • PYPL shares declined 41.9% from a high of $308.53 on July 23, 2021, to $179.32 on December 1, 2021, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500 • The stock is still not back to its pre-Crisis high • The highest price the stock achieved since then was 197.35 on December 8, 2021, and it is currently trading around $71 • PYPL shares fell 20.3% from a peak of $121.30 on July 24, 2019, to $96.64 on October 23, 2019, contrasted with a peak-to-trough drop of 33.9% for the S&P 500 • The stock completely rebounded to its pre-Crisis peak by February 14, 2020 In conclusion, PayPal's performance across the outlined parameters is summarized as follows: • Growth: Strong • Profitability: Neutral • Financial Stability: Very Strong • Downturn Resilience: Neutral • Overall: Strong This correlates with the stock's moderate valuation, which leads us to conclude that it is fairly priced, suggesting that the stock could be a relatively solid buy. Although there may be some potential upside for PYPL shares, the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (comprised of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices), delivering strong returns to investors. Why does this happen? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks has offered a responsive means to capitalize on favorable market conditions while mitigating losses when markets decline, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.
Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Buy Or Fear CF Industries Stock
CANADA - 2025/06/14: In this photo illustration, the CF Industries Holdings logo is seen displayed ... More on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) CF Industries (NYSE:CF) stock appears appealing – making it a wise choice to buy at its present price of approximately $100. Despite some concerns regarding CF stock, it seems attractive given its current valuation, which appears to be very low. We reach our conclusion by juxtaposing the current valuation of CF stock with its operational performance in recent years as well as its present and historical financial state. Our review of CF Industries along key metrics of Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience indicates that the company has a moderate operational performance and financial health, as outlined below. Nevertheless, for investors desiring less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Based on the cost per dollar of sales or profit, CF stock appears inexpensive in comparison to the wider market. • CF Industries has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.6 compared to a figure of 3.0 for the S&P 500 • Furthermore, the company's price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio is 6.6 as opposed to 20.5 for the S&P 500 • Additionally, it has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.8 in contrast to the benchmark's 26.4 CF Industries' Revenues have seen marginal growth over the past few years. • CF Industries has experienced its top line contracting at an average rate of 5.6% over the last 3 years (versus an increase of 5.5% for the S&P 500) • Its revenues have increased by 0.7% from $6.1 Bil to $6.1 Bil in the past 12 months (compared to a growth of 5.5% for the S&P 500) • Additionally, its quarterly revenues rose by 13.1% to $1.7 Bil in the most recent quarter from $1.5 Bil a year prior (versus a 4.8% improvement for the S&P 500) CF Industries' profit margins are significantly higher than most companies in the Trefis coverage spectrum. • CF Industries' Operating Income over the last four quarters was $1.9 Bil, reflecting a high Operating Margin of 30.7% (versus 13.2% for the S&P 500) • CF Industries' Operating Cash Flow (OCF) during this period was $2.4 Bil, indicating a high OCF Margin of 39.4% (compared to 14.9% for the S&P 500) • For the last four-quarter span, CF Industries' Net Income was $1.3 Bil – suggesting a high Net Income Margin of 21.8% (compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500) CF Industries' balance sheet appears robust. • CF Industries' Debt figure was $3.3 Bil at the conclusion of the most recent quarter, while its market capitalization stands at $17 Bil (as of 6/13/2025). This results in a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 20.8%(versus 19.9% for the S&P 500). [Note: A lower Debt-to-Equity Ratio is preferable] • Cash (including cash equivalents) constitutes $1.4 Bil of the $13 Bil in Total Assets for CF Industries. This yields a strong Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 10.6% (versus 13.8% for the S&P 500) CF stock has performed worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during several recent downturns. • CF stock fell 49.1% from a peak of $118.35 on 26 August 2022 to $60.24 on 1 June 2023, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500 • The stock is still not back to its pre-Crisis high • The highest price the stock has reached since then is 99.93 on 15 June 2025 • CF stock declined 55.7% from a peak of $47.74 on 1 January 2020 to $21.14 on 18 March 2020, in comparison to a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500 • The stock fully bounced back to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 February 2021 • CF stock dropped 76.8% from a peak of $33.92 on 17 June 2008 to $7.88 on 20 November 2008, as opposed to a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500 • The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 August 2011 In summary, CF Industries' performance across the aforementioned parameters is as follows: • Growth: Neutral • Profitability: Very Strong • Financial Stability: Strong • Downturn Resilience: Very Weak • Overall: Neutral Considering its very low valuation, this renders the stock attractive, reinforcing our conclusion that CF is a wise investment choice. Although CF stock appears promising, investing in a lone stock can be precarious. Conversely, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, featuring a collection of 30 stocks, has demonstrated a history of comfortably surpassing the S&P 500 over the previous four-year duration. Why is that? Collectively, HQ Portfolio stocks offered superior returns with diminished risk in comparison to the benchmark index; resulting in a smoother investment journey, as evidenced by HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Forbes
12-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
When Will Intel Rebound?
CANADA - 2025/05/26: In this photo illustration, the Intel Corporation logo is seen displayed on a ... More smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) stock jumped by nearly 8% during Tuesday's trading session. While there weren't many stock-specific factors to justify such a significant move, tech stocks overall have been on an upward trend, driven by positive sentiment regarding the generative artificial intelligence phenomenon. Additionally, U.S. and Chinese officials are currently engaged in trade discussions in London, reportedly touching on export restrictions for various products, including semiconductors and rare earth metals, which may have contributed to the rise in Intel stock. Furthermore, strong fund inflows into technology funds like the Invesco QQQ Trust during the month of May also reflect the favorable outlook for the sector. Intel's stock has faced pressure over the past year due to its substantial investments in the foundry sector and a loss of market share in the server and PC spaces to competitors like AMD. Our evaluation of Intel based on essential metrics of Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience indicates that the company is experiencing poor operating performance, as outlined below. Nevertheless, if you are looking for potential upside with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative that has surpassed the S&P 500, yielding returns of over 91% since its launch. Based on your expenditure per dollar of sales or profit, INTC stock appears inexpensive when contrasted with the broader market. • Intel possesses a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.7 versus a figure of 3.0 for the S&P 500 • Moreover, the company's price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio stands at 8.6 against 20.5 for S&P 500 Intel's Revenues have decreased in the past few years. • Intel has experienced a decline in its top line at an average rate of 11.2% over the last 3 years (in comparison to a growth of 5.5% for S&P 500) • Its revenues have dropped by 4.0% from $55 Bil to $53 Bil in the past 12 months (while S&P 500 grew by 5.5%) • Additionally, its quarterly revenues contracted by 0.4% to $13 Bil in the most recent quarter from $13 Bil a year ago (versus a 4.8% increase for S&P 500) Intel's profit margins are significantly worse than most companies in the Trefis coverage universe. • Intel's Operating Income for the last four quarters amounted to $-4.1 Bil, reflecting a very poor Operating Margin of -7.8% (in contrast to 13.2% for S&P 500) • Intel's Operating Cash Flow (OCF) during this period was $10 Bil, indicating a moderate OCF Margin of 19.5% (against 14.9% for S&P 500) • For the last four-quarter span, Intel's Net Income was $-19 Bil, signifying a very poor Net Income Margin of -36.2% (compared to 11.6% for S&P 500) Intel's balance sheet appears to be adequate. • Intel's debt stood at $50 Bil at the conclusion of the most recent quarter, while its market capitalization is $96 Bil (as of 6/10/2025). This indicates a poor Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 56.3% (compared to 19.9% for S&P 500). [Note: A low Debt-to-Equity Ratio is preferable] • Total assets for Intel amount to $192 Bil, with cash (inclusive of cash equivalents) comprising $21 Bil. This results in a strong Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 10.9% (in contrast to 13.8% for S&P 500) INTC stock has performed worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during some recent downturns. Concerned about the effects of a market crash on INTC stock? Our dashboard How Low Can Intel Stock Go In A Market Crash? offers a thorough analysis of how the stock reacted during and after prior strong market downturns. • INTC stock experienced a 63.3% decline from a peak of $68.26 on April 9, 2021, to $25.04 on October 11, 2022, compared to a peak-to-trough drop of 25.4% for the S&P 500 • The stock has not yet returned to its pre-Crisis high • Since then, the highest point the stock has reached is 50.76 on December 27, 2023, and it currently trades at approximately $22 • INTC stock declined by 34.8% from a high of $68.47 on January 24, 2020, to $44.61 on March 16, 2020, versus a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500 • The stock has not yet returned to its pre-Crisis high • INTC stock saw a decrease of 56.8% from a high of $27.98 on December 6, 2007, to $12.08 on February 23, 2009, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500 • The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by March 26, 2012 Currently, Intel's recent performance has been lackluster, exhibiting inadequate growth and profitability as well as low resilience in downturns. Nonetheless, looking forward, there is potential for improvement. Intel's foundry operations, previously a weak area, may experience a turnaround within the next two years with the introduction of its advanced 18A process node, already attracting clients such as Amazon and Microsoft. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the administration in power due to its strong U.S. manufacturing footprint, which aligns with anticipated pro-domestic policy shifts. Furthermore, valuation appears reasonable with a lower price-to-sales and price-to-free cash flow ratio relative to the broader market. Additional advantages include the release of new PC/server chips (Lunar Lake, Arrow Lake) and increasing AI involvement through Gaudi accelerators, which could provide further uplift to the struggling stock. While investing in Intel stock may carry certain risks, the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio has consistently outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a composite of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices) to deliver robust returns for investors. What accounts for this? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks offered an adaptable strategy to capitalize on positive market conditions while minimizing losses during downturns, as described in RV Portfolio performance metrics.
