Latest news with #TheBigShort
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
‘Big Short' investor warns the precarious tariff environment reminds him of WWI—and a trade war would send the U.S. into a recession
Should failed tariff negotiations lead to a trade war, the global economy is likely headed toward a recession, The Big Short investor Steve Eisman told CNBC this week. Eisman said the tariffs were the 'only real risk' to the markets and warned the U.S. should be especially concerned with negotiating with the European Union ahead of the approaching July 9 trade-deal deadline. Global markets will enter dire economic straits if President Donald Trump's ongoing tariff stance leads to an all-out trade war, warns billionaire investor Steve Eisman. The former managing director of Neuberger Berman—who successfully anticipated and profited from the 2008 stock market crash, and whose profile served as the basis for Michael Lewis' book (and later, the 2015 film) The Big Short—said in a CNBC interview on Tuesday the U.S. economy and markets will flourish if the Trump administration is able to facilitate truces with the various nations on which he has imposed tariffs. But if that doesn't happen, 'chances are, we go into a global recession.' 'The tariffs and the potential for a trade war, I think, is really the only risk to the market right now,' Eisman said. 'It's completely binary, and I really have no way of handicapping it.' Trump's whipsaw tariff decisions have rattled both consumers—who have sharply cut back on spending as a result of the levies—and investors, who, like Eisman, see tariffs as a threat to the global economy. A Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey published this week found 47% of the 222 fund managers surveyed said they believed a global recession as a result of a trade war was the biggest 'tail risk' to markets. Trade deals, such as with the UK and a tentative truce with China, have tempered these concerns. JPMorgan Research lowered its probability of U.S. and global recessions from 60% to 40% at the end of May, citing decreased trade tensions as a result of Trump slashing Chinese tariffs. The U.S., however, has yet to resolve its trade issues with the European Union ahead of a crucial July 9 deadline. Eisman drew similarities between the rocky trade environment and lead-up to World War I, likely referring to a series of treaties forged in the decades before the war designed to settle regional skirmishes that, in reality, created two massive, and eventually opposing, alliances. 'Nobody wanted World War I, and yet, because of all the reciprocal treaties that existed between countries, they somehow ended up there,' he said. 'I don't think anybody wants a trade war, but it's certainly possible.' Though trade talks with China have taken center stage, Eisman argued the process of solidifying trade relations with Europe is 'more interesting,' given the EU's concerns with regulations, as well as value-added tax (VAT). With 27 member states, the EU has to balance myriad agendas, complicating a potential trade deal. 'Negotiating with Europe is like trying to herd cats given the way they're structured,' Eisman said. Trump has claimed the EU was created to 'screw' the U.S., threatening to impose, then later pausing, a 50% tariff on the union. As part of negotiations, the administration has tried to pressure the EU to loosen tech regulations he claims are inhibiting growth of U.S. companies. Trump also opposes VAT, essentially a sales tax that accumulates through each stage in a product's supply chain. The president has interpreted VAT as another trade barrier, arguing the tax puts undue financial pressure on U.S. businesses trying to export to Europe. Trump has signaled that the U.S. is not yet satisfied with provisions of the agreement, telling reporters on Tuesday, 'We're talking, but I don't feel that they're offering a fair deal yet.' Trump's former commerce secretary Wilbur Ross warned that after successful negotiations with China and the U.K., the Trump administration may become overconfident in negotiations with the EU, pushing away European allies. 'One fear is that if our government feels too chesty with their progress, they may overplay the hand and get to levels that are hard—maybe even impossible—for the other countries to give in,' Ross told Fortune last week. 'This is going to be hard, but our country's goal should be to help make European nations stronger and keep them close,' he added. This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Refinery29
3 days ago
- Business
- Refinery29
You'd Be Surprised By How Much TV Affects Your Financial Future
We intuitively know that what we see onscreen can shape how we see the world (like a skewed view on romance, for one, and thinking worthwhile love comes with struggle and drama) — but not so much with our personal finances. It's time that we thought more about the messages we receive — especially as women and non-binary people — around money, spending, and financial health. It's a topic that eToro, the social trading and investing company, has explored in its 2025 report: Alpha Portrayals of an Alpha Industry: Consequences for Female Investors. Let's start with the gender investment gap, which sits at £678 billion in the UK alone. On average, men save £1,512 more than women every year in the UK, and in 2023, 76% of men invested their savings, compared with only 63% of women. Men are also twice as likely to have a stocks and shares ISA than women. When it comes to retirement, men have on average 35% more in their pot than women. This gap exists for many reasons (chief among them, living in a patriarchal society), but what we watch is also a major contributor — and that's why we need to undo learned stereotypes we have around money and investing. In films and shows like Industry, The Wolf of Wall Street, and The Big Short (plus all the others eToro analysed), 76% of the money leads are male. When women characters do get the chance to take the lead in financial-focused roles, they are often given 'alpha' characteristics, which sends the message that in order for women to advance in male-dominated industries, we need to mimic the kind of bravado that's 'normal' in high-powered men's circles. And that shouldn't be the requirement for women to feel accepted in financial spaces — not to mention, it alienates people with different dispositions looking in. We all deserve to understand and learn about money in terms of investing and trading. Right now, 90% of the content analysed showed men speaking in a derogatory way toward women on the subject of money and investing — and that discourages those of us who aren't as financially literate to learn more eToro also found that women characters are often underqualified or shown as younger or less experienced than their male counterparts — and if they land a powerful position as a woman in these spaces, they surely must be an anomaly. Absorbing this stereotypical and sexist messaging is not only harmful, but also far from the truth of what we're capable of. Dr Ylva Baeckström, who analysed the study into films and TV series, says her previous research shows that women can have financial knowledge and confidence levels 'equal to men.' Unlike what we see onscreen, women can do well when they invest and educate themselves on the common lingo and how-tos. Baeckström also found that women who have female financial advisers invest up to 11% more than women with male advisers. 'These women also have higher financial knowledge and confidence than men,' she adds. 'Other research shows that when women do invest, they achieve higher returns than men because they make less biased investment decisions.' Baeckström worries that frequent use of complex financial jargon in film and TV can give viewers a sense of an exclusive world that we don't have access to. It 'reinforces the status quo' and leaves us just as confused about money, with the addition of now being potentially put off to plug those knowledge gaps. 'Sums of $3.5 billion USD are exchanged and traded in Billions, and $1.7 billion USD in Devils,' she says as an example. 'Such amounts, while appropriate for the shows' plotlines, are unrelatable for most people and may indirectly lead to the assumption that finance and investing exclusively involves big sums.' Theoretically, anyone can start investing if they have the know-how and the funds. Someone could invest as little as £50, then slowly add more as they get more comfortable with the concept of only investing what they're willing to lose, and understanding what kinds of investments are available. Again, films never show us the newbie or novice. It's high stakes; all or nothing. Successful investments generally take years of waiting and letting the pot slowly increase, depending on how the market is doing. If we saw things portrayed more inclusively, across all genders, women might feel more encouraged to 'increase their financial knowledge and learn about the risks and dangers of speculative investment decisions,' Baeckström says. This can only lead to more women making the steps to one day narrow the investment gap between men and women. Investing requires responsibility, and it's high time films and TV showed us that women possess enough responsibility to take part, too. For the sake of women's financial futures and wellbeing, everyone should be empowered to invest and trade.
Time of India
11-06-2025
- Entertainment
- Time of India
Brad Pitt reveals he craved the approval of motorsport fans while filming 'F1'
Hollywood iconBrad Pitt, who will be seen playing a Formula One in the new racing film, shared that he relished the experience of shooting F1. The actor added that having the support of the sports fans "everything" to him. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now He told 'Extra': "If we didn't pass their bar, than we were dead, you know? And to get that kind of, I don't know, response means a lot to us, because we have, again, so much respect for these drivers, for this sport, for everyone, the teams, everything they put into it." "They made the movie too. They're a big part of the film." Pitt was always confident that the Joseph Kosinski-directed movie would win over the sceptics, reports He said: "I felt pretty confident in what we have. You know, I feel like we successfully thread this needle that's for longtime fans that really understand the sport as well as newcomers, and they understood that was our goal, and, I don't know, I think they had fun too. I think it's just fun. It's really good fun." Pitt shot some scenes at the Silverstone racing circuit in the UK. The star said he felt anxious when he walked on the track at the British Grand Prix. He said: "We had been, like, rehearsing there for a few weeks, so it kind of felt like it was home. But then when the whole race movement comes in it's such a juggernaut of a is really awe-inspiring, and then to get on the track with 100,000 fans, I was a little bit nervous. "Actually, no, it was a high. Like, sitting waiting it was, once you get going, it's a high. It's a high." The actor has enjoyed a hugely successful career spanning over three decades in the movie industry and starring in films such as The Big Short, Ocean's Eleven, and Troy. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now However, the actor said that F1 has helped to reinvigorate him. Pitt said: "Doing this this long and to find something that was almost like starting over, it was so full of passion and it gave me a feeling like I've never had before. It was just sublime. I'm pretty grateful for Joe Kosinski for coming up with this."
The Age
11-06-2025
- Business
- The Age
‘Someone needs to punch the bully': What it will take to save the American Empire from ruin
The Big Short author Michael Lewis is, as one interviewer put it recently, 'a kind of guru of our age'. He has, after all, chronicled some of the big social and economic sea changes of our time – and, in the case of Donald Trump and Elon Musk's DOGE saga, he even seems to anticipate the sea changes. Speaking with Samantha Selinger-Morris on The Morning Edition podcast, Lewis discusses the catastrophic risks that could come from decimating the US federal government, and whether he thinks Trump's presidency will be the end of the American Empire. Click the player or watch the video below to listen to the full episode, or read on for an edited extract of the conversation. Selinger-Morris: I have to start by asking you what civil servants in the American federal government actually do, and what is the risk if they're fired… your latest book was actually mostly written last year before Trump returned to office. It seemed to predict Musk's gutting of the federal workforce. So what happens if they're fired? Lewis: Well, it depends on which ones you fire, but for starters, if you think about the federal government, there are several frames that are useful, but one is, it just manages a portfolio of risks and problems that the free markets don't want to manage or deal with, and it's all the hardest problems... everything from like, how you keep nuclear weapons from exploding when they shouldn't, to cleaning up horrible waste to forecasting hurricanes. Loading If you move from agency to agency in the US federal government, inside each one, you will find spine-tingling risks being dealt with and the way they've gone about... supposedly addressing the waste, fraud and abuse that they say existed in the government, was just to cut arbitrarily, whoever they could, rather than subjecting them to any kind of relevancy test or competency test. And so God knows what happens... It's very hard to predict where this leads. Selinger-Morris: So in your estimation, does that mean the United States is perhaps closer to experiencing another pandemic or a nuclear accident now than, say, before all of these DOGE cuts? Lewis: Of course. Yes. All of the above. Name your risk. I don't think there's a single risk it's less likely to have to deal with.
Sydney Morning Herald
11-06-2025
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
‘Someone needs to punch the bully': What it will take to save the American Empire from ruin
The Big Short author Michael Lewis is, as one interviewer put it recently, 'a kind of guru of our age'. He has, after all, chronicled some of the big social and economic sea changes of our time – and, in the case of Donald Trump and Elon Musk's DOGE saga, he even seems to anticipate the sea changes. Speaking with Samantha Selinger-Morris on The Morning Edition podcast, Lewis discusses the catastrophic risks that could come from decimating the US federal government, and whether he thinks Trump's presidency will be the end of the American Empire. Click the player or watch the video below to listen to the full episode, or read on for an edited extract of the conversation. Selinger-Morris: I have to start by asking you what civil servants in the American federal government actually do, and what is the risk if they're fired… your latest book was actually mostly written last year before Trump returned to office. It seemed to predict Musk's gutting of the federal workforce. So what happens if they're fired? Lewis: Well, it depends on which ones you fire, but for starters, if you think about the federal government, there are several frames that are useful, but one is, it just manages a portfolio of risks and problems that the free markets don't want to manage or deal with, and it's all the hardest problems... everything from like, how you keep nuclear weapons from exploding when they shouldn't, to cleaning up horrible waste to forecasting hurricanes. Loading If you move from agency to agency in the US federal government, inside each one, you will find spine-tingling risks being dealt with and the way they've gone about... supposedly addressing the waste, fraud and abuse that they say existed in the government, was just to cut arbitrarily, whoever they could, rather than subjecting them to any kind of relevancy test or competency test. And so God knows what happens... It's very hard to predict where this leads. Selinger-Morris: So in your estimation, does that mean the United States is perhaps closer to experiencing another pandemic or a nuclear accident now than, say, before all of these DOGE cuts? Lewis: Of course. Yes. All of the above. Name your risk. I don't think there's a single risk it's less likely to have to deal with.
