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In Tasmania, neither the Liberals nor Labor seem to comprehend the reality of minority government
In Tasmania, neither the Liberals nor Labor seem to comprehend the reality of minority government

The Guardian

time13-06-2025

  • Politics
  • The Guardian

In Tasmania, neither the Liberals nor Labor seem to comprehend the reality of minority government

Tasmania is off to its fourth election in seven years. For the second time in less than two years the Liberal premier, Jeremy Rockliff, has called an early poll after his breakdown in relations with the independents who supported his minority government. In early 2024 he called for an election a year before it was due after two ex-Liberal party independents, John Tucker and Lara Alexander, refused his draconian terms of not voting on Labor or Green bills, motions or amendments without discussing them with the government. The premier saw parliament as unworkable if they challenged government policy. But they would not agree to be silenced, for example, about the lack of transparency surrounding the AFL stadium proposed for Hobart's waterfront. The 2024 election did not return the Liberals to majority government. It delivered them 14 seats in an expanded parliament of 35 members of the House of Assembly. Labor won 10 seats, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network three and three independents were elected. The Liberals claimed victory. Labor refused suggestions that it could form a minority or coalition government with the Greens, and potentially with independents. On election night the party's then leader, Rebecca White, seemed interested but that faded in the light of day. Labor had governed in majority from 1998 until 2010, when it formed a quasi-coalition with the Greens, who sat within cabinet as ministers but with the ability to oppose government policy and legislation. This arrangement provided stable government for four years, with the Greens ministers Nick McKim and Cassie O'Connor well regarded as hard-working and effective. But Labor still blamed the Greens for its 2014 loss of government after 16 long years in power. The Liberals have governed since 2014, in majority until 2018. Their majority was regained in 2021 but subsequently lost. Their vote has gradually eroded to its low point today. Labor's vote has been stuck in the doldrums post-2014, with White taking the party to three consecutive election losses and blaming the Greens for destroying the party – rather than Labor's failure to differentiate itself from the Liberals. Polling in Tasmania mirrors this year's federal election result. The Liberal and Labor votes are hovering around 30%, eclipsed by the combined Greens, Lambie Network and independents at about 40%. If accurate this will surely deliver another minority government. But those results still might deliver more seats to the Liberals than Labor, despite parliament's no-confidence motion in Rockliff, his refusal to step down, and the fact that his government has become embattled, tired and ineffective. Labor's leader, Dean Winter, brought the no-confidence motion, setting in train the events that have led to the early election. This will win his party no fans. Labor has also backed the Liberals on the stadium proposal, now opposed by 59% of Tasmanians. The Greens stepped up and offered to work with Labor so an election could be avoided. But Winter travelled to Government House to assure the governor, Barbara Baker, that he and his party would not countenance working with the Greens. He will be hoping that Tasmanian voters cannot discern between state and federal politics, that they equate Tasmanian Labor with all its woes with the Albanese government, and that the 9% swing to Labor at the federal election is replicated. A millstone for the major parties is Tasmania's debt crisis, with net debt forecast to reach $10.9bn by 2029. Neither party has offered credible remedies and both will surely be constrained for once from electoral pork-barrelling. So the crossbench is likely to expand at the 2025 poll and, with it, the available talent for supporting minority government and playing a role in a quasi-coalition government. Indeed the Greens and the crossbench have the numbers to form their own minority government. But neither the Liberals nor Labor seem to comprehend the reality of minority government. Neither party seems to have learned from previous experiences of it. And neither has grasped that a Labor-Greens quasi-coalition offers a solid and workable arrangement. In Tasmania, the major parties simply have to come to terms with the fact that the days of majority government are done and will be until they significantly rebuild faith with the electorate. Until then, they need to deal cooperatively with the Greens and the crossbench. Kate Crowley, an adjunct associate professor at the University of Tasmania, is an expert on minority government and the editor of Minority Government: The Liberal-Green Experience in Tasmania

Stadium, ships and stability — parties make first pitch in Tasmanian election nobody wanted
Stadium, ships and stability — parties make first pitch in Tasmanian election nobody wanted

ABC News

time12-06-2025

  • Politics
  • ABC News

Stadium, ships and stability — parties make first pitch in Tasmanian election nobody wanted

Following a week of political mudslinging, Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff and Labor leader Dean Winter say they will attempt to project a "positive" image for the state in the freshly-started election campaign. On the first day of the campaign yesterday, both major parties started making pitches to voters ahead of the July 19 election. Mr Rockliff appeared on Thursday alongside his Bass candidates at Legana, an outer suburb of Launceston. The Liberals have only one change to the seven candidates who ran at the last election, with former federal Bass MP Bridget Archer now running. Spending much of last week attacking Mr Winter by calling him a "wrecker", Mr Rockliff started the campaign taking a different tack. "I'll be focusing in a positive frame of mind," he said. Standing next to the new Legana Primary School, Mr Rockliff said the Liberals were also building new roads and updating hospitals. "We will be making new announcements which I'll be working [through] with our candidates and with our community and have a very clear plan for Tasmania." The Liberals are expected to announce former Braddon MP Gavin Pearce and former senator Stephen Parry as candidates for Braddon today. The election followed a successful no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff, moved by Mr Winter last week. The no-confidence motion focused on the state's budgetary position, potential privatisation of state-owned companies, and the bungled rollout of new Spirit of Tasmania vessels. On the first day of the campaign, Mr Winter honed in on the Spirits saga. "Who could possibly believe that you could have a premier of this state who was buying a billion dollars' worth of new ships, and then forgot to build a berth for them to actually operate from? "It's something from a comedy act." Mr Rockliff said the government had been accountable — the Spirits' rollout led to former infrastructure minister Michael Ferguson resigning from the cabinet. Labor went to the last election under previous leader Rebecca White, who has since won the federal seat of Lyons. It means the party is expected to have a range of new policies under Mr Winter, which he had originally intended to release in the second half of the year. Mr Winter said he wanted Tasmania to be "a place where things actually get done". "I want rents to stop going up by so much. "I want this to be a place where hospitals are actually accessible, where you can go to school and get an education in Tasmania that's just as good as the mainland." The Tasmanian Greens appeared outside the historic Goods Shed at Macquarie Point, which is slated to be relocated as part of plans for a proposed stadium. The Greens oppose any new stadium in Hobart, contrary to the positions of the Liberals and Labor. Polling in February by EMRS — which is owned by Font PR, a firm with Liberal links — showed 59 per cent oppose the stadium while 36 per cent support it. Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff said the election was an opportunity for those opposed to the stadium to make their voices heard. "Whether it's a referendum or not, we know people in their droves will be voting against any party or individual who supports that stadium," she said. "Both Jeremy Rockliff's Liberals and Dean Winter's Labor have shown they are incapable of shifting their views despite poll after poll after poll showing Tasmanians hate a stadium. "What will it take? What it will take — we've found now — is an election."

Candidates coming forward ahead of Tasmania's July 19 state election
Candidates coming forward ahead of Tasmania's July 19 state election

ABC News

time12-06-2025

  • Politics
  • ABC News

Candidates coming forward ahead of Tasmania's July 19 state election

As Tasmania prepares for its snap election, candidates across the state are already putting their hands up to be part of the 52nd parliament. Despite the short amount of time they have had to find candidates, the Liberals are coming in with some heavyweights. The ABC understands Gavin Pearce, who chose not to recontest his federal seat of Braddon, will join a stacked-up state ticket in Premier Jeremy Rockliff's own state electorate of Braddon. Former Liberal Party senator Stephen Parry, who just failed in his bid to win the Legislative Council seat of Montgomery, will also be on the ticket. The party did not even wait for an election to be called when it announced former federal MP Bridget Archer, who was kicked out of office last month, was going to run for Bass. But they could not convince Susie Bower, who failed to win the seat of Lyons in the federal election, to jump straight back in the ring. There are also a fair few people popping their hands up who ran in the 2024 state election. Names like Burnie Deputy Mayor Giovanna Simpson (Braddon), Sandy Bay butcher Marcus Vermey (Clark) and vaccine sceptic Julie Sladden (Bass). The premier also confirmed this morning that all sitting Liberal MPs will be recontesting. Aside from Heidi Heck, Labor can not pull from any of the federal candidates who ran in the last election because they are all sitting in Canberra. Ms Heck has confirmed to the ABC she will not be running. However, former federal Lyons MP Brian Mitchell has confirmed he will be seeking preselection. Mr Mitchell stood aside for former state leader Rebecca White to run in the federal election, where she managed to increase his margin from 0.9 per cent to 11.6 per cent. But her absence will likely hurt the state party. In the 2024 Tasmanian election, Ms White won a whopping 15,607 first preference votes, helping to elect Jen Butler. The party has also lost long-serving Bass MP Michelle O'Byrne. Labor has yet to officially reveal any of its candidates, but it is understood all sitting members will recontest. The name of former Salmon Tasmania chief executive officer, now Labor advisor, Luke Martin has been bandied about for Clark, but that preselection has yet to be confirmed. Unions Tas secretary Jess Munday has been widely tipped to run for Labor in Franklin. The Greens' five candidates will all recontest. Meanwhile, Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie will have no presence this time around. She cut off two of her team, Miriam Beswick and Rebekah Pentland, early on in the term. The last standing Jacqui Lambie Network member, Andrew Jenner, announced just last week he had split from the JLN. Mr Jenner and Ms Pentland will run as independents. It is understood Ms Beswick is intending to run again; the question is, under which banner? It seems she is taking her time to consider whether to run as an independent or seek preselection with the Nationals. The party, which is opposed to the stadium, has just put out a call for candidates. Former Liberal MP John Tucker has confirmed he will be putting up his hand. Then there are a whole bunch of familiar independents, including incumbents David O'Byrne, Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland. Fresh off their failed federal election bids and keen to give life in politics another go are people like anti-salmon campaigner Peter George and independent Lyons candidate Angela Offord. Michelle Dracoulis, who briefly put her hand up for Labor last state election, will also run as an independent. Despite registering her own party, Senator Tammy Tyrrell will not be running any candidates. One Nation, which is not registered to contest a state election, will be nowhere to be seen. Given the election campaign is in its very early days, there will be many more candidates to come forward.

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