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7 hours ago
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Russia's Top Oil Executive Says OPEC+ Was Astute to Boost Output
(Bloomberg) -- Steps taken by the OPEC+ group to boost oil supplies have proved astute, given developments in the Middle East conflict, according to Rosneft PJSC Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown 'The decision by OPEC+ leaders to raise production at accelerated rates appears highly far-sighted today, and from a market perspective, justified, considering consumer interests amid uncertainty about the scale of the conflict between Iran and Israel,' Sechin said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Saturday. Eight OPEC+ nations have expanded output by more than expected for three consecutive months. They are set to convene on July 6 to consider adding more barrels in August. Saudi Arabia favors further large increases in order to recoup market share as quickly as possible, people familiar with the matter said earlier this month. Sechin, a key ally of President Vladimir Putin, has previously criticized Russia's cooperation with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. According to Sechin, Russia was losing market share, while US shale producers were increasing theirs. Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil producer, has based its 2025 business plan on an oil price of $45 per barrel, while the projection for next year is $42 to $43, Sechin said at the forum. The estimates are conservative as the company 'doesn't want to depend on the volatility' that's evident in the oil market currently, he said. It's been a turbulent week in the global oil market, with futures swinging in a range of around $8. Volatility has spiked to the highest since 2022 as Israel and Iran exchanged multiple strikes. Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
a day ago
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Wall Street's First-Half Whiplash Rewards All-Weather Portfolios
(Bloomberg) -- Somehow, for all its drama — tariffs, fiscal brinkmanship, inflation fears, and geopolitical flare-ups — the first half of 2025 may be remembered by diversified investors for something else entirely: the strongest stretch of synchronized market gains in years. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown Rather than spelling a slow-motion disaster for bulls, months of whiplash across equities, fixed income and commodities have rewarded strategic indifference and punished overconfidence. Strategies that spread risk across assets are outperforming by near-historic margins, a shift from the concentrated bets that favored the likes of Big Tech stocks in recent years. A Societe Generale multi-asset portfolio, tracking equities, government bonds, corporate credit, commodities and cash, is on pace for its strongest first-half performance since at least 2008. Even the classic 60/40 stock-bond mix — written off during the pandemic-era disruption as obsolete in a world of uncertain inflation — has proved relatively resilient. Meanwhile, a popular multi-asset strategy known as risk parity is up about 6%, by one measure. This holiday-shortened week offered fresh validation for cautious investors. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of 'elevated uncertainty' around economic growth and said new tariffs could reignite supply-side price pressure. Disappointing economic data and ongoing clashes between Israel and Iran added to the case for investors to stay vigilant about both the business and market cycle. In a market this divided, perhaps the only reasonable stance is to refuse to take a side, favoring instead a principled neutrality in portfolios built for all-weather conditions. 'For every indicator out there that shows the economy is strong, I can give you one that shows it's slowing,' said John Davi, chief executive of Astoria Portfolio Advisors. 'Uncertainty is definitely higher.' In a year when international stocks, gold, and even Bitcoin have outpaced the S&P 500, investors are being rewarded for looking beyond the familiar. Davi's firm's multi-asset ETF, with gold as its top holding, is up more than 10% — a result, he said, of building a portfolio 'meant to survive uncertainty, not predict it.' Trading in the biggest asset classes this week reflected the stunted returns that — despite the April rebound — have made a virtue of going further afield at a time of economic and political anxiety. The S&P 500 ended lower on the week and sits just 1.5% above where it began in January. Ten-year Treasury yields are broadly flat this week, while a broader index of government bonds has returned 3% so far this year. Instead, diversified portfolios have been powered by assets long eschewed during the era of Magnificent-7 exceptionalism. Developed-market equities excluding the US and Canada have climbed 14% year-to-date, while the Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged 8% this year, while gold has soared nearly 30%. 'I find that when it comes to owning things outside the US, from the US investor point of view, there's a lot of reluctance,' said SocGen's Manish Kabra. 'The only time you are really diversified is when you have assets that you don't want to own.' US investors are starting to get the message. Based on inflows, the top dozen ETFs tracked by Bloomberg over the past month encompass a broadening palette of asset classes, including gold, Bitcoin, overseas equities and short-term T-bills, alongside US stocks and bonds. 'ETFs are a natural solution to find diversification through other forms of equity exposure or yield hunting in the fixed income space, particularly to strategies with limited duration risk,' said Todd Sohn of Strategas. 'Ultra-short duration strategies have taken in the second-most inflows of categories we track.' To be sure, the old-school asset classes remain the main destination for investor cash. Equity ETFs have pulled in roughly $56 billion so far in June, surpassing May and April totals, with still around one week. Total cross-asset flows now stand at $523 billion, which means ETFs are on track to take in more than $1 trillion this year, after topping that number for the first time in 2024. How those bets fare in the evolving macroeconomic climate remains to be seen. A string of weaker-than-estimated data releases has pushed Citigroup's US Economic Surprise Index to its lowest level since September. On Wednesday, Fed officials downgraded their estimates for growth this year while lifting forecasts for unemployment and inflation. 'The macro backdrop has shifted so quickly this year,' said Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, a $100 billion registered investment adviser. 'Concentration helps in a bull market. Diversification helps you keep what you've earned when the macro backdrop shifts frequently.' Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
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a day ago
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Intense heat to push biggest US grid's power use to 12-year high
(Bloomberg) — Electricity use on the biggest US grid, which serves nearly a fifth of Americans from Washington DC to Illinois, is expected to climb to a 12-year high as intense heat spurs air conditioning needs. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown A heat wave will start baking the mid-Atlantic on Saturday with temperatures climbing to 100 F (38 C) in Washington on Monday, 13 degrees above average, according to Households and businesses relying on the grid managed by PJM Interconnection LLC may use as much as 158.5 gigawatts at about 5 p.m. ET, according to the system operator. That would make it the highest hourly peak demand since July 2013 and is above this summer's anticipated high, PJM data show. The all-time high for electricity demand was set in 2006, at nearly 165.6 gigawatts. PJM's demand growth is rebounding after languishing for the better part of a decade, as new data centers cropped up in Northern Virginia and spread across the grid. More efficient appliances and light bulbs had halted growth for years. Consumer costs are starting to climb as well, especially after an auction last year to procure supplies rose to a record high for a 12-month period that started June 1. Power prices for Monday soared to average at $200 a megawatt-hour in exchange-traded contracts, a roughly five-fold increase from Friday's day—ahead price, said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. 'The swath of heat stretching from the central plains to the big apple will bring near record heat to many metropolitan areas, but is happening early enough in the year that power demands should fall shy of records in most areas,' he said. The East Coast areas relying on PJM will endure much higher and more volatile prices than parts of the Midwest, he said. Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
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a day ago
- Business
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Harvard granted longer reprieve from Trump's foreign student ban
(Bloomberg) — A federal judge issued a new order that will allow Harvard University to continue enrolling foreign students while the school fights the Trump administration's efforts to prevent it from doing so. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown US District Judge Allison Burroughs granted Harvard a preliminary injunction Friday that prevents the Trump administration from implementing a May 22 order revoking the university's ability to host international students. The injunction extends an earlier temporary bar that was set to expire. Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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a day ago
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Trump Pledge of Quick China Magnet Flows Has Yet to Materialize
(Bloomberg) -- Almost 10 days since President Donald Trump declared a 'done' trade deal with Beijing, US companies remain largely in the dark on when they'll receive crucial magnets from China — and whether Washington, in turn, will allow a host of other exports to resume. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown While there has been a trickle of required permits, many American firms that need Chinese minerals are still waiting on Beijing's approval for shipments, according to people familiar with the process. China's system is improving but remains cumbersome, they said, contrary to Trump's assurances rare earths would flow 'up front' after a June 11 accord struck in London. The delays are holding an array of American industries hostage to the rocky US-China relationship, as some firms wait for magnets and others face restrictions selling to China. That friction risks derailing a fragile tariff truce clinched by Washington and Beijing in Geneva last month, and triggering fresh rounds of retaliation. Interviews with multiple Western buyers, industry insiders and officials familiar with discussions revealed frustration over vague policies in both countries and lingering confusion about what level of magnet approvals from China would trigger Trump to abandon his tit-for-tat export curbs. 'Even if export approvals accelerate, there are so many unknowns about the licensing regime that it's impossible for companies to have a strong sense of certainty about future supply,' said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Research. 'At a minimum, they need to factor in a real possibility that talks could break down again, and exports will be halted.' In response to China's sluggishness on magnets, Trump last month restricted US firms from exporting chip software, jet engines and a key ingredient to make plastic to China until President Xi Jinping restores rare-earth exports. Companies subject to Washington's curbs have halted billions of dollars in planned shipments as they wait for players in unrelated sectors to secure permits from Beijing, which could take weeks or even months to process, given the current pace. Corporate chiefs affected by the export-control spat have sought clarity from the administration on its strategy, according to people familiar with the matter. The Commerce Department — which administers the rules — has offered few details, they added. Oil industry executives have tried to convince Trump officials that blocking exports of ethane — a gas used to make plastics — is contrary to US national security interests, according to people familiar with the deliberations. Business leaders have asked for export restrictions to be removed but that's been unsuccessful so far, the people said. Energy and chemical giant INEOS Group Holdings SA has one tanker full of ethane waiting to go, while Enterprise Products Partners has three to four cargo ships stuck in limbo, according to a person familiar with the matter. That's particularly galling because China has adequate ethane supplies in reserve and can switch to using naphtha from the Middle East and other regions for much of their production, the people said. Representatives from the companies did not respond to requests for comment. Industry figures have consistently told the Trump administration the ethane export restrictions are inflicting more pain on US interests than on China, according to the people. China's Ministry of Commerce, which administers export licenses, hasn't responded to Bloomberg's questions on how many for rare earths have been granted since the London talks. At a regular briefing in Beijing on Thursday, spokesperson He Yadong said Beijing was 'accelerating' its process and had given the go-ahead to a 'certain number of compliant applications.' Access to rare earths is an issue 'that is going to continue to metastasize until there is resolution,' said Adam Johnson, chief executive officer of Principal Mineral, which invests in US mineral supply chains for industrial defense. 'This is just a spigot that can be turned on and off by China.' China only agreed to grant licenses — if at all — for six months, before companies need to reapply for approvals. Firms doing business in the US and China could see recurring interruptions, unless the Commerce Ministry significantly increases its pace of process applications. Adding an extra layer of jeopardy for US companies, Chinese suppliers to America's military-industrial base are unlikely to get any magnet permits. After Trump imposed sky-high tariffs in April, Beijing put samarium — a metal essential for weapons such as guided missiles, smart bombs and fighter jets — on a dual-use list that specifically prohibits its shipment for military use. Denying such permits could cause ties to further spiral if Trump believes those actions violate the agreement, the terms of which were never publicized in writing by either side. That sticking point went unresolved during roughly 20 hours of negotiations last week in the UK capital, people familiar with the details said. Complicating the issue, companies often buy magnets from third-party suppliers, which serve both defense and auto firms, according to a person familiar with the matter. That creates a high burden to prove to Chinese authorities a shipment's final destination is a motor not a missile, the person added. Beijing still hasn't officially spelled out the deal's requirements, nor has Xi publicly signaled his endorsement of it — a step Trump said was necessary. 'The Geneva and London talks made solid progress towards negotiating an eventual comprehensive trade deal with China,' White House spokesman Kush Desai said. 'The administration continues to monitor China's compliance with the agreement reached at Geneva.' China's Commerce Ministry is working to facilitate more approvals even as it asks for reams of information on how the materials will be used, according to people familiar with the process. In some cases, companies have been asked to supply data including detailed product designs, one of the people said. Morris Hammer, who leads the US rare-earth magnet business for South Korean steelmaker Posco Holdings Inc., said Chinese officials have expedited shipments for some major US and European automakers since Trump announced the agreement. China's Advanced Technology & Materials said Wednesday it had obtained permits for some magnet orders, without specifying for which destinations. The company's customers include European aerospace giant Airbus SE, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Around half of US suppliers to Toyota Motor Corp., for example, have had export licenses granted, the company said – but they're still waiting for those materials to actually be delivered. It's likely some of the delays are transport-related, one of the people said. Even with permits coming online, rare-earth materials are still scarce because overseas shipments were halted for two months starting in April, depleting inventories. Trump's agreement 'will allow for rare earths to flow out of the country for a short period of time, but it's not helping the auto industry because they're still talking shutdowns,' Hammer said. 'Nobody trusts that this thaw is going to last.' For many automakers, the situation remains unpredictable – forcing some to hunt for alternatives to Chinese supplies. Two days after Trump touted a finalized trade accord in London, Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley described a 'day-to-day' dynamic around rare-earths licenses – which have already forced the company to temporarily shutter one plant. General Motors Co. has emphasized it's on firmer footing in the longer term, because it invested in domestic magnet making back in 2021. The automaker has an exclusive deal to get the products from MP Materials Corp. in Texas, with production starting later in the year. It has another deal with eVAC of Germany to get magnets from a South Carolina plant starting in 2026. In the meantime, GM and its suppliers have applied for permits to get magnets from China, a person familiar with the matter said. Scott Keogh, the CEO of Scout Motors — the upstart EV brand of Volkswagen AG — told Bloomberg Television his company is re—engineering brakes and drive units to reduce the need for rare earths. Scout is building a plant in South Carolina to make fully electric and hybrid SUVs as well as trucks starting in 2027. Until the rare-earth supply line is re-opened to Washington's satisfaction, Trump has indicated that the US is likely to keep in place its own export restrictions. Senior US officials have suggested the curbs are about building and using leverage, rather than their official justification: national security. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the measures were used to 'annoy' China into complying with a deal US negotiators thought they'd already reached. Restrictions on sales to China of electronic design automation software for chipmaking are emblematic of the standoff. Those EDA tools are used to design everything, from the highest-end processors for the likes of Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. to simple parts, such as power-regulation components. Fully limiting China's access to the best software, made by a trio of Western firms, has been a longtime priority in some Washington national security circles — and would build on years of US measures targeting China's semiconductor prowess. While some senior Trump officials specifically indicated the administration would relax some semiconductor-related curbs if Beijing relents on rare earths, EDA companies still lack details on when, and whether, their China access will be restored, said industry officials who requested anonymity to speak candidly. Even if that happens, there's worry that heightened geopolitical risks will push Chinese customers to hunt for other suppliers or further develop domestic capabilities. 'The risk is there for the London deal to fall apart,' said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. 'Because rare earths is a very granular issue and mistakes can be made.' --With assistance from Jennifer A. Dlouhy, David Welch, Lucille Liu, James Mayger, Jing Li, Joe Ryan and Nicholas Lua. Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
