Latest news with #SumitBhatnagar
Economic Times
13-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Consumption and infrastructure 2 top compounding themes in market now: Sumit Bhatnagar
Sumit Bhatnagar, Fund Manager, LIC MF, says consumption is expected to rise and can be a top compounding theme as factors that slowed it down recede. Rural consumption has revived and urban consumption should follow. Tax cuts and RBI measures on unsecured loans will help. Government pay commissions in FY27 and FY28 will inject funds. The second compounding theme is infrastructure. India needs infrastructure investment in power, ports, railways, and roads. Focus on infrastructure is expected to continue. After that RBI bazooka of repo and CRR cuts, the Indian markets were seen to be trending higher, but given the fact that the crude oil is now showing a surge in the international market, what do you make of the market and where are we headed from here? Sumit Bhatnagar: We are positive on the markets over the near term. We are seeing a very clear sign of economic revival as also a potential for corporate earning revival as well. If you look at the global environment that we are in, both the IMF and World Bank have cut their global growth estimate by 50 bps. In that kind of an environment if your economy is growing at 6.5%, it is still a pretty decent number. With the recent policy measure that you just mentioned by the RBI both on the monetary side as also the regulatory step that they had taken earlier, it provides a significant support to your economic growth outlook. If the credit growth revives and if the credit growth picks up, then there can be a small positive surprise on the RBI GDP growth estimates as well. In that kind of an environment, markets should do well from here onwards also, but that should broadly be in line with the corporate earnings expectations which we expect to be in a low double digit return, low double digit over next one or two years. In so far as crude is concerned, even at $70 crude is not a major concern for us as it is within the budgeted numbers, its impact on inflation can easily be managed. What are some of the top secular or compounding themes in the market right now? What are you liking among the sectors at the moment? Sumit Bhatnagar: The top compounding themes to my mind would be consumption now. What has happened is that over the last two years consumption has lagged, but now the factors that were impacting the consumption or leading to slowdown are slowly receding. While we all know that rural consumption has revived, urban consumption also should now revive over the next one or two years. One is led by the tax cuts that the government has announced. Secondly, the steps that RBI has announced in so far as your unsecured loans are concerned should also help in revival of urban consumption. More importantly, in FY27, we expect central government's pay commission to come in and at the same time, one year later, maybe in FY28, some state government pay commission should come in and that should push in around Rs 2.5 lakh crore into the hands of one-and-a-half crore employees and that should provide some bit of a support to second compounding theme is infrastructure. We think India still is very underinvested in so far as infrastructure is concerned, including power, power transmission, ports, railways, and roads. If you are planning to be a major manufacturing hub, you want to be a China plus one type of an alternative, there is no choice but to invest heavily into infrastructure. Both the central and state government's focus continues to be on that. Last year may have been an aberration. We expect focus to continue going forward. So, these two would be the key themes for me. Help us with your take on the IT pack as well. The sector has not participated much in the recent rally that we have seen, but for the past couple of days, select IT counters were buzzing. Is there merit to once again look into any of the IT counters? Can they do well? Sumit Bhatnagar: IT as a pack is in a very tricky situation. While valuations have corrected somewhat over last six months led by global uncertainty, if we do not see a revival in global growth, if uncertainty around us does not recede or US-China does not recede, we can continue to see disappointments in it, so that is one space where there is a potential of a downgrade if the global uncertainty does not recede per se. And if you talk about the overall market construct right now, Q4 FY25 earnings have been better than what the Street was estimating. On the back of this, do you believe there are any sectors that need to be relooked or revisited in terms of any rerating, derating perhaps? Sumit Bhatnagar: Broadly we expect low double digit type of earnings at a largecap level over next two years. But in terms of sectors, maybe financial, both banks and NBFCs can now surprise positively. The recent RBI measure can help banks in managing the NIMs much better with a CRR cut that they have announced. Plus, frontloading of the repo rate cut should help NBFCs as well. With credit growth revival, there can be earnings surprises in both these segments. Secondly, telecoms with the possibility of a tariff hike can surprise positively on earnings. Cement, we expect to do well with the prices holding up firmly and with the volume growth of 6-7%, cement can surprise on upside in so far as earnings are concerned. Consumption over the next two-three years can surprise if demand picks up. Drivers are now getting in place for demand revival, but we need to watch out for that. What is your take on metals? We believe the government is likely to hike the safeguard duty on the steel products beyond 12% and on a month-on-month basis, we are seeing domestic steel production inching higher. What will impact the steel stocks? Will it be the demand, will it be the price, or will it be supply? Sumit Bhatnagar: Our sense is that in the entire metal space, steel is one segment that should do reasonably well. Even without your government support on anti-dumping or safeguard duties, steel volumes were still growing at a pretty healthy 8-9%. And with the government's plan to hike duty to 24%, it could only reduce the cheap Chinese imports that are coming in. So, maintain a positive view on steel, but valuations also need to be looked at in steel stocks. What is your take on emerging sectors like aviation as a subsector of defence? We have already seen a significant runup in some of these defence counters. Would you still continue to be bullish on defence and also aviation in terms of drones as a subsector of defence? Sumit Bhatnagar: So far as defence is concerned, till about a month back, it used to be a narrative sector, but after the proof given in Operation Sindoor, the narrative part is over, now they can actually offer a very attractive opportunity over a medium to long term. With the kind of proof that we have seen, we do expect some bit of an inquiries or increase in inquiries for your defence platforms as well. Earlier, we used to export support consumables, but now platforms also are a fair game but that is going to take time. So, in so far as near-term is concerned, the recent rally prices in a lot of positives and space as a whole may be a fairly priced or maybe inching towards valuations as well. In so far as drones are concerned, we have seen the importance of drones in Operation Sindoor per se and even in Russia-Ukraine war. Now drones are a very effective weapon system as well. Drones have both a defence as also your industrial application. As a space, drones can do well, but unfortunately there are not many options available to play this space.
Time of India
13-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Consumption and infrastructure 2 top compounding themes in market now: Sumit Bhatnagar
Sumit Bhatnagar , Fund Manager, LIC MF , says consumption is expected to rise and can be a top compounding theme as factors that slowed it down recede. Rural consumption has revived and urban consumption should follow. Tax cuts and RBI measures on unsecured loans will help. Government pay commissions in FY27 and FY28 will inject funds. The second compounding theme is infrastructure. India needs infrastructure investment in power, ports, railways, and roads. Focus on infrastructure is expected to continue. After that RBI bazooka of repo and CRR cuts, the Indian markets were seen to be trending higher, but given the fact that the crude oil is now showing a surge in the international market, what do you make of the market and where are we headed from here? Sumit Bhatnagar: We are positive on the markets over the near term. We are seeing a very clear sign of economic revival as also a potential for corporate earning revival as well. If you look at the global environment that we are in, both the IMF and World Bank have cut their global growth estimate by 50 bps. In that kind of an environment if your economy is growing at 6.5%, it is still a pretty decent number. With the recent policy measure that you just mentioned by the RBI both on the monetary side as also the regulatory step that they had taken earlier, it provides a significant support to your economic growth outlook. If the credit growth revives and if the credit growth picks up, then there can be a small positive surprise on the RBI GDP growth estimates as well. In that kind of an environment, markets should do well from here onwards also, but that should broadly be in line with the corporate earnings expectations which we expect to be in a low double digit return, low double digit over next one or two years. In so far as crude is concerned, even at $70 crude is not a major concern for us as it is within the budgeted numbers, its impact on inflation can easily be managed. What are some of the top secular or compounding themes in the market right now? What are you liking among the sectors at the moment? Sumit Bhatnagar: The top compounding themes to my mind would be consumption now. What has happened is that over the last two years consumption has lagged, but now the factors that were impacting the consumption or leading to slowdown are slowly receding. While we all know that rural consumption has revived, urban consumption also should now revive over the next one or two years. Live Events You Might Also Like: Buy on dips if you believe in long-term India growth, 3 investment themes to bet on: Mihir Vora One is led by the tax cuts that the government has announced. Secondly, the steps that RBI has announced in so far as your unsecured loans are concerned should also help in revival of urban consumption. More importantly, in FY27, we expect central government's pay commission to come in and at the same time, one year later, maybe in FY28, some state government pay commission should come in and that should push in around Rs 2.5 lakh crore into the hands of one-and-a-half crore employees and that should provide some bit of a support to consumption. The second compounding theme is infrastructure. We think India still is very underinvested in so far as infrastructure is concerned, including power, power transmission, ports, railways, and roads. If you are planning to be a major manufacturing hub, you want to be a China plus one type of an alternative, there is no choice but to invest heavily into infrastructure. Both the central and state government's focus continues to be on that. Last year may have been an aberration. We expect focus to continue going forward. So, these two would be the key themes for me. Help us with your take on the IT pack as well. The sector has not participated much in the recent rally that we have seen, but for the past couple of days, select IT counters were buzzing. Is there merit to once again look into any of the IT counters? Can they do well? Sumit Bhatnagar: IT as a pack is in a very tricky situation. While valuations have corrected somewhat over last six months led by global uncertainty, if we do not see a revival in global growth, if uncertainty around us does not recede or US-China does not recede, we can continue to see disappointments in it, so that is one space where there is a potential of a downgrade if the global uncertainty does not recede per se. And if you talk about the overall market construct right now, Q4 FY25 earnings have been better than what the Street was estimating. On the back of this, do you believe there are any sectors that need to be relooked or revisited in terms of any rerating, derating perhaps? Sumit Bhatnagar: Broadly we expect low double digit type of earnings at a largecap level over next two years. But in terms of sectors, maybe financial, both banks and NBFCs can now surprise positively. The recent RBI measure can help banks in managing the NIMs much better with a CRR cut that they have announced. You Might Also Like: Next biggest opportunity will be thrown up by manufacturing in India: Mihir Vora Plus, frontloading of the repo rate cut should help NBFCs as well. With credit growth revival, there can be earnings surprises in both these segments. Secondly, telecoms with the possibility of a tariff hike can surprise positively on earnings. Cement, we expect to do well with the prices holding up firmly and with the volume growth of 6-7%, cement can surprise on upside in so far as earnings are concerned. Consumption over the next two-three years can surprise if demand picks up. Drivers are now getting in place for demand revival, but we need to watch out for that. What is your take on metals? We believe the government is likely to hike the safeguard duty on the steel products beyond 12% and on a month-on-month basis, we are seeing domestic steel production inching higher. What will impact the steel stocks? Will it be the demand, will it be the price, or will it be supply? Sumit Bhatnagar: Our sense is that in the entire metal space, steel is one segment that should do reasonably well. Even without your government support on anti-dumping or safeguard duties, steel volumes were still growing at a pretty healthy 8-9%. And with the government's plan to hike duty to 24%, it could only reduce the cheap Chinese imports that are coming in. So, maintain a positive view on steel, but valuations also need to be looked at in steel stocks. What is your take on emerging sectors like aviation as a subsector of defence? We have already seen a significant runup in some of these defence counters. Would you still continue to be bullish on defence and also aviation in terms of drones as a subsector of defence? Sumit Bhatnagar: So far as defence is concerned, till about a month back, it used to be a narrative sector, but after the proof given in Operation Sindoor , the narrative part is over, now they can actually offer a very attractive opportunity over a medium to long term. With the kind of proof that we have seen, we do expect some bit of an inquiries or increase in inquiries for your defence platforms as well. Earlier, we used to export support consumables, but now platforms also are a fair game but that is going to take time. So, in so far as near-term is concerned, the recent rally prices in a lot of positives and space as a whole may be a fairly priced or maybe inching towards valuations as well. You Might Also Like: ETMarkets Smart Talk: Defence stocks may face bumpy ride despite big potential, says Asit Bhandarkar In so far as drones are concerned, we have seen the importance of drones in Operation Sindoor per se and even in Russia-Ukraine war. Now drones are a very effective weapon system as well. Drones have both a defence as also your industrial application. As a space, drones can do well, but unfortunately there are not many options available to play this space.
Economic Times
19-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Mutual funds bet big on healthcare stocks after Trump's tariff pause. Is the danger really over?
Live Events Mutual funds with highest exposure in health stocks Returns snapshot Outlook (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Donald Trump 's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced on April 9, 2025, brought much-needed stability to stock markets and lifted sentiment in the pharma and healthcare sectors, which had been clouded by pharmaceutical sector found itself in a unique position, having received exemptions in the initial tariff announcements which kicked-in on April 2, though no clarity on what lay ahead. Between April 2 and April 9, the Nifty Healthcare index had declined by over 3%, or nearly 1,300 the Nifty Healthcare index staged a strong rebound following the pause, rising 7% or around 2,650 points over the remaining 12 trading sessions of the month. This recovery was accompanied by notable institutional activity, with mutual funds increasing their holdings in 11 healthcare stocks in April compared to was also among the sectors where MF ownership was higher by over 1% versus the sector's weight in the BSE 200 to a Motilal Oswal report, 17 funds were over-owned and MFs weight on the sector stood at 7.6% in April, behind private banks (18.9%), technology (8.3%) and automobiles (8%). Meanwhile, the healthcare sector in BSE 200 stands at 5.4%, the report MoM buying of 11.43% in April was seen in midcap stock Syngene International . It was followed by Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Laurus Labs where mutual funds added stake by 7.63%, 6.05% and 3.85%, like Lupin, Aurobindo Pharma, Divi's Laboratories, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Abbott India, Ipca Laboratories and Biocon also saw mutual fund action towards the buying healthcare stocks also went under the hammer and saw a sell-off. These were Zydus Lifesciences Torrent Pharmaceuticals , Max Healthcare Institute, Mankind Pharma, Granules India, Fortis Healthcare, Cipla, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise and Alkem selling was highest in Torrent Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences at 8.34% and 4.87%, respectively. The next in the pecking order were Granules, Apollo and Mankind where MFs sold 3.89%, 3.64% and 3.61%. The others saw a sell-off between 1.67% and 0.46%.Sumit Bhatnagar, Fund Manager Equity at LIC Mutual Fund said that the healthcare sector often remains resilient due to the essential nature of its services and products and innovations and an aging population continue to drive demand. However, the potential impact of Trump's tariffs on the healthcare sector is a valid concern in his view and tariffs could increase costs for healthcare companies which could affect their profitability. "These increased costs might be passed on to consumers or could lead to reduced margins for healthcare companies," he told and Quant top the list with holdings of 11.5% and 11.1%, respectively and are followed by Axis MF (10.4%), Mirae (9.7%), HDFC MF (9.1%) and Sundaram MF (8.4%).The lowest holdings are for SBI MF (5.1%), MOFSL (5.5%) and UTI MF (6.1%).Nifty Healthcare index's 1-year returns stand at 17%, outperforming Nifty which has returned 12% in the same continued to show trust on Syngene in April despite a 6% drop in share price over a 1-year period. Meanwhile, mutual funds sold shares in laggards Zydus Lifesciences and Alkem which have fallen 14% and 2% in the past 12 remains the best performer in the pack with 60% returns and MFs added stakes in April (1.13%) and March (2%). Glenmark and Laurus, which also saw significant MF action, have returned robust 44% and 36% Abbott, Sun Pharma and Biocon have also given double-digit returns in the same period while IPCA, Aurobindo and Dr. Reddy's have delivered single-digit funds booked partial profits in stocks like Fortis Health, Max Health, Granules, Mankind and Torrent Pharma whose 1-year returns stand in the range of 21% and 56%. Apollo Hospitals has yielded 18% returns while Cipla has been an underperformer with just 6% sector is again in the eye of the storm as Trump has signed an executive order to bring the prices for prescription (Rx) drugs in line with other developed nations. The order institutes the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) price model for drugs as a ceiling which means the US will pay for drugs at the same levels as the lowest paid by other countries."The policy initiatives, if implemented fully, may lead to increased compliance/operational cost for foreign manufacturers, including those in India. We expect generic pharma to continue to underperform due to uncertainty," Nuvama Institutional Equities said in a note. It prefers Ajanta Pharma, Torrent Pharma and Divi's Securities sees the generic companies unlikely having any impact, though it expects Sun Pharma with its specialty business in the US, to see some impact of MFN price ceiling for a few of its products. JM Financial sees over 20% growth visibility for hospitals and CDMO for the next 4-5 years. Amongst the hospitals, it likes Max Healthcare, Aster DM and Fortis while Piramal Pharma and One Source in UBS expects healthcare to outperform Nifty over the next 12-month period as the Zurich-based brokerage reiterated its positive stance on Nifty, seeing an 8% upside with a target of 26,000. In a note of caution on generic pharma export names, it expects earnings downgrades starting in 2HFY26.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Time of India
19-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Mutual funds bet big on healthcare stocks after Trump's tariff pause. Is the danger really over?
Live Events Mutual funds with highest exposure in health stocks Returns snapshot Outlook (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Donald Trump 's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced on April 9, 2025, brought much-needed stability to stock markets and lifted sentiment in the pharma and healthcare sectors, which had been clouded by pharmaceutical sector found itself in a unique position, having received exemptions in the initial tariff announcements which kicked-in on April 2, though no clarity on what lay ahead. Between April 2 and April 9, the Nifty Healthcare index had declined by over 3%, or nearly 1,300 the Nifty Healthcare index staged a strong rebound following the pause, rising 7% or around 2,650 points over the remaining 12 trading sessions of the month. This recovery was accompanied by notable institutional activity, with mutual funds increasing their holdings in 11 healthcare stocks in April compared to was also among the sectors where MF ownership was higher by over 1% versus the sector's weight in the BSE 200 to a Motilal Oswal report, 17 funds were over-owned and MFs weight on the sector stood at 7.6% in April, behind private banks (18.9%), technology (8.3%) and automobiles (8%). Meanwhile, the healthcare sector in BSE 200 stands at 5.4%, the report MoM buying of 11.43% in April was seen in midcap stock Syngene International . It was followed by Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Laurus Labs where mutual funds added stake by 7.63%, 6.05% and 3.85%, like Lupin, Aurobindo Pharma, Divi's Laboratories, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Abbott India, Ipca Laboratories and Biocon also saw mutual fund action towards the buying healthcare stocks also went under the hammer and saw a sell-off. These were Zydus Lifesciences Torrent Pharmaceuticals , Max Healthcare Institute, Mankind Pharma, Granules India, Fortis Healthcare, Cipla, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise and Alkem selling was highest in Torrent Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences at 8.34% and 4.87%, respectively. The next in the pecking order were Granules, Apollo and Mankind where MFs sold 3.89%, 3.64% and 3.61%. The others saw a sell-off between 1.67% and 0.46%.Sumit Bhatnagar, Fund Manager Equity at LIC Mutual Fund said that the healthcare sector often remains resilient due to the essential nature of its services and products and innovations and an aging population continue to drive demand. However, the potential impact of Trump's tariffs on the healthcare sector is a valid concern in his view and tariffs could increase costs for healthcare companies which could affect their profitability. "These increased costs might be passed on to consumers or could lead to reduced margins for healthcare companies," he told and Quant top the list with holdings of 11.5% and 11.1%, respectively and are followed by Axis MF (10.4%), Mirae (9.7%), HDFC MF (9.1%) and Sundaram MF (8.4%).The lowest holdings are for SBI MF (5.1%), MOFSL (5.5%) and UTI MF (6.1%).Nifty Healthcare index's 1-year returns stand at 17%, outperforming Nifty which has returned 12% in the same continued to show trust on Syngene in April despite a 6% drop in share price over a 1-year period. Meanwhile, mutual funds sold shares in laggards Zydus Lifesciences and Alkem which have fallen 14% and 2% in the past 12 remains the best performer in the pack with 60% returns and MFs added stakes in April (1.13%) and March (2%). Glenmark and Laurus, which also saw significant MF action, have returned robust 44% and 36% Abbott, Sun Pharma and Biocon have also given double-digit returns in the same period while IPCA, Aurobindo and Dr. Reddy's have delivered single-digit funds booked partial profits in stocks like Fortis Health, Max Health, Granules, Mankind and Torrent Pharma whose 1-year returns stand in the range of 21% and 56%. Apollo Hospitals has yielded 18% returns while Cipla has been an underperformer with just 6% sector is again in the eye of the storm as Trump has signed an executive order to bring the prices for prescription (Rx) drugs in line with other developed nations. The order institutes the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) price model for drugs as a ceiling which means the US will pay for drugs at the same levels as the lowest paid by other countries."The policy initiatives, if implemented fully, may lead to increased compliance/operational cost for foreign manufacturers, including those in India. We expect generic pharma to continue to underperform due to uncertainty," Nuvama Institutional Equities said in a note. It prefers Ajanta Pharma, Torrent Pharma and Divi's Securities sees the generic companies unlikely having any impact, though it expects Sun Pharma with its specialty business in the US, to see some impact of MFN price ceiling for a few of its products. JM Financial sees over 20% growth visibility for hospitals and CDMO for the next 4-5 years. Amongst the hospitals, it likes Max Healthcare, Aster DM and Fortis while Piramal Pharma and One Source in UBS expects healthcare to outperform Nifty over the next 12-month period as the Zurich-based brokerage reiterated its positive stance on Nifty, seeing an 8% upside with a target of 26,000. In a note of caution on generic pharma export names, it expects earnings downgrades starting in 2HFY26.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Economic Times
08-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
UK-India FTA to benefit many sectors; FIIs returning to India & will maintain momentum: Sudip Bandyopadhyay
Live Events You Might Also Like: Go for a barbell strategy in cement; a strategic repositioning in BFSI and FMCG: Sumit Bhatnagar (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Group Chairman,, says following protracted negotiations, the UK-India FTA is poised to benefit numerous industries, overshadowing any concerns over the US Fed policy. By and large, FIIs have started coming back to India and will maintain the further says that despite a loss due to a one-time expense, Paytm's profitability and potential MDR on UPI payments are generating excitement. While not inexpensive, Paytm appears promising for long-term investors within the payments right. We should also focus on the UK-India FTA which has been signed after a protracted series of negotiations and this augurs well for many industries. Of course, we can talk about textiles, and liquor, but many more industries will benefit directly or indirectly. It is a very good step and because of Operation Sindoor excitement, we are not getting too much into that. But it is a very good thing to have to the US Fed policy announcements, the rates have not changed, but the Fed chairman's comments will be very carefully studied. By and large, we have been positive on Indian markets , and we maintain our positive believe that this bit of geopolitical instability or uncertainty will pass. It is just a matter of time. Maybe in the next few days, we will have some kind of concerns and some excitement, but by and large, FIIs have started coming back to India and will maintain the far as Paytm is concerned, though they declared a loss this quarter, it was on account of a one-time ESOP related expense. So, ignoring that, they are there in terms of profitability. It is a fantastic thing to have happened after such a long time. Paytm finally is operationally and at even PAT, PBT level becoming profitable, and that is excellent news. The excitement is also around the expected change in MDR is there on other kind of payments, but on UPI, MDR is still not there and they are expecting that to happen sometime sooner than later and this creates the excitement around the Paytm stock and overall payment space will get a leg up if there is some kind of MDR on the UPI payments which has been the demand for the industry for quite some time. At the end of the day, it is also fair. Some kind of nominal charge will benefit the industry in a big way. As far as Paytm is concerned, while it is not a cheap stock even at current levels, from a long-term perspective, now Paytm looks interesting.
