Latest news with #StoneX
Bloomberg
8 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Why Recessions Aren't What They Used to Be
Subscribe to Merryn Talks Money on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to Merryn Talks Money on Spotify In a US economy based on intangibles and the seemingly constant stimulus of government spending, downturns are both less common and more shallow than they used to be. This according to Vincent Deluard, director of global macro strategy at StoneX, who joins this week's Merryn Talks Money to explain his thesis. If correct, it's one that has implications for the market. If a deep recession in the US isn't likely—and assuming that everyone understands that—it becomes hard to see market corrections being as brutal as they would have been in the past.
CNA
2 days ago
- Business
- CNA
Dollar trades lower as investors focus on Israel-Iran conflict ahead of Fed decision
NEW YORK/LONDON :The U.S. dollar traded mostly lower against the yen and edged higher against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as fighting between Israel and Iran spurred investors to scoop up safe havens, while a pending Federal Reserve rates decision restrained volatility. Israel has bombarded arch-enemy Iran over the past six days to halt its nuclear activity and has asserted the need for a change of government in the Islamic Republic. The U.S. military is also bolstering its presence in the region, Reuters reported, stirring speculation about U.S. intervention that investors fear could widen the conflict in an area with critical energy resources, supply chains and infrastructure. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement read by a state television presenter on Wednesday that his country would not accept U.S. President Donald Trump's call for an unconditional surrender. The dollar has resumed its role as a safe haven, having gained around 1 per cent against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc since last Thursday. On Wednesday, the U.S. currency took a breather, edging fractionally lower against the yen and the franc and more noticeably so against the euro and the pound. "A lot of the (dollar's) safe haven appeal has faded, and that's why the move has been relatively limited so far," said Matt Weller, global head of market research at StoneX. "I think traders are just coming around to that realization and looking ahead to what I expect to be a very dovish hold from the Federal Reserve this afternoon." Against a basket of six other major currencies, the dollar is still down around 8 per cent so far this year, as confidence in the U.S. economy and the reliability of Trump's administration as a trading and diplomatic partner has faded. With the Fed's decision on interest rates just hours away and U.S. markets closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth federal holiday, activity in currencies was muted. Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.27 per cent to 144.88 and was steady against the franc at 0.8169 francs. NO CHANGE FROM THE FED Traders expect the U.S. central bank to leave borrowing costs unchanged and will parse what Chair Jerome Powell says about the outlook for growth and inflation. Uncertainty was already running high and recent data have begun to show the impact of Trump's erratic approach to trade and tariffs. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East, and the surge in crude oil prices to about $75 a barrel, have further complicated the picture for policymakers. "I think everyone had expected they would shift dovish, but just given the CPI report and some of the underlying employment data recently, with the Iran situation kicking off and oil prices higher, we'll see how the Fed threads the needle," said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX, at Jefferies. "But I think most would expect they're going to be keeping their options open, remaining a little more cautious, which probably doesn't impact the dollar too much." The dollar kept to weaker ranges even after data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell, but stayed elevated. Meanwhile, the Swedish central bank cut rates as anticipated, leaving the crown a touch weaker against the euro, which rose 0.57 per cent to 11.0300 crowns. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England and the Norges Bank will deliver their respective rate decisions. The pound rose 0.25 per cent to $1.3461, having received an early boost from data showing inflation cooled no more than expected to an annual rate of 3.4 per cent in May, ahead of the BoE decision. The euro was also up 0.26 per cent at $1.151. In the background, an area of frustration for investors was a Group of Seven meeting in Canada that yielded little on the tariff front ahead of Trump's early-July deadline for additional import levies.
Zawya
4 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Soyoil around 18-month highs, grains fall on good crop weather
HAMBURG - Chicago soyoil hit its highest in around 18 months on Monday, supported by U.S. biofuel blending proposals that are likely to increase demand, while favourable U.S. weather conditions drove wheat and corn lower. Crude oil fell after renewed military strikes by Israel and Iran over the weekend left oil production and export facilities unaffected, easing concern about disruption of crude supplies. That removed some of the support for soybean prices, which tend to move in tandem with oil, that was seen on Friday. The larger-than-expected biofuel blend proposals, however, still supported the soy complex. The Chicago Board of Trade's most-active soyoil rose 5.7% to 53.50 cents per pound at 1131 GMT, around its highest since December 2023. Soyoil gains also pulled soybeans up 0.1% at $10.71-3/4 per bushel. Wheat fell 1.2% to $5.37-1/4 a bushel as the U.S. winter wheat harvest accelerates. Corn fell 1.1% to $4.39-1/2 a bushel, weakened by favourable weather forecasts for crop development in the U.S. corn belt. 'Soybeans and soyoil are being underpinned by the Trump administration's larger-than-expected biofuel blending proposals which would generate more demand for soyoil and so soybeans," said Matt Ammermann, StoneX commodity risk manager. "The Trump Administration is not known to be renewable energy-friendly, but the substantial increase could be intended to reduce the sting of the trade war with China, which has hugely damaged U.S. soy exports to China.' Traders await weekly crop ratings on Monday from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, with U.S. winter wheat harvesting accelerating, corn and soybean planting is finishing. 'Wheat and corn are weaker today as crop weather in the U.S. is looking very positive this week, with just the right mix of sunshine needed for the winter wheat harvest with a little rain needed for corn development,' said Ammermann. 'Other north hemisphere wheat crops are also looking good, especially in the Black Sea. This raises the prospects of extra competition from the Black Sea to exporters in the U.S. and other regions.'
Express Tribune
6 days ago
- Business
- Express Tribune
Diesel most exposed to Mideast conflict
Listen to article US ultra-low sulphur diesel futures hit the highest level since February, outpacing gains in oil and gasoline as analysts warned that diesel supply is the most exposed to the conflict in the Middle East. Israel on Friday launched the biggest-ever direct attack on Iran and said the huge wave of airstrikes was only the start of its campaign. Iran has since launched retaliatory strikes, with explosions heard over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Crude oil futures jumped about 7% as analysts worried Iran's response could include a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supplies traverses. Diesel futures jumped even more, surging about 8% for their biggest single-day gains since April 2022. Diesel outperformed because the conflict's biggest impact is expected to be on the supply of medium heavy-sour crude grades, which are better suited for production of distillate fuels, StoneX oil analyst Alex Hodes said. The Middle East is also a major export hub for distillate fuels like diesel, gasoil and jet fuel, said Matias Togni, analyst at oil market insights firm Next Barrel. The conflict could impact liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows within the region and lead to higher diesel and fuel oil consumption for power generation, with Egypt already showing signs of such a switch, Togni said. Combined diesel, gasoil and jet fuel exports from the Middle East averaged 1.76 million barrels per day in May, close to 2% of total world oil consumption, according to Kpler data. Retail spike to follow Existing inventories for diesel are already low, adding to concerns that the conflict will lower Middle East diesel exports and global production, said StoneX's Hodes. US inventories of diesel and heating oil stood at 108.9 million barrels in the week ended June 6, about 15% below the past five years' average, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed. Combined with the surge in crude oil prices, those tight inventories are likely to cause a 10-to-30-cent a gallon surge in retail diesel prices in the US over the next two weeks, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said. By contrast, US gasoline stocks were slightly above the five-year average at 214.7 million barrels, the EIA data showed. GasBuddy is estimating a five-to-15-cent per gallon jump in US gasoline prices over the coming weeks. US gasoline futures rose 8.47 cents to settle at $2.2276 a gallon on Friday, while ULSD futures rose 17 cents to settle at $2.3587 a gallon. Traders pile into $80 oil bets Traders on Friday exchanged the most $80 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil call options since January, expecting more upside to prices after Israeli airstrikes on Iran sparked fears of a wider Middle East conflict. Call options grant the holder a right to buy futures contract at the pre-set price and date and a rise in volumes can help gauge market sentiment. About 33,411 contracts of August-2025 $80 call options for WTI crude oil were traded on Friday on a total trading volume of 681,000 contracts, marking the highest volume for these options this year, according to CME Group data The last time trading was this high for $80 call contracts was on January 10, with 17,030 February-2025 $80 call options traded on a total trading volume of 301,866 contracts. Oil prices jumped on Friday and settled 7% higher as Israel and Iran launched airstrikes, feeding investor worries that the combat could widely disrupt oil exports from the Middle East. US WTI crude finished at $72.98 a barrel, up $4.94, or 7.62%. During the session, the WTI jumped over 14% to its highest since January 21 at $77.62.
Reuters
7 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Diesel most exposed to Middle East conflict, US futures surge 8%
NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) - U.S. ultra-low sulfur diesel futures hit the highest level since February, outpacing gains in oil and gasoline as analysts warned that diesel supply is the most exposed to the conflict in the Middle East. Israel on Friday launched the biggest ever direct attack on Iran and said the huge wave of airstrikes was only the start of its campaign. Iran has since launched retaliatory strikes, with explosions heard over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Crude oil futures jumped about 7% as analysts worried Iran's response could include a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supplies traverses. Diesel futures jumped even more, surging about 8% for their biggest single-day gains since April 2022. Diesel outperformed because the conflict's biggest impact is expected to be on the supply of medium heavy-sour crude grades, which are better suited for production of distillate fuels, StoneX oil analyst Alex Hodes said. The Middle East is also a major export hub for distillate fuels like diesel, gasoil and jet fuel, said Matias Togni, analyst at oil market insights firm Next Barrel. The conflict could impact liquefied natural gas flows within the region and lead to higher diesel and fuel oil consumption for power generation, with Egypt already showing signs of such a switch, Togni said. Combined diesel, gasoil and jet fuel exports from the Middle East averaged 1.76 million barrels per day in May, close to 2% of total world oil consumption, according to Kpler data. Existing inventories for diesel are already low, adding to concerns that the conflict will lower Middle East diesel exports and global production, said StoneX's Hodes. U.S. inventories of diesel and heating oil stood at 108.9 million barrels in the week ended June 6, about 15% below the past five years' average, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. Combined with the surge in crude oil prices, those tight inventories are likely to cause a 10 to 30 cents a gallon surge in retail diesel prices in the U.S. over the next two weeks, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said. By contrast, U.S. gasoline stocks were slightly above the five-year average at 214.7 million barrels, the EIA data showed. GasBuddy is estimating a five to 15 cents per gallon jump in U.S. gasoline prices over the coming weeks. U.S. Gasoline futures rose 8.47 cents to settle at $2.2276 a gallon on Friday, while ULSD futures rose 17 cents to settle at $2.3587 a gallon on Friday.
