Latest news with #StatisticsSA
The Citizen
2 days ago
- Business
- The Citizen
Inflation unchanged in May at 2.8% as economists expected
While the inflation rate remained under the bottom band of the Reserve Bank's inflation target, it is not expected to stay there. The inflation rate remained unchanged in May at 2.8% as economists expected, but geopolitical risks could see it drift higher than expected in the months ahead. Statistics South Africa (Statistics SA) announced on Wednesday morning that the inflation rate remained the same as in April, with food prices being the only category that pushed inflation up in May by 0.2% compared to April. Jee-A van der Linde, senior economist at Oxford Economics Africa, says the outcome was in line with their expectations, and they continue to see a mild increase in price inflation heading into the second half of 2025. The main contributors to the inflation rate in May were housing and utilities, which increased by 4.5% and contributed 1.0 percentage point, food and non-alcoholic beverages, which increased by 4.8% and contributed 0.9 percentage point and alcoholic beverages and tobacco, which increased by 4.3% and contributed 0.2 percentage point. Statistics SA noted that higher meat prices (+4.4%) were a key driver of prices, with the biggest monthly increase recorded for beef products. Van der Linde points out that South Africa is in the grip of a widespread outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, which intensified in June and will have an impact on domestic food prices going forward. ALSO READ: Inflation steady in May but food prices still increased Fuel levy offset lower fuel prices in May, keeping inflation at 2.8% 'Elsewhere, the latest data shows that domestic fuel prices declined further in June, but this is likely to be offset by the simultaneous increase in general fuel levies this month. Mid-month fuel prices data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates that petrol and diesel are likely to cost more in July after the latest upsurge in international oil prices.' He also notes that international oil prices rallied after Israel's strikes on Iran, with Brent Crude Oil prices briefly hitting $80.0 per barrel before settling around $74 per barrel. 'Due to the flare-up in tensions in the Middle East, we now forecast Brent Crude Oil prices to average $67.8 per barrel in 2025, slightly higher than our previous estimate of $67.3 per barrel. 'While oil supply remains unaffected, further escalation could see Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off around 20% of global supply and potentially driving prices to $120 per barrel. At that point, oil prices would be near the levels recorded when Russia invaded Ukraine and domestic fuel prices shot up to record levels.' However, Van der Linde says the latest inflation data does not alter their updated inflation outlook, and they still forecast inflation will average 3.4% in 2025 compared to 4.4% in 2024. 'Although headline inflation will drift higher throughout the second half of the year due to base effects, the overall outlook remains benign and unchanged from our earlier views, although several risks have emerged recently that could lead to prices increasing faster.' ALSO READ: What Israel–Iran conflict means for South African economy Risks to inflation outlook worsened over past few days Busisiwe Nkonki and Johannes (Matimba) Khosa, economists at the Nedbank Group Economic Unit, also expect inflation to drift upwards in the second half of the year, but still average a muted 3.5% in 2025. However, they say, risks to the inflation outlook have worsened in recent days as the rand weakened, and global oil prices jumped due to the conflict in the Middle East. 'Food prices will increase as the base continues to normalise. However, favourable crop prices resulting from good rainfall, as well as increased livestock slaughtering, will contain the upside. The biggest concern is the rand. 'While the domestic currency has been resilient in recent weeks, it remains vulnerable to unfavourable global economic and geopolitical developments. 'The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) will have to weigh the benign inflation outlook against the potential upside risks emanating from the highly volatile and uncertain global environment. At this stage, we still see room for the Sarb to cut further in July.'
News24
3 days ago
- Business
- News24
May inflation still below 3%, but meat and other food much pricier
• For more financial news, go to the News24 Business front page. For the third month in a row, consumer price index (CPI) inflation remained below 3% - the bottom level of the SA Reserve Bank's target band. CPI came in at 2.8% for May – unchanged from April and exactly in line with the expectations of economists polled by Reuters. But food prices are heating up. In May, food and non-alcoholic beverages were 4.8% more expensive than a year ago - the biggest annual increase in more than a year. Beef was a big contributor, as foot-and-mouth disease, combined with higher feed prices, fuelled price hikes, Statistics SA says. In a single month, from April to May, large price hikes were seen in beef steak (+4.5%), stewing beef (+2.5%) and beef mince (+1.7%). Annual inflation for meat surged from 3.0% in April to 4.4% in May. Fish prices are also on the rise, with hake now 9.1% and fish fingers 6.1% pricier than a year ago. Maize meal (+14%) and samp (21%) are also still much more expensive than a year ago. After prices for oils and other fats cooled in recent months, this picked up in May again. Sunflower oil was 7.6% pricier than a year ago and brick margarine 7.9%. Statistics SA noted that vegetable prices were volatile, but that May saw the biggest annual price increase (more than 10%) in 18 months. While coffee and tea prices are cooling, prices are still 12.4% higher than a year ago - from 15% in April. Statistics SA In May, electrician rates were updated, with services 7.9% more expensive than a year ago. Much cheaper fuel kept May's inflation number in check. Petrol prices were 16% and diesel almost 13% lower than a year before. Fuel has benefitted from falling oil prices, but this came to an abrupt halt on Friday after Israel's attacks on Iran. Traders are nervous that oil supplies from the Middle East may be disrupted by escalating tensions. On Wednesday morning, Brent oil was trading at around $75 a barrel – from an average of below $64 in May. SA diesel and fuel prices are currently on track for small hikes in the first week of July. The SA Reserve Bank has been pushing hard to lower SA's inflation target to 3% (from a band of 3% to 6%), and recently pointed out that the current inflation rate is lower than that of Japan (3.6%), making this an opportune time.
Daily Maverick
4 days ago
- Business
- Daily Maverick
Why Web3 is the career path Africa didn't see coming
For years, Africa's most ambitious youth were told success meant becoming a doctor, lawyer, or engineer. Traditional careers were seen as the only reliable path to upward mobility. But today, a quiet revolution is underway, not in boardrooms, but on the blockchain. This is more than a shift in technology; it's a transformation in how we work. Web3 is no longer a fringe concept; it's fast becoming one of the most exciting career opportunities for young Africans. One that accommodates everyone, whether you're a beginner or a seasoned professional. No one has missed the boat; it's never too late to start. A generation rewriting the rules Across the continent, young people are becoming increasingly mobile-first, digitally savvy, and actively seeking alternatives to traditional career paths, many of which are oversaturated and struggling to absorb a growing workforce. With South Africa's youth unemployment rate at 44.6% in Q4 2024 (Statistics SA), the search for new opportunities is urgent. Web3 offers a compelling alternative: a borderless, decentralised ecosystem where postcodes matter less than skill sets and ambition. As part of our commitment to empowering South African youth through education and community engagement, Binance proudly sponsors The Inside Show, a platform dedicated to amplifying youth perspectives on digital innovation. 'Young South Africans aren't just learning about Web3, they're living it. From creating NFT art to hosting crypto conversations online, we're seeing a surge in digital confidence and curiosity. For many, it's not just a career shift, it's a mindset shift,' says George Avakian, Founder and Host of the podcast at The Inside Show, a platform dedicated to amplifying youth perspectives and spotlighting new digital frontiers. At Binance, we're witnessing this transformation firsthand. From smart contract developers to NFT artists and community managers, young Africans are staking their claim in a digital economy that rewards creativity, agility and openness. Real career paths in Web3 What makes Web3 different is its breadth. You don't have to be a developer to thrive. Career paths include: Content creators and educators demystifying blockchain for new audiences Project managers and community leads are building trust across decentralised communities Designers and product thinkers shaping crypto user experiences Policy specialists and legal minds guiding responsible innovation across African markets And demand is growing. In our 2022 education initiative, we received over 80,000 applications worldwide from individuals eager to learn about Web3, a powerful signal of Africa's appetite for blockchain knowledge and readiness to work in this space. Education is the gateway But opportunity means little without access. That's why Binance is committed to making Web3 education accessible, practical, and locally relevant. Through Binance Academy, campus initiatives, and partnerships with African universities and youth networks, we're building pathways into the space, no coding background required. Recently, Binance partnered with AltSchool Africa, a platform reimagining education for the modern workforce, to offer structured Web3 training tailored to young Africans seeking digital skills. This collaboration brings together Binance's blockchain expertise with AltSchool's learner-first approach, offering accessible courses that blend theory with real-world application. We believe blockchain literacy is a 21st-century skill, just like financial literacy or digital security. And we're working to ensure that young Africans aren't just users of crypto, but the creators and builders of the next wave of innovation. The future is already here Young Africans are no longer waiting for an invitation to participate; they are building their platforms and creating opportunities for others to join. They are using Web3 not only for personal advancement but also to foster community empowerment and economic inclusion. A platform like Momint demonstrates how blockchain can be used to help creators and institutions monetise content and fund meaningful initiatives from preserving cultural heritage to supporting clean energy projects, showcasing the potential of African Web3 innovation to deliver real-world impact at scale. A new generation is redefining success and unlocking opportunities that didn't exist a decade ago, not through legacy systems, but by building the future of work block by block in Web3. DM
Daily Maverick
4 days ago
- Business
- Daily Maverick
Mashatile declares South Africa's youth unemployment crisis a ‘moral emergency'
Forty-nine years after the youth of 1976 fought against the apartheid regime, the young people of today face a starkly different but equally urgent crisis: crippling unemployment. Deputy President Paul Mashatile labelled the situation a 'moral emergency', equating the historical fight for quality education with the modern struggle for economic access. Exactly 49 years ago, Soweto came to a standstill when the students of 1976 took to the streets to oppose the apartheid regime's plan to introduce Afrikaans as the medium of instruction for mathematics and science. The youth of 2025 may have starkly different struggles from the young people who shut down townships and laid down their lives in 1976, but they are dealing with their own crisis that has seen many take to the streets in protest – youth unemployment. In his keynote address at the Youth Day Commemoration in Potchefstroom on Monday, Deputy President Paul Mashatile labelled South Africa's crippling youth unemployment a moral emergency. The latest employment figures released by Statistics SA paint a dire picture of the country's labour market. The economy shed 300,000 jobs and youth unemployment soared to 46.1%, meaning almost half of the young population (15 to 35) are locked out of the economy. 'This is more than just an economic issue. It is a moral emergency. It affects our whole society and demands urgent action from all sectors – government, business and communities at large. We must fix the structural challenges in our economy to address inequality and skills mismatch between education and what the job market needs,' Mashatile said. Taking to the stage at the North West University's Rag Farm Stadium in President Cyril Ramaphosa's stead, the deputy president equated the young people's fight in 1976 for quality education to the ongoing efforts to empower today's youth with skills for a changing world. Government's response Mashatile detailed the government's multipronged strategy to combat youth unemployment and promote economic participation. It involves aligning skills development with labour market demands, promoting youth entrepreneurship and unlocking financial support and funding for young business owners. On the skills development front, Mashatile said the government was collaborating with organisations like the Harambee Youth Employment Accelerator to address the mismatch between skills and labour market demands. Additionally, the Human Resource Development Council is working to strengthen partnerships between Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) colleges and employers. The deputy president also listed the government's wins so far. Key among them was the Presidential Youth Employment Intervention, which has registered more than 4.7 million young people on its national network and secured more than 1.6 million earning opportunities. He also cited the success of the Social Employment Fund, which has created 140,000 jobs by supporting civil society organisations in initiatives related to health, education and food security. Looking to the future, Mashatile highlighted new initiatives designed to equip young South Africans with modern skills. He announced the recent launch of the South African National Service Institute in May 2024, which offers nationwide programmes in critical sectors such as artificial intelligence, coding, robotics and energy. This will be complemented by the Digital Economic Masterplan and the National Digital and Future Skills Strategy, which aim to promote youth participation in the digital economy. Closing his address, the Deputy President issued a call to action to all sectors of society. He urged the private sector to 'create opportunities by investing, hiring and supporting youth innovation'. In a direct message to the nation's youth, he urged them not to give up hope: 'Your voice, your ideas and your energy are the fuel that can rebuild this country.' DM
The Citizen
6 days ago
- Business
- The Citizen
Minister agrees unemployment statistics should include work in informal sector
The question is whether Statistics SA calculates the unemployment rate correctly and if it is really around 10%. Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Parks Tau, said this week that he agrees with Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie that unemployment statistics should include work in the informal sector. However, not everybody agrees. Fourie said this week that Statistics SA should rethink how it measures unemployment, arguing that when the vast informal sector is considered, the unemployment rate of 32.9% could be closer to 10%. 'We talk about an unemployment rate of 32%, but Statistics SA does not count self-employed people. I think that is an area we must correct. The unemployment rate is probably actually 10%. Just go look at the number of people in the township informal market who sell all sorts of stuff and have a turnover of R1 000 per day.' This week in parliament, Tobias Chance, a DA MP, asked Tau for his comments as he was not sure whether Fourie's claim was accurate. He also wanted to know whether it was true that not enough attention was paid to supporting the informal economy. Chance emphasised that the informal sector in South Africa supported fewer people in work compared to other similar countries, particularly elsewhere in Africa. ALSO READ: Is South Africa's unemployment rate really only 10%? Minister Tau agrees Tau acknowledged that the point had been raised by various quarters concerning what was calculated and what not. He admitted he did not read the article with Fourie's statements, but said he believes there was significant undercounting, particularly when the informal sector was considered. 'This is an issue that everyone should collectively engage with to both acknowledge the informal sector and reinforce the support mechanisms for what was a major contributor to employment in the country. 'The informal sector is not only about self-sufficiency. There were instances when, according to my understanding, the ratio was one-to-one, meaning that for each informal sector operator, there was at least one additional employee. The number of employees per company would always differ.' Tau said there was an argument to be made in that regard and that Fourie's comments regarding South Africa's statistics needed to be considered. 'This has implications for how the country responded in terms of public policy and interventions.' ALSO READ: A VIEW OF THE WEEK: Taking unemployment lessons from a bank boss who can't count? Research institution says there is nothing wrong with calculation However, Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS), an independent, non-profit, economic research institution based in Pretoria, established in 1996 to support economic policy development, with an emphasis on industrial policy, does not agree with Fourie. Senior economist at TIPS Dr Neva Makgetla says their own research shows that claims by a few business leaders and researchers that the informal sector has been neglected in both official data on unemployment and in government strategies to address joblessness are at best overdrawn and at worst simply false. 'Our substantial analytical work into the quality of official employment statistics, as well as the substantive factors behind persistently high joblessness and the obstacles facing small businesses, including the informal sector, shows that: The official Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) adequately defines and assesses employment, self-employment, unemployment and the informal sector. It is not true that the official data ignores informal employment and self-employment, which would result in exaggerated estimates for the unemployment rate. In 1994, self-employment in South Africa was already much lower than the norm for upper-middle-income countries due to the dispossession of black business owners under apartheid. The QLFS findings reflect South Africa's unique history, not methodological flaws. A key question is why the transition to democracy has done little to overcome the deficit in small businesses that originated under apartheid. The main reason is that the destruction of small and especially family-owned businesses under apartheid inevitably also destroyed their ecosystem. Most private and public services, infrastructure and resourcing of all kinds are still designed to meet the needs of large established producers, which often differ from those of small and especially informal enterprises. By extension, effective policies to expand small businesses, including in the informal sector, cannot rely narrowly on reducing regulatory burdens. Instead, South Africa needs to develop new systems in both the private and the public sector to support emerging and informal businesses on a mass scale.' NOW READ: This is where we would be if SA sustained an economic growth rate of 4.5%
