Latest news with #StatementonMonetaryPolicy
The Advertiser
2 days ago
- Business
- The Advertiser
Labour market stays tight despite surprise drop in jobs
A surprise fall in jobs will do little to further improve the prospects of a Reserve Bank rate cut as the central bank weighs up the impact of a tight labour market. Australia's unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent in May, but 2500 jobs dropped out of the economy, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday. Despite the result confounding forecasts of a 21,200 gain in employment, economists don't expect the RBA to read too much into it as it followed a jump of 87,600 jobs in April. The fall in employment suggested some "payback" in the labour market, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said. Employment was still up by 2.3 per cent since May 2024, a rise bigger than the pre-pandemic, 10-year average annual growth rate of 1.7 per cent, bureau head of labour statistics Sean Crick said. "This fall in employment, combined with a drop in unemployment of 3000 people, meant that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1 per cent for May," he said. The volatility in employment figures has not been reflected in the jobless rate, which has held within a tight 3.9 to 4.4 per cent range since March 2024. The participation rate fell 0.1 per cent to 67 per cent. "Together, today's numbers imply the labour market is continuing to gradually cool," Mr Sycamore said. The Reserve Bank watches the labour market closely as it is a key influence on inflation. Mr Sycamore expects the RBA to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its next board meeting in July, but the rates market marginally reduced the odds of a July cut to 63 per cent following the latest release. ANZ economists Aaron Luk and Adam Boyton said the labour market was tracking healthier in the June quarter than the RBA expected in its May forecast. But they expect the central bank to ignore some of the noise of the fluctuating employment growth figures. "The unemployment rate has averaged 4.07 per cent over the June quarter so far versus the RBA's forecast of 4.2 per cent," they said, while employment growth was also tracking higher than forecasts. "These aren't large differences, but they do show a better near-term labour market picture than the RBA's starting point in the May Statement on Monetary Policy. "That said, we suspect these data won't sway the market or analysts one way or another on the July RBA board meeting." Treasurer Jim Chalmers said low unemployment was one of the best defences against uncertainty in the global economy. "While other countries have sacrificed much higher unemployment for progress on inflation, Australia has been able to preserve the gains we've made in our labour market at the same time as we've got inflation down and jobs up," he said. Meanwhile, population growth slowed to 0.1 percentage points to 91,133 in the final three months of 2024, as net overseas migration dropped by a fifth. Alongside the slowdown in immigration, a recent recovery in dwelling approvals meant the pace of new housing entering the market was finally on track to meet growth in underlying demand, AMP economist My Bui said. Australia's population was just over 27.4 million people at the end of 2024, the bureau said. Queensland and Western Australia were the only jurisdictions to experience positive net interstate migration, while NSW was the biggest loser. More than 28,000 people abandoned the nation's first state for cheaper housing markets. A surprise fall in jobs will do little to further improve the prospects of a Reserve Bank rate cut as the central bank weighs up the impact of a tight labour market. Australia's unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent in May, but 2500 jobs dropped out of the economy, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday. Despite the result confounding forecasts of a 21,200 gain in employment, economists don't expect the RBA to read too much into it as it followed a jump of 87,600 jobs in April. The fall in employment suggested some "payback" in the labour market, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said. Employment was still up by 2.3 per cent since May 2024, a rise bigger than the pre-pandemic, 10-year average annual growth rate of 1.7 per cent, bureau head of labour statistics Sean Crick said. "This fall in employment, combined with a drop in unemployment of 3000 people, meant that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1 per cent for May," he said. The volatility in employment figures has not been reflected in the jobless rate, which has held within a tight 3.9 to 4.4 per cent range since March 2024. The participation rate fell 0.1 per cent to 67 per cent. "Together, today's numbers imply the labour market is continuing to gradually cool," Mr Sycamore said. The Reserve Bank watches the labour market closely as it is a key influence on inflation. Mr Sycamore expects the RBA to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its next board meeting in July, but the rates market marginally reduced the odds of a July cut to 63 per cent following the latest release. ANZ economists Aaron Luk and Adam Boyton said the labour market was tracking healthier in the June quarter than the RBA expected in its May forecast. But they expect the central bank to ignore some of the noise of the fluctuating employment growth figures. "The unemployment rate has averaged 4.07 per cent over the June quarter so far versus the RBA's forecast of 4.2 per cent," they said, while employment growth was also tracking higher than forecasts. "These aren't large differences, but they do show a better near-term labour market picture than the RBA's starting point in the May Statement on Monetary Policy. "That said, we suspect these data won't sway the market or analysts one way or another on the July RBA board meeting." Treasurer Jim Chalmers said low unemployment was one of the best defences against uncertainty in the global economy. "While other countries have sacrificed much higher unemployment for progress on inflation, Australia has been able to preserve the gains we've made in our labour market at the same time as we've got inflation down and jobs up," he said. Meanwhile, population growth slowed to 0.1 percentage points to 91,133 in the final three months of 2024, as net overseas migration dropped by a fifth. Alongside the slowdown in immigration, a recent recovery in dwelling approvals meant the pace of new housing entering the market was finally on track to meet growth in underlying demand, AMP economist My Bui said. Australia's population was just over 27.4 million people at the end of 2024, the bureau said. Queensland and Western Australia were the only jurisdictions to experience positive net interstate migration, while NSW was the biggest loser. More than 28,000 people abandoned the nation's first state for cheaper housing markets. A surprise fall in jobs will do little to further improve the prospects of a Reserve Bank rate cut as the central bank weighs up the impact of a tight labour market. Australia's unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent in May, but 2500 jobs dropped out of the economy, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday. Despite the result confounding forecasts of a 21,200 gain in employment, economists don't expect the RBA to read too much into it as it followed a jump of 87,600 jobs in April. The fall in employment suggested some "payback" in the labour market, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said. Employment was still up by 2.3 per cent since May 2024, a rise bigger than the pre-pandemic, 10-year average annual growth rate of 1.7 per cent, bureau head of labour statistics Sean Crick said. "This fall in employment, combined with a drop in unemployment of 3000 people, meant that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1 per cent for May," he said. The volatility in employment figures has not been reflected in the jobless rate, which has held within a tight 3.9 to 4.4 per cent range since March 2024. The participation rate fell 0.1 per cent to 67 per cent. "Together, today's numbers imply the labour market is continuing to gradually cool," Mr Sycamore said. The Reserve Bank watches the labour market closely as it is a key influence on inflation. Mr Sycamore expects the RBA to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its next board meeting in July, but the rates market marginally reduced the odds of a July cut to 63 per cent following the latest release. ANZ economists Aaron Luk and Adam Boyton said the labour market was tracking healthier in the June quarter than the RBA expected in its May forecast. But they expect the central bank to ignore some of the noise of the fluctuating employment growth figures. "The unemployment rate has averaged 4.07 per cent over the June quarter so far versus the RBA's forecast of 4.2 per cent," they said, while employment growth was also tracking higher than forecasts. "These aren't large differences, but they do show a better near-term labour market picture than the RBA's starting point in the May Statement on Monetary Policy. "That said, we suspect these data won't sway the market or analysts one way or another on the July RBA board meeting." Treasurer Jim Chalmers said low unemployment was one of the best defences against uncertainty in the global economy. "While other countries have sacrificed much higher unemployment for progress on inflation, Australia has been able to preserve the gains we've made in our labour market at the same time as we've got inflation down and jobs up," he said. Meanwhile, population growth slowed to 0.1 percentage points to 91,133 in the final three months of 2024, as net overseas migration dropped by a fifth. Alongside the slowdown in immigration, a recent recovery in dwelling approvals meant the pace of new housing entering the market was finally on track to meet growth in underlying demand, AMP economist My Bui said. Australia's population was just over 27.4 million people at the end of 2024, the bureau said. Queensland and Western Australia were the only jurisdictions to experience positive net interstate migration, while NSW was the biggest loser. More than 28,000 people abandoned the nation's first state for cheaper housing markets. A surprise fall in jobs will do little to further improve the prospects of a Reserve Bank rate cut as the central bank weighs up the impact of a tight labour market. Australia's unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent in May, but 2500 jobs dropped out of the economy, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday. Despite the result confounding forecasts of a 21,200 gain in employment, economists don't expect the RBA to read too much into it as it followed a jump of 87,600 jobs in April. The fall in employment suggested some "payback" in the labour market, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said. Employment was still up by 2.3 per cent since May 2024, a rise bigger than the pre-pandemic, 10-year average annual growth rate of 1.7 per cent, bureau head of labour statistics Sean Crick said. "This fall in employment, combined with a drop in unemployment of 3000 people, meant that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1 per cent for May," he said. The volatility in employment figures has not been reflected in the jobless rate, which has held within a tight 3.9 to 4.4 per cent range since March 2024. The participation rate fell 0.1 per cent to 67 per cent. "Together, today's numbers imply the labour market is continuing to gradually cool," Mr Sycamore said. The Reserve Bank watches the labour market closely as it is a key influence on inflation. Mr Sycamore expects the RBA to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its next board meeting in July, but the rates market marginally reduced the odds of a July cut to 63 per cent following the latest release. ANZ economists Aaron Luk and Adam Boyton said the labour market was tracking healthier in the June quarter than the RBA expected in its May forecast. But they expect the central bank to ignore some of the noise of the fluctuating employment growth figures. "The unemployment rate has averaged 4.07 per cent over the June quarter so far versus the RBA's forecast of 4.2 per cent," they said, while employment growth was also tracking higher than forecasts. "These aren't large differences, but they do show a better near-term labour market picture than the RBA's starting point in the May Statement on Monetary Policy. "That said, we suspect these data won't sway the market or analysts one way or another on the July RBA board meeting." Treasurer Jim Chalmers said low unemployment was one of the best defences against uncertainty in the global economy. "While other countries have sacrificed much higher unemployment for progress on inflation, Australia has been able to preserve the gains we've made in our labour market at the same time as we've got inflation down and jobs up," he said. Meanwhile, population growth slowed to 0.1 percentage points to 91,133 in the final three months of 2024, as net overseas migration dropped by a fifth. Alongside the slowdown in immigration, a recent recovery in dwelling approvals meant the pace of new housing entering the market was finally on track to meet growth in underlying demand, AMP economist My Bui said. Australia's population was just over 27.4 million people at the end of 2024, the bureau said. Queensland and Western Australia were the only jurisdictions to experience positive net interstate migration, while NSW was the biggest loser. More than 28,000 people abandoned the nation's first state for cheaper housing markets.
Perth Now
03-06-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
Why the RBA opted for smaller rate cut
Global uncertainty on the back of the US President Donald Trump's tariff policy and a weakening Australian economy saw the Reserve Bank of Australia debate an outsized rate cut last month. Minutes from the RBA's May 20 policy meeting show the central bank is still nervous about the impact of Mr Trump's trade policy but wants to move 'cautiously and predictably' in line with market expectations. As such, households were not given an outsized 'insurance against global growth' 50 basis point rate cut. Instead, the bank highlighted the need for monetary policy settings to remain 'predictable at a time of heightened uncertainty'. RBA governor Michele Bullock speaking about the May interest rate cut. NewsWire / Nikki Short Credit: News Corp Australia 'They agreed that developments in the domestic economy on their own justified a reduction in the cash rate target and that the case for that action was strengthened by developments in global trade policy,' the minutes reveal. Ultimately though, the board agreed the case for a 25 basis point rate cut was 'the stronger one' as members were not persuaded that weakening global growth and domestic factors warranted an outsized rate cut. In a silver lining for households, should the impacts of global uncertainty materialise, the RBA board agreed it would need to move to 'expansionary settings' meaning there would be more cuts to the cash rate. The board judged in May however that there was not enough data around the impacts of any global uncertainty to switch to a more expansive monetary policy setting. 'They also judged it was not yet time to move monetary policy to an expansionary stance, taking account of the range of estimates involved, given that inflation was yet to return sustainably to the midpoint of the target range and the staff's assessment that the labour market was still tight,' the minutes read. The RBA board confirmed they have further room to cut rates NewsWire / Nicholas Eagar Credit: NewsWire The board also highlighted they had the firepower left to kickstart global growth should the worst of global uncertainty impact the local economy. 'In finalising the policy statement, members agreed that it was appropriate to convey their commitment to both of the Board's objectives,' the board said. 'They also agreed to convey that policy was well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation of the kind described in the severe downside scenario set out in the May Statement on Monetary Policy.' Meeting for the second time under its new dual-board structure, the RBA cut the national cash rate by 25 basis points, from 4.10 to 3.85 per cent, but RBA governor Michele Bullock revealed a 50 basis point cut had been debated. 'There was an argument and we did debate it (a 50 basis point cut) but it wasn't the strongest argument in the room,' Ms Bullock said at the time. Unemployment Figures She stressed 'inflation hurts everyone', particularly those on lower incomes and renters. Responding to a question from NewsWire on whether households could expect further relief, and what message she had for those doing it tough, she acknowledged Australians had gone through a 'really rough few years', accentuated by sharp rises in everyday prices. 'I would say that bringing inflation down is the best thing we can do to help them, while keeping employment strong,' she said. 'At the moment we are on track to deliver that. I know you're doing it tough, but conditions are improving.'
West Australian
03-06-2025
- Business
- West Australian
‘Not time': Why the RBA took a cautious approach to rate cuts
Global uncertainty on the back of the US President Donald Trump's tariff policy and a weakening Australian economy saw the Reserve Bank of Australia debate an outsized rate cut last month. Minutes from the RBA's May 20 policy meeting show the central bank is still nervous about the impact of Mr Trump's trade policy but wants to move 'cautiously and predictably' in line with market expectations. As such, households were not given an outsized 'insurance against global growth' 50 basis point rate cut. Instead, the bank highlighted the need for monetary policy settings to remain 'predictable at a time of heightened uncertainty'. 'They agreed that developments in the domestic economy on their own justified a reduction in the cash rate target and that the case for that action was strengthened by developments in global trade policy,' the minutes reveal. Ultimately though, the board agreed the case for a 25 basis point rate cut was 'the stronger one' as members were not persuaded that weakening global growth and domestic factors warranted an outsized rate cut. In a silver lining for households, should the impacts of global uncertainty materialise, the RBA board agreed it would need to move to 'expansionary settings' meaning there would be more cuts to the cash rate. The board judged in May however that there was not enough data around the impacts of any global uncertainty to switch to a more expansive monetary policy setting. 'They also judged it was not yet time to move monetary policy to an expansionary stance, taking account of the range of estimates involved, given that inflation was yet to return sustainably to the midpoint of the target range and the staff's assessment that the labour market was still tight,' the minutes read. The board also highlighted they had the firepower left to kickstart global growth should the worst of global uncertainty impact the local economy. 'In finalising the policy statement, members agreed that it was appropriate to convey their commitment to both of the Board's objectives,' the board said. 'They also agreed to convey that policy was well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation of the kind described in the severe downside scenario set out in the May Statement on Monetary Policy.' Meeting for the second time under its new dual-board structure, the RBA cut the national cash rate by 25 basis points, from 4.10 to 3.85 per cent, but RBA governor Michele Bullock revealed a 50 basis point cut had been debated. 'There was an argument and we did debate it (a 50 basis point cut) but it wasn't the strongest argument in the room,' Ms Bullock said at the time. Unemployment Figures She stressed 'inflation hurts everyone', particularly those on lower incomes and renters. Responding to a question from NewsWire on whether households could expect further relief, and what message she had for those doing it tough, she acknowledged Australians had gone through a 'really rough few years', accentuated by sharp rises in everyday prices. 'I would say that bringing inflation down is the best thing we can do to help them, while keeping employment strong,' she said. 'At the moment we are on track to deliver that. I know you're doing it tough, but conditions are improving.'
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Australia central bank says higher US tariffs a drag on global economy
SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia's central bank said on Tuesday that higher U.S. tariffs would drag on the global economy and put near-term downward pressures on prices of traded goods, though the exact impact is hard to assess given the policy uncertainties. In a speech in Brisbane, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said the central bank will closely monitor how trade policies evolve globally, with the higher uncertainty expected to lead to declines in investment, output and employment. "But the unpredictability and unprecedented nature of the current situation makes it hard to be precise on the size of the impact," said Hunter. "Going forward we will be monitoring carefully which assumption is closest to how things unfold." The expected hit to Australia's economy and the labour market was one reason that the RBA cut interest rates to a two-year low of 3.85% last month and opened the door to more policy easing in the months ahead. It also considered a severe downside scenario for global trade and a trade peace scenario where tariffs would be rolled back. "Benchmarking against the scenarios in the May SMP (Statement on Monetary Policy) will help us identify the scenario that best reflects current conditions and the outlook, enabling the Board to adjust policy settings accordingly," said Hunter. The RBA also judged the tariffs would be disinflationary for Australia as Chinese producers, in the face of higher U.S. tariffs, try to redirect their products to other markets. "For countries that are not imposing higher tariffs, such as Australia, this could flow into import prices, making products cheaper and lowering inflation," said Hunter. Headline consumer price inflation held at 2.4% in the first quarter and a key trimmed mean measure of core inflation slowed to 2.9%, taking it back into the RBA's target band of 2% to 3% for the first time since late 2021. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why the RBA opted for smaller rate cut
Global uncertainty on the back of the US President Donald Trump's tariff policy and a weakening Australian economy saw the Reserve Bank of Australia debate an outsized rate cut last month. Minutes from the RBA's May 20 policy meeting show the central bank is still nervous about the impact of Mr Trump's trade policy but wants to move 'cautiously and predictably' in line with market expectations. As such, households were not given an outsized 'insurance against global growth' 50 basis point rate cut. Instead, the bank highlighted the need for monetary policy settings to remain 'predictable at a time of heightened uncertainty'. 'They agreed that developments in the domestic economy on their own justified a reduction in the cash rate target and that the case for that action was strengthened by developments in global trade policy,' the minutes reveal. Ultimately though, the board agreed the case for a 25 basis point rate cut was 'the stronger one' as members were not persuaded that weakening global growth and domestic factors warranted an outsized rate cut. In a silver lining for households, should the impacts of global uncertainty materialise, the RBA board agreed it would need to move to 'expansionary settings' meaning there would be more cuts to the cash rate. The board judged in May however that there was not enough data around the impacts of any global uncertainty to switch to a more expansive monetary policy setting. 'They also judged it was not yet time to move monetary policy to an expansionary stance, taking account of the range of estimates involved, given that inflation was yet to return sustainably to the midpoint of the target range and the staff's assessment that the labour market was still tight,' the minutes read. The board also highlighted they had the firepower left to kickstart global growth should the worst of global uncertainty impact the local economy. 'In finalising the policy statement, members agreed that it was appropriate to convey their commitment to both of the Board's objectives,' the board said. 'They also agreed to convey that policy was well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation of the kind described in the severe downside scenario set out in the May Statement on Monetary Policy.' Meeting for the second time under its new dual-board structure, the RBA cut the national cash rate by 25 basis points, from 4.10 to 3.85 per cent, but RBA governor Michele Bullock revealed a 50 basis point cut had been debated. 'There was an argument and we did debate it (a 50 basis point cut) but it wasn't the strongest argument in the room,' Ms Bullock said at the time. She stressed 'inflation hurts everyone', particularly those on lower incomes and renters. Responding to a question from NewsWire on whether households could expect further relief, and what message she had for those doing it tough, she acknowledged Australians had gone through a 'really rough few years', accentuated by sharp rises in everyday prices. 'I would say that bringing inflation down is the best thing we can do to help them, while keeping employment strong,' she said. 'At the moment we are on track to deliver that. I know you're doing it tough, but conditions are improving.' Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data
