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Forbes
13-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Polish Elections: Conservative Momentum And The Fight For Economic Freedom
Few days before winning the election Poland's conservative presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki ... More spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC, Tuesday, May 27, 2025, in Jasionka, Poland. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, Pool) I have been working with think tanks in Poland since the 1990s, and the progress I have witnessed over the years is truly remarkable. Many challenges remain, but after last week's victory for conservative presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, coupled with good first-round results for Slawomir Mentzen of the Konfederacja (Confederation for Liberty and Independence) alliance, Poland has a chance to continue building support for economic and social policies that lead to prosperity. Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, with your property, are the foundation of prosperity. They also explain why Poland's economy has outperformed that of most of its neighbors. Polish society, long resilient in the face of adversity, has endured centuries of invasions and oppression from powerful countries. In 1655, for instance, the Swedish army invaded what was then the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, setting off a devastating five-year conflict. The following century, in what some have called the most egregious land grab in history, Russia, Prussia, and Austria took over and partitioned Polish territory. Thus, from the late 1790s until the end of World War I, Poland existed only in the soul of its people. Then in the 20th century, of course, the country suffered years of Nazi and Soviet rule. Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union, Poland has embraced market-oriented reforms, drawing strength from its Catholic heritage and valuing life, community, and solidarity. As a result, the country has experienced rapid growth and is steadily closing the income gap with the leading nations of the Western world. Economic freedom in Poland, of course, grew following the fall of communism and jumped again in the 2010s before being negatively impacted by COVID policies. Since then, the Polish economy has continued to grow despite political differences; however, the country has yet to regain the high economic freedom scores it achieved a decade ago. Nevertheless, as the Heritage Foundation's Index of Economic Freedom shows, Poland has maintained high scores in most economic areas. Economic Freedom scores of Poland show a good position on freedom to trade but low scores in ... More government spending In the country's current context, the war in Ukraine, of course, looms large. When Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, I wrote a piece arguing that Poland was back at the forefront of Western civilization; now it is more strategic than ever for the free world. Proving that in their culture, solidarity is much more than a political slogan (or the name of its famous labor movement), generous Poles have since the beginning of the conflict opened their houses to Ukrainians. Initial estimates indicated that over 3 million refugees crossed the border to Poland. Although the war continues, many Ukrainians have returned to their land, yet still close to one million have been granted temporary protected status in Poland, which is currently home to about 2 million Ukrainian citizens. In Poland, any sign of compromise or weakness in supporting Ukraine is enough for someone to be labelled pro-Putin. Most Poles see the current effort to support Ukraine as an opportunity to weaken Russia, its most dangerous geopolitical and strategic enemy. However, President-elect Nawrocki (who takes office on August 6) has had no qualms about seeking and accepting support from President Trump, often accused of being soft on Putin and weak in his support for Ukraine. Regarding the Trump administration, Poland's continuing balance of power and the growth of Konfederacja should allow for continued constructive engagement and the hope to open a new path for Europe. Current President Andrzej Duda was elected by the same coalition forces, with PiS (Law and Justice) as the major party, that gave the narrow win to Nawrocki. A victory by Rafal Trzaskowski, aligned with the policies of Donald Tusk, the current prime minister, would have moved Poland closer to the political forces still dominant in Brussels and farther from today's Washington. As China is a major ally of Russia and is helping with its war of aggression on Ukraine, during my recent visit to Poland, I repeatedly sought opinions on China. In Poland, though, there is almost no talk or awareness of the threat of communist China. The answers I received ranged from 'China is far from us' to 'China's diplomats are not pushy or arrogant, compared to those in the West.' On internal matters, policy players who focus primarily on economic policy have complained that Poland's leading parties, Civic Coalition and Law and Justice, seem satisfied with the economic status quo. The good election results from Konfederacja, a party which, in addition to promoting institutions and laws that protect life, faith, and family, also advocates for increased economic freedom, may in time lead to a more market-friendly center-right government. I have followed Konfederacja since its early days, when it was the creation of one of the most colorful political and intellectual troublemakers I have ever met: Janusz Korwin-Mikke. The party is now divorced from his eccentricities, which, though appealing to some of the most radical voters, alienate the rest. Much like the Libertarian Party in the United States, Korwin-Mikke's party, despite some success, was not taken seriously and struggled to achieve the 5% threshold needed to win seats in Parliament. Things have changed. In the 2020 presidential election, the party's young presidential candidate, Krzysztof Bosak, then in his late thirties, attracted 6.78% of the vote. In the first round of the 2025 election, Slawomir Mentzen, the candidate backed by Konfederacja, attracted 15% of the vote. I had been following Mentzen, also not yet 40 years old, because his allies admired the bold moves of President Javier Milei in Argentina and asked me if I had any way to attract President Milei to Poland or get him to endorse Mentzen. Leaders of think tanks and political parties working to improve rule of law and economic freedom in ... More Poland. Clockwise, from upper left, Jerzy Kwaśniewski (Ordo Iuris), Tomasz Wróblewski (Warsaw Enterprise Institute), Krzysztof Bosak MP (Deputy Marshal of the Sejm), Grzegorz Placzek, MP (Chairman of Konfederacja Parliamentary block). Right: over of the Great Reset document produced by Ordo Iuris, and Mathias Corvinus College (Budapest) The day after Nawrocki's victory, I met with Grzegorz Placzek, the leader of Konfederacja in the Sejm, or lower house. Placzek described to me some of his party's plans. In addition to consolidating the party's vote to remain in third place and become a key partner in future center-right governments, Placzek would like to push for bolder efforts. One possibility is closer collaboration with the Trump administration to form a common front against international agencies that have proven ineffective or are seen as working too closely with the Chinese government or push a leftist or 'woke' cultural agenda. Konfederacja has proposed forming a common cause with the United States and Argentina, leaving the World Health Organization, and establishing an alternative group. Placzek is well-positioned to strengthen ties with Argentina, serving as chairman of the Polish-Argentine Parliamentary Group, which aims to foster collaboration with Argentina's libertarian lawmakers. On the think-tank side, I spent time with leaders of two groups that have consistently produced quality programs and attracted support from a broad donor base. The first of these is Ordo Iuris, founded in 2013, which focuses on the rule of law and the culture and institutions of justice. The other is the Warsaw Enterprise Institute (WEI), a multifaceted pro-free-market think tank founded also in 2013. Last September, in collaboration with the Heritage Foundation, Ordo Iuris convened think tanks from across Europe to discuss the potential impact of current EU policies on transatlantic relations. The effort encouraged Ordo Iuris to collaborate with Hungary's Mathias Corvinus Collegium to produce a document serving as a guide for European reforms. This alternative 'Great Reset' [I will put a link] document is available online in several languages and calls for reestablishing a union based on six founding principles: national sovereignty over EU primacy; national constitutions over judicial activism; representative democracy over technocratic government; subsidiarity and respect for national competencies over centralization; national interests over self-proclaimed EU values; and free speech over ideological control. WEI's work encompasses research, events, and publications. One product that caught my attention is the Institute's Black Book of Government Spending. The book aims to raise awareness of waste and inefficiencies in government. The effort promotes transparency among authorities and fosters incentives for good practices. As it seeks input from all over Poland, it also raises WEI and its market-oriented solutions across the nation. Most other market-oriented think tanks in Poland are fragile, relying on a few donors, well-known figures, or a single main product. The oldest of these is the Adam Smith Centre, founded in 1989, which continues to celebrate 'Tax Freedom Day.' The Civil Development Forum Foundation (FOR) was established in March 2007 by Professor Leszek Balcerowicz and serves as a primary advocate for sound economic policies. The Polish American Foundation for Education and Economic Research, founded in 2000, has helped publish multiple books promoting free markets, organized important programs, and provided numerous scholarships. It is currently in standby mode with minimal programming due to the death of its founder and principal funder, Jan Malek, but there is hope that its programs will soon be reactivated. Am I hopeful for Poland's future? Yes. A few days before the Presidential election, CPAC held its first-ever event in Poland. It was very well attended, with most Polish participants aligned with the opposition to the current government led by Donald Tusk. U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, the highest-level Trump administration official at the event, was extremely well-received. She did not keep quiet about the June 1 presidential election and endorsed Nawrocki. However, neither did The Economist and multiple publications and writers aligned with Brussels, who employed various scare tactics to encourage Poles to vote for Rafal Trzaskowski. The divisions between libertarians and conservatives in many countries have led to left-wing victories. Given the common ground on cultural topics in Poland and the results of this past election, I am confident that political and intellectual differences will not hinder their path to prosperity. Wojciech Popiela, wpopiela@ collaborated with this piece
LeMonde
30-05-2025
- Politics
- LeMonde
In Poland, the grip of the anti-European far right weighs on the presidential election
On May 18, the results of the first round of the presidential election in Poland – the second round is scheduled for Sunday, June 1 – came as a surprise, even a shock. Not only was the liberal candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski, who had been considered the clear favorite throughout the campaign, trailed by his ultraconservative rival, Karol Nawrocki – with 31.3% and 29.5% of the vote – but the far right achieved a breakthrough not seen since the fall of communism. Slawomir Mentzen, of the nationalist libertarian party Konfederacja, secured 14.8% of the vote, and Grzegorz Braun, an openly antisemitic and homophobic royalist, received 6.3%. The surge was especially dramatic among 18 to 29-year-olds, who turned out in greater numbers than any other age group. Among them, Slawomir Mentzen gathered 35% of the vote, while Adrian Zandberg, the representative of the radical left, got 19% (compared to 4.8% across all voters). Grzegorz Braun recorded 5%. Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, PiS), which backs Karol Nawrocki, has over the years shifted toward unabashed nationalism. As a result, far-right parties collectively garnered nearly 53% of the vote. Among young voters, protest votes totaled 60%, with 40% going to the far right. Should these numbers be seen as the rise of a "brown wave" poised to reshape the political landscape? A closer look suggests the results are more nuanced. Protest vote All studies showed that the electorate of Konfederacja – primarily young and male – is not a monolithic ideological bloc. It is volatile, with protest voting often outweighing ideological considerations. Many voters were drawn to Slawomir Mentzen's ultra-liberal promises ("zero taxes," "minimal state," etc.), overlooking other aspects of his platform. This phenomenon was amplified by an effective social media campaign, where short TikTok videos and punchy messages proved more effective than traditional speeches and TV interviews.
Irish Times
29-05-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Pub takes centre stage in presidential race as Polish voters go for another round
Even before 29 million Poles choose a new president on Sunday, many believe their country's political future has already been decided – in a pub three hours northwest of Warsaw. Sunday's presidential run-off is a close race between two very different candidates: Rafal Trzaskowski, the capital's pro-EU, liberal mayor; and Karol Nawrocki, a national conservative historian with Maga-like ambitions. The new head of state, with control of the defence forces and powers to veto legislation, will shape Poland's path in the EU and Nato. And supercharge – or hobble – prime minister Donald Tusk 's efforts to deliver on political promises that took him back to power in December 2023. With just one percentage point separating them, both presidential hopefuls are courting Slawomir Mentzen, a far-right libertarian politician and pub-owner. READ MORE The 38-year-old finished third in the presidential election first round almost a fortnight ago, making his 15 per cent voter bloc now the most valuable commodity in Polish politics. Poland's conservative presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki. Photograph: Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images Govem Mentzen is by far the most popular candidate among younger voters – he took a third of the under-30 vote – and Poland's two presidential front-runners were quick to accept an invitation to his craft brewery and pub in the small town of Torun. It is filled with political bric-a-brac and agitprop and operates a very public list of banned politicians. Metzen posted his conversations from here on his YouTube channel, where he has more than one million subscribers, simultaneously boosting both his political profile and craft beer brand. He promised a candidate endorsement days later. The trip to Torun paid off for Trzaskowski almost immediately when a post-conversation picture of him sharing a beer with Mentzen went viral on social media. Warsaw's 53-year-old mayor needs all the help he can get – and the real prospect of defeat has set alarm bells ringing with Tusk. The liberal prime minister has spent his first 18 months back in power battling on two fronts: a president allied with the opposition Law and Jusice (PiS) party who has vetoed judicial reforms and other legislation; and warring coalition allies who disagree on key election promises, including a more liberal abortion policy. 'I'm sorry, yes, you all expected us to do more, faster and be stronger,' said Tusk at a weekend rally. 'So I ask you: give us the strength, so that we can change Poland as we promised.' As PiS-allied candidate Nawrocki is presenting himself as Poland's last defence against a looming Tusk 'coup'. 'I will be the president of your future, I won't allow our future and our childrens' future to be stolen by those who want the destruction of the Polish state,' he said. Earlier this month Nawrocki was photographed in the White House with Donald Trump , who has promised further US military investment in Poland if Nawrocki wins. Nawrocki has promised a strongly nationalist platform with another migration crackdown and presidential pushback against EU plans to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. 'We are for the Polish farmer, the Polish field and Polish bread at the Polish table,' he told a rally on Sunday in Warsaw. But Nawrocki has struggled to maintain his message in the campaign amid a surge of scandals: over an undeclared second home; alleged links to organised crime and prostitution rings, which he denies; and revelations he participated, in the early 2000s, in organised football hooligan fights. He called them a form of 'noble, masculine combat' and, in the last days of campaigning, began dropping into rally speeches mentions of 'stolen elections'. That has raised speculation that, if he loses, his PiS backers will challenge Sunday's vote as illegitimate. Presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski is also mayor of Warsaw. Photograph: Sergei Gapon/AFP via Getty Images Election analysts are predicting a tight result after polls close at 9pm. The first round attracted a record 67 per cent of voters and post-poll analysis revealed the usual Polish divide: Trzaskowski more popular in liberal western Poland and Nawrocki ahead in more conservative eastern regions. Trzaskowski was also the favourite among Poles voting outside the country, on 37 per cent. However, the Trump-endorsed Nawrocki took 42 per cent of the sizeable US Polish diaspora vote. With such a tight race, polling agencies say the expat vote could swing the final outcome. After stringing along both presidential candidates, on Wednesday Mentzen decided to endorse neither. On a YouTube livestream he said he saw 'no reason' to vote for the 'slippery' Trzaskowski, accusing him of breaking promises and disowning failures. Meanwhile, Nawrocki's life was a 'great cinematic tale', Mentzen said, but after a series of colourful campaign revelations, 'I wouldn't be surprised if there are more such episodes in his past'. With all eyes on him, Mentzen promised to smash the liberal and national-conservative camps that have dominated Polish politics for two decades. His aim is to go mainstream with Confederation, his party that marries libertarian economics with far-right nationalism. 'I don't know what the future holds but it may turn out that, in two years, it'll be Confederation deciding who governs Poland,' said Mentzen to his YouTube audience. 'I intend to end this duopoly and finally bring change to Poland.'
Bloomberg
24-05-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
Polish Ruling-Party Candidate Pushes Back Against Far Right
Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who narrowly won the first round of Poland's presidential election, is pushing back against the far right ahead of his runoff with opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki on June 1. Trzaskowski, a party ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, faced off over Ukraine in a YouTube debate on Saturday with far-right leader Slawomir Mentzen, whose supporters are in play for the two runoff candidates.
Bloomberg
22-05-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
Polish Presidential Hopeful Says Opposes Ukraine Joining NATO
Poland's opposition candidate for president, Karol Nawrocki, said he won't support NATO membership for Ukraine and is 'more critical' than the incumbent toward Kyiv, as he seeks to court far-right voters ahead of a runoff in a closely-contested election. 'The discussion about Ukraine's entry to NATO is pointless,' the Law & Justice party representative told Slawomir Mentzen, a far-right leader who came third in the first round of vote on Sunday, on his YouTube channel. 'The Ukrainian state is not ready for many processes,' he said, pointing to alleged corruption in Poland's eastern neighbor.
