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Asia Times
a day ago
- Politics
- Asia Times
Who are Iran's true allies and will they help if US joins the war?
As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic. While considering a US attack on Iran's nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran's supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him 'an easy target.' He has demanded 'unconditional surrender' from Iran. Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program. So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid? Has Iran's 'axis of resistance' fully collapsed? Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure. This so-called 'axis of resistance' includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran's influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria before it was toppled last year. Members of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) carry images of comrades killed in US airstrikes in western Iraq in 2024. Photo: Ahmed Jalil / EPA via The Conversation These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement. However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network. Hezbollah — once Iran's most powerful non-state ally — has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad's regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region. That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen. The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly-sized contingent of fighters in Yemen. Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran — as the region's only Shiite-led state — religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region. The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata'ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF's more hardline factions, promised to do so: If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation. Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supply flows. Houthi supporters hold anti-US and Israel placards and wave the flags of the Iran-backed 'axis of resistance' during a protest in Yemen's capital. Photo: Yahya Arhab / EPA via The Conversation Will Iran's regional and global allies step in? Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan — the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal. For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel's actions in Gaza. In a sign of Pakistan's importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country's army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour. Pakistan's leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran's president 'unwavering solidarity' in the 'face of Israel's unprovoked aggression.' And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will 'think many times before taking on Pakistan.' These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention. Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war. In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations. These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries — including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — have jointly condemned Israel's actions and urged de-escalation. It's unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US. Iran's key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel's strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council. However, neither power appears willing — at least for now — to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US. Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran's stability. This is due to Iran's long-standing 'Look East' policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy. However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly. Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad's regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia's closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn't want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration. China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts. Ali Mamouri is research fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
France 24
3 days ago
- Politics
- France 24
Iraq's top Shiite cleric warns against targeting Iran's leadership
Sistani said in a statement Thursday that any targeting of Iran's "supreme religious and political leadership" would have "dire consequences on the region". He warned that such action against the Shiite-led Islamic republic could spark "widespread chaos that would exacerbate the suffering of its (the region's) people and severely harm everyone's interests". Sistani urged the international community to "make every effort to end this unjust war and find a peaceful solution" to concerns about Iran's nuclear programme. Sistani, an Iranian, is the highest religious authority for millions of Shiite Muslims in Iraq and around the world, with the power to mobilise a huge following in Iraq. Despite his Iranian roots, Sistani is seen as a key figure in Iraq's recent history and has been known for pushing back against Tehran's growing clout in the country. Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said Thursday that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "can no longer be allowed to exist" after an Israeli hospital was hit during an Iranian missile attack. Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not rule out plans to assassinate Khamenei. US President Donald Trump had earlier said his country would not kill Khamenei "for now", but demanded Tehran's "unconditional surrender" and warned he was weighing military action in the conflict. Israel launched a surprise attack Friday targeting Iran's military and nuclear sites and killing top commanders and scientists, saying it is acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, an ambition Tehran denies. The assault has prompted Iran to retaliate with barrages of missiles on Israel, with residential areas in both countries suffering too. Iraq's National Security Adviser Qassem al-Araji urged the European Union on Thursday to exert pressure on Israel to stop the war, ahead of a meeting between Iran and European powers. With warnings of all-out regional war intensifying, fears are growing over an intervention by Iran-backed Iraqi factions, mostly against American interests in the region. 'Destruction' Akram al-Kaabi, the leader of the pro-Iran group, Al-Nujaba, warned the United States against going after Khamenei. "If you harm a hair" of Khamenei's head "you and your allies will be under our fire," Kaabi said in a statement. "No soldier or diplomat will be spared," Kaabi said. "Every person holding your nationality in our region, as well as all your direct or indirect interest will be a legitimate target," he added. The powerful faction Kataeb Hezbollah said that Trump "made a mistake" when he spoke of Khamenei and warned the US president of "unprecedented calamities and destruction" if he goes into war in support of Israel. In Lebanon, Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah warned against threatening Khamenei, describing it as "an act of recklessness and foolishness" that would have "grave consequences". It "constitutes an offence to hundreds of millions of believers", added the group, which suffered heavy blows in its latest confrontation with Israel last year.
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First Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Will Iran's allies step in if the US joins Israel's war?
Iran has had long-standing strategic relations with several nations. It has found support from Russia and several regional partners, including Pakistan, in the past. However, it remains to be seen whether they will continue to back the nation if the US joins hands with Israel read more As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic. While considering a US attack on Iran's nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran's supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him 'an easy target'. He has demanded 'unconditional surrender' from Iran. Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid? Has Iran's 'axis of resistance' fully collapsed? Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure. This so-called ' axis of resistance' includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran's influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria before it was toppled last year. These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement. However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network. Russian President Vladimir Putin with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. File image?AP Hezbollah, once Iran's most powerful non-state ally, has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad's regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region. That said, Iran maintains a strong influence in Iraq and Yemen. The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly sized contingent of fighters in Yemen. Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran, as the region's only Shiite-led state, religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata'ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF's more hardline factions, promised to do so: If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation. Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 per cent of the world's oil supply flows. Will Iran's regional and global allies step in? Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan, the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal. For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel's actions in Gaza. In a sign of Pakistan's importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country's army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour. Pakistan's leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran's president 'unwavering solidarity' in the 'face of Israel's unprovoked aggression'. And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will 'think many times before taking on Pakistan'. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. File image/Reuters Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war. In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations. These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries, including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel, have jointly condemned Israel's actions and urged de-escalation. It's unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US. Iran's key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel's strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council. However, neither power appears willing, at least for now, to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran's stability. This is due to Iran's long-standing 'Look East' policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy. However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly. Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad's regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia's closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn't want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration. China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts. Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Shafaq News
6 days ago
- Politics
- Shafaq News
Iraq caught between US-Iran axis: Experts debate Baghdad's fate
Shafaq News/ Iraq is no longer a top priority for US foreign policy, according to former Assistant Secretary of State Denise Natali. Speaking Monday at a Chatham House panel in London—attended by Shafaq News—Natali, now a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, stressed that Washington views Baghdad as increasingly aligned with Tehran and is closely watching whether Iraqi authorities will comply with sanctions on Iran. Although the US has not completely disengaged, Natali explained that American involvement in Iraq's state-building and civil society development is steadily diminishing, marked by sharp reductions in institutional support. UK MENA Director Stephen Hickey acknowledged, during the panel, Iraq's efforts to stay neutral amid rising regional tensions but cautioned that its stability remains precarious, urging Baghdad to advance governance reforms, crackdown on corruption, and restructure its security forces to avoid being pulled into a wider conflict. He also recommended deeper ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as a path to regional stability, calling them increasingly constructive actors. Another Speaker, Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs argued that Tehran still clings to its foothold in Iraq, despite growing resistance, warning that Iran perceives Iraq's economic recovery and closer Arab ties as threats to its dominance. 'Iran doesn't want a strong Iraq; it wants a Shiite-led Iraq,' Azizi remarked, adding that Tehran now favors Oman over Baghdad as a diplomatic channel, despite their formal alliance. In addition, Political analyst Sajad Jiyad of Century International urged a recalibration of Iraq-Iran relations, framing the moment as a strategic opening for Baghdad. 'Iran knows the region has changed. It can't keep managing Iraq through the IRGC,' Jiyad observed, referencing Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's recent visit to Lebanon as evidence of Tehran's shifting approach. Jiyad recalled that the last major shift in Iraq-Iran ties came in 2011, following the US troop withdrawal, when Iran's focus turned to countering American presence. Today, he argued, regional realignments give Iraq's current or future leadership a chance to renegotiate the relationship based on the realities of a transformed geopolitical landscape.
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
The Condemnations of Israel Are Half-Hearted
The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here. The countries surrounding Iran have condemned Israel's attack today. Some statements were more florid than others, and some were more convincing. Bahrain, whose monarchy Iran has repeatedly attempted to topple, urged Israel to de-escalate. Azerbaijan, whose secular government is constantly at odds with Iran, 'resolutely' reproached Israel for its attack but gave no indication that it would cease being a resolute ally of Israel and the United States. Iraq, whose Shiite-led government in many ways owes its existence to the Iranians, vowed that it would help Iran retaliate by sending a sternly worded letter to the United Nations. Among the quicker and more vigorous denunciations was Saudi Arabia's. 'The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expresses its strong condemnation and denunciation of the blatant Israeli aggressions against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran,' it said, adding that the attacks were 'heinous.' Green's Dictionary of Slang notes that the word heinous, when used by American teens, has at times meant fantastic, and it is no secret that among the countries that have issued denunciations are many senior officials who would consider the destruction of Iran's nuclear program heinous and rad indeed, an extreeeeeme escalation in the Harold and Kumar sense. Almost all of the countries surrounding Iran have reasons to prefer a weak Iran and to dread a nuclear one. Diplomacy often takes the form of elaborate, staged meetings and statements whose plain meanings differ from what the country's leaders actually feel. What they actually feel is not usually difficult to discern. This lineup of eager denouncers is like the cast of a drawing-room murder mystery, where everyone is a suspect because everyone has a motive. The fact that Israel actually plunged the dagger into the deceased is incidental. Bahrain is ruled by Sunnis and has a mostly Shiite population permanently restless over its servile condition. Azerbaijan, too, is mostly Shiite, but it is proudly secular in orientation, and welcomes Iranians who come across its border to escape theocracy, get drunk, and take off their veils. Aykhan Hajizada, the spokesperson for the Azerbaijani foreign ministry, told me in Baku last year that Iran would sometimes conduct aggressive military drills across the border and complain about Azerbaijan's friendships with Iran's enemies. 'We are very open with them,' Hajizada said. 'We are building relations based on our national-security interests, and not based on the interests of the neighboring country.' A nuclear Iran would effectively end that independence. [Read: What Trump knew about the attack against Iran] But the clearest case of this duplicity (denunciation in public; You know, he kind of had it coming in private) is Saudi Arabia's. 'We don't look to Israel as an enemy,' Saudi Arabia's de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, told me in 2021. 'We look to them as a potential ally' with many common interests. By contrast, he referred to Iran as a neighbor that he 'could not get rid of,' and with whom he would realistically be forced to find a modus vivendi. In 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran made a deal, brokered by China, that restored diplomatic relations and in theory healed the long-standing divisions between the countries. But the fundamental facts of their relationship are irreconcilable. Theirs is not a love marriage. Iran's drones and missiles are aimed at Saudi Arabia's oil fields, and the biggest threat to the kingdom is, and has been for at least three decades, the possibility that Iran would destroy or disrupt its energy industry. Saudi Arabia on its own has no way to counter or deter that threat—which is why the United States and Israel are its natural allies. Iran has additionally fomented open revolt against the Saudi monarchy. In cities in the Shiite-majority Eastern province of Saudi Arabia, where much of the oil industry is, one can still see bullet-pocked walls and collapsed buildings where Saudi security services fought and ultimately crushed an Iranian-backed revolt in 2017. None of these countries wants all-out war. And they certainly do not wish to volunteer themselves to be attacked, should Iran decide that Israel itself is too hard a target, and its allies are safer to pick on. Iran's neighbors have plenty of beef with Israel too, and have populations that would be pleased to watch the Jewish state humbled. But Israel's humiliation, if it must come, can wait. Iran has been unique among regional powers in its tendency to cultivate and arm allies abroad, and to aid those allies in their efforts in order to make trouble for incumbent autocracies, from Cairo to Baku to Sanaa. For Iran to go nuclear, and be able to dictate the terms of these relationships under the leisurely protection of an atomic umbrella, would be catastrophic for them all. Just don't expect them to say so. Article originally published at The Atlantic
