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NBC News
2 days ago
- Politics
- NBC News
Will Israel's airstrikes cause the collapse of the Iranian regime?
With his country having killed some of Iran's top military commanders and rattled its leadership, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says his government's aerial assault on Iran could trigger the collapse of the regime, opening the door to a popular uprising. 'It's impossible to predict, but it could be the result of our mighty action,' Netanyahu told reporters. 'We are changing the face of the Middle East.' That scenario, according to scholars who study Iran, as well as former U.S. and Israeli officials, is unlikely. The theocratic government remains deeply unpopular, but it still has a tight grip on power, and no organized opposition is poised to seize authority, they say. And if there is change at the top, it might come not from a popular uprising but from a coup within the regime, which might produce an even more authoritarian result. Still, the Iranian government is struggling to cope with the attacks. Some experts say that even if Israel's onslaught does not topple the regime, it could inflict permanent damage, leaving it in a weakened state that could embolden opposition activists or fuel internal power struggles inside the theocratic system. After having initially targeted nuclear and missile sites at the start of its air campaign last week, Israel has expanded its target list to include oil facilities, police headquarters and the state television center — all representing crucial elements of the government's political and economic power. 'They're going after the apparatus of repression inside the regime,' said Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank that has called for imposing tougher sanctions and other measures against Iran. If they weaken the security services used to crush dissent in Iran, the strikes could open up more space for opponents of the regime, Dubowitz said. 'I think their hope is we can undermine and distract the security forces and have Iranians take to the streets, as they've been for many years now, and take back their country,' he said. 'It's one of the key pillars of the Israeli strategy.' Wary of foreign interference But Israeli missiles may not be the ideal vehicle for overturning Iran's authoritarian rule, experts said. Hamidreza Azizi, a former professor at Iran's Shahid Beheshti University who is now a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said that several days into the conflict, 'we still see no sign of a popular uprising against the government.' On the contrary, Azizi said, 'images of devastation in civilian areas and the deaths of innocent people are making Iranians — who are inherently patriotic and emotionally connected to their nation — quite uneasy about Israel's ultimate intentions.' Suzanne Maloney, who has written about Iran's politics and advised previous U.S. administrations, said the Iranian people's dissatisfaction with the regime is also coupled with deep national pride and a wariness of foreign interference. 'Iranians are very well understood to resent their government. They're deeply critical of its failures, both in terms of how it has governed the country and how it has represented their interests on the world stage,' said Maloney, a vice president at the Brookings Institution think tank. 'But they also are fiercely nationalistic.' Given Iran's bitter experience with foreign meddling, distrust of outside powers is pervasive, and it is a 'third rail' in Iranian politics since a U.S.-British coup toppled a democratically elected prime minister in 1953, she said. Since it came to power in the 1979 revolution that toppled the country's pro-Western monarch, the Islamic Republic has a long record of repression, using its security services to crush protests and imprison dissidents. The government is also struggling to contain rising discontent over the ailing economy, which has been plagued by rampant inflation and financial misery for millions of Iranians, according to regional analysts and Western diplomats. Officials in Tehran have blamed U.S. sanctions for the economic troubles. Every few years, popular anger erupts in the streets. Most recently, demonstrators vented their outrage after the killing of Mahsa Amini, who died in a hospital in 2022 after the country's morality police arrested her for not adhering to the country's dress code, which requires women to conceal their hair and the shapes of their bodies. Iranian opponents of the regime have had mixed reactions to the Israeli strikes. Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the deposed shah, who ruled Iran for four decades until he was forced out by mass street protests in 1979, said that the regime in Tehran was 'at its weakest point' and that Iranians now had an opportunity to secure democratic rule. 'Now is our moment,' he said on X. Several prominent Iranian activists and filmmakers, including Nobel laureates Shirin Ebadi and Narges Mohammadi, wrote an op-ed calling for an immediate end to the fighting and demanded that the Iranian government halt uranium enrichment work. The group also denounced attacks on civilians by both Iran and Israel and called for a transition to democracy in Iran. 'Deeply committed to Iran's territorial integrity and the inalienable right of its people to self-determination under genuine sovereignty, we believe that continuing uranium enrichment and the devastating war between the Islamic Republic and the Israeli regime neither serves the Iranian people nor humanity at large,' it said. It added: 'Iran and its people should not be sacrificed for uranium enrichment and the ambitions of the Islamic Republic.' Imprisoned reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh — an ardent critic of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — has condemned Israel's barrage, arguing it did not offer a legitimate way to oust the regime. 'I know that some sections of the people are happy with these attacks, because they see them as the only way to change the failed clerical government,' Tajzadeh said in a letter from prison, according to Gooya, a Persian-language news website based in Belgium. 'But even if the war leads to such an outcome, Iran will be left in ruins, where most likely statelessness and chaos will prevail.' Tajzadeh, who was deputy interior minister more than 20 years ago and has favored a rapprochement with the West, called Israel's strikes 'the aggression of a foreign army, on the orders of someone who has been accused of war crimes' — referring to Netanyahu — which, 'in my opinion, lacks political and moral justification and has no precedent in post-constitutional Iran.' So far, there have been no signs of major defections from the country's political leadership, and most Iranians are focused on trying to seek safety amid daily bombing raids from Israel, said Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 'I think people are under aerial bombardment, and they're just thinking about staying alive and staying safe, staying secure. They're not thinking about waging political protests,' he told MSNBC. Although an overwhelming majority of Iranians reject the government's rule, there is no opposition in waiting, and the regime remains heavily armed and organized, Sadjadpour said. 'At the moment, they probably are calculating 'kill or be killed,'' he said. 'And they have their fingers on the trigger right now.' Regime change Unlike their Israeli counterparts, President Donald Trump and his top aides have not encouraged the Iranian people to rise up or invoked the idea of ousting the regime. During his first term, Trump's deputies expressed solidarity with the Iranian people and privately argued that economic sanctions could cause the regime to unravel. But Trump and his current Cabinet are outspoken critics of previous U.S. attempts at 'regime change' in Iraq and elsewhere, and some of Trump's supporters worry the United States could be drawn into another military intervention in the Middle East. Daniel Shapiro, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank who was U.S. ambassador to Israel during the Biden administration, said Israel should stick to a more realistic goal of disabling Iran's nuclear and missile programs and steer clear of trying to shape Iran's internal politics. 'There are certainly plausible scenarios where this becomes a regime-threatening event, but I don't think it's imminent, and I don't think it should be the goal of the military campaign,' Shapiro said. An attempt to change the regime would be a 'massive undertaking' that would depend on factors beyond the control of any outside power, he said. 'That's a recipe for overreach and for getting drawn into a lengthy and potentially fruitless kind of military engagement. The memory is very heavy of what happened to us in Iraq,' Shapiro said. An elite coup? The Israeli assault has exposed widespread vulnerabilities in Iran's security and military establishment, which could fuel power struggles and possible defections, experts said. 'The Tehran regime is unlikely to be toppled by a popular uprising, but it is possible that Iran witnesses an elite coup,' said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at the London think tank Chatham House. Israel's extensive infiltration of Iran's military and government, illustrated by its ability to assassinate top military commanders, shows that Israel most likely has a degree of support among elements of the Iranian regime, Khatib said. Even though those Iranians might not support Israel itself, they 'share with Israel the objective of regime change,' she said. Israel's bid to topple the Iranian government carries serious risks, including producing an even harder-line regime dominated by members of the country's Revolutionary Guard Corps, experts said. 'Given the history of this regime, given what the Iranian people have suffered, I think it's a wrongheaded and ineffective strategy and one that it may, in fact, backfire on Israel,' Maloney of Brookings said. 'Be careful what you wish for. An Iran that is racked by violence and chaos is not going to be a better neighbor,' she added.
Arab News
3 days ago
- Politics
- Arab News
India evacuates students from Tehran as Israel hits civilian sites
NEW DELHI: India's Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday it was moving Indian students out of Tehran, as many sought safety after their universities were shut down amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes. Israeli attacks on Iran started on Friday, when Tel Aviv hit more than a dozen sites — including key nuclear facilities, residences of military leaders, and of scientists — claiming they were aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Daily attacks have been ongoing for the past five days after Iran retaliated with ballistic missile strikes against Israel. As the Israeli military intensified its bombing of civilian targets, hitting Iran's state broadcaster on Monday, stranded foreigners — including 6,000 Indian students — have been struggling to leave. 'Most of the students here were living in apartments, including me and my friend. The first blast in Tehran happened in Sa'adat Abad district, where me and my friend were living,' Hafsa Yaseen, a medical student at Shahid Beheshti University, told Arab News. 'One of our university's nuclear scientists was martyred in these blasts. Situation is really bad.' According to the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, at least 224 people have been killed and 1,481 wounded in Israeli attacks since Friday. Most of the casualties have been reported in Tehran. India's Ministry of External Affairs confirmed in a statement that it was moving those studying at universities in the Iranian capital 'out of the city for reasons of safety.' Yaseen was among a group of a few hundred students moved on Monday to Qom, 140 km south of the capital city. 'Me and my friend were frightened, and we just thought it's our turn now to die. We were literally calling our parents and telling them goodbye,' she said. 'We are not even safe here, because we are still in Iran (and) anything can happen ... We are in constant fear that we might die and our families are more stressed than us. I just want to request the government of India to evacuate us from here as soon as possible.' A group of 110 Indian students from Urmia University of Medical Sciences in northwestern Iran has already been assisted by the Indian authorities to leave through the land border with Armenia. 'All the Indian students who had crossed the Iran-Armenia border have now safely reached the capital city, Yerevan. This includes around 90 students from Kashmir Valley, along with others from various Indian states,' said Nasir Khuehami, national convenor of the Jammu and Kashmir Students Union. 'Their flight from Armenia to Delhi is scheduled for tomorrow, with all necessary arrangements being facilitated in coordination with the Indian authorities. This comes as an immense relief to the families.' The families of those remaining in Iran have been pleading with Indian authorities to also bring them home. 'Please save my daughters. My two daughters study (at) Shahid Beheshti University. They are in great panic — the situation in Tehran is so bad that students are in great panic,' one of the mothers, Mubeena Ali, told Arab News through tears. 'They have been shifted to Qom but they feel afraid ... They are greatly distressed. They want to be evacuated.'
Time of India
4 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Karnataka students in Iran seek state government's help for evacuation
Bengaluru: Students from Karnataka studying medicine at Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, reached out to the state govt for help to evacuate them from Iran. The students are currently with Indian embassy officials amid the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict. The students are in constant touch with their parents. The state govt said one of the students and his parents in Bengaluru reached out to it seeking help in their evacuation. "Nine students are from Karnataka, of whom six are from Bengaluru. One student and his parents contacted us over the phone and expressed their fear and desire to return to India. Office of Non-Resident Committee vice chairperson Aarti Krishna wrote to the ministry of external affairs requesting it to take steps to immediately bring back the students. We are yet to hear back from them," said a senior official. "We are in constant touch with the officials concerned and are personally monitoring the situation," he said. "The students are unable to sleep at night. The conflict zones are 15-20 minutes away from their campus. They can see missiles flying over their hostels. They are extremely anxious and reached out to the university and the Indian embassy," said Fayaz Ali, father of a student in Iran and resident of Austin Town in Bengaluru. According to the parents, there are around 400 Indian students in the university. Exams were underway for the students. "They were supposed to come back by August after the exams get over. However, the exams stopped midway," said Shabab Zehra, mother of Nadeem Hussain. Nadeem is a second-year student at the university. "We are worried that the conflict will escalate and the students will be affected. We want them to come back safely as soon as possible," she said. "The embassy created a WhatsApp group with parents and students, and we are constantly kept posted on the developments. Currently, the students are being taken to a safer city," Fayaz said. Relatives in the state say there are students in other universities too. Hassan Abbas Syed, a class 12 student at Alipur, Gowribidanur, said his sister is pursuing her fourth-year BDS at Tehran University of Medical Sciences where there are three more from Karnataka. "They are being transported to a safer location in North Iran. One of their hospitals is very close to the conflict zone, and a blast happened quite close to it. When I last spoke to my sister, she said they have been instructed not to disclose the location but are being shifted and are in safe hands. Her internet connection has been patchy, and we have not been able to communicate frequently," he said. Union minister HD Kumaraswamy said on X that he spoke to several Kannadigas stranded in Israel via video calls and enquired about their well-being and safety. "I assured them of taking urgent steps to ensure their safe and speedy return to their homeland and will hold talks with @MEAIndia." He said he informed the students that the Union govt has taken "all necessary measures for the safety of Indian citizens in conflict-affected foreign countries..."
NDTV
4 days ago
- Politics
- NDTV
"Saving Ourselves Our Priority": Indian Students Being Evacuated In Tehran
New Delhi / Tehran: As the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, people in Tehran have been warned of a major Israeli retaliation after Iran's ballistic missiles caused significant damage in Tel Aviv and explosions were heard over Jerusalem. People in Iran's capital are abandoning their homes and driving out of the city before missiles from Israel aim to rain down on major Iranian cities. Among those leaving Tehran are students from India, mostly from Jammu and Kashmir, followed by Karnataka and several other states. There are three universities in Tehran where hundreds of Indian students are studying. These are Shahid Beheshti University, University of Tehran, and Iran University of Medical Sciences. These students are being evacuated on buses and are being taken from Iran to the city of Qom, 148 km away. Speaking exclusively to NDTV, students from the Shahid Beheshti University said there are traffic snarls on highways leading out of Tehran. "We are about 40 students per bus, all Indians, being taken out of Tehran. We are heading to the nearest town on the outskirts," said Sheikh Azhan, a student representative on one of the buses. He added that "There is too much of traffic on the roads as lots of people are leaving the city. We are stuck in traffic." Another student representative, Zakir Sheikh, said "We have been in touch with the Indian Embassy officials. For now, we have just been informed about the change of our location - that we are being taken out of Tehran. There has been no confirmation about our return to India just yet." As per data available to NDTV, a majority of the Indian students in Iran are women. Zakir Sheikh confirms that "A majority of the students on my bus are women. In our batch, most of the students are from Jammu and Kashmir, but there were students from Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh too." Sheikh Azhan said that "On my bus, there are some students from Maharashtra and Bengaluru too. We are more than 450 students from Shahid Beheshti University alone. There are three universities from where we all are being evacuated. On my bus there are a few students from another university as well. Since the buses assigned to their university got full, they were accommodated here." "The Indian Embassy has informed us that students from all three universities are being taken out to cities around Tehran. We will stay there for the next few days, while the government will assess what the next course of action will be - whether we will return to India or go back to Tehran, if it is safe for our return, shall be communicated to us later," he added. Mr Azhan said that "We all left our university in a hurry, so we couldn't really eat anything much. The situation is pretty chaotic on the streets, so we don't really know when we may get a chance to have some refreshments." The women students on the bus did not wish to speak at the moment. "They are tired and scared. We all are scared and anxious about what all is happening. Things here are not safe. Our priority is to save our life. We all want to return home safely," Sheikh Azhan said, adding that "We are hearing that some students from the University of Tehran were injured, however, the injuries were minor and they all have joined their friends and are being evacuated. Students from our university are safe so far, by the grace of God." "We couldn't sleep for the last few nights, as we could hear explosions over and around us. We managed to sleep in the day, since the attacks would die down after daybreak. Our university has been very cooperative and helpful so far. We are very thankful and grateful to our university vice-chancellor," Mr Azhan added. The students said that the Indian Embassy has made evacuation plans based on where the universities are located. Those located to the north of the city are being evacuated to a different location and those to the west and south of the city are being taken elsewhere.
Indian Express
4 days ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
‘The war wasn't on TV, it was outside my window': Indian medical students in Iran recall night of bombings and blackout
The sky was glowing with streaks of light and trails of smoke. The roar of fighter jets echoed across the city as sirens wailed in the distance. From her fifth-floor dormitory in Tehran, the thunderclap of a nearby explosion shook the window panes. A repetitive cracking sound—gunfire, perhaps—or another blast nearby. This is how a 22-year-old MBBS student from Hyderabad, studying at Tehran University of Medical Sciences, described the night of June 13. 'We heard a loud thunder-like sound around 3:20 am,' she said. 'Then we saw black smoke. Everyone started running. I heard a fighter jet. Then we heard firing. It felt like the war was literally over our heads.' 'The war wasn't on television. It was outside my window,' she said. The student, who has since been moved to Qom—about 200 kilometres from Tehran—for safety, said their dormitory experienced a blackout and students were unable to eat or sleep for two days. 'Our dean came on Friday and said the dorm is the safest place. But the situation got worse. They started moving students to bunkers and basements back in Tehran across universities. We're safe for now, but terrified.' As the Israel-Iran conflict entered its fourth day Monday, Indian students—many from Jammu and Kashmir—found themselves caught in the crossfire of a war between two nations they have no stake in. 'We are just here to study,' the 22-year-old student said. 'And now we are a part of a war between two countries we don't even belong to.' In a Rajya Sabha unstarred question answered on August 1, 2024, the Ministry of External Affairs confirmed that, as of early 2024, there were about 1,700 Indian students in Iran, many of them enrolled in medicine at institutions like Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, and Islamic Azad University. A 22-year-old second-year MBBS student from Kashmir at Tehran University of Medical Sciences said her dormitory's windows shattered during one of the attacks. 'I don't even know exactly what's happening,' she said. 'But we've been awake for four nights now. Today they bombed a place near our university. It was really bad.' Another student at Shahid Beheshti University said they spent Saturday in the underground section of their residence. 'The noise did not stop at all. The defense activity is all around us. It's like living in a war movie, but we're in it. We panicked for a day because we heard that Iran's defence system was down. We are unable to make any movement.' 'The sky was full of flashes last night,' said one second-year student. 'Our universities are providing us with food and other support, but we want our government to initiate evacuation. We are looking at students from other countries who are being evacuated back to their own homes and we want to request the government of India to do the same.' 'I haven't been able to keep in touch with my family regularly as the internet connectivity is very poor here. My family is very worried about me. My mother has not stopped crying for two days now,' the student added. On Sunday evening, a strike near the Hujjatdost dormitory for international students at Tehran University of Medical Sciences allegedly injured two Indian students from Kashmir. Both are stable and were shifted to Ramsar, according to the Jammu and Kashmir Students Association (JKSA). In a letter addressed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on June 16, the JKSA appealed for 'urgent intervention and evacuation' of Indian students from Iran, calling it a 'humanitarian emergency.' 'These students had traveled to Iran to pursue professional education, particularly MBBS, due to the country's economically viable academic infrastructure,' the letter reads. 'Now, they find themselves in the middle of an active military zone, fearful for their lives.' JKSA's national convenor Nasir Khuehami said students have reached out repeatedly to the Indian Embassy in Tehran seeking evacuation, but have received no concrete assurance. 'People from many countries have already left,' the letter quotes a parent as saying. 'But our children remain. Nobody is asking about us. We feel abandoned.' Some universities have begun relocating students to smaller cities like Qom and Ramsar, but many remain in high-risk areas. 'We only got moved after the bombing came very close and some students got hurt,' said the student now in Qom. 'Until then, we were told to stay put in the dormitories or asked to approach the Indian embassy.' Even as the MEA maintains that students are being relocated in accordance with local advisories, many say they are in the dark about the next steps. 'We just want to go home. Before it's too late,' the 22-year-old said. Amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel, the Indian Embassy in Tehran has facilitated the relocation of some Indian students to safer areas within Iran, the Ministry of External Affairs said Monday. In response to evolving risks, the High Commission is also closely monitoring the security situation and taking steps to ensure the safety of Indian nationals. 'Other feasible options are also under examination. Further updates will follow,' the statement added. The HC in Tehran said, 'The Embassy is in touch with community leaders regarding welfare and safety.' The overall Israeli death toll has reached 22. At least 45 Iranian women and children have been killed and 75 others injured since Friday, government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said at a press conference today. According to Iran's health ministry, the total death toll from Israeli strikes has risen to at least 224. A military spokesman from Israel also said that Israel had achieved aerial superiority over Iran and had destroyed more than a third of Iran's surface-to-surface missile launchers. Indian students are being relocated, according to the MEA.
