9 hours ago
Trump struck Iran — but North Korea is a different story
Iran strike hardens Kim Jong-un's nuclear resolve, pushes Pyongyang deeper into China-Russia orbit, say experts
US President Donald Trump's decision to authorize airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities has been widely seen as reinforcing North Korea's long-held belief: that nuclear weapons are essential for regime survival.
The strike would further dim the already unfavorable prospects for nuclear dialogue with Washington and accelerate Pyongyang's push for deeper military cooperation with Russia.
Still, analysts in Seoul stressed that North Korea's case is fundamentally different from Iran's.
Not only does Pyongyang already possess nuclear weapons and advanced delivery systems, it also maintains a distinct rationale and motivation for nuclear armament — unlike Tehran, whose program is framed around deterrence and national pride, Pyongyang's is centered on the survival of the Kim regime.
One of the most significant differences, observers noted, is that the likelihood of Trump ordering a similar strike on North Korean nuclear facilities is considered extremely low.
A key reason lies in North Korea's counterstrike capabilities: intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US mainland and massed artillery aimed at densely populated areas of Seoul.
Joung Kyeong-woon, a senior research fellow at the Seoul Defense Forum, pointed out that densely populated areas — including the Seoul metropolitan area and the city of Goyang — are well within range of North Korean artillery.
'The primary reason North Korea cannot be attacked lies in the fact that we are essentially held hostage by its artillery — far more easily usable than nuclear weapons,' Joung told The Korea Herald. "This reality was confirmed when South Korea opposed, and then-US President Clinton ultimately abandoned, the idea of a surgical strike."
Then-President Kim Young-sam opposed the US proposal to strike the Yongbyon nuclear facility during the 1994 nuclear crisis under the Clinton administration.
North Korea can launch immediate strikes on the densely populated South Korean capital and its vicinity using artillery systems such as 170mm self-propelled guns and 240mm multiple rocket launchers, in addition to missiles targeting South Korea, including nuclear-capable solid-fuel short-range missiles like the KN-23.
'Since then, North Korea has secured layered deterrence through its possession of various medium- and long-range ballistic missiles, in addition to nuclear weapons,' Joung said.
Joung further explained that North Korea's deeply fortified underground nuclear facilities are nearly impossible to neutralize.
'North Korea's key nuclear and missile facilities are located hundreds of meters underground, beneath solid bedrock in the mountainous regions of the country's northwest," Joung said. 'There are no existing weapons capable of directly destroying them — not even tactical nuclear weapons.'
Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University's Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, pointed out, 'North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons and second-strike capabilities are the biggest constraints on a US airstrike" against nuclear facilities in North Korea.
In April 2025, Gen. Xavier Bruson, the commander of US Forces Korea, testified before the House Armed Services Committee that the 'DPRK's chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons programs and formidable missile force (ballistic and cruise) pose a threat to the US homeland, US forces in the Indo-Pacific, and allied nations."
Pyongyang has formalized a preemptive, or first-use nuclear policy in accordance with the law on North Korea's policy on nuclear forces, promulgated in September 2022.
'This marks a shift from its previous stance of using nuclear weapons solely for defensive purposes, allowing their use also for repelling or retaliating against an enemy's invasion or signs of an impending attack,' Lim said.
The roles of Russia and China also set North Korea apart from Iran.
'Unlike the case of Iran, Russia is obligated to intervene automatically under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between North Korea and Russia," Lim said.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, which stipulates a mutual defense obligation, in June 2024, during Putin's visit to Pyongyang.
'China is likely to view a US airstrike on North Korea's nuclear facilities as a direct threat to stability on the Korean Peninsula and to security along the China–North Korea border," Lim added.
Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, pointed out that 'China and Russia are better positioned to help Pyongyang than Tehran.'
'The North Korean case is very different," Easley said.
More importantly, experts in Seoul underscored that the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities is likely to have far-reaching implications for North Korea — reinforcing Pyongyang's nuclear posture, deepening its distrust of Washington, and reshaping its approach to diplomacy and military cooperation.
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, pointed out that what matters to South Korea is 'the impact on the Korean Peninsula and how North Korea perceives the situation."
'North Korea is likely thinking that its choice was the right one following the US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities. It will further solidify its belief that 'possessing nuclear weapons is the only means of survival' and will continue to maximize the legitimacy of its nuclear possession,' Kim said.
'Beyond the economic shock, this crisis is highly likely to trigger widespread security instability on the Korean Peninsula and lead to a fundamental shift in the strategic environment,' Kim added.
Lim said Trump's decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities 'has a significant impact on North Korea's foreign policy.'
'North Korea will reinforce the legitimacy of its existing policy that prioritizes regime survival and nuclear weapons development, and expand military cooperation rooted in anti-Western solidarity — particularly with Russia and China,' Lim said.
'It will also shift further toward deepening skepticism of inter-Korean dialogue and negotiations with the United States.'
The US military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities will further deepen North Korea's distrust of the US — already hardened by Washington's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, or JCPOA, in 2018 and the breakdown of the 2019 North Korea–US summit in Hanoi during the first Trump administration.
