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The Guardian
2 hours ago
- Business
- The Guardian
‘They feel betrayed': how Reform UK is targeting votes in Britain's manufacturing heartlands
When Nigel Farage called for the nationalisation of British Steel on a visit to the Scunthorpe steelworks this spring, it was a marked change in direction for a man who had spent almost all of his political career campaigning for a smaller, Thatcherite state. Two years earlier, he had questioned why British taxpayers' money should be thrown into keeping the fires of the very same blast furnaces burning. Back in 2018 he told an interviewer: 'I supported Margaret Thatcher's modernisation and reforms of the economy. It was painful for some people, but it had to happen.' After gaining a fifth MP and sweeping to a string of victories in England's local elections last month, his Reform UK is coming for Labour in places Keir Starmer's party once considered its traditional heartlands: the former mill towns, pit villages and workshops of northern England and the Midlands, the steel towns of south Wales and the shipyards of Scotland. Farage's success in what journalists and politicians know as the 'red wall' – ripped from Labour control by Boris Johnson in 2019 – is no coincidence. The targeted campaign plotted from Reform's Millbank Tower headquarters overlooking the River Thames has the general election in 2029 squarely in mind. Rightwing populists around the world are increasingly campaigning on the consequences of deindustrialisation: from Donald Trump's efforts to champion the US rust belt to Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) targeting east German auto workers. Railing against net zero, sky-high energy prices and threats to sovereignty – after supply chain disruption in the Covid crisis, and a fracturing geopolitical landscape – are central to the playbook. There is, however, an irony of a privately educated former commodities trader and career politician offering hope for Britain's deindustrialised communities, where successive governments have promised – and largely failed – to turn around decades of living standards stagnation. In the first on a series on the battle for Britain's deindustrialised areas, the Guardian maps out the rise in support for Reform, and speaks to its campaigners, Labour, the Conservatives, union leaders and economists to document the high-stakes fight. From the vantage point of the 34th floor of the Shard, Zia Yusuf explained how Reform would unshackle the City of London by cutting wealth taxes and deregulating bitcoin. But the party's then chair had his sights elsewhere at the same time. The former Goldman Sachs banker and millionaire startup founder said there was good reason why working-class voters were turning to Reform. 'If you go and speak to people who live in these communities, they just feel completely betrayed,' he said. 'I spent a lot of time in Runcorn. A lot of this is driven basically by a political class that's never really thought about the experience of people living in these areas. And Nigel speaks to those people. '[As with] one of the things Trump is trying to do – whatever your views on the approach he is taking – I think we've got to manufacture more things here. We've got to have energy security. We can't be in a crazy situation where we're unable to produce primary steel.' The message of reindustrialisation is viewed as a unifying theme for Reform's policies. In the pivot to the economic left, Farage's road trip has taken him to Runcorn and Newton Aycliffe, County Durham – where Reform triumphed in elections last month – and the steel towns of Scunthorpe and Port Talbot. In Port Talbot, the south Wales town that recently lost its blast furnaces, he demanded their reopening – along with the valleys' coalmines. However, Labour is fighting back. Rachel Reeves placed investment and regional economic 'renewal' at the heart of her spending review last week, namechecking places that would be sprayed with cash. The government's long-awaited industrial strategy, due on Monday, is designed to bolster manufacturing, and there are hopes that it will tackle sky-high energy prices for industry. Such is the threat in Labour's old heartlands that Starmer used a hastily arranged visit to a St Helens glass factory last month to decry Reform for its 'fantasy economics', comparing Farage to Liz Truss. Will Jennings, the professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southampton, said: 'The fact they are focusing their campaigns there are because the sorts of voters drawn to their messages are there. 'The structure of support for Reform, much like for the Brexit party and Ukip before it, very much tends to be in particular areas, described often, sometimes unhelpfully, as 'left-behind towns'. They tend to be older, have former manufacturing industries, tend to be distant from Westminster, and tend to have suffered economic loss.' Reform came second to Labour in 89 constituencies at the 2024 general election, running Starmer's party closest in the 103-year-old south Wales Labour stronghold of Llanelli, a steel town once famous for manufacturing tinplate. Most of the constituencies are in the north and Midlands. It is these seats where the 2029 battle will be most fierce. Analysis by the Guardian shows these target seats have a higher share of manufacturing jobs than the country at large, demonstrating that, despite decades of industrial decline, they remain more dependent than most on steel, car manufacturing and chemicals. Overall they account for a fifth of Britain's industrial base. Including towns such as Redcar, Wigan and Rotherham, the average share of manufacturing employment is 12.3%, compared with 8.8% for the UK as a whole. The seat of Washington and Gateshead South, home to the vast Nissan factory near Sunderland, has the highest share, at 35.3%. Separate research by the Trades Union Congress shows Labour seats with the most manufacturing jobs are more likely to have Reform as the second party (34% of seats), compared with the average across all Labour constituencies (22%). Recent predictions from MRP models show Reform would win at least 180 seats if an election was held tomorrow, including nearly all of the places where it placed second to Labour in 2024. Most of the seats cover towns that have been hit hard economically by manufacturing decline. When Margaret Thatcher came to power in 1979, Britain's industrial base was already dwindling from its peak in the early 20th century, yet still contributed about 30% to GDP. Many areas were also still dominated by industry – including Hartlepool, Burnley and Stoke-on-Trent, where more than half of all jobs were in manufacturing. The deindustrialisation of the 1980s was, however, brutally fast as the UK transitioned to a more services-oriented economy, reliant on imported goods. Today manufacturing accounts for about a tenth of annual output. But Reform is not only targeting nostalgia for a bygone age when Britain made things. When the factories closed, the jobs they offered were either not replaced or were supplanted by lower-paid, insecure work. Whole towns have suffered economically as a result, falling behind the rest of the country despite the promises of successive governments to turn things around. Austerity made matters worse. Last month, research by academics at the University of Staffordshire showed cuts since 1984 have disproportionately affected coalfield and deindustrialised areas, including reductions in welfare and benefit worth £32.6bn between 2010 and 2021. Andy Haldane, the former Bank of England chief economist, said: 'Whichever lens you look at – economic, social, environmental – those places have been lost, and in that sense they have been left behind. And if not overlooked, then underinvested in, systematically, over at least a generation. If not two. 'The longer that has gone on and has turned into generational stasis, or a lack of social mobility, the greater people in those places have willingness to seek redemption elsewhere. Brexit was that, almost a decade ago. And Reform might be it now.' Haldane, the architect of levelling up, and a key figure in the last government's industrial strategy, said Farage had effectively become a 'tribune for the working classes'. The Guardian's analysis shows Reform's target seats would have an average ranking on the English index of multiple deprivation of 92, out of 543 places in total, with 1 being the most deprived. The index brings together a wide range of data sources to build a picture of deprivation, including income, work, education, health and crime rates. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion Average wages are £65 a week lower than the UK average. Unemployment, economic inactivity and the rate of jobless benefit claims are higher. To track the rise of Reform, Labour researchers have been using data from parliamentary petitions as a straw poll to see if the party is growing in their local area. Analysts are poring over data from the 'Call a General Election' online poll, launched within months of the last one, and signed by 3 million people. Signatories have to enter a postcode, enabling support to be plotted geographically. Hotspots included Essex and Lincolnshire – Reform strongholds. 'We're looking at how active they are, where we can assign a high probability that it [a petition] is being driven by Reform or their organised groups via WhatsApp,' said one adviser to a Labour MP. Almost all the Reform target seats backed Brexit, including 15 Labour won from the Tories in 2024. Most had only been Tory since 2019, when many decades-old Labour seats backed Boris Johnson's 'levelling up' and 'get Brexit done' messages. On average, leave voters tend to be more socially conservative and anti-immigration. Many 'red wall' MPs are pushing Starmer to adopt a tougher stance on immigration as a result, including the Blue Labour caucus founded by Maurice Glasman. Reform has pushed hard on the issue, in a high-stakes campaign after last summer's riots across the UK – including in many post-industrial towns. Experts said economic conditions alone did not explain anti-migrant views or justify rioting, but that austerity and stalling living standards fuelled grievances and mistrust of institutions. Luke Telford, a criminal and social policy academic at the University of York and author on Brexit and deindustrialisation, said: 'The key narratives we heard in the months after [the riots] was it is all about the far right and social media. 'Undoubtedly that's an important contributor to the outbursts of inarticulate rage we saw. But that rage doesn't occur in a vacuum, it is bound to certain social, cultural and economic conditions that combined. 'It's certain that the areas among the most deprived, were among those with high levels of rioting. It's impossible to ignore that kind of correlation.' However, fetishising industrial jobs and prioritising the restoration of British manufacturing might not be the best route to an economic renaissance. Not least because England's regions are more economically and culturally diverse places than some in Westminster give them credit for. Many economists say the idea is riddled with misunderstanding about modern Britain, where its strengths mainly lie in high-value services, rather than on low-paid production that is at risk of being automated away. Most Britons think manufacturing is important for the economy. Most parents do not want their children to pursue a career in the sector. 'I don't think you have to replace manufacturing job with manufacturing job in a Trump-like fashion to resist the rise of populism,' said Haldane. 'But you do need to replace them with something that is at least as good, in terms of quality of work, pay, security and a degree of pride around it. And you do need to invest in the supporting infrastructure. Whether that's transport, housing, or social infrastructure – like youth clubs and parks.' Reindustrialisation runs like a seam of coal through the rhetoric of rightwing populists worldwide – seen most prominently in Trump's Make America Great Again campaign to 'bring back' factory jobs to rust belt states. Much of the intellectual driving force behind reviving industry emanates from the US. The economist Oren Cass and his American Compass conservative thinktank, with close ties to JD Vance in particular, has promoted a 'new right' strategy prioritising a pro-worker, pro-trade union, pro-industry agenda that is scathing of corporate America. Cass was among speakers – including Farage and Kemi Badenoch – at a London conference held by the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (Arc) this year, sharing a stage with Michael Gove, the Spectator editor and former Tory cabinet minister. Founded by the Canadian psychologist and self-help author Jordan Peterson and the Tory peer Philippa Stroud, Arc's financial backers include the British hedge fund manager Paul Marshall and the Dubai-based investment firm Legatum – who also co-own GB News, where Farage has a prime-time show. Another figure is Matthew Goodwin, also a GB News commentator and regular speaker at Reform rallies. An ex-academic, he studied what he calls the 'realignment' of British politics, whereby the left has shifted to supporting liberal, metropolitan values, allowing the right to hoover up more socially conservative, working-class voters. Farage and Trump share common ground in promising to roll back net zero – ostensibly to boost manufacturing jobs in heavier polluting sectors, including oil and gas, coal, steel and chemicals. And both are courting trade union members and their worries over foreign competition, the impact of decarbonisation and high energy costs on heavy industry. Gary Smith, the general secretary of the GMB union, which includes offshore workers in Scotland among its members, has called for an 'honest debate' about Labour's plans for industry. He told the Guardian that net zero advocates on the left risked fuelling support for Reform by leaving workers out of the debate. 'Climate fundamentalism and rightwing populism are two cheeks of the same backside,' he said. 'We need to have a programme about jobs and apprenticeships to bring back hope. Neoliberalism is dead and globalisation as we knew it is over. Working-class people aren't voting for cheap TVs and training shoes. They want their jobs back.' At an event in Westminster late last year to lobby Labour MPs on high manufacturing energy costs, GMB's shop stewards were approached uninvited by the Reform deputy leader, Richard Tice, trying to curry their favour. But while Reform can count on support from some union members, the labour movement's leaders are furious at its overtures. 'We wouldn't talk to those fuckers. Load of posh boys hanging tough for the working class? They can go fuck themselves,' said one union boss. Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the TUC, said: 'The hypocrisy is stunning. This is a guy [Farage] who was hanging on the coat-tails of Donald Trump. He turns up at Scunthorpe saying he wants to save British Steel at the same time as his mate in the White House is slapping tariffs on steel and could cost jobs across Britain's manufacturing base. 'In industrial communities there is a lot of cynicism about politics and whether it can make a difference. But it can make a tangible difference to peoples lives who is in Downing Street.' For Labour, the challenge from Farage showed the importance of an 'ambitious' industrial strategy, he said. It could be central to its hopes of winning a second term.
The Sun
11 hours ago
- Business
- The Sun
Energy costs are killing our industries and communities… and they'll kill Labour too unless they bring them down
THE steelworks, chemical plants and paper mills that criss-cross our country are the lifeblood of so many communities across the UK, providing good jobs and supporting local economies. Work in these plants can often be tough. But they are highly-skilled, well-paid and secure jobs for people to work in throughout their careers. 5 5 5 A hard day's work is rewarded with the knowledge your graft is going into producing valuable goods for some of the nation's most needed goods, such as the steel for our warships, chemicals used in the production of antibiotics for cancer treatments, or indeed the paper for your daily newspaper. These sectors provide a sense of pride and place to communities. Think of the smoke piling from the furnace towers at the steelworks in Scunthorp e, or the cranes stretching over Port Talbot. Images that define towns, giving them a part in the story of our complex modern world. Greasy spoon And it's not just the people directly employed in these factories and the wider supply chain that are dependent on the factories and manufacturing sites. The family-run greasy spoon that fuels workers before a long shift. The kids' football club sponsored by the local plant. The local pub where workers congregate after a busy week. Without our industrial sector, the bedrocks of communities wouldn't exist. But new research from the Jobs Foundation finds these roles are at risk. In 1999, the UK had the fourth-largest industrial base in the world, with more than four million workers. Today, the UK has just the 11th largest. In this period, we have gone from more than four million people employed in the manufacturing sector, to just two and a half million, with little growth in value added over the past 30 years. Steel production has fallen from 12million tonnes in 2013 to 4million in 2024. Last of Redcar steelworks demolished with 105,000 tonnes of steel brought down in 30 seconds- Between 2021 and 2024, chemical output has fallen by 40 per cent, and aluminium and paper mills have been shuttered. We've been through this before. In the Eighties, the Thatcher government oversaw a dramatic turnaround in the economic fortunes of the UK. But in this process of national economic revival, certain communities, such as those centred around coal mines, were devastated. Not enough thought was put into the transition. And this is a mistake which we risk repeating today. UK factories and plants pay more than three times as much for their energy as similar users in Germany, and seven times the cost paid by businesses in France. This time, deindustrialisation isn't happening as part of a coherent economic strategy. Instead, high energy prices are allowing us to sleepwalk into the decimation of UK industry. Everyone is now familiar with the spike in energy costs in recent years, with the energy price cap for households. But the situation is even worse for industrial users. UK factories and plants pay more than three times as much for their energy as similar users in Germany, and seven times the cost paid by businesses in France. With these costs, it's no wonder that industrial output across the UK continues to dwindle, simply unable to compete with cheaper production costs overseas. And as our competitiveness falls away, so too do the good jobs that energy-intensive industries provide. We also mustn't forget that energy costs are crippling other sectors too. Empty shops fill high streets, as hospitality and retail businesses can't keep up with the ever-increasing cost of keeping the lights on. 5 And we aren't creating good new jobs in the sectors of the future like AI and data centres, because they also require a lot of energy to operate. There is much talk about how new, clean energy will provide us with abundant energy, lower prices and a host of good new jobs. Roll the dice Promises of new jobs in clean energy are just that: Promises. Promises that might come in the future, but might not. Jobs across heavy industry exist in the present, and time has taught us that once these jobs go, they don't come back. We must do everything that we can to protect them. If Labour wants to have a chance of holding these seats at the next election, the upcoming industrial strategy must include concrete policies to bring energy costs down. Since the last election, Labour MPs represent the vast majority of seats where our industrial bases are located. But that could quickly change. Our research shows Nigel Farage and Reform is poised to sweep the majority of constituencies that are most reliant on jobs in energy-intensive industries at the next election. And who could blame voters in these constituencies, watching jobs in their local areas at risk through no fault of their own, for wanting to roll the dice with Reform. If Labour wants to have a chance of holding these seats at the next election, the upcoming industrial strategy must include concrete policies to bring energy costs down. This is in the country's best interests too. Industry gives purpose to communities, dignity to workers, and protects our national security. Let's do our part to protect it. 5
BBC News
3 days ago
- Business
- BBC News
Model of Saudi prince's Sarafsa yacht sells at auction for £30,200
A model of a £55m yacht designed for a Saudi prince has sold for £30,200 at was part of a sale of silverware, artwork and furnishings previously housed on Sarafsa, a six-deck, 269ft (82m) superyacht that was owned by Prince Fahad bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz al model, which once graced the vessel's main saloon, measures just over 4ft (1.2m) in length and was commissioned in 2008 when the yacht was built. The lots, sold by Eddisons auctioneers of Scunthorpe, also included a pair of goblets believed to have belonged to the former king of France, Louis XVI. The items became available after the yacht was sold in April 2023 to an undisclosed bidder. The asking price at the time of the sale was €65m (£55.4m), according to the broker Paul Cooper said the sale was one of the most unusual they had hosted."We don't get many superyachts in Scunthorpe - or their contents," he said."Everything has the name of an internationally famous jeweller, silversmith, porcelain manufacturer, glassmaker or artist attached," he Cooper said there had been a lot of interest in the model of the Sarafsa, along with a second smaller version made by the celebrity London jeweller Theo on the Louis XVI goblets also hit four figures weeks before the auction, he said. The Sarafsa was built in 2008 and, at one point, was the largest motor yacht to be built in a British yard. It included accommodation for 14 people, quarters for 12 staff and cabins for a further 23 crew also featured a grand piano lounge, cinema, spa, swimming pool, gym, helipad, car garage and a saloon modelled on the "grandest hotels of Monaco". Listen to highlights from Lincolnshire on BBC Sounds, watch the latest episode of Look North or tell us about a story you think we should be covering here.
Daily Mail
3 days ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
Network Rail strikes lifeline £500m deal with British Steel to help save the Scunthorpe blast furnaces
Network Rail has struck a lifeline £500million deal with British Steel to help save the Scunthorpe blast furnaces – but the industry is still facing punitive 25 per cent US tariffs. The agreement, for British Steel to produce 337,000 tonnes of rails over five years, safeguards 2,700 jobs. But the industry remains in peril unless the Government can finalise its trade deal with the Trump administration and have tariffs removed. Otherwise, the charge would rise from its interim level of 25 per cent – covering UK steel imports while trade deal discussions are ongoing – to the 50 per cent levied on all other countries. And the rail-supply deal follows outcry after the state-owned track and infrastructure company put a £140million steel contract for overhead electrical installations out for tender on the open market last month, as revealed in The Mail on Sunday. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander, who yesterday visited Scunthorpe steelworks to finalise the deal, said it 'truly transforms the outlook for British Steel'.
BBC News
4 days ago
- Business
- BBC News
Saudi prince's superyacht contents go to Scunthorpe auction
Silverware, artwork and furnishings from a "floating palace" designed for a member of the Saudi royal family are set to go under the hammer in items were previously housed on Sarafsa, a six-deck, 269ft (82m) superyacht which was owned by Prince Fahad bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz al lots, which will be sold on Wednesday, include a pair of goblets believed to have belonged to the former king of France, Louis Cooper from Eddisons auctioneers said: "The Sarafsa was a floating palace. Everything has the name of an internationally famous jeweller, silversmith, porcelain manufacturer, glassmaker or artist attached." The items became available after the yacht was sold in April 2023 to an undisclosed bidder. The asking price at the time of the sale was €65m (£55.4m) according to the broker vessel was built in 2008 and, at one point, was the largest motor yacht to be built in a British yard. It included accommodation for 14 people, quarters for 12 staff and cabins for a further 23 crew Sarafsa also featured a grand piano lounge, cinema, spa, swimming pool, gym, helipad, car garage and a saloon modelled on the "grandest hotels of Monaco".Mr Cooper said: "The silver is being auctioned in 70 lots, ranging across sets of just about every imaginable piece of cutlery."We have snail forks, oyster forks, parmesan spoons, ice cream spoons, cheesecake knives and hallmarked silver sugar tongs."The yacht's guests dined off the ivy and white ceramic tableware of Augarten Wein and they drank from fine French crystal - it's all Baccarat and Royal de Champagne."The auctioneers believe the items, which they described as a "treasure trove", would have cost over £1m when they were first purchased. Listen to highlights from Lincolnshire on BBC Sounds, watch the latest episode of Look North or tell us about a story you think we should be covering here.
