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CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Gold trounced treasuries, dollar, but biggest precious metals bull market trade may be moving
Precious metals have been on a tear this year, with gold, silver and platinum all posting returns above 20%, as the alternative asset class that has long been an investor safe haven during times of market volatility. With gold recently hitting all-time highs, and silver reaching a price level on Tuesday that was its highest since 2011, and platinum up over 35% year-to-date, all have trounced the traditional U.S. financial system based safe-haven assets — treasuries and the U.S. dollar. What's taking place is a combination of the safe-haven trade occurring at the same time as concerns about the U.S. deficit and the de-dollarization wave among foreign central banks amid political shifts since President Trump's election and a global realignment of interests. Gold is up about 27% so far in 2025, "yet U.S. treasuries are kind of meandering around and it's not really providing the same safe haven experience that treasuries and the U.S. dollar traditionally played," said Sprott Asset Management CEO John Ciampaglia on a recent edition of CNBC's ETF Edge. In some respects, gold's movement has aspects of the non-traditional, acting a little more like "digital gold" — i.e. bitcoin — with the safe-haven metal moving up alongside the cryptocurrency. If that's the case, Jan Van Eck, CEO of ETF and mutual fund company VanEck, says that gold has some catching up to do with its new rival. "Thirty-seven million Americans own exposure to gold," he said on "ETF Edge" alongside Ciampaglia. "Guess how many own exposures to bitcoin? 50 million Americans," he said, citing the results from one recent survey. "That makes a lot of sense to me, because people look at those as a store value. And over the last couple of years a lot of the appreciation has gone into bitcoin," Van Eck said. The S&P 500 posted two consecutive years of 25 percent-plus returns in 2023 and 2024. While the S&P is fighting to hold onto gains this year amid the sharp swings in the stock market, this is the second consecutive year gold is up 25 percent-plus. "Last year was a real unusual year where gold went up over 25%. We're already at that mark year-to-date," Ciampaglia said. One reason for continued momentum in the metal he cited is the fact that most of the buying in gold has been among foreign central banks diversifying away from U.S. government-linked assets that have long been safe havens. Now, Ciampaglia says, "people are starting to reallocate to gold, but it is still a very small number of the population." Year-to-date, the two biggest gold ETFs, SPDR Gold Shares and iShares Gold Trust, have taken in over $11 billion, according to data from among the top 25 ETFs for flows, with the SPDR Gold Shares' near $7 billion in assets No. 13 overall in the ETF industry. But he says investors should be looking as much, if not more, at silver and platinum, where thinks some of the next bigger moves may be centered among the precious metals boom. Even though platinum has posted stellar numbers this year, he called it and silver a "catch-up" trade that still has room to run, a view that was reflected in silver's trading chart on Tuesday, when it hit a level it has not seen since 2012. "For both those metals, they are just getting out of the starting block," Ciampaglia said on the ETF Edge podcast segment. "Think about the price of silver ... it was at $50 an ounce at its all-time high in 2011, so it is a long way off the all-time high." Silver was trading above $37 on Tuesday. The recent divergence between the price of gold and price of silver is another reason for investors to consider the relative opportunity, according to Ciampaglia. One common metric investors use to compare the trading opportunity is the price of an ounce of gold compared to the price of an ounce of silver, which has recently been as high as 100 to 1. It's come down in recent trading but not near its long-term average of 60 to 1, he said. That divergence will always exist, Ciampaglia said, because silver is not held by central banks to the extent of gold, and its "hybrid" use, which includes industrial applications, recently has been weighed down by the trade war and tariffs. But silver is an important metal due to its high conductivity across many different applications in electronics, renewable energy such as solar panels, and in health care equipment, he said. Even as the U.S. solar market goes over a cliff due to changes being contemplated in tax credits in the GOP tax bill, Ciampaglia said supply and demand in the global silver market has been in a deficit over the last few years and investors are "starting to wake up" to this imbalance. The single biggest driver of silver demand in the last few years has been the deployment of solar capacity, but even if the U.S. market pulls back, Ciampaglia said it has been China leading the way and leading to demand for silver given its conductivity benefits as a paste inside photovoltaic panels and ability to excite electrons. "We think somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% of global supply has been repurposed to fit that and China is really focused on all forms of energy," he said. He added that in a bull market for precious metals, gold will always be the first mover when financial fears become foremost for investors, but silver can "slingshot right by it," he said, and that is scenario he thinks could play out over the rest of the year. "Silver is the one starting to show much better strength technically, and we're starting to see shortages in market, and that can have a knock-on effect and investors finally allocate capital to the sector," he said. "We're seeing inflows to most silver ETFs and until recently that has been absent," he added. In fact, over the past three months, the iShares Silver Trust has taken in more than $1 billion from investors, according to ETF Action data. Platinum, Ciampaglia said, has been in a similar price dynamic to silver even with its big gains this year, "very depressed for a long time, but in the last few months it has broken out," he said. A persistent supply deficit, similar to silver, is part of the reason for platinum to get a new look from investors, especially when the price of gold runs up so much over a multi-year period, Ciampgalia said. When the price of gold becomes very lofty, and when the market sees signs of the gold buying frenzy in markets such as China where consumers are big buyers of gold jewelry, some substitution activity begins and people start buying platinum jewelry. The structural market deficit combined with the increase in demand has been responsible for the big move up in a short period of time for platinum, Ciampaglia said. Another trend in the global economy that supports platinum, he said, is the slowdown in EV adoption. Platinum is important for catalytic converters (so is palladium) and as the auto market dials down its pace of EV production, and the combustion engine and diesel are poised to be in the market for longer than many had forecast, there will be more demand for platinum and palladium as part of the equipment used to improve the quality of exhaust, Ciampaglia said. Disclaimer
Business Times
12-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
SGX securities turnover rises 1% in May, volume down 18%
[SINGAPORE] The total securities market turnover value on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) edged up 1 per cent year on year to S$26.9 billion, supported by institutional hedging activity and continued demand for safe-haven and dividend-yielding stocks. The securities daily average value rose 6 per cent on year to about S$1.3 billion. May's total market turnover volume dropped 18 per cent to 22.3 billion shares, from 27.3 billion shares in the same month the year before, said the bourse operator in its monthly market statistics report on Monday (Jun 9). One bright spot was derivatives, where the traded volume increased 6 per cent to 25.4 million contracts in May. Derivatives daily average volume climbed 11 per cent to 1.3 million contracts. The Straits Times Index (STI) in May came close to the all-time high posted in March after it advanced 1.6 per cent month on month to 3,894.61. On Mar 28, it rose above 4,000 for the first time. May's performance was due to 'Singapore's appeal to investors as a flight-to-quality venue', said SGX. Its report also stated that market turnover value of exchange-traded funds (ETF) increased 22 per cent year on year in May to S$376 million, as market participants continued to favour safe-haven and higher dividend-yielding stocks. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The SPDR Gold Shares ETF recorded its 12th consecutive month of gains, bringing net inflows over the one-year period to S$500 million. Meanwhile, net inflows into the two STI ETFs crossed S$60 million in May – the highest since September 2020. The report highlighted the SGX FTSE China A50 Index Futures as a standout performer, with trading volume rising 4 per cent year on year to 7.8 million contracts. SGX said the SGX Equity Derivatives bellwether remains the world's most liquid international futures contract for Chinese equities. The bourse operator listed the won as one of the forex futures outperformers. The daily average value of the SGX KRW/USD FX Futures increased 143 per cent year on year to a monthly record of 38,294 lots, or a notional US$685 million, in May. It said this was in part due to the unprecedented volatility in the Taiwan dollar, which spilled over to emerging Asia currencies – notably the Korean won. The SGX KRW/USD Mini Futures similarly attracted a significant influx of new participants, as did SGX USD/CNH Options, which posted a single-day open interest record of 8,189 lots, or a notional US$818 million. In commodities, traded volume in petrochemicals derivatives more than doubled year on year in May to the equivalent of 4.4 million metric tonnes (MT), with average monthly open interest surpassing three million MT amid a rebound in physical cargo prices. On May 13, SGX Commodities cleared a record single-day volume of 500,000 MT in petrochemicals contracts. SGX said in its monthly report that the Singapore stock market continued to stand out for its 'quality and value to investors', with strong institutional hedging activity as investors recalibrated portfolios in response to ongoing market uncertainty. As at 3.59 pm on Thursday, shares of SGX were up 0.6 per cent or S$0.08 at S$13.86.
Yahoo
06-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Rules for Now, but the Crypto Landscape Is Vast
Investors want more than just a bit of bitcoin. Spot Bitcoin ETFs amassed inflows of nearly $9.6 billion from April 21 through May 27, according to data compiled by Morningstar Direct. With the price of the world's most popular cryptocurrency reaching all-time highs of more than $100,000 lately and the Trump administration championing digital assets, advisors might now want to expand their focus beyond just bitcoin. 'The capitalization of the crypto space right now is more than $3 trillion. How can you ignore that?' said Campbell Harver, Duke University professor and partner at Research Affiliates. 'It'd be like ignoring a couple of companies in the Magnificent Seven.' READ ALSO: There's Almost 600K More Millionaires. That's Not Necessarily a Good Thing and Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Layoffs to Hit Northeast While spot Bitcoin ETFs have been seeing plenty of momentum lately, iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is the real winner. Over roughly the past five weeks, IBIT has taken in $8.7 billion, per Morningstar. That's about 80% of its total inflows year-to-date. Bitcoin and ETFs that track it may be a new corner of portfolios, but advisors are quickly growing more comfortable with it. 'Most of my clients have a 5-10% allocation to Bitcoin,' said Mike Casey, founder of AE Advisors. 'Some are allocated significantly higher.' Bitcoin and IBIT are clearly the biggest players in the space, but advisors should have a wider view when considering crypto allocations, Harvey said, recommending wealth managers consider stablecoins — digital currencies pegged to traditional assets like the US dollar or gold. 'In my vision of the future, almost all assets will be tokenized — stocks, debts, mortgages, all this stuff,' he told Advisor Upside. 'We're going in that direction, and stablecoins are the first step.' But of course, stay away from meme coins. 'They have no fundamental value whatsoever,' Harvey said. 'They're like trading cards.' Golden Hour. Amidst the current economic uncertainty, some have begun viewing Bitcoin as a safe haven similar to gold, but that's still debated territory, given that their volatility profiles are drastically different, said Joy Yang, head of product management at MarketVector Indexes. 'Gold is more of a slow and steady type of asset and has been quietly outperforming US equities over the past 20 years,' she told Advisor Upside. 'Bitcoin has done it, too, but in a much more rollercoaster type of movement.' In the same five-week span, Gold ETFs have experienced almost $2.8 billion in outflows, with State Street's SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) accounting for nearly all of that, according to Morningstar. The precious metal's price per ounce is down from an all-time high of $3,500 in late April. However, gold is still outperforming Bitcoin, up 28% YTD compared with Bitcoin's 12% as of Monday. 'Bitcoin is still a teenager,' Yang said. 'It'll eventually be an adult, but it's going to take a winding path to get there.' This post first appeared on The Daily Upside. To receive financial advisor news, market insights, and practice management essentials, subscribe to our free Advisor Upside newsletter.
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
QQQ Attracts $572M in Assets as Markets Start June Higher
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) pulled in $571.5 million, increasing its total assets to just over $334 billion, according to data provided by FactSet. The inflows came as markets climbed on the first trading day of June, with the S&P 500 rising 0.4% despite escalating tensions between the U.S. and both China and the European Union. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) attracted $302.1 million as investors sought safe havens amid trade uncertainty. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) gained $240.3 million, while the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) pulled in just under $238 million. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) experienced the largest outflows of $2.7 billion despite the broader market advance. The Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) both saw outflows of $1.1 billion. U.S. equity ETFs saw outflows of $5.3 billion, while U.S. fixed income lost $2.1 billion. International fixed income collected $781 million, and commodities ETFs gained $456.9 million. Overall, ETFs experienced outflows of $6.9 billion as investors awaited potential talks between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping this week. Ticker Name Net Flows ($, mm) AUM ($, mm) AUM % Change QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust Series I 571.51 334,125.18 0.17% GLD SPDR Gold Shares 302.06 98,290.97 0.31% SPLG SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF 246.38 67,769.20 0.36% XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund 240.33 16,634.01 1.44% VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF 237.98 25,306.95 0.94% PWB Invesco Large Cap Growth ETF 230.69 1,355.44 17.02% HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF 190.38 16,134.40 1.18% XLC Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund 187.69 22,102.00 0.85% AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF 186.17 124,511.70 0.15% XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund 157.19 21,417.83 0.73% Ticker Name Net Flows ($, mm) AUM ($, mm) AUM % Change SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust -2,684.70 600,832.27 -0.45% VGT Vanguard Information Technology ETF -1,107.36 85,574.38 -1.29% TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF -1,060.90 49,836.24 -2.13% BIL SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF -789.00 43,215.70 -1.83% IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF -533.91 61,574.41 -0.87% VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF -487.47 656,853.52 -0.07% IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF -430.81 69,213.48 -0.62% SGOV iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF -397.82 46,812.41 -0.85% SHLD Global X Defense Tech ETF -296.86 2,275.34 -13.05% NULG Nuveen ESG Large-Cap Growth ETF -278.85 1,562.44 -17.85% Net Flows ($, mm) AUM ($, mm) % of AUM Alternatives -17.71 9,986.25 -0.18% Asset Allocation -53.62 24,735.96 -0.22% Commodities ETFs 456.90 209,569.41 0.22% Currency -533.21 141,983.35 -0.38% International Equity 72.02 1,787,557.61 0.00% International Fixed Income 781.00 291,703.25 0.27% Inverse -102.08 14,674.58 -0.70% Leveraged -138.74 118,632.54 -0.12% US Equity -5,246.31 6,778,231.59 -0.08% US Fixed Income -2,071.86 1,664,551.06 -0.12% Total: -6,853.60 11,041,625.60 -0.06% Disclaimer: All data as of 6 a.m. Eastern time the date the article is published. Data are believed to be accurate; however, transient market data are often subject to subsequent revision and correction by the | © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Veteran strategist unveils updated gold price forecast
Veteran strategist unveils updated gold price forecast originally appeared on TheStreet. Nervous investors have flocked to gold as a safe haven against inflation, geopolitics, and, most recently, tariff turmoil, and they have been well-paid for their move this year. Now, those same investors are anxious about whether the precious metal's run can continue. Gold is up nearly 30% this year, after gaining more than 25% in 2024; it's up 44% over the last 12 months. The three-year annualized average return on gold, as measured by SPDR Gold Shares () , is 21.4%, well above its historic averages; from 1971 to 2024, the annualized return on the shiny stuff was just under 8%. Great runs like this don't last forever, so fearing a regression to the mean is normal. Calm the nerves; one of the world's leading gold strategists says record price levels will be broken regularly through the end of the Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist for State Street Global Advisors, said in a recent interview on 'Money Life with Chuck Jaffe' that gold will continue to make sense for investors for its attributes and potential. 'We still have a lot of geopolitical turbulence, and gold historically has tended to perform well during periods of geopolitical turmoil,' said Milling-Stanley. Milling-Stanley has spent some five decades overseeing gold's fit into investment portfolios and helped develop GLD, the world's first gold-backed ETF. Clearly, he knows a thing or two about the yellow metal. 'We still don't know where we stand with interest rates. … We don't know what the outcome of that is going to be. We still have an enormous amount of uncertainty on the macroeconomic front, as well as geopolitical shock. 'When faced with uncertainty,' Milling-Stanley added, 'I've always turned to gold in the past and I think it's served me well.' Gold's run-up over the last few years has coincided with higher inflation, but that hasn't fueled the run, according to Milling-Stanley. He says it only serves the role of an inflation hedge when the economy is 'suffering sustained high inflation,' which he defines as two or more years when prices rise persistently by 5% or more. That hasn't happened since the 1970s, so even if price hikes continue at their current pace—higher than the Fed's 2% target—gold isn't likely to respond to the uncertainty that Milling-Stanley says gives gold more upside potential than downside risk. 'The higher the uncertainty, the higher the upper limit,' he explained, noting that emerging tariff policies and the pall they've cast on global markets have forced the team at State Street to revise forecasts made last December, intended to last the whole of 2025, several times already. 'I guess the most important thing to say is it looks very much as if we've established a new floor in the gold price, somewhere above $3,000 an ounce,' Milling-Stanley explained. 'The floor last year was at $2,000 an ounce. That is a huge leap. With a new floor in place—gold didn't sustain a breach of the $2,000 level until February 2024 but has been higher ever since—and with the huge gains in the last 12 months, Milling-Stanley said he would not be surprised or even disappointed if gold consolidated a bit, trading in the $3,000 to $3,500 range for a while, simply holding value if market turmoil causes other asset values to drop. But, he noted, 'our bullish case suggests that we could actually take out whatever resistance is available at the $3,500 area, and possibly even trade as high as $3,900.' By that best-case forecast, gold would gain more than 15% from current levels, on top of its huge gains of the last two years. While price performance has been glitzy, Milling-Stanley noted that a gold allocation makes sense in most portfolios for its non-glamorous, protective attributes:Diversification, thanks to 'a zero relationship' to the movement of both stocks and bonds. Protection from stock market calamity. Milling-Stanley isn't predicting disaster, but said that macroeconomic uncertainties make it impossible to eliminate the potential for something catastrophic. 'If you look at, Black Monday in 1987, if you look at the bursting of the bubble in 2001-2002, you look at the global financial crisis of 2008, you look at the advent of Covid in 2020, equities took a significant downturn and gold performed very, very well,' Milling-Stanley said. Milling-Stanley notes that gold's momentum hasn't carried over to gold miners; he favors owning the physical metal, particularly because of concerns about market swings. Miners historically have sharply underperformed metals in big downdrafts. Gold typically holds up against weakness in the dollar. The value of the dollar is off roughly 9% this year, and it lost about 4.5% in the wake of the Liberation Day tariff announcements. Inflation protection in the unlikely event that tariff policies hit home harder and longer than anticipated with the Fed losing control on price hikes. 'I think people are still looking to gold for its protective attributes, rather than necessarily hoping that the price will go up so they can sell at a profit tomorrow or next week,' Milling-Stanley said. Still, he acknowledged that those timeless attributes shine brighter when attached to gold's enhanced profit potential strategist unveils updated gold price forecast first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 3, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 3, 2025, where it first appeared.
