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Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Here's the Average Stock Market Return in the Last 15 Years and What Wall Street Expects in 2025
The S&P 500 is the best benchmark for the U.S. stock market, and the index has returned 11.8% annually (excluding dividends) over the last 15 years. Economists have lowered GDP estimates for 2025 due to tariffs imposed by President Trump, and Wall Street has lowered earnings forecasts. The median year-end target from 17 investment banks and research firms says the S&P 500 will finish 2025 at 6,100, which implies 2% upside from its current level. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › In total, more than 5,400 companies are listed on United States stock exchanges, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA). Many of those companies are grouped into various indexes, such as the Nasdaq Composite or the Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is widely considered the best benchmark for the overall U.S. stock market due to its scope and diversity. Read on to see the index's average annual return over the last 15 years and to learn what Wall Street expects in the remaining months of 2025. In 1926, the Standard Statistics Company developed a stock market index that tracked 90 domestic equities. The number of included stocks gradually increased over the years until reaching 500 in March 1957, at which point the index became known as the S&P 500. Today, companies must meet certain eligibility requirements to be included in the index, including GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) profitability in the most recent four quarters, a minimum market value of $20.5 billion, and a sufficiently liquid stock. The index is rebalanced quarterly, but stocks can be added at any time. Most recently, Coinbase Global joined the S&P 500 on May 19. The 10 largest holdings are listed by weight below: Microsoft: 7% Nvidia: 7% Apple: 5.8% Amazon: 4% Alphabet: 3.6% Meta Platforms: 3% Broadcom: 2.3% Tesla: 1.7% Berkshire: 1.7% JPMorgan Chase: 1.5% Excluding dividends, the S&P 500 returned 434% over the last 15 years, compounding at 11.8% annually. Inclusive of dividends, the S&P 500 returned 609% over the last 15 years, compounding at 13.9% annually. That period covers a broad range of economic and market environments, so similar returns are plausible in the next 15 years. The S&P 500 soared when President Donald Trump won the presidential election in November, and the index stayed on an upward trajectory until the administration rattled investors with its aggressive trade policies. After President Trump explained his "Liberation Day" tariffs in early April, the S&P 500 declined 10.5% in two trading days, the fifth-largest two-day loss in history. Surprisingly, the benchmark index has nearly recouped its losses. Corporate earnings were much better than expected in the first quarter, and the economy has been resilient so far, despite the fastest tariff hike in history. Wall Street analysts initially reacted to the turmoil by lowering their S&P 500 forecasts for 2025, but many have upwardly revised their estimates in recent months, though most still see less upside than they did pre-tariffs. Shown below are the year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 set by 17 Wall Street investment banks and research organizations, as well as the implied upside (or downside) compared to its current level. Wall Street Firm S&P 500 Year-End Target 2025 Implied Upside (Downside) Wells Fargo 7,007 17% Fundstrat 6,600 11% Deutsche Bank 6,550 10% Morgan Stanley 6,500 9% Yardeni Research 6,500 9% UBS 6,400 7% Citigroup 6,300 6% BMO Capital 6,100 2% Goldman Sachs 6,100 2% Barclays 6,050 1% JPMorgan 6,000 1% Oppenheimer 5,950 (0%) RBC Capital 5,730 (4%) Bank of America 5,600 (6%) Evercore 5,600 (6%) HSBC 5,600 (6%) Stifel 5,500 (8%) Median 6,100 2% Data source: Yahoo Finance. Year-end targets and implied upside (downside) shown are current as of June 9. As shown above, the median year-end target for the S&P 500 is 6,100 among 17 Wall Street investment banks and research organizations. That forecast implies about 2% upside from the current level of 5,968. Importantly, the median year-end forecast from the same 17 institutions was 6,600 back in December 2024. At the time, the consensus among economists said U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) would grow 2.1% in 2025, but that figure has been revised down to 1.4% due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Accordingly, Wall Street analysts have downwardly revised S&P 500 earnings estimates, as detailed below: Q2 2025: The consensus estimate currently calls for 5.7% earnings growth, a downward revision from 12% in January. Q3 2025: The consensus estimate currently calls for 7.8% earnings growth, a downward revision from 13.1% in January. Q4 2025: The consensus estimate currently calls for 6.1% earnings growth, a downward revision from 17.3% in January. Here's the big picture: The stock market is undoubtedly in a precarious position today. The White House has imposed sweeping tariffs that many economists expect to raise prices and slow economic growth. That is a clear source of downside risk for the S&P 500 in the near term, given the index is near its record high. However, investors must remember that the index has recovered from every past drawdown, and it returned 11.8% annually (excluding dividends) over the last 15 years despite one recession and two bear markets. So, while the future is uncertain in the near term, history says investors who patiently buy and hold quality stocks will be well rewarded in the long term. Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $664,089!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $881,731!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 994% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025 HSBC Holdings is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Wells Fargo is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Trevor Jennewine has positions in Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Bank of America, Berkshire Hathaway, Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Barclays Plc, Broadcom, Coinbase Global, and HSBC Holdings and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Here's the Average Stock Market Return in the Last 15 Years and What Wall Street Expects in 2025 was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Indianapolis Star
22-05-2025
- Business
- Indianapolis Star
What is open or closed on Memorial Day? When is the holiday? Banks, mail, stock market and more
Americans will soon celebrate Memorial Day, but what will be open or closed during the holiday? Here's what we know about banks, the stock market, USPS mail delivery and more on Memorial Day: Memorial Day is on Monday, May 26, 2025. Most banks will be closed on Memorial Day, May 26, 2025, according to The Federal Reserve. The stock markets on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Nasdaq and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) are all closed for trading on Memorial Day, May 26, 2025. SIFMA will also close early at 2 p.m. ET on Friday, May 23, 2025. The United States Postal Service will be closed and mail will not be delivered on Memorial Day, May 26, 2025. FedEx Custom Critical will be open on Memorial Day, May 26, 2025, but all other delivery options are expected to be closed. There will be no UPS delivery and pickup services on Memorial Day, May 26, 2025, but the UPS Store may be open at select locations. UPS Express Critical is available. Yes. State employees do not work on Memorial Day in Indiana. In 2026, Memorial Day will fall on Monday, May 25.
Business Wire
05-05-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
SIFMA and Arteria AI Announce US Treasury Clearing Solutions Partnership
WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SIFMA and Arteria AI today announced a partnership to provide all US Treasury clearing participants a data-driven documentation platform to streamline and scale the onboarding, legal compliance, and operational systems integration with respect to the mandated central clearing of US Treasury securities repurchase transactions, as required by new rules out of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 'Since the finalization of the rule in December 2023, SIFMA has been working with our members, both buy side and sell side, and key infrastructure providers to develop voluntary standardized documentation, a considerations report, accounting clarity, and legal enforceability opinions to facilitate the transition to mandated central clearing. Our partnership with Arteria AI, and this new platform, represents an important efficiency and provides a crucial resource as the industry works toward compliance,' said Kenneth E. Bentsen, Jr., SIFMA president and CEO. 'We are delighted to partner with SIFMA to provide the industry with an effective AI-powered solution for US Treasury clearing. This partnership combines SIFMA's unparalleled institutional knowledge as the foremost trade association for financial services in the US with the Arteria platform, the leading AI technology specifically designed for financial services. At this time of rapid technological change, it is more important than ever for financial institutions to have a comprehensive understanding of their documentation. We look forward to enabling the whole market to do this via our joint offering with SIFMA,' said Abrar Huq, Arteria AI Co-founder & CRO. The SIFMA Arteria AI Treasury Clearing Solution starts with translating the voluntary standard documentation into a data driven exercise to: Assist market participants in leveraging the documentation's built-in optionality to address and accommodate individualized negotiations and terms. Streamline and scale negotiations and enable the tracking of terms across stakeholders. Operationalize the content to drive client onboarding, record critical client details, and provide a platinum data source for margin management and other systems. Optimize legal, accounting, and compliance both with respect to key business terms and enforceability consistent with legal opinions and other guidance being sourced by SIFMA. The compliance dates for the relevant SEC rules are Dec. 31, 2026, for eligible cash market transactions, and June 30, 2027, for eligible repo market transactions. SIFMA is the leading trade association for broker-dealers, investment banks and asset managers operating in the U.S. and global capital markets. On behalf of our industry's one million employees, we advocate on legislation, regulation and business policy affecting retail and institutional investors, equity and fixed income markets and related products and services. We serve as an industry coordinating body to promote fair and orderly markets, informed regulatory compliance, and efficient market operations and resiliency. We also provide a forum for industry policy and professional development. SIFMA, with offices in New York and Washington, D.C., is the U.S. regional member of the Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA). ARTERIA AI Powered by data, Arteria AI is trusted by the world's largest banks to transform critical document processes at enterprise scale – working smarter and faster to maximize revenue and save time and cost. Arteria AI's documentation solution removes the need for legacy manual processes by structuring data at the onset of the documentation lifecycle. The platform then surfaces data and insights through intelligent workflow tools to speed up decision-making processes for all stakeholders with a highly intuitive front-end. Built by subject matter experts, data scientists and technologists, Arteria AI's solution unleashes the power of data to help global, regulated financial institutions solve client document complexity at scale. Adopting an innovative data-first approach, this AI-powered enterprise-ready solution takes the friction out of the paper trail.
Reuters
27-01-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Wall Street asks SEC to extend timeline for US Treasury market overhaul
NEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Wall Street is asking regulators for more time to implement a rule requiring centralized Treasury clearing as banks and funds trading U.S. government bonds face a 2026 deadline. The Securities and Exchange Commission adopted in December 2023 new rules aimed at reducing systemic risk in the $28 trillion Treasury market, the world's biggest bond market, by forcing more trades through clearing houses. The rules, which will give the agency greater visibility into the market, will be implemented in phases by June 2026. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) together with other trade associations sent a letter to the SEC on Friday requesting that the implementation timeline be extended by at least one year for the cash and repo clearing deadlines. "We believe final implementation of the Clearing Rule will provide improvements for this market," SIFMA and the other signatories of the letter said. "However, the importance of the Treasury market to the financial system and the economy, along with the expected significant issuance of Treasury securities in the coming years, argues for an implementation timeline for the Clearing Rule that allows for a smooth transition so as not to disrupt this market," the letter said. Other signatories include MFA, which represents hedge funds and other private funds, the Alternative Investment Management Association, FIA Principal Traders Group and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. "Association members are concerned that, without an extension, the success of the transition to central clearing will be seriously compromised and will inevitably lead to disruptions in the cash and repo markets in Treasury securities to the detriment of the financial system," said the letter. Reuters reported last year that a request for a timeline extension was being considered, as crucial details on how mandatory central clearing would work had not been yet defined and market participants feared the remaining two years might not be sufficient to transition. The rule originally said clearing houses would have until March 2025 to comply with provisions on risk management, protection of customer assets and access to clearance and settlement services. Their members would have until December 2025 to begin central clearing of cash market Treasury transactions and June 30, 2026, for repo transactions. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here.
