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Middle East Eye
2 hours ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
Israel's attack on Iran could spark a region-wide explosion
Israel's decision to strike Iran marks a profound escalation in regional tensions, launching a new and volatile phase of the geopolitics of the Middle East. The Israeli military operation, codenamed Rising Lion, signals a shift to a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. The Iranian retaliation, involving a barrage of drones and ballistic missiles, was not just expected, but politically necessary for Tehran to preserve its deterrence and national pride. The situation now threatens to entrench both countries in an unpredictable cycle of violent escalation. Although Israel has justified its strikes as a preventive measure aimed at dismantling Iran's nuclear capabilities, many analysts question its ability to achieve this without US support. A deeply buried facility like Fordow cannot be hit without advanced American bunker-busting munitions. Rather than halting Iran's nuclear ambitions, these strikes may provoke its full withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, pushing Tehran to pursue nuclear weapons openly in a scenario reminiscent of North Korea's defiance. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Iran has already enriched uranium to 60 percent purity and announced new enrichment facilities, heightening fears of an irreversible nuclear trajectory. The Israeli attacks have also placed fragile US-Iran nuclear negotiations in jeopardy. Talks were due to resume just days after the strikes. While Washington officially denies involvement, widespread belief in American complicity could push Tehran to treat the US as a co-belligerent, complicating diplomatic efforts and risking the involvement of American forces if Iran targets US assets in the region. New alliances Gulf states, many of which seek economic diversification and regional stability, have expressed alarm over Israel's actions. These governments fear being dragged into a wider war and are advocating for de-escalation and diplomacy. But the perception of Israel as the dominant regional power is growing. This shift could lead to new, albeit fragile, alliances centred around Israel's deterrence power - complicating Arab foreign policy strategies, as public opinion remains vehemently opposed to Israeli aggression. By allowing Israel to bomb Iran, Trump is pushing Tehran to go nuclear Read More » Israel's military strategy apparently aims to decapitate Iran's military and nuclear leadership. While Tehran has proven resilient, ongoing economic sanctions and domestic unrest could fuel greater internal instability. On the other hand, Israel faces its own crises: more than 600 days of war in Gaza, soaring military expenditures, deep political divisions, and a government accused of prolonging conflicts for personal political gain. The result is growing disillusionment among Israelis, including over stalled hostage negotiations and the state's deteriorating international standing. Rather than short-lived skirmishes, Israel's broader strategic ambition is to reshape the Middle East, dismantle the 'axis of resistance', and entrench its hegemony. Although Hamas and Hezbollah have been weakened, they remain active. The likelihood of a broader war is high, especially if the US decided to join forces with Israel. The economic ramifications are also severe: soaring oil prices and potential disruptions to critical shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz. Israel's strikes on Iran, and its genocide in Gaza have ignited widespread public outrage across the Arab world. Support for normalisation with Israel has sharply declined, even in countries that signed the Abraham Accords, while public trust in western powers has plummeted since October 2023. While the protests that have erupted across Arab countries in recent months may not topple authoritarian regimes, they constrain political decision-making and force governments to recalibrate their foreign policies to appease public sentiments. Prolonged instability Iranians may escalate their responses to restore credibility; this could include cyberattacks, targeting western military bases, or disrupting maritime trade. Such a chain reaction could draw in major global powers, including Russia and China. The re-militarisation of the region, collapsing trust in diplomacy, and increasing polarisation now raise the spectre of prolonged instability Efforts to isolate or collapse Tehran may also backfire. If Iran were to fragment along ethnic lines (Kurdish, Arab, Baloch, Azerbaijani, etc), the result could resemble post-Gaddafi Libya or post-Saleh Yemen: ungoverned spaces prone to terrorist entrenchment. Such a scenario would invite transnational groups like al-Qaeda to expand. The region is already boiling over Israel's genocide in Gaza. Israeli military actions have weakened already vulnerable states, eroding central authority and opening power vacuums ripe for exploitation by non-state actors. The war on Iran might be framed as a targeted mission to neutralise nuclear threats, but its broader goal appears to be reshaping the Middle Eastern power structure in favour of Israeli dominance. This comes at the cost of rising public outrage, weakened Arab regimes, and emboldened extremist actors. The re-militarisation of the region, collapsing trust in diplomacy, and increasing polarisation now raise the spectre of prolonged instability. This undermines development agendas, shattering alliances and risking a larger war that could quickly spiral out of control. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
Mint
6 hours ago
- Politics
- Mint
Iran-Israel Conflict: Benjamin Netanyahu's decades-long nuke bomb alarm – 'the boy who can't stop crying wolf'
Iran-Israel Conflict: The Israel-Iran war entered its seventh day on June 20. Israeli strikes on Iran, which began on June 14, have so far killed at least 639 people and wounded 1,329 others, a human rights group was quoted as saying by the news agency AP on Thursday. Iran has also retaliated with its missile striking hospitals and near Microsoft office in Israel's Beer Sheva. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been claiming that a nuclear threat from Iran is imminent. 'If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time,' he said, suggesting the timeline could be months, even weeks. Israel called the operation "Rising Lion," stating it aimed at Iranian commanders and missile factories. "We are at a decisive moment in Israel's history," Netanyahu said, adding that Iranian scientists working on a nuclear bomb, ballistic missile programme and Natanz uranium enrichment facility were targeted in the operation. This is not the first time that Ntanyayu has warned of a nuclear bomb threat from Iran. In fact, he has been talking about this threat for more than three decades. So much so that Iran's former foreign minister Javad Zarif had in 2018 likened Netanyahu to 'the boy who can't stop crying wolf' for his constant public warnings about Tehran's nuclear programme, according to a Reuters report. It was in 1992, when Netanyahu, while addressing Israel's Knesset as an MP, claimed for the first time that Tehran is only years away from acquiring a nuclear bomb. 'Within three to five years, we can assume that Iran will become autonomous in its ability to develop and produce a nuclear bomb,' Netanyayu had said. Here is a timeline of Netanyahu's three-decade long warnings about Iran's nuclear programme. 1992: Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Israel's legislature, the Knesset, as an MP, where he first claimed that Tehran was only years away from acquiring a nuclear bomb. 1995: Netanyahu comes up with a book 'Fighting Terrorism' in which he mentions the nuclear bomb threat from Iran. 1996: Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the joint session of US Congress on July 10. In his address, Netanyahu called on Europe and Asia to join efforts to isolate Iran and Iraq and prevent them from developing nuclear capabilities that he warned would bring catastrophe. 1999: Netanyahu and his Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon discussed the issue of the transfer of Russian nuclear technology to Iran on March 22, 1999, during a trip to Moscow, Russia. 2009: A US State Department cable released by WikiLeaks revealed him telling members of Congress that Iran was just one or two years away from nuclear capability. 2012: Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, Netanyahu brandished a cartoon drawing of a bomb to illustrate his claims that Iran was closer than ever to the nuclear threshold. 'By next spring, at most by next summer … they will have finished the medium enrichment and move on to the final stage,' he said. 2014: Netanyahu addressed the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, in Washington, DC, on March 4, 2014 where he urged world powers not to allow Iran to retain the ability to enrich uranium. Netanyahu said in his address that Iran must be stripped of all nuclear technologies with bomb-making potential. 2015: Netanyahu spoke about Iran and the nuclear threat during a joint meeting of the US Congress in the House chamber at the US Capitol on March 3, 2015 in Washington, DC. 2018: Netanyahu presented material on Iran's purported nuclear programme in Tel Aviv on April 30, 2018. You can only fool some of the people so many times. Iran's then foreign minister Javad Zarif, had likened Netanyahu with 'the boy who can't stop crying wolf' for his constant public warnings about Tehran's nuclear programme, and his repeated threats to shut it down, one way or another.
India Today
7 hours ago
- Business
- India Today
Bid to deceive Iran before attack? Decoding Trump's 2-week deadline
Iran-Israel Conflict: Will he, won't he? US President Donald Trump's public flirtation with formally entering the war against Iran has kept the global diplomatic community on its toes. After days of warmongering, threatening Iran that his patience was wearing thin, Trump stumped all on Thursday after his press secretary said the President would wait two weeks before making a as he is, Trump's move has sparked speculation if the two-week deadline was a carefully thought-out ploy to hoodwink Iran and get it to let its guard down or genuinely give Tehran a chance to come to the negotiating table over its nuclear program. advertisementPLOY TO DECEIVE IRAN?While, officially, Trump justified the two-week window to give diplomacy one last try, some experts underscored that it might be a bid to deceive the Iranians and make them complacent. "That could be cover for a decision to strike immediately. Maybe this is a very clever ruse to lull the Iranians into a sense of complacency," James Stavridis, a retired Navy admiral and the former supreme US commander in Europe, told expert told the NYT that it could also be a plan to buy time for the US to bolster its military options in the Middle TIME TO DEPLOY MILITARY ASSETSThe US has so far not been directly involved in Israel's 'Rising Lion', a military operation that it started last week to snuff out Iran's nuclear US fighter jets and refuelling tankers have been deployed to the region. The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier is stationed in the Arabian Sea with four two-week window will give the US enough time to get its second aircraft carrier in the region - in case it goes on to attack Iran. Moreover, it also gives Israel more time to take out the air defences around the Fordow enrichment plant, Iran's secretive and most fortified nuclear site. This will go a long way in mitigating risks to American which has the capability to quickly enrich uranium to levels close to weapons-grade, is located 80 to 90 meters below the surface. Due to its location, Israel doesn't have the ammunition required to destroy the plant. Only the US does, with its 30,000-pound "bunker buster" munition. The destroyed building of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) after it was hit a few days earlier in an Israeli strike (AFP) GETTING IRAN TO NEGOTIATING TABLEThe second probable reason for opening a two-week negotiating window is to give a substantial chance to negotiations with Iran and persuade it to immediately halt enrichment of uranium."Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks," a White House statement attributed to Trump toning down of the rhetoric comes after Trump asked Iranians to "immediately evacuate Tehran", called Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei an "easy target" and demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender".A section of analysts said it was the US president's way of giving diplomacy one more chance. Trump's eyes, for now, will be on the meeting in Geneva between foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the European Union and Iran's Abbas Washington Post quoted a diplomatic official as saying that the European countries would seek to mediate a "take it or leave it deal" with Iran, in exchange for "regime survival". Trump has repeatedly insisted that any deal with Iran would have to result in "no enrichment of uranium".On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said while the fall of Iran's regime was not Tel Aviv's objective, it could ultimately be a consequence of the ongoing negotiators have previously suggested a deal could include having an international team visiting Iran and dismantling its enrichment facilities, The Washington Post 600 DEAD IN IRANThe conflict, which is now in its eighth day, has left at least 639 people dead and 1,329 others wounded in Iran, which has borne the maximum trigger for Israel's unprecedented attack was the International Atomic Energy Agency's declaration that Iran was in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and was dangerously close to acquiring nuclear however, has insisted that its nuclear activities were only for civilian the Trump administration and Israel have not bought the argument. On Thursday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in "a couple of weeks" if given the go-ahead by its Supreme Leader InMust Watch
India.com
8 hours ago
- Politics
- India.com
Iran's missiles reaching over 2,300 km to hit Israel in just minutes because..., technology behind it is....
Iran's missiles reaching over 2,300 km to hit Israel in just minutes because… technology behind it is… Tehran: The Israel-Iran war has entered its seventh day with no sign of ending soon. Both countries are continuously firing missiles at each other, resulting in significant loss of life. Tel Aviv started the conflict with pre-emptive airstrikes targeting several sites in Iran, which included crucial nuclear facilities, scientists, and top military leaders under Operation – 'Rising Lion'. As per Israel, the military action was taken to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear warheads, which could be an existential threat for the country. Iran, in retaliatory fire, fired several ballistic missiles and launched suicide drones on multiple cities in Israel, targeting military sites. But do you know that the missiles that Tehran fired at Israel are reaching in minutes, even though the distance between the countries is over 2,300 km.
Mint
8 hours ago
- Politics
- Mint
Iran-Israel Conflict: Benjamin Netanyahu's 3-decade-long nuke bomb alarm – 'the boy who can't stop crying wolf'
Iran-Israel War: The Israel-Iran war entered its seventh day on June 20. Israeli strikes on Iran, which began on June 14, have so far killed at least 639 people and wounded 1,329 others, a human rights group was quoted as saying by the news agency AP on Thursday. Iran has also retaliated with its missile striking hospitals and near Microsoft office in Israel's Beer Sheva. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been claiming that a nuclear threat from Iran is imminent. 'If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time,' he said, suggesting the timeline could be months, even weeks. Israel called the operation "Rising Lion," stating it aimed at Iranian commanders and missile factories. "We are at a decisive moment in Israel's history," Netanyahu said, adding that Iranian scientists working on a nuclear bomb, ballistic missile programme and Natanz uranium enrichment facility were targeted in the operation. This is not the first time that Ntanyayu has warned of a nuclear bomb threat from Iran. In fact, he has been talking about this threat for more than three decades. So much so that Iran's former foreign minister Javad Zarif had in 2018 likened Netanyahu to 'the boy who can't stop crying wolf' for his constant public warnings about Tehran's nuclear programme, according to a Reuters report. It was in 1992, when Netanyahu, while addressing Israel's Knesset as an MP, claimed for the first time that Tehran is only years away from acquiring a nuclear bomb. 'Within three to five years, we can assume that Iran will become autonomous in its ability to develop and produce a nuclear bomb,' Netanyayu had said. Here is a timeline of Netanyahu's three-decade long warnings about Iran's nuclear programme. 1992: Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Israel's legislature, the Knesset, as an MP, where he first claimed that Tehran was only years away from acquiring a nuclear bomb. 1995: Netanyahu comes up with a book 'Fighting Terrorism' in which he mentions the nuclear bomb threat from Iran. 1996: Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the joint session of US Congress on July 10. In his address, Netanyahu called on Europe and Asia to join efforts to isolate Iran and Iraq and prevent them from developing nuclear capabilities that he warned would bring catastrophe. 1999: Netanyahu and his Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon discussed the issue of the transfer of Russian nuclear technology to Iran on March 22, 1999, during a trip to Moscow, Russia. 2009: A US State Department cable released by WikiLeaks revealed him telling members of Congress that Iran was just one or two years away from nuclear capability. 2012: Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, Netanyahu brandished a cartoon drawing of a bomb to illustrate his claims that Iran was closer than ever to the nuclear threshold. 'By next spring, at most by next summer … they will have finished the medium enrichment and move on to the final stage,' he said. 2014: Netanyahu addressed the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, in Washington, DC, on March 4, 2014 where he urged world powers not to allow Iran to retain the ability to enrich uranium. Netanyahu said in his address that Iran must be stripped of all nuclear technologies with bomb-making potential. 2015: Netanyahu spoke about Iran and the nuclear threat during a joint meeting of the US Congress in the House chamber at the US Capitol on March 3, 2015 in Washington, DC. 2018: Netanyahu presented material on Iran's purported nuclear programme in Tel Aviv on April 30, 2018. You can only fool some of the people so many times. Iran's then foreign minister Javad Zarif, had likened Netanyahu with 'the boy who can't stop crying wolf' for his constant public warnings about Tehran's nuclear programme, and his repeated threats to shut it down, one way or another. "You can only fool some of the people so many times," Iran's then-foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said in 2018 after Netanyahu had once again accused Iran of planning to build nuclear weapons.
