07-05-2025
A back-and-forth Mother's Day forecast: Why is this forecast so hard?
(PINPOINT WEATHER) — Every weekend is important, but this one is a special one for all of the mom's out there. However, the forecast for Mother's Day weekend has been very back and forth. Between washout to little rain at all.
The reason the forecast is so difficult this weekend is because of a metrological blocking pattern called the 'Rex Block.' This was named after meteorologist Daniel Rex, who discovered the tricky weather pattern.
This blocking pattern sets up when an area of high pressure builds in north of an area of low pressure in the upper levels. This cuts the low pressure system off from the steering currents in the upper levels, which means it meanders around slowly.
As we know with low pressure, if you are under one of those systems, rainfall is more likely. This means that if that area of low pressure sets up over your region and meanders for a while, rain chances will also meander over your region for a while.
Weather models DO NOT like blocking patterns. Weather models are numerical, which use computer simulation equations and algorithms to help predict the current state and future state of the atmosphere. If systems are not moving, it makes it more difficult for models to use those equations and algorithms, which usually leads to numerous solutions and or different forecast.
This weekend, the European weather model is pushing that area of low pressure further south, keeping the rain chances south and the Queen City News viewing area on the drier side. However, the American weather model parks that low pressure system directly over the Queen City News viewing area, keeping us on the wetter side for Mother's Day weekend.
For now, plan for at least some rain for both Saturday and Sunday (Mother's Day). It will be a cooler weekend, with mostly cloudy skies. Cool mornings this weekend will be followed up by cooler than normal afternoons. Highs will be around 70 degrees on Saturday, with mid-70s for Mother's Day.
Regardless, one things the weather models are agreeing on is a very wet start to next week, with more widespread rain chances for Monday and Tuesday of next week.
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