Latest news with #Reitzes
Vancouver Sun
an hour ago
- Business
- Vancouver Sun
Uncertainty reigns as trade tensions, tax shifts cloud Bank of Canada's inflation outlook
The Bank of Canada will get a fresh look at national inflation figures this week — a picture that's been particularly murky as of late amid tax changes and trade wars. Statistics Canada is expected to publish its consumer price index for May on Tuesday. Financial data shows the consensus among economists is that inflation ticked up to 1.8 per cent year-over-year last month. April figures showed the annual inflation rate slowed sharply to 1.7 per cent, thanks largely to a drop in gasoline prices tied to the end of the consumer carbon price. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. Benjamin Reitzes, BMO's managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist, said he expects inflation cooled two ticks to 1.5 per cent in May. He pointed to a slowing in shelter inflation and a smaller jump in gas prices compared with the same time last year for the easing. But it won't be just the headline number the Bank of Canada is parsing as it attempts to set its benchmark interest rate in an increasingly uncertain world. 'The reality is, they don't just look at one number. They look at a number of different inflation metrics to really try and figure out what the underlying trend is,' Reitzes said. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem called the current inflation picture 'complicated' in a speech to the St. John's Board of Trade in Newfoundland and Labrador on Wednesday. The 'firmness' in underlying inflation lately might be early signs of the trade war with the United States impacting inflation, he said. The central bank has so far been dogged by uncertainty tied to the tariff dispute, holding its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent twice in a row as it waits for clarity on how the trade restrictions will impact inflation. While the tariffs and counter-tariffs themselves are likely to drive up prices for businesses, it's not yet clear to the bank how quickly companies will pass those costs on to customers. Resulting slowdowns in the economy could also see businesses and consumers rein in spending, keeping inflationary pressures relatively tame. Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said inflation likely inched higher because of tariffs. 'The acceleration in the monthly pace will be largely tied to food prices that are picking up counter-tariff impacts and core goods prices that could begin to reflect broader tariffs,' she said in a note to clients on Friday. 'We expect rent inflation to decelerate after a surprising jump in April, and in line with industry data, leaning against food price increases.' Judge noted the upcoming inflation reading will reflect adjustments Statistics Canada made to its CPI basket, but said such changes don't usually have a meaningful impact on the headline number. Reitzes said it's been hard to pinpoint the impact of tariffs on the inflation data. 'The Bank of Canada is certainly watching for that, though,' he said. 'The army of economists they have working for them will be kind of teasing through all of that data and looking for any signs of that.' Food inflation has been a bit stronger in recent months, which Reitzes noted is one area where Canada is applying counter-tariffs. But he also said that could be a lagged impact from weakness in the Canadian dollar at the start of the year now filtering into food prices. Another source of noise in the inflation data is tax changes from the federal government in the early part of the year. First, Ottawa's two-month GST holiday skewed price data on a range of groceries, gifts and household staples, and now the end of the consumer carbon tax is driving down headline inflation. But that impact is only going to last for a year and will fall out of the inflation comparison after 12 months. Macklem said the central bank is increasingly putting weight on CPI measures that strip out influences from tax changes to give it some clarity. He noted Wednesday that inflation excluding taxes was 2.3 per cent in April — stronger than the central bank was expecting. Macklem also signalled Wednesday that the Bank of Canada is scrutinizing its own preferred measures of core inflation a little more closely. Those core inflation figures are now running above three per cent, but Macklem also warned there's 'potentially some distortion' that could be 'exaggerating' price pressures. Alternative measures of core inflation are coming in lower, so he said the bank is looking at a range of factors as it gauges where inflation is heading next. 'There is some unusual volatility. So how temporary or persistent this is, I think remains an open question,' Macklem said. The Bank of Canada will get a look at two inflation reports before its next interest rate decision on July 30. If inflation shows signs of remaining well contained in those releases, Reitzes said the Bank of Canada might find a window to lower interest rates to boost the economy in the face of tariffs. 'They'll probably take that opportunity, but inflation needs to provide them with that,' he said. 'And at the moment it is not doing so.' 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Edmonton Journal
an hour ago
- Business
- Edmonton Journal
Uncertainty reigns as trade tensions, tax shifts cloud Bank of Canada's inflation outlook
Article content April figures showed the annual inflation rate slowed sharply to 1.7 per cent, thanks largely to a drop in gasoline prices tied to the end of the consumer carbon price. Benjamin Reitzes, BMO's managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist, said he expects inflation cooled two ticks to 1.5 per cent in May. He pointed to a slowing in shelter inflation and a smaller jump in gas prices compared with the same time last year for the easing. But it won't be just the headline number the Bank of Canada is parsing as it attempts to set its benchmark interest rate in an increasingly uncertain world. 'The reality is, they don't just look at one number. They look at a number of different inflation metrics to really try and figure out what the underlying trend is,' Reitzes said. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem called the current inflation picture 'complicated' in a speech to the St. John's Board of Trade in Newfoundland and Labrador on Wednesday.
Hamilton Spectator
9 hours ago
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
Bank of Canada hoping for better look at ‘complicated' inflation picture
OTTAWA - The Bank of Canada will get a fresh look at national inflation figures this week — a picture that's been particularly murky as of late amid tax changes and trade wars. Statistics Canada is expected to publish its consumer price index for May on Tuesday. Financial data shows the consensus among economists is that inflation ticked up to 1.8 per cent year-over-year last month. April figures showed the annual inflation rate slowed sharply to 1.7 per cent, thanks largely to a drop in gasoline prices tied to the end of the consumer carbon price. Benjamin Reitzes, BMO's managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist, said he expects inflation cooled two ticks to 1.5 per cent in May. He pointed to a slowing in shelter inflation and a smaller jump in gas prices compared with the same time last year for the easing. But it won't be just the headline number the Bank of Canada is parsing as it attempts to set its benchmark interest rate in an increasingly uncertain world. 'The reality is, they don't just look at one number. They look at a number of different inflation metrics to really try and figure out what the underlying trend is,' Reitzes said. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem called the current inflation picture 'complicated' in a speech to the St. John's Board of Trade in Newfoundland and Labrador on Wednesday. The 'firmness' in underlying inflation lately might be early signs of the trade war with the United States impacting inflation, he said. The central bank has so far been dogged by uncertainty tied to the tariff dispute, holding its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent twice in a row as it waits for clarity on how the trade restrictions will impact inflation. While the tariffs and counter-tariffs themselves are likely to drive up prices for businesses, it's not yet clear to the bank how quickly companies will pass those costs on to customers. Resulting slowdowns in the economy could also see businesses and consumers rein in spending, keeping inflationary pressures relatively tame. Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said inflation likely inched higher because of tariffs. 'The acceleration in the monthly pace will be largely tied to food prices that are picking up counter-tariff impacts and core goods prices that could begin to reflect broader tariffs,' she said in a note to clients on Friday. 'We expect rent inflation to decelerate after a surprising jump in April, and in line with industry data, leaning against food price increases.' Judge noted the upcoming inflation reading will reflect adjustments Statistics Canada made to its CPI basket, but said such changes don't usually have a meaningful impact on the headline number. Reitzes said it's been hard to pinpoint the impact of tariffs on the inflation data. 'The Bank of Canada is certainly watching for that, though,' he said. 'The army of economists they have working for them will be kind of teasing through all of that data and looking for any signs of that.' Food inflation has been a bit stronger in recent months, which Reitzes noted is one area where Canada is applying counter-tariffs. But he also said that could be a lagged impact from weakness in the Canadian dollar at the start of the year now filtering into food prices. Another source of noise in the inflation data is tax changes from the federal government in the early part of the year. First, Ottawa's two-month GST holiday skewed price data on a range of groceries, gifts and household staples, and now the end of the consumer carbon tax is driving down headline inflation. But that impact is only going to last for a year and will fall out of the inflation comparison after 12 months. Macklem said the central bank is increasingly putting weight on CPI measures that strip out influences from tax changes to give it some clarity. He noted Wednesday that inflation excluding taxes was 2.3 per cent in April — stronger than the central bank was expecting. Macklem also signalled Wednesday that the Bank of Canada is scrutinizing its own preferred measures of core inflation a little more closely. Those core inflation figures are now running above three per cent, but Macklem also warned there's 'potentially some distortion' that could be 'exaggerating' price pressures. Alternative measures of core inflation are coming in lower, so he said the bank is looking at a range of factors as it gauges where inflation is heading next. 'There is some unusual volatility. So how temporary or persistent this is, I think remains an open question,' Macklem said. The Bank of Canada will get a look at two inflation reports before its next interest rate decision on July 30. If inflation shows signs of remaining well contained in those releases, Reitzes said the Bank of Canada might find a window to lower interest rates to boost the economy in the face of tariffs. 'They'll probably take that opportunity, but inflation needs to provide them with that,' he said. 'And at the moment it is not doing so.' This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 22, 2025.
Winnipeg Free Press
9 hours ago
- Business
- Winnipeg Free Press
Bank of Canada hoping for better look at ‘complicated' inflation picture
OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada will get a fresh look at national inflation figures this week — a picture that's been particularly murky as of late amid tax changes and trade wars. Statistics Canada is expected to publish its consumer price index for May on Tuesday. Financial data shows the consensus among economists is that inflation ticked up to 1.8 per cent year-over-year last month. April figures showed the annual inflation rate slowed sharply to 1.7 per cent, thanks largely to a drop in gasoline prices tied to the end of the consumer carbon price. Benjamin Reitzes, BMO's managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist, said he expects inflation cooled two ticks to 1.5 per cent in May. He pointed to a slowing in shelter inflation and a smaller jump in gas prices compared with the same time last year for the easing. But it won't be just the headline number the Bank of Canada is parsing as it attempts to set its benchmark interest rate in an increasingly uncertain world. 'The reality is, they don't just look at one number. They look at a number of different inflation metrics to really try and figure out what the underlying trend is,' Reitzes said. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem called the current inflation picture 'complicated' in a speech to the St. John's Board of Trade in Newfoundland and Labrador on Wednesday. The 'firmness' in underlying inflation lately might be early signs of the trade war with the United States impacting inflation, he said. The central bank has so far been dogged by uncertainty tied to the tariff dispute, holding its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent twice in a row as it waits for clarity on how the trade restrictions will impact inflation. While the tariffs and counter-tariffs themselves are likely to drive up prices for businesses, it's not yet clear to the bank how quickly companies will pass those costs on to customers. Resulting slowdowns in the economy could also see businesses and consumers rein in spending, keeping inflationary pressures relatively tame. Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said inflation likely inched higher because of tariffs. 'The acceleration in the monthly pace will be largely tied to food prices that are picking up counter-tariff impacts and core goods prices that could begin to reflect broader tariffs,' she said in a note to clients on Friday. 'We expect rent inflation to decelerate after a surprising jump in April, and in line with industry data, leaning against food price increases.' Judge noted the upcoming inflation reading will reflect adjustments Statistics Canada made to its CPI basket, but said such changes don't usually have a meaningful impact on the headline number. Reitzes said it's been hard to pinpoint the impact of tariffs on the inflation data. 'The Bank of Canada is certainly watching for that, though,' he said. 'The army of economists they have working for them will be kind of teasing through all of that data and looking for any signs of that.' Food inflation has been a bit stronger in recent months, which Reitzes noted is one area where Canada is applying counter-tariffs. But he also said that could be a lagged impact from weakness in the Canadian dollar at the start of the year now filtering into food prices. Another source of noise in the inflation data is tax changes from the federal government in the early part of the year. First, Ottawa's two-month GST holiday skewed price data on a range of groceries, gifts and household staples, and now the end of the consumer carbon tax is driving down headline inflation. But that impact is only going to last for a year and will fall out of the inflation comparison after 12 months. Macklem said the central bank is increasingly putting weight on CPI measures that strip out influences from tax changes to give it some clarity. He noted Wednesday that inflation excluding taxes was 2.3 per cent in April — stronger than the central bank was expecting. Macklem also signalled Wednesday that the Bank of Canada is scrutinizing its own preferred measures of core inflation a little more closely. Those core inflation figures are now running above three per cent, but Macklem also warned there's 'potentially some distortion' that could be 'exaggerating' price pressures. Alternative measures of core inflation are coming in lower, so he said the bank is looking at a range of factors as it gauges where inflation is heading next. Wednesdays Columnist Jen Zoratti looks at what's next in arts, life and pop culture. 'There is some unusual volatility. So how temporary or persistent this is, I think remains an open question,' Macklem said. The Bank of Canada will get a look at two inflation reports before its next interest rate decision on July 30. If inflation shows signs of remaining well contained in those releases, Reitzes said the Bank of Canada might find a window to lower interest rates to boost the economy in the face of tariffs. 'They'll probably take that opportunity, but inflation needs to provide them with that,' he said. 'And at the moment it is not doing so.' This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 22, 2025.
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Broadcom Is Back in the $1 Trillion Club. But the Party Has Just Begun and the Stock Can Hit a New All-Time High, According to 1 Wall Street Analyst.
Like most large AI stocks, Broadcom has experienced volatility this year. But its custom chip solutions for artificial intelligence seem to be gaining traction. One Wall Street analyst thinks Broadcom has a much larger serviceable market ahead. 10 stocks we like better than Broadcom › There are only about a handful of stocks that have a $1 trillion market value. The members include some of the most popular in the market -- Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, and Berkshire Hathaway, just to name a few. Toward the end of the last year, the custom chipmaker Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) went on a massive run and joined the exclusive club. However, after the intense sell-off in April due to tariffs and the global trade war, Broadcom fell all the way below a $700 billion market capitalization. After the recent rally that has ensued since mid-April, Broadcom has now rejoined the $1 trillion club (as of May 28). But one Wall Street analyst thinks the party has only just begun and that shares will soon hit a new all-time high. While there will be no unseating Nvidia, long considered the king of the more general graphics processing unit (GPU) space, Broadcom has gained traction with its custom chips designed for more specific work loads. For instance, one of Broadcom's core products is its custom application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), referred to as XPU. The XPUs are supposed to be better for inference, which in AI means teaching large language models to leverage real-time data to see patterns and make forecasts that help solve specific tasks. Broadcom works with hyperscalers like Meta Platforms and other key players in the AI sector like OpenAI to develop custom chips for their perspective businesses and AI workloads. Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes views custom chips less as a competitor to Nvidia and more as a complement. "Companies dual source compute from both Nvidia and Broadcom for flexibility around different workloads -- but all remain committed to both," Reitzes said in his recent research note. He also raised his price target on Broadcom from $198 per share to $283, implying another 19.4% upside from current levels. Part of Reitzes' upgrade includes a rerating to value Broadcom at 30 times his projected 2027 earnings instead of a 22 multiple, because the analyst sees a realistic path to 43% compound annual growth in revenue from AI processors over the next decade. Broadcom has also announced new customers for its custom AI chip solutions, potentially increasing its overall market. "With 7 XPU customers now confirmed, the serviceable addressable market could arguably be increased later in the decade to a range of $140-$210 billion -- with Broadcom garnering well over $70 billion in AI revenue later in the decade given its market share at these 7 customers," Reitzes wrote. He also sees potential tailwinds as Broadcom scales its specialized networking chip business and implements larger-than-expected share repurchases. The shares trade at around 36 times forward earnings, so a 30 multiple is not unrealistic if the company continues to add and retain customers. Broadcom continues to grow at a fast clip. In the first quarter of 2025, the company grew revenue by 25%, while earnings per share increased by over 300%. Broadcom's customers also include some of the strongest names in the AI sector. Most of these customers are cash cows with massive capital expenditure (capex) plans. While capex may ebb and flow, the race to create the best AI solutions has only just begun and these large players are going to constantly need to innovate. I also think a stock that is working around or in tandem with Nvidia -- and not as a direct competitor -- is a good place to operate because then Broadcom can more or less feed off Nvidia's growth. Sure, Nvidia will always be the main GPU player, but Broadcom's XPUs can be deployed alongside them and can help AI workloads hone in on specific tasks. For all of these reasons, I would have to agree with Reitzes and assume that a new all-time high for the stock is just a matter of time. Before you buy stock in Broadcom, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Broadcom wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $657,385!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $842,015!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 987% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 171% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Broadcom Is Back in the $1 Trillion Club. But the Party Has Just Begun and the Stock Can Hit a New All-Time High, According to 1 Wall Street Analyst. was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
