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Al Jazeera
a day ago
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
The US sponsored Iran's 1953 regime change: Is Trump planning a repeat?
As the military conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, United States President Donald Trump has threatened that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 'an easy target' for American forces. 'We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now … Our patience is wearing thin,' Trump said in a Truth Social post on Tuesday. With the Trump administration considering whether to use US aircraft and weapons to back Israel's campaign against Iran, cracks have begun to appear within his 'Make America Great Again' or MAGA movement. Commentator Tucker Carlson and Trump's one-time adviser Steve Bannon, among other supporters, have argued that the military action against Iran is fundamentally aimed at a regime change, not just at decimating Tehran's nuclear programme. Appearing in Bannon's podcast, War Room, Carlson told him, 'You're not going to convince me that the Iranian people are my enemy. It's Orwell, man. You're not telling me who I have to hate.' In the West, critics of Iran's current rulers have often framed their opposition as shaped by the religious conservatism of the Islamic Republic. But the West's track record of regime change in the country long predates the 1979 revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. So, is Israel calling for regime change in Iran? Is the US supporting that? And what is the history of Western attempts to force regimes it likes on Iran? What's behind Israel's 'Operation Rising Lion'? After Israel launched its attacks on Iran on Friday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Iranians in an English video, saying that he hoped the military operation would 'clear the path for you to achieve your freedom'. Suggesting that Israel's objective in its attacks was to 'thwart the Islamic regime's nuclear and ballistic missile threat to us', Netanyahu added that the Israeli campaign could also lead to a regime change. The Israeli military offensive dubbed 'Operation Rising Lion' is also a name steeped in symbolism. A lion, with a sun behind it, has been an important motif of Persian empires dating back centuries. The lion holding a sword was a part of the Iranian flag under the Pahlavi dynasty that ruled Iran from the late 19th century until 1979. 'The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around [the] flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime,' Netanyahu said on Friday. On June 17, Israel's Persian-language social media account even posted an image of a lion with a sword, piercing the modern Iranian flag bearing Islamic Republic symbols. The post was seen by many as an attempt to invoke nostalgia for pre-revolutionary Iran and nudge Iranians towards resistance. But Marc Owen Jones, an associate professor of media analytics at Northwestern University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that it would be naive to expect that 'Iranians might be swayed by Israeli politicians talking about the significance of a lion'. Jones noted that Israel's lion messaging is also aimed at its domestic audience. 'Israel [is] becoming the lion that would then take over the land. And Israel has portrayed itself as the lion in its historical imagery,' he said. Israel is trying to create a sense that 'this is not just a strategic war, but this ties in with Israel's identity and its longue duree account of this biblical homeland for the Jews', added Jones. However, if the Israeli government wants Iranians to rise up against the regime, Jones said, 'reverting back to Persian historical imagery is not actually going to be very effective, especially when you're Iranians'. What has Trump said about Khamenei? While Trump has not formally called for a regime change in Tehran, he has effectively threatened that the US could assassinate Iran's top leader if and when it chooses to. On Wednesday, Trump repeated his call for 'unconditional surrender', standing on the White House lawn. 'Unconditional surrender: That means I've had it. OK? I've had it. I give up. No more. Then we go blow up all the nuclear stuff that's all over the place there,' the US president said. 'For 40 years, they've been saying: Death to America! Death to Israel! Death to anybody else that they didn't like. They were bullies. They were schoolyard bullies, and now they're not bullies any more.' He concluded: 'We're not looking for ceasefire. We're looking for a total complete victory. You know what the victory is? No nuclear weapon.' Has the West carried out regime change in Iran before? For the US and its allies, 'total complete victory' in Iran has in the past involved out-and-out regime change. In 1953, over two decades before the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the CIA and British spy agency MI6 orchestrated the overthrow of Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh. Mossadegh had moved to nationalise Iran's oil industry, previously controlled by the British-owned Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (now BP). The move was wildly popular in Iran but enraged Western countries. At the same time, Cold War paranoia was at its peak in Washington, and US officials feared that Mossadegh's government might drift towards the Soviet Union. Together, the US and the United Kingdom launched a covert operation – known as 'Operation Ajax' – to remove Mossadegh. The plan involved funding protests, planting propaganda in local newspapers, and supporting military officers loyal to the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. On August 19, 1953, Mossadegh was removed from power. The shah, who had briefly fled Iran, returned and consolidated power with US backing. Within Iran and in the wider Global South, the coup is widely seen as a turning point, reinforcing perceptions that the West was more interested in controlling oil and influence than supporting democracy. What happened next? After 1953, the shah ruled Iran as a staunch US ally – and also as an increasingly repressive monarch. The shah launched a top-down agenda called the White Revolution, expanded education and infrastructure, and pushed secular reforms. However, political dissent was brutally suppressed by SAVAK, his secret police. Arbitrary arrests, censorship, and torture became common. Wealth inequality worsened, and his alliance with the West – particularly the US – alienated both the religious establishment and a growing segment of the population. By the late 1970s, public discontent had reached boiling point. Massive demonstrations erupted across the country, calling for the shah's removal. In January 1979, facing overwhelming opposition, he fled Iran. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile to lead the Islamic Revolution. The monarchy collapsed, and the Islamic Republic of Iran was born. Khomeini passed away in 1989 after a prolonged illness and eventual heart failure. Ali Khamenei succeeded him after serving as the president of Iran from 1981 to 1989. Khamenei became Iran's second—and current—supreme leader, holding the chair since June 4, 1989. In his first televised address since the Israeli attacks, Khamenei on Wednesday referred to Trump's 'unconditional surrender' call, noting it was 'unacceptable' and 'arrogant'. 'This nation will never surrender,' Khamenei said. 'America should know that any military intervention will undoubtedly result in irreparable damage.' To this, Trump later said at the White House lawn, 'I say, good luck.'
Reuters
a day ago
- Politics
- Reuters
Iran's divided opposition senses its moment but activists remain wary of protests
DUBAI, June 19 - Iran's fragmented opposition groups think their moment may be close at hand, but activists involved in previous bouts of protest say they are unwilling to unleash mass unrest, even against a system they hate, with their nation under attack. Exiled opponents of the Islamic Republic, themselves deeply divided, are urging street protests. In the borderlands, Kurdish and Baluchi separatist groups look poised to rise up, with Israeli strikes pummelling Iran's security apparatus. While the Islamic Republic looks weaker than at nearly any point since soon after the 1979 revolution, any direct challenge to its 46-year rule would likely require some form of popular uprising. Whether such an uprising is likely - or imminent - is a matter of debate. The late shah's son, U.S.-based Raze Pahlavi, said in media interviews this week he wants to lead a political transition, proclaiming it the best chance to topple the Islamic Republic in four decades and saying "this is our moment in history". Triggering regime change is certainly one war goal for Israel, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressing Iranians to say "we are also clearing the path for you to achieve your freedom". Within a ruling system long adept at quashing public displays of dissent, there are signs it is readying for protests. Mohammad Amin, a member of the Basij militia that is often deployed against protesters, said his unit in Qom had been put on alert to root out Israeli spies and protect the Islamic Republic. However, while the strikes have targeted a security hierarchy that crushed previous bouts of protest, they have also caused great fear and disruption for ordinary people - and anger at both Iranian authorities and Israel, the activists said. "How are people supposed to pour into the streets? In such horrifying circumstances, people are solely focused on saving themselves, their families, their compatriots, and even their pets," said Atena Daemi, a prominent activist who spent six years in prison before leaving Iran. Daemi's concerns were also voiced by Iran's most prominent activist, Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi, in a social media post. Responding to an Israeli demand for people to evacuate parts of Tehran, she posted: "Do not destroy my city." Two other activists Reuters spoke to in Iran, who were among the hundreds of thousands involved in mass protests two years ago after the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, said they also had no plans to demonstrate yet. "After the strikes end we will raise our voices because this regime is responsible for the war," said one, a university student in Shiraz, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals. Another, who had lost her university place and been jailed for five months after the 2022 protests and who also requested anonymity, said she believed in regime change in Iran but that it was not time to take to the streets. She and her friends were not planning to stage or join rallies, she said, and dismissed calls from abroad for protests. "Israel and those so-called opposition leaders abroad only think about their own benefits," she said. Apart from Pahlavi's monarchists, the main opposition faction outside Iran is the People's Mujahideen Organisation, also known as the MEK or MKO. A revolutionary faction in the 1970s, it lost a power struggle after the shah was toppled. Many Iranians have not forgiven it for then siding with Iraq during the stalemated war of 1980-88 and rights groups have accused it of abuses at its camps and of cult-like behaviour, both of which it denies. The Mujahideen are the main force behind the National Council of Resistance of Iran, which like Pahlavi has cultivated close ties with some Western politicians. At a Paris forum this week, the council's leader Maryam Rajavi reiterated her opposition to any return of the monarchy, saying "neither the shah nor the mullahs". How far opposition groups outside Iran enjoy any support inside the country is uncertain. While there is fond nostalgia among some Iranians for the period before the revolution, it is an era that most are too young to remember. Within Iran, the successive rounds of national protests have also focused around differing issues. In 2009, demonstrators flooded the streets over what they saw as a stolen presidential election. In 2017, protests focused on falling living standards. And in 2022 women's rights were the trigger. Mir-Hossein Mousavi, the election candidate protesters said had been cheated in 2009, has been under house arrest for years and is now 83. His policy was to reform the Islamic Republic rather than replace it - the goal of many protesters in later movements. For opponents of the Islamic Republic inside Iran, those unanswered questions of whether or when to stage protests, what agenda to pursue, or which leader to follow are only likely to grow more pressing as Israel's airstrikes continue.
Al Jazeera
a day ago
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
‘Regime change' in Iran: The West's undemocratic history
As the military conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, United States President Donald Trump has threatened that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 'an easy target' for American forces. 'We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now … Our patience is wearing thin,' Trump said in a Truth Social post on Tuesday. With the Trump administration considering whether to use US aircraft and weapons to back Israel's campaign against Iran, cracks have begun to appear within his 'Make America Great Again' or MAGA movement. Commentator Tucker Carlson and Trump's one-time adviser Steve Bannon, among other supporters, have argued that the military action against Iran is fundamentally aimed at a regime change, not just at decimating Tehran's nuclear programme. Appearing in Bannon's podcast, War Room, Carlson told him, 'You're not going to convince me that the Iranian people are my enemy. It's Orwell, man. You're not telling me who I have to hate.' In the West, critics of Iran's current rulers have often framed their opposition as shaped by the religious conservatism of the Islamic Republic. But the West's track record of regime change in the country long predates the 1979 revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. So, is Israel calling for regime change in Iran? Is the US supporting that? And what is the history of Western attempts to force regimes it likes on Iran? After Israel launched its attacks on Iran on Friday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Iranians in an English video, saying that he hoped the military operation would 'clear the path for you to achieve your freedom'. Suggesting that Israel's objective in its attacks was to 'thwart the Islamic regime's nuclear and ballistic missile threat to us', Netanyahu added that the Israeli campaign could also lead to a regime change. The Israeli military offensive dubbed 'Operation Rising Lion' is also a name steeped in symbolism. A lion, with a sun behind it, has been an important motif of Persian empires dating back centuries. The lion holding a sword was a part of the Iranian flag under the Pahlavi dynasty that ruled Iran from the late 19th century until 1979. 'The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around [the] flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime,' Netanyahu said on Friday. On June 17, Israel's Persian-language social media account even posted an image of a lion with a sword, piercing the modern Iranian flag bearing Islamic Republic symbols. The post was seen by many as an attempt to invoke nostalgia for pre-revolutionary Iran and nudge Iranians towards resistance. But Marc Owen Jones, an associate professor of media analytics at Northwestern University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that it would be naive to expect that 'Iranians might be swayed by Israeli politicians talking about the significance of a lion'. Jones noted that Israel's lion messaging is also aimed at its domestic audience. 'Israel [is] becoming the lion that would then take over the land. And Israel has portrayed itself as the lion in its historical imagery,' he said. Israel is trying to create a sense that 'this is not just a strategic war, but this ties in with Israel's identity and its longue duree account of this biblical homeland for the Jews', added Jones. However, if the Israeli government wants Iranians to rise up against the regime, Jones said, 'reverting back to Persian historical imagery is not actually going to be very effective, especially when you're Iranians'. While Trump has not formally called for a regime change in Tehran, he has effectively threatened that the US could assassinate Iran's top leader if and when it chooses to. On Wednesday, Trump repeated his call for 'unconditional surrender', standing on the White House lawn. 'Unconditional surrender: That means I've had it. OK? I've had it. I give up. No more. Then we go blow up all the nuclear stuff that's all over the place there,' the US president said. 'For 40 years, they've been saying: Death to America! Death to Israel! Death to anybody else that they didn't like. They were bullies. They were schoolyard bullies, and now they're not bullies any more.' He concluded: 'We're not looking for ceasefire. We're looking for a total complete victory. You know what the victory is? No nuclear weapon.' For the US and its allies, 'total complete victory' in Iran has in the past involved out-and-out regime change. In 1953, over two decades before the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the CIA and British spy agency MI6 orchestrated the overthrow of Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh. Mossadegh had moved to nationalise Iran's oil industry, previously controlled by the British-owned Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (now BP). The move was wildly popular in Iran but enraged Western countries. At the same time, Cold War paranoia was at its peak in Washington, and US officials feared that Mossadegh's government might drift towards the Soviet Union. Together, the US and the United Kingdom launched a covert operation – known as 'Operation Ajax' – to remove Mossadegh. The plan involved funding protests, planting propaganda in local newspapers, and supporting military officers loyal to the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. On August 19, 1953, Mossadegh was removed from power. The shah, who had briefly fled Iran, returned and consolidated power with US backing. Within Iran and in the wider Global South, the coup is widely seen as a turning point, reinforcing perceptions that the West was more interested in controlling oil and influence than supporting democracy. After 1953, the shah ruled Iran as a staunch US ally – and also as an increasingly repressive monarch. The shah launched a top-down agenda called the White Revolution, expanded education and infrastructure, and pushed secular reforms. However, political dissent was brutally suppressed by SAVAK, his secret police. Arbitrary arrests, censorship, and torture became common. Wealth inequality worsened, and his alliance with the West – particularly the US – alienated both the religious establishment and a growing segment of the population. By the late 1970s, public discontent had reached boiling point. Massive demonstrations erupted across the country, calling for the shah's removal. In January 1979, facing overwhelming opposition, he fled Iran. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile to lead the Islamic Revolution. The monarchy collapsed, and the Islamic Republic of Iran was born. Khomeini passed away in 1989 after a prolonged illness and eventual heart failure. Ali Khamenei succeeded him after serving as the president of Iran from 1981 to 1989. Khamenei became Iran's second—and current—supreme leader, holding the chair since June 4, 1989. In his first televised address since the Israeli attacks, Khamenei on Wednesday referred to Trump's 'unconditional surrender' call, noting it was 'unacceptable' and 'arrogant'. 'This nation will never surrender,' Khamenei said. 'America should know that any military intervention will undoubtedly result in irreparable damage.' To this, Trump later said at the White House lawn, 'I say, good luck.'
The National
2 days ago
- Politics
- The National
Is Israel aiming for regime change in Iran?
As Israeli air strikes hammer targets across Iran, officially aimed at dismantling its nuclear and missile infrastructure, questions are being raised about whether the campaign marks the start of a broader push for regime change in Tehran. The name of Israel's air assault – Operation Rising Lion – is a reference to the big cat on Iran's pre-revolutionary flag, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly suggested Iranian citizens rise up against their government. In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, he was asked whether regime change was a goal of the military operation. 'It could certainly be the result, because Iran is very weak,' Mr Netanyahu said. 'The decision to act, to rise up, at this time is the decision of the Iranian people.' He told Israeli journalists the next day that 'this is a very weak regime that now understands how weak it is. We could see many changes in Iran.' Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, has been urging Iranians to rise up, following years of anti-government protests that have been repeatedly met with brutal repression. 'The Islamic Republic has come to its end and is collapsing,' he said in video posted on social media. "What has begun is irreversible. The future is bright, and together, we will turn the page of history. Now is the time to stand up, the time to reclaim Iran. May I be with you soon." Mr Pahlavi, who has lived in exile for decades, has long positioned himself as a potential transitional figure for a post-Islamic Republic Iran. But 'Pahlavi is not a politically significant individual', said Ali Alfoneh, author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran. 'Because of his close association with Prime Minister Netanyahu, his public standing is in freefall in Iran, especially as we are seeing increased number of civilian casualties of the Israeli bombings.' 'Encouraging foreign powers to bomb Iran will not increase his popularity at home,' Mr Alfoneh added. 'He should be asked, 'do you really want to be the king of a heap of ruins? Is this really what you want to be a king for?'' French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday warned against any move to alter Iran's leadership with force. 'We don't want Iran to get a nuclear weapon,' Mr Macron said. 'But the biggest error would be to use military strikes to change the regime because it would then be chaos.' Mr Alfoneh said Israel's end goal is not only the destruction of Iran's nuclear and missile programme, or regime change, but the 'fragmentation of Iran as a state'. 'We are seeing tendencies towards the beginning of a civil war, with Iran's periphery regions rebelling against the centre,' he said. 'It is also remarkable that Israel has also targeted mechanised and armoured divisions in north-western parts of Iran." This amounted to a clear indication that Israel is trying to weaken the armoured divisions that would face any Kurdish insurgents. 'Therefore, I'm not expecting the Iranian middle-class to fight the regime at a time and circumstances when there is a very real risk of collapse of the central power in Tehran and a civil war breaking,' Mr Alfoneh said. The people of Iran will all unite to preserve the country 'in spite of the hatred for the regime'. Israeli operations are designed to weaken Iran's military capacity and destabilise its leadership, but regime change is not the explicit goal, a US-based Iran analyst told The National. 'The aim is to force a choice: Iran can maintain its regime or its nuclear programme, not both,' said Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran. 'I don't think regime change is an explicit goal of this operation.' Still, he noted, 'depending on how events play out, it can result in regime collapse that could lead to regime change'. A political member of an Iraqi armed faction dismissed the possibility of regime change in Tehran. 'If the Israelis believe they can defeat 100 million Iranians, they're delusional,' the official said. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Iran's regional adversaries had steadily intensified their demands – from restricting its nuclear programme to now targeting its missile capabilities and openly discussing overthrowing its government. 'We've definitely noticed the escalation in the rhetoric of aggression towards Iran – from preventing it from obtaining nuclear weapons, to banning enrichment on Iranian soil, then banning enrichment altogether, then dismantling the entire nuclear programme, and now to denying Iran the right to missile capabilities and production – all the way to both veiled and open Israeli threats of regime change in Iran,' the official said. Meanwhile, a political figure close to Iran-backed Hezbollah said Israel's military actions against Iran could redefine regional conflict dynamics. 'The developments in the Israeli aggression against Iran may reveal the potential for a change in the rules of the game and how deeply any foreign actor becomes involved in the war, especially given the Israeli narrative of 'regime change',' the source told The National on condition of anonymity. 'That could shift the entire equation.' They denied Iran had sought military help from Hezbollah or allied groups, despite escalating hostilities. 'It's a given that Hezbollah supports Iran politically, in the media and through public solidarity,' they said. 'Tehran neither needs nor has asked for any military assistance from Hezbollah or any other resistance factions. It's inflicting pain on Israel on its own, without any help.'
The Sun
5 days ago
- Politics
- The Sun
Iran launches 3rd night of strikes as Netanyahu warns war could lead to ‘regime change' in Tehran
IRAN has launched another blistering set of missiles into Israel as the Middle East faces a third night of carnage. Benjamin Netanyahu said just before the latest blitz that Iran is now "very weak" as he warned of an impending "regime change" in Tehran. 5 5 5 5 5 Israel successfully blasted numerous Iranian targets today but Tehran Iran fired back tonight with a barrage of around 30 missiles targeting central Israel and Jerusalem. But the retaliatory attacks have done little to restore much faith among Iranian locals who have spent the past three days awaiting the next Israeli blitz. Chaos erupted in Tehran today as civilians began to flee the Iranian capital amid car bombings and relentless Israeli air strikes. A CNN correspondent based in Tehran has now reported people becoming increasingly more stressed and panicking amid the high intensity attacks. Pictures show hundreds of cars gridlocked on roads as they try to flee the capital city. Local media reports heavy damage was caused to Tehran's urban infrastructure. Many buildings were seen destroyed in various parts of the city. The strikes are also said to have obliterated an aircraft repair centre, and targeted the city's famous Valiasr Square. A slew of car bombings were also reported, which the Iranian media has blamed in Israel. Tel Aviv has denied setting off these bombs. Netanyahu told Fox News ' Special Report with Bret Baier that Iranian civilians are now growing tired of the current regime. The Israeli PM claims the current leadership doesn't "have the people", and says "80 per cent of the people" want to overthrow it. Israeli officials have even said Iran 's theocratic dictator Khamenei is not "off limits" from being targeted in the airstrikes. There is now growing concerns that the US may be drawn into the raging conflict. Donald Trump told ABC News network that it remains possible he will become involved at some point if strikes continue. He warned Tehran would experience "the full strength" of the US military if it attacks the US bases in the Middle East. Iran and Israel sit on the brink of a full-scale war after Tel Aviv accused Tehran of trying to develop a nuclear bomb.
