Latest news with #RaboResearch
Otago Daily Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Otago Daily Times
Tariffs causing uncertainty over demand for beef, milk
New Zealand beef and milk demand was steady over the first quarter of the year but uncertainty looms with the results of export tariffs to the United States and knock-on effects from the flurry of international agreements being negotiated with the Trump administration yet to be factored in to reports. New Zealand beef production for the first three months of this calendar year hit around the 200,000 tonne mark, a report from agribusiness specialist Rabobank shows. That was up by 1% on the previous year. "This uptick defied earlier forecasts predicting a 5% decline in the first three months of the year, with the higher slaughter volumes in the North Island likely influenced by dry on-farm conditions over summer," report co-author RaboResearch senior agricultural analyst Jen Corkran said. However, RaboResearch is still forecasting a 4% decline in total New Zealand production volumes for the 2025 calendar year, the report said. "Slaughter numbers nationally from January 1 to late April 2025 are down by 3.3% compared to the same period in 2024," Ms Corkran said. "We expect slaughter numbers will continue to be lower than 2024 throughout the rest of the year, with production volumes influenced by slaughter weight. "Beef exports were basically flat for Q1 versus 2024, at close to 129,000 tonnes," Ms Corkran said. "However, over the same period, the value of beef exports surged by 30% driven by robust demand and a weaker New Zealand dollar." New Zealand year-on-year export volumes were steady and up 30% by value. "The United States continues to be a key market, accounting for 51% of export volumes and 46% of total value in Q1, 2025. "Conversely, exports to China have further declined, with volumes now making up 31% of overall beef exports." Ms Corkran said the higher export returns were driving record farm-gate prices across all cattle cohorts. "The April-June export data will be crucial in observing changes in trade flows and values, particularly given the implementation of US tariffs." RaboResearch says demand is at historic high for imported beef to the US and with New Zealand facing a base 10% tariff, export volumes should remain steady, though consumers would wear additional costs. Despite that, bigger ramifications could be expected if there is a big change to the US-China trading arrangements. The results of a number of countries entering into and negotiating trade agreements with the US could also have implications for global trade dynamics, RaboResearch says. The United Kingdom, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Canada, Mexico, Israel and Italy are just some of the nations already involved in talks. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and the "potential for a wider series of outcomes" across the season could also affect milk prices, Fonterra says. "Therefore, our opening forecast farm-gate milk price for the 2025-26 season of $10.00 per kgMS sits within a wide forecast range of $8.00-$11.00 per kgMS," a statement from Fonterra chief executive Miles Hurrell said. That forecast puts prices with a range either side of the current season milk price of $10.00 per kgMS. "We've delivered strong shareholder returns through [the financial year] 2025, including a 22c interim dividend, and as we get closer to the end of the [financial] year, we are focused on maintaining this momentum. "Our forecast farm-gate milk price for the current season is driven by strong demand for our milk price reference products and our range is unchanged at $9.70-$10.30 with a midpoint of $10.00 per kgMS. "We're also pleased to tighten our year-end forecast earnings within the existing range, given the strength of our third-quarter performance," Mr Hurrell said.
Yahoo
09-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
World's beef eaters facing major price hikes ahead of barbecue season
Carnivores will likely need deeper pockets this year as global beef supplies tighten and prices head up again, in turn meaning more expensive barbecues, burgers, bolognese and steak dinners. "Global beef production is expected to contract through the remainder of the year, with an overall contraction of 2% projected for the year," according to Angus Gidley-Baird of RaboResearch, part of Dutch lender Rabobank. Some of the world's major cattle and beef producer countries expected to be affected, Gidley-Baird said, with "largest contractions" expected in Brazil and New Zealand, while Europe, the US and China are also likely to see reductions. Even if other suppliers such as Australia and Argentina remain unaffected, the contracting supplies elsewhere are likely to see the "further supporting" of already "elevated" cattle prices. Not only are global cattle markets "trending higher" this year, prices in Europe have seen an "especially strong rise in Q1 [the first quarter of the year] as domestic supplies contracted while demand remained strong." Pests and diseases are affecting cattle supplies in Europe and North America, according to the researchers, who said that although beef has not been mentioned as a commodity to be targeted for tariffs beyond the impact of general or "baseline" measures, the prospect of further trade tensions has seen some reconfiguring of markets. "Reports are emerging that Chinese buyers are looking more toward Australian, New Zealand and South American suppliers as US beef becomes unavailable or more expensive," Rabobank's researchers said. The report follows warnings in some countries that the price of "conventional" beef has reached that of usually more expensive organic beef. This time of year usually sees seasonal high demand and high prices for beef as the 'barbecue season' associated with European and North American summers approaches. Global food prices already saw significant increases during Covid lockdowns and in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, a war pitting two major food commodity producers against each other. Prices for the most part have not returned to their pre-2020 level, with recent reports warning of further rises for staples such as coffee, cocoa, olive oil and sugar.
Agriland
03-06-2025
- Business
- Agriland
Rabobank: Uncertainty for global beef markets
Global cattle markets have all been trending higher in the first half of 2025, according to a recent RaboResearch report. However, since US President Donald Trump took office in January 2025, uncertainty and unpredictability have reverberated through the global beef market. With beef as one of the largest agricultural commodities traded by the US, any change to US trading arrangements has the potential to affect the beef market at a national and, in turn, a global level. With the global supply and demand situation, RaboResearch expects trade flows to be maintained. Source: RaboResearch However, this is likely to change if major trading blocs such as Europe and China become involved in a trade war with the US. Contracting supplies driving up cattle prices Global cattle markets have been trending higher in the first half of 2025, according to RaboResearch. European prices experienced an especially strong rise in the first quarter of 2025, as domestic supplies contracted while demand remained strong. Senior analyst – Animal Protein for RaboResearch, Angus Gidley-Baird said: 'The rise in European prices now puts them in line with the strong North American cattle prices, which continue to rise slowly. 'In both Europe and the US, disease and pests are affecting cattle supplies. In Europe, and now in the UK, bluetongue continues to affect the herd. 'Meanwhile, New World screwworm in Mexico has caused US authorities to close the border to Mexican cattle imports, and the risk of potential infestation in the US is increasing.' These health threats are challenging production in markets where cattle supplies are already historically low, likely further supporting already elevated cattle prices. Production declines Global beef production is expected to contract through the remainder of the year, with an overall contraction of 2% projected for the year, according to researchers at Rabobank. The largest contractions are expected to happen in Brazil (down 5%) and New Zealand (down 4%), with contractions also expected in Europe, the US, and China. Australia is one of the few regions expected to see a production increase. Global trade managing disruptions On April 5, tariffs were introduced for many countries exporting beef into the US. Additional, so-called reciprocal tariffs for identified countries are on hold until early July, and the US-China tariff escalation has also been put on hold until early August. While negotiations are ongoing, some redistribution of beef trade volumes around the world is becoming apparent. Reports are emerging that Chinese buyers are looking more toward Australian, New Zealand, and South American suppliers as US beef becomes more expensive. Global beef demand to remain stable Although the full extent of the trade war remains uncertain, RaboResearch has stated that it remains cautiously optimistic about beef demand and trade flows. 'Beef isn't being singled out as a targeted commodity, and most major exporters are only facing baseline tariffs,' Gidley-Baird continued. 'So early indications suggest that competitive positions will be maintained, albeit with added costs to the system. 'The global supply and demand situation should maintain current trade flows. But if the US-China tariff war escalates and Europe becomes more involved, this is likely to change. 'Much of the media attention has been on the imposition of tariffs, but this may only be the opener to the main event,' he added. However, RaboResearch said that while tariffs may have grabbed headlines, the real story will be the implications of shifting global trade dynamics.
West Australian
03-06-2025
- Business
- West Australian
Australian farmers poised for near-record beef production as other countries produce less
Australian cattle farmers are gunning to exceed the beef production records they set last year, with cattle prices expected to 'remain steady' or potentially rise in the face of political tensions. Rabobank's new Australian beef seasonal outlook painted a positive picture for beef producers — who produced 2.57 million tonnes last year — with the nation's high beef production volumes being matched by growing global demand. The annual report, produced by the agribusiness banking specialist's RaboResearch division, revealed the 'relatively-balanced' market would support stable prices and good returns for Australian beef producers. Report author, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird, said successive favourable seasons – with the exception of ongoing significant dry areas in Victoria and south-east South Australia – had allowed Australian cattle numbers to build. 'The increased calving from this larger cattle inventory is now flowing into markets as finished cattle, with 2024 setting a new record (2.57Mt) in Australian beef production,' Mr Gidley-Baird said. Rabobank modelling indicates that the National Young Cattle Indicator should trade between 360¢/kg and 425¢/kg lwt (liveweight – the weight of a live animal) in 2025 with an average across the year of 409¢/kg. 'This would be a 23 per cent increase on the average price of 2024,' Mr Gidley-Baird said. 'And modelling for 2026 shows a range of 400¢/kg to 420¢/kg with an average across the year of 410¢/kg.' Mr Gidley-Baird said higher cash receipts would offset an expected rise in costs, leading to a lift in farm cash income. The number of cattle turned off this year is expected to remain high, with high carcase weights meaning the production volume would remain close to last year's record. The beef production boom comes as Australia's competitors temper their production this year, creating demand for imports and reducing competition in Australian export markets. Brazil's beef production was set to plummet five per cent, or 555,000t, while US production would dip 100,000t and China 40,000t. With these factors in mind, Mr Gidley-Baird said it was likely cattle prices would remain steady or even rise. 'However, as we have seen in the first four months of the year, there remain uncertainties around trade, with the imposition of tariffs and geopolitical tensions that can lead to trade disruptions,' Mr Gidley-Baird said. 'Notwithstanding, 2025 is shaping up to be a good year for the Australian beef cattle industry with steady prices and strong production.' The US is flagged to remain Australia's biggest beef export market, which Mr Gidley-Baird said would drive 'strong import demand and higher prices' — despite US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Australian beef imports. Rabobank's report echoed prior industry forecasts that the US was entering a period of cattle-herd rebuild, but predicted it would 'be minor' this year. The report revealed Australia's domestic beef consumption, per capita, would drop slightly this year due to ongoing economic pressures. But that figure could change as household incomes increase, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.
NZ Herald
30-05-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
Listen to The Country online: Beef Quarterly preview with Rabobank's Jen Corkran
Jen Corkran, senior analyst for animal protein at RaboResearch, spoke to Hamish McKay on The Country today.
