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Wall Street's First-Half Whiplash Rewards All-Weather Portfolios
Wall Street's First-Half Whiplash Rewards All-Weather Portfolios

Yahoo

time2 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Wall Street's First-Half Whiplash Rewards All-Weather Portfolios

(Bloomberg) -- Somehow, for all its drama — tariffs, fiscal brinkmanship, inflation fears, and geopolitical flare-ups — the first half of 2025 may be remembered by diversified investors for something else entirely: the strongest stretch of synchronized market gains in years. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown Rather than spelling a slow-motion disaster for bulls, months of whiplash across equities, fixed income and commodities have rewarded strategic indifference and punished overconfidence. Strategies that spread risk across assets are outperforming by near-historic margins, a shift from the concentrated bets that favored the likes of Big Tech stocks in recent years. A Societe Generale multi-asset portfolio, tracking equities, government bonds, corporate credit, commodities and cash, is on pace for its strongest first-half performance since at least 2008. Even the classic 60/40 stock-bond mix — written off during the pandemic-era disruption as obsolete in a world of uncertain inflation — has proved relatively resilient. Meanwhile, a popular multi-asset strategy known as risk parity is up about 6%, by one measure. This holiday-shortened week offered fresh validation for cautious investors. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of 'elevated uncertainty' around economic growth and said new tariffs could reignite supply-side price pressure. Disappointing economic data and ongoing clashes between Israel and Iran added to the case for investors to stay vigilant about both the business and market cycle. In a market this divided, perhaps the only reasonable stance is to refuse to take a side, favoring instead a principled neutrality in portfolios built for all-weather conditions. 'For every indicator out there that shows the economy is strong, I can give you one that shows it's slowing,' said John Davi, chief executive of Astoria Portfolio Advisors. 'Uncertainty is definitely higher.' In a year when international stocks, gold, and even Bitcoin have outpaced the S&P 500, investors are being rewarded for looking beyond the familiar. Davi's firm's multi-asset ETF, with gold as its top holding, is up more than 10% — a result, he said, of building a portfolio 'meant to survive uncertainty, not predict it.' Trading in the biggest asset classes this week reflected the stunted returns that — despite the April rebound — have made a virtue of going further afield at a time of economic and political anxiety. The S&P 500 ended lower on the week and sits just 1.5% above where it began in January. Ten-year Treasury yields are broadly flat this week, while a broader index of government bonds has returned 3% so far this year. Instead, diversified portfolios have been powered by assets long eschewed during the era of Magnificent-7 exceptionalism. Developed-market equities excluding the US and Canada have climbed 14% year-to-date, while the Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged 8% this year, while gold has soared nearly 30%. 'I find that when it comes to owning things outside the US, from the US investor point of view, there's a lot of reluctance,' said SocGen's Manish Kabra. 'The only time you are really diversified is when you have assets that you don't want to own.' US investors are starting to get the message. Based on inflows, the top dozen ETFs tracked by Bloomberg over the past month encompass a broadening palette of asset classes, including gold, Bitcoin, overseas equities and short-term T-bills, alongside US stocks and bonds. 'ETFs are a natural solution to find diversification through other forms of equity exposure or yield hunting in the fixed income space, particularly to strategies with limited duration risk,' said Todd Sohn of Strategas. 'Ultra-short duration strategies have taken in the second-most inflows of categories we track.' To be sure, the old-school asset classes remain the main destination for investor cash. Equity ETFs have pulled in roughly $56 billion so far in June, surpassing May and April totals, with still around one week. Total cross-asset flows now stand at $523 billion, which means ETFs are on track to take in more than $1 trillion this year, after topping that number for the first time in 2024. How those bets fare in the evolving macroeconomic climate remains to be seen. A string of weaker-than-estimated data releases has pushed Citigroup's US Economic Surprise Index to its lowest level since September. On Wednesday, Fed officials downgraded their estimates for growth this year while lifting forecasts for unemployment and inflation. 'The macro backdrop has shifted so quickly this year,' said Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, a $100 billion registered investment adviser. 'Concentration helps in a bull market. Diversification helps you keep what you've earned when the macro backdrop shifts frequently.' Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio

Trump Pledge of Quick China Magnet Flows Has Yet to Materialize
Trump Pledge of Quick China Magnet Flows Has Yet to Materialize

Yahoo

time4 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Trump Pledge of Quick China Magnet Flows Has Yet to Materialize

(Bloomberg) -- Almost 10 days since President Donald Trump declared a 'done' trade deal with Beijing, US companies remain largely in the dark on when they'll receive crucial magnets from China — and whether Washington, in turn, will allow a host of other exports to resume. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown While there has been a trickle of required permits, many American firms that need Chinese minerals are still waiting on Beijing's approval for shipments, according to people familiar with the process. China's system is improving but remains cumbersome, they said, contrary to Trump's assurances rare earths would flow 'up front' after a June 11 accord struck in London. The delays are holding an array of American industries hostage to the rocky US-China relationship, as some firms wait for magnets and others face restrictions selling to China. That friction risks derailing a fragile tariff truce clinched by Washington and Beijing in Geneva last month, and triggering fresh rounds of retaliation. Interviews with multiple Western buyers, industry insiders and officials familiar with discussions revealed frustration over vague policies in both countries and lingering confusion about what level of magnet approvals from China would trigger Trump to abandon his tit-for-tat export curbs. 'Even if export approvals accelerate, there are so many unknowns about the licensing regime that it's impossible for companies to have a strong sense of certainty about future supply,' said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Research. 'At a minimum, they need to factor in a real possibility that talks could break down again, and exports will be halted.' In response to China's sluggishness on magnets, Trump last month restricted US firms from exporting chip software, jet engines and a key ingredient to make plastic to China until President Xi Jinping restores rare-earth exports. Companies subject to Washington's curbs have halted billions of dollars in planned shipments as they wait for players in unrelated sectors to secure permits from Beijing, which could take weeks or even months to process, given the current pace. Corporate chiefs affected by the export-control spat have sought clarity from the administration on its strategy, according to people familiar with the matter. The Commerce Department — which administers the rules — has offered few details, they added. Oil industry executives have tried to convince Trump officials that blocking exports of ethane — a gas used to make plastics — is contrary to US national security interests, according to people familiar with the deliberations. Business leaders have asked for export restrictions to be removed but that's been unsuccessful so far, the people said. Energy and chemical giant INEOS Group Holdings SA has one tanker full of ethane waiting to go, while Enterprise Products Partners has three to four cargo ships stuck in limbo, according to a person familiar with the matter. That's particularly galling because China has adequate ethane supplies in reserve and can switch to using naphtha from the Middle East and other regions for much of their production, the people said. Representatives from the companies did not respond to requests for comment. Industry figures have consistently told the Trump administration the ethane export restrictions are inflicting more pain on US interests than on China, according to the people. China's Ministry of Commerce, which administers export licenses, hasn't responded to Bloomberg's questions on how many for rare earths have been granted since the London talks. At a regular briefing in Beijing on Thursday, spokesperson He Yadong said Beijing was 'accelerating' its process and had given the go-ahead to a 'certain number of compliant applications.' Access to rare earths is an issue 'that is going to continue to metastasize until there is resolution,' said Adam Johnson, chief executive officer of Principal Mineral, which invests in US mineral supply chains for industrial defense. 'This is just a spigot that can be turned on and off by China.' China only agreed to grant licenses — if at all — for six months, before companies need to reapply for approvals. Firms doing business in the US and China could see recurring interruptions, unless the Commerce Ministry significantly increases its pace of process applications. Adding an extra layer of jeopardy for US companies, Chinese suppliers to America's military-industrial base are unlikely to get any magnet permits. After Trump imposed sky-high tariffs in April, Beijing put samarium — a metal essential for weapons such as guided missiles, smart bombs and fighter jets — on a dual-use list that specifically prohibits its shipment for military use. Denying such permits could cause ties to further spiral if Trump believes those actions violate the agreement, the terms of which were never publicized in writing by either side. That sticking point went unresolved during roughly 20 hours of negotiations last week in the UK capital, people familiar with the details said. Complicating the issue, companies often buy magnets from third-party suppliers, which serve both defense and auto firms, according to a person familiar with the matter. That creates a high burden to prove to Chinese authorities a shipment's final destination is a motor not a missile, the person added. Beijing still hasn't officially spelled out the deal's requirements, nor has Xi publicly signaled his endorsement of it — a step Trump said was necessary. 'The Geneva and London talks made solid progress towards negotiating an eventual comprehensive trade deal with China,' White House spokesman Kush Desai said. 'The administration continues to monitor China's compliance with the agreement reached at Geneva.' China's Commerce Ministry is working to facilitate more approvals even as it asks for reams of information on how the materials will be used, according to people familiar with the process. In some cases, companies have been asked to supply data including detailed product designs, one of the people said. Morris Hammer, who leads the US rare-earth magnet business for South Korean steelmaker Posco Holdings Inc., said Chinese officials have expedited shipments for some major US and European automakers since Trump announced the agreement. China's Advanced Technology & Materials said Wednesday it had obtained permits for some magnet orders, without specifying for which destinations. The company's customers include European aerospace giant Airbus SE, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Around half of US suppliers to Toyota Motor Corp., for example, have had export licenses granted, the company said – but they're still waiting for those materials to actually be delivered. It's likely some of the delays are transport-related, one of the people said. Even with permits coming online, rare-earth materials are still scarce because overseas shipments were halted for two months starting in April, depleting inventories. Trump's agreement 'will allow for rare earths to flow out of the country for a short period of time, but it's not helping the auto industry because they're still talking shutdowns,' Hammer said. 'Nobody trusts that this thaw is going to last.' For many automakers, the situation remains unpredictable – forcing some to hunt for alternatives to Chinese supplies. Two days after Trump touted a finalized trade accord in London, Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley described a 'day-to-day' dynamic around rare-earths licenses – which have already forced the company to temporarily shutter one plant. General Motors Co. has emphasized it's on firmer footing in the longer term, because it invested in domestic magnet making back in 2021. The automaker has an exclusive deal to get the products from MP Materials Corp. in Texas, with production starting later in the year. It has another deal with eVAC of Germany to get magnets from a South Carolina plant starting in 2026. In the meantime, GM and its suppliers have applied for permits to get magnets from China, a person familiar with the matter said. Scott Keogh, the CEO of Scout Motors — the upstart EV brand of Volkswagen AG — told Bloomberg Television his company is re—engineering brakes and drive units to reduce the need for rare earths. Scout is building a plant in South Carolina to make fully electric and hybrid SUVs as well as trucks starting in 2027. Until the rare-earth supply line is re-opened to Washington's satisfaction, Trump has indicated that the US is likely to keep in place its own export restrictions. Senior US officials have suggested the curbs are about building and using leverage, rather than their official justification: national security. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the measures were used to 'annoy' China into complying with a deal US negotiators thought they'd already reached. Restrictions on sales to China of electronic design automation software for chipmaking are emblematic of the standoff. Those EDA tools are used to design everything, from the highest-end processors for the likes of Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. to simple parts, such as power-regulation components. Fully limiting China's access to the best software, made by a trio of Western firms, has been a longtime priority in some Washington national security circles — and would build on years of US measures targeting China's semiconductor prowess. While some senior Trump officials specifically indicated the administration would relax some semiconductor-related curbs if Beijing relents on rare earths, EDA companies still lack details on when, and whether, their China access will be restored, said industry officials who requested anonymity to speak candidly. Even if that happens, there's worry that heightened geopolitical risks will push Chinese customers to hunt for other suppliers or further develop domestic capabilities. 'The risk is there for the London deal to fall apart,' said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. 'Because rare earths is a very granular issue and mistakes can be made.' --With assistance from Jennifer A. Dlouhy, David Welch, Lucille Liu, James Mayger, Jing Li, Joe Ryan and Nicholas Lua. Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Stop wasting AI on personal productivity: 60% of leaders pivot to agentic automation for real enterprise value
Stop wasting AI on personal productivity: 60% of leaders pivot to agentic automation for real enterprise value

Time of India

time8 hours ago

  • Business
  • Time of India

Stop wasting AI on personal productivity: 60% of leaders pivot to agentic automation for real enterprise value

Automation Anywhere , the leader in Agentic Process Automation (APA), today released a new proprietary research report developed in collaboration with Forrester Consulting, revealing key barriers and breakthroughs shaping enterprise adoption of AI agents . The findings highlight the increasing momentum of AI agents across industries, as well as the implementation challenges organizations must address to realize their full potential. The study, based on a survey of global decision-makers overseeing enterprise-wide AI strategies, found that 60% of respondents believe automation platforms—especially those from RPA leaders like Automation Anywhere—are the most valuable foundation for managing AI-driven processes . This preference outpaces general-purpose AI providers such as OpenAI (ChatGPT) and Anthropic (Claude), as well as broader enterprise platforms like Microsoft Power Automate and Salesforce Einstein, highlighting the need for automation-native solutions purpose-built for process orchestration and scale. Additionally, 71% of respondents agreed that automation solutions should augment human capabilities rather than replace them—reinforcing the importance of keeping strategic decision-making in human hands. 'This research highlights a critical inflection point for enterprises,' said Mihir Shukla, CEO of Automation Anywhere. 'Leaders are clearly prioritizing AI-augmented workflows, recognizing the undeniable value of Agentic AI. The fact that a significant majority are specifically seeking these solutions from traditional RPA and task automation vendors underscores that deep process automation expertise is critical to scale adoption and unlock meaningful impact, accelerating the journey to the autonomous enterprise and paving the path to artificial general intelligence for work.' Key Insights from the Study:High interest meets practical hurdles With deep roots in automation and RPA, Automation Anywhere's Agentic Process Automation (APA) is purpose-built to overcome the key hurdles slowing AI agent adoption. While 74% of respondents recognize the promise of AI agents to surface insights from vast data sets, concerns around data privacy (66%), skillset gaps (63%), and integration complexity (61%) persist. APA is designed to balance autonomous execution with enterprise-grade governance and human oversight—making it possible to scale safely and effectively. Transformational opportunities across business functions Organizations are already piloting or implementing AI agents for internal employee support (53%) and customer service (48%). Many plan to extend these capabilities to broader business functions, to enterprise automation and organizational stewardship in the next two years. The potential value of AI agents for areas such as customer service, sales automation, and compliance received transformational value ratings exceeding eight out of ten on average. Businesses demand enterprise-grade AI automation platforms When evaluating platforms for building and deploying AI agents, 60% of respondents found intelligent automation platforms from RPA (Robotic Process Automation) and task automation vendors to be highly valuable for long-running processes. Organizations strongly prefer solutions capable of enterprise-grade integration, end-to-end process orchestration, and mature data security. Early adoption & transformational value Nearly 75% of leaders plan to pilot AI agents for customer support within the next year, with 71% eyeing research applications. Across all potential use cases, respondents expect transformational levels of value, underscoring strong confidence in AI agents' impact. Navigating the road ahead While challenges remain, enterprise leaders are clear-eyed and confident about the transformational potential of AI agents. By proactively addressing hurdles around security, cost, and talent, organizations can move beyond experimentation and begin scaling Agentic AI to drive measurable business outcomes.

Nearly 1,000 Ships' GPS Jammed Near Iran Daily, Navy Group Says
Nearly 1,000 Ships' GPS Jammed Near Iran Daily, Navy Group Says

Yahoo

time8 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Nearly 1,000 Ships' GPS Jammed Near Iran Daily, Navy Group Says

(Bloomberg) -- Close to 1,000 ships a day are seeing their GPS signals jammed near Iran's coast, according to a French naval liaison group. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown The disruption makes it harder to navigate safely at night, in poor visibility or when there's heavy shipping traffic, the MICA Center, which promotes co-operation between navies and commercial shipping said in a post on X. On average 970 vessels have had their signals jammed daily since June 13, it said. It's likely the disruption was an aggravating factor in the fiery crash between the Front Eagle and Adalynn oil tankers earlier this week, the center said, adding that the exact causes of the collision have yet to be determined. Heavy disruption to GPS signal as vessels navigate the narrow Strait of Hormuz has been one of the main impacts on global shipping since Israel attacked Iran last week. About a fifth of the world's oil flows through the narrow waterway, making it a vital chokepoint for energy supplies. Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Stop Wasting AI on Personal Productivity: 60% of Leaders Pivot to Agentic Automation for Real Enterprise Value
Stop Wasting AI on Personal Productivity: 60% of Leaders Pivot to Agentic Automation for Real Enterprise Value

Yahoo

timea day ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Stop Wasting AI on Personal Productivity: 60% of Leaders Pivot to Agentic Automation for Real Enterprise Value

New Research Confirms Costly Copilot Limitations, Driving Demand for Governed, Process-Centric AI Solutions That Accelerate Autonomy SAN JOSE, Calif., June 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Automation Anywhere, the leader in Agentic Process Automation (APA), today released a new proprietary research report developed in collaboration with Forrester Consulting, revealing key barriers and breakthroughs shaping enterprise adoption of AI agents. The findings highlight the increasing momentum of AI agents across industries, as well as the implementation challenges organizations must address to realize their full potential. The study, based on a survey of global decision-makers overseeing enterprise-wide AI strategies, found that 60% of respondents believe automation platforms—especially those from Robotic Process Automation (RPA) and AI leaders like Automation Anywhere—are the most valuable foundation for managing AI-driven processes. This preference outpaces general-purpose AI providers such as OpenAI (ChatGPT) and Anthropic (Claude), as well as broader enterprise platforms like Microsoft Power Automate and Salesforce Einstein, highlighting the need for automation-native solutions purpose-built for process orchestration and scale. Additionally, 71% of respondents agreed that automation solutions should augment human capabilities rather than replace them—reinforcing the importance of keeping strategic decision-making in human hands. "This research highlights a critical inflection point for enterprises," said Mihir Shukla, CEO of Automation Anywhere. "Leaders are clearly prioritizing AI-augmented workflows, recognizing the undeniable value of Agentic AI. The fact that a significant majority are specifically seeking these solutions from modern, cloud-native RPA and AI automation vendors underscores that deep process automation expertise is critical to scale adoption and unlock meaningful impact, accelerating the journey to the autonomous enterprise and paving the path to artificial general intelligence for work." Key Insights from the Study: High Interest Meets Practical Hurdles With deep roots in AI-powered automation and RPA, Automation Anywhere's APA system is purpose-built to overcome the key hurdles slowing AI agent adoption. While 74% of respondents recognize the promise of AI agents to surface insights from vast data sets, concerns around data privacy (66%), skillset gaps (63%), and integration complexity (61%) persist. APA is designed to balance autonomous execution with enterprise-grade governance and human oversight—making it possible to scale safely and effectively. Transformational Opportunities Across Business Functions Organizations are already piloting or implementing AI agents for internal employee support (53%) and customer service (48%). Many plan to extend these capabilities to broader business functions, to enterprise automation and organizational stewardship in the next two years. The potential value of AI agents for areas such as customer service, sales automation, and compliance received transformational value ratings exceeding eight out of ten on average. With the launch of our new Agentic Solutions, Automation Anywhere is helping organizations accelerate this shift—offering pre-built, enterprise-grade AI agents that go beyond pilots to deliver real business impact across customer service, finance, compliance, and more. Businesses Demand Enterprise-Grade AI Automation Platforms When evaluating platforms for building and deploying AI agents, 60% of respondents found intelligent automation platforms from RPA and AI automation vendors to be highly valuable for long-running processes. Organizations strongly prefer solutions capable of enterprise-grade integration, end-to-end process orchestration, and mature data security. Automation Anywhere is uniquely positioned to meet these enterprise demands with their APA system—offering intelligent, secure, and scalable AI agents that integrate seamlessly across systems, orchestrate complex, long-running processes end-to-end, and uphold the highest standards of data security and governance. Early Adoption & Transformational Value Nearly 75% of leaders plan to pilot AI agents for customer support within the next year, with 71% eyeing research applications. Across all potential use cases, respondents expect transformational levels of value, underscoring strong confidence in AI agents' impact. Navigating the Road Ahead While challenges remain, enterprise leaders are clear-eyed and confident about the transformational potential of AI agents. By proactively addressing hurdles around security, cost, and talent, organizations can move beyond experimentation and begin scaling Agentic AI to drive measurable business outcomes. Those that act decisively today will be best positioned to lead in the AI-powered enterprise of tomorrow. Automation Anywhere is helping enterprises accelerate this journey—offering a secure, cost-effective, and easy-to-adopt APA system with new pre-built Agentic Solutions and the agentic solutions workspace that reduce complexity, lower barriers to entry, and empower business users to confidently scale AI agents. About Automation Anywhere Automation Anywhere is the leader in Agentic Process Automation (APA) and guided by its vision to fuel the future of work by unleashing human potential through automation. Learn more at SOURCE Automation Anywhere, Inc. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data

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