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Economic Times
15 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Retail investors now the smart money, HNIs more prone to panic: Sandeep Tandon
If I have to see, look at in last one year redemptions at our end, just do a redemption analysis, majority of the money if I have to say, if I say, maybe two-third of my redemption is coming from HNI and family office; only one-third comes and that also very interesting within one-third majority of redemption which coming from real retail investor is come from direct line not through regular route, they also need handholding. "I can say with good amount of confidence, at least till 2047 when demographic cycle peaks out in India, till then India PE multiple remains elevated for maybe you are talking about another 22 years or so, so it is more than 16 years I am saying that India multiple remain highest, which means earnings will expand but PE expansion is very important. So, as long PE remain elevated, the probability that you make good returns from the market," says Sandeep Tandon, CIO, Quant Mutual Fund. We were just reminiscing in the last 16 years the markets have seen so much. The world has seen so much, yet you have made just phenomenal returns. If you just did nothing, that is all you had to do. Sandeep Tandon: Correct. Are the next 16 going to be like that? Sandeep Tandon: It is very difficult to visualise exact 16 years. But if I have to look at India, there is a very interesting data, I will show you, like a lot of people forecast earnings, what will be the earnings for 5 years, 10 years perspective generally look at in numbers. We as Quant from a behaviour perspective we try to forecast the multiples. How we define multiple? Through perception, analytics. It is again interesting thesis which we have built, India perception has changed, something has dramatically changed in last few years. And if I have to say that India perception has changed and which means the PE multiple of Indian stock market will remain elevated from longer term perspective. I can say with good amount of confidence, at least till 2047 when demographic cycle peaks out in India, till then India PE multiple remains elevated for maybe you are talking about another 22 years or so, so it is more than 16 years I am saying that India multiple remain highest, which means earnings will expand but PE expansion is very important. So, as long PE remain elevated, the probability that you make good returns from the 16 years we have had magical moments -- jam trinity, financial inclusion, made in India, startup, Maha Kumbh. Which really could be the big factor at play, what could be that secret ingredient or secret sauce which in a sense will bind Indian market forward? Sandeep Tandon: I think what has changed in last maybe, if I have to say in this Modi's decade, it is about same thing, India perception. The young people, not only their risk appetite is clearly visible, they believe they can demonstrate few things. The neglected people, they are coming back and that is a big force to reckon. Like, people talk about China is about their government, they are doing it. Here the entrepreneurship and we are seeing for the first time this level of entrepreneurship even from the institute, people wants to start their own companies not join the companies, so that is something has changed. And financial inclusion has played a very important role in this whole journey. I will say even 2020 remember as a covid issue, but something got changed in 2020. A lot of people were sitting at home, first time they analysed their investment and actually the expenses was not there, I think that was a change moment where people started focusing on investment and the wealth got created. Now, that that M2M gains which retail investor sitting is very meaningful and that is actually driving. So, I always say every bull run is driven by some leadership, this time leadership is retail and retail base is very large. So, if you can say maybe a decadal opportunity from a returns perspective, maybe we have seen just five years or so for the current decade. Since you are so much into psychology of the markets and market participants, retail also comes with panic. Retail also comes with every news flash and reacting to every news flash. I am not talking about the mutual fund corpus money, but I am talking about more active participants. Sandeep Tandon: I always try to refer, this is some interesting work which we have done, when you talk about retail investor, it is actually jumbled up. Anything which is in non-institution is considered as retail actually. Actually, it is not. You have to differentiate that component from a HNI, family office, ultra-HNI and I always said that we can always see exactly at the bottom of the cycle, actually they are buyer, they are not getting panic. Who is getting panic? The people who are doing business. When I differentiate investor versus business, anybody who looks at their M2M on daily basis, for them this is the business and hence even market fall 10% if they believe that market can fall another 10%, they will exit, where retail investor is not. So, you have to differentiate the type of investor. Investor do not panic so easily. BUT somebody is doing business, which is the case for large family office, ultra-HNI, and HNIs, that segments panic. If I have to see, look at in last one year redemptions at our end, just do a redemption analysis, majority of the money if I have to say, if I say, maybe two-third of my redemption is coming from HNI and family office; only one-third comes and that also very interesting within one-third majority of redemption which coming from real retail investor is come from direct line not through regular route, they also need handholding. So, what is the mood in the market right now because the news flow, the noise around geopolitics, domino effect on crude, tariffs, it is so high. But if I just look at the index in the last 28 days, the index has done nothing. We have moved in just a 600-point band. Sandeep Tandon: So, one way of looking at the turmoil or geopolitical volatility. Other way of looking at, look at we have seen India-Pakistan tension, we have seen trade war, we have seen now Middle East issue further escalating. Market has actually given you some positive returns. And the confidence is coming back. If you really look at September, October, and particularly January, February first quarter where some amount of capitulative move we saw in the market, I think that is changing and confidence is coming back and then market realised that India is the most safest place. In fact, three months back we made this call not only from India, India is a risk-on rally and globally is a risk-off. But what is very important is the decoupling process for India has begun. We believe India has now decoupled from global market, that is a cycle which we have been talking about in 2025 it begins, and we have seen now the decoupling process has begun. You look at the impact what happened in the US market, we are hardly any impact out here. And the turmoil which we are seeing, the first country used to get affected purely from a crude perspective. And if you really look at this time also, crude has also spiked very recently, it has only because of very recent phenomena we have seen the impact. Otherwise, crude also has been pretty stable. So, we are jumping from long-term to short-term. We have got a short-term view. Let us talk about the long-term view. Long-term view is that the PE multiples will remain elevated. India becomes what could be called as a special situation stock. What could be the next aha thing for India? For example, coming back by the SIP investor has been the aha moment. Digitisation has been the aha moment. Make in India has been the aha moment. What is the next aha moment for India now? Sandeep Tandon: Very difficult to visualise in at this point in time, but only thing the way I look at from a regulations point of view, sebi has include the, we can talk about our industry, sif, the specialised investment fund, a new category. And obviously it is like we were the first to get that approval, but what is very important is that new segment is coming where it really help you from a diversification perspective. Like globally when you talk about hedge fund criteria, people trade or the prop desk or the high frequency algo, with route a short-term investment thesis will also gather momentum that is how you can make money in the short-term perspective also, how you better manage your returns also, how diversification through sif route also you can create better risk adjusted book. So, new instrument which is coming, which is not the case… Let us say some of these instrument was the part of only the HNI, family office, or the large ticket customer, I think now real, real retail customer will also be able to participate through SIF route and some more products will come. So, I am more excited that you will see innovation coming through product. Technology is obviously playing a very important role. Cost is coming down drastically. And what is very important when I talk about perception has changed, India, like people, retail investors are more convinced this time and I am saying they have become much more mature than as compared to what I have seen in 10, 20, 30 years. This time something is very different. Retail has not panic. If you really look at, they are not getting capitulated so easily. It is the more sophisticated investor they are panicking much earlier because they are more smart and they are more educated and leveraged. So, it is a phenomena something which we have to really respect the real retail investor is coming and they have patience now. So, what falls into your buy and hold category for next five years, 16 years is a long time, for next five years? Sandeep Tandon: Yes, I agree. So, five years let us say given the geopolitical turmoil, we also believe that beginning of the year say next five years also going to be challenging from a global perspective. Hence, I like to be more focused on the domestic economy. So, power is the theme. Power remains buy on dips. It is a decadal opportunity. So, if next five year, I think by 2032, power stocks should do well. All energy basket should do very well. Then, I will more bullish on the India infrastructure space, not just EPC companies, large infra plays whether ports, airports, even you can say EPC company, also large infra names which should be a biggest beneficiary because we have seen irrespective of state government also the infra spending has not cut down. I think we are in a massive investment phase in India, so that is a space which we like. And obviously if infra does well, then logically materials should also follow. So, I am saying first infra. And consumption as a theme is also coming back. The tax benefit which government has given, the RBI recent cuts will also boost the consumption. So, a lot of consumption stock which have been neglected territory or they were erstwhile admiring territory stock, those are the names one should look at. Hospitality space we still like, whether you talk about hotels, hospitals. So, those are the area. Services industry also. We want to see something new now. Like all those names which has been in admired territory for last few years may or may not give you that sort of returns going forward, so I will look for under ownership, I look for attractive valuation and research or I say uncovered.
Mint
4 days ago
- Business
- Mint
LIC-backed NBFC raises ₹2,000 crores via QIP; Quant Mutual Fund ups stake to 5.96%
Capri Global Capital shares fell more than 5% during the early part of Monday's trading session; however, the stock has bounced back in the latter half of the session today. According to Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical and Derivative Analyst at Angel One, Capri Global Capital shares highly volatile counter witnessing sharp swings on both sides. After a gap-down start today, the stock recovered to trade flat. The recent low near ₹ 150 acts as strong support, while a breakout above ₹ 185 and the 200DMA could trigger positive momentum. Traders should wait for a decisive move beyond the ₹ 150– ₹ 185 range. Capri Global Capital share price today opened at ₹ 167.65 apiece on the BSE, the stock touched an intraday high of ₹ 172.60 per share, and an intraday low of ₹ 161.50 per share. As per shareholding pattern public shareholder for the quarter ending 12 June 2025 on the BSE, Life Insurance Corporation Of India (LIC) holds 7.89% stake in Capri Global Capital. Sbi Life Insurance Co too holds 2.97% stake in the firm. In its most recent filing, the company announced that Quant Mutual Fund raised its stake to 5.96% from 1.53%. The non-banking financial company (NBFC) has announced that it successfully completed its Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP), raising primary equity capital of ₹ 2,000 crores by issuing approximately 136.5 million shares to institutional buyers. The QIP Committee, authorized by the Board, met on June 12, 2025, to determine the pricing and allocation for the QIP. As stated in an exchange filing, this is the company's first QIP in the past ten years. The offering received an enthusiastic response from a diverse group of institutional investors, including both foreign and domestic long-only funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies such as Quant Mutual Fund, 3P Investment, BlackRock, Think Investments, Allspring Global Investments, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, HDFC Life Insurance, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, SBI General Insurance, HDFC ERGO General Insurance, TATA AIF, and many other long-only investors, underscoring the company's execution and technological capabilities, strong governance, and long-term vision. 'The successful QIP marks a significant milestone in Company's growth journey. The capital raised will enable us to capitalise on growth opportunities across key lending verticals, expand our geographical presence, invest in AI & data science capabilities and strengthen our capital base,' said Rajesh Sharma, Managing Director of the company.
Mint
5 days ago
- Business
- Mint
LIC-backed NBFC raises ₹2,000 crores via QIP; Quant Mutual Fund ups stake to 5.96%
Capri Global Capital shares fell more than 5% during the early part of Monday's trading session; however, the stock has bounced back in the latter half of the session today. According to Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical and Derivative Analyst at Angel One, Capri Global Capital shares highly volatile counter witnessing sharp swings on both sides. After a gap-down start today, the stock recovered to trade flat. The recent low near ₹ 150 acts as strong support, while a breakout above ₹ 185 and the 200DMA could trigger positive momentum. Traders should wait for a decisive move beyond the ₹ 150– ₹ 185 range. Capri Global Capital share price today opened at ₹ 167.65 apiece on the BSE, the stock touched an intraday high of ₹ 172.60 per share, and an intraday low of ₹ 161.50 per share. As per shareholding pattern public shareholder for the quarter ending 12 June 2025 on the BSE, Life Insurance Corporation Of India (LIC) holds 7.89% stake in Capri Global Capital. Sbi Life Insurance Co too holds 2.97% stake in the firm. In its most recent filing, the company announced that Quant Mutual Fund raised its stake to 5.96% from 1.53%. The non-banking financial company (NBFC) has announced that it successfully completed its Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP), raising primary equity capital of ₹ 2,000 crores by issuing approximately 136.5 million shares to institutional buyers. The QIP Committee, authorized by the Board, met on June 12, 2025, to determine the pricing and allocation for the QIP. As stated in an exchange filing, this is the company's first QIP in the past ten years. The offering received an enthusiastic response from a diverse group of institutional investors, including both foreign and domestic long-only funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies such as Quant Mutual Fund, 3P Investment, BlackRock, Think Investments, Allspring Global Investments, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, HDFC Life Insurance, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, SBI General Insurance, HDFC ERGO General Insurance, TATA AIF, and many other long-only investors, underscoring the company's execution and technological capabilities, strong governance, and long-term vision. 'The successful QIP marks a significant milestone in Company's growth journey. The capital raised will enable us to capitalise on growth opportunities across key lending verticals, expand our geographical presence, invest in AI & data science capabilities and strengthen our capital base,' said Rajesh Sharma, Managing Director of the company. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decision.
Economic Times
7 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Gold price above Rs 1 lakh. Will Quant MF prediction come true?
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Amid safe-haven buying due to Israel-Iran tensions and weakness in the dollar index, gold August futures contracts at MCX surged sharply higher by Rs 2,011 or 2.04%, crossing the 1 lakh mark at Rs 1,00,403/10 grams on yellow metal's rally seems unstoppable, but a tone of caution still persists as industry experts recently stated that they foresee a potential near-term correction for the yellow metal Quant Mutual Fund , in a recent note, has highlighted that gold may be due for a short-term correction of 12-15% in dollar terms over the next two months. The fund cautioned investors that the metal may have "peaked out" in the short term, noting that while gold prices have surged recently, the momentum could slow down, and a retracement in prices could be on the Mutual Fund's outlook aligns with broader commodity sentiment, as the firm continues to advise investors to retain exposure to precious metals over the medium to long with the ongoing momentum, what does the future outlook of gold looks like?Despite the anticipated correction, Quant MF itself maintains a constructive view on gold in the longer run, citing its portfolio strategy centered on cyclical awareness and liquidity stated by the firm, 'Our medium-term and long-term views are equally constructive and we reiterate that a meaningful percentage of your portfolio should be dedicated towards precious metals.'Adding to the outlook on gold, Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, shared her views on gold prices in India. She expressed a cautiously positive medium-term outlook for gold, forecasting prices to stabilize at Rs 97,000 per 10 to Chainani, the metal's price reflects significant gains over the past year, driven by global geopolitical tensions and central bank buying. However, Chainani anticipates a potential consolidation or a minor correction, with gold possibly dipping to Rs 90, this, she emphasized that such a dip could present a buying opportunity, particularly if global interest rates remain paused and geopolitical tensions further elaborated, 'The fact that central banks (particularly in emerging markets) still show a strong appetite to buy gold and the safe haven asset status for gold remains intact suggests that the appetite for gold will likely persist.'Looking ahead, Chainani anticipates that unless there is a sudden shift in global risk sentiment or aggressive monetary tightening, gold will likely remain firm, potentially heading towards Rs 1,05,000 in the medium a similar sentiment, Manav Modi, Senior Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services , discussed gold's performance in 2025, noting that the yellow metal has surged more than 30% since the beginning of the year, but has also faced significant attributed the volatility to factors such as President Trump's tariff updates, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over global growth. He explained that while tariffs between the US and China were initially introduced and later reduced, the overall uncertainty in the market, coupled with weak economic data points from the US, continued to support gold a longer-term perspective, Modi sees strong support for gold around Rs 88,000-90,000 per 10 grams, suggesting that investors can maintain a "buy on dips" stance. He projected gold prices could reach Rs 1,00,000-Rs 1,06,000 over the next 12-15 months, provided that key support levels near-term corrections may be imminent, gold's long-term appeal remains intact. Analysts agree that geopolitical risks, central bank actions, and broader economic uncertainties continue to favor gold as a safe-haven asset.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
7 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price above Rs 1 lakh. Will Quant MF prediction come true?
Amid safe-haven buying due to Israel-Iran tensions and weakness in the dollar index, gold August futures contracts at MCX surged sharply higher by Rs 2,011 or 2.04%, crossing the 1 lakh mark at Rs 1,00,403/10 grams on Friday. The yellow metal's rally seems unstoppable, but a tone of caution still persists as industry experts recently stated that they foresee a potential near-term correction for the yellow metal . Quant Mutual Fund , in a recent note, has highlighted that gold may be due for a short-term correction of 12-15% in dollar terms over the next two months. The fund cautioned investors that the metal may have "peaked out" in the short term, noting that while gold prices have surged recently, the momentum could slow down, and a retracement in prices could be on the horizon. Quant Mutual Fund's outlook aligns with broader commodity sentiment, as the firm continues to advise investors to retain exposure to precious metals over the medium to long term. However, with the ongoing momentum, what does the future outlook of gold looks like? Despite the anticipated correction, Quant MF itself maintains a constructive view on gold in the longer run, citing its portfolio strategy centered on cyclical awareness and liquidity trends. As stated by the firm, 'Our medium-term and long-term views are equally constructive and we reiterate that a meaningful percentage of your portfolio should be dedicated towards precious metals.' Adding to the outlook on gold, Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, shared her views on gold prices in India. She expressed a cautiously positive medium-term outlook for gold, forecasting prices to stabilize at Rs 97,000 per 10 grams. According to Chainani, the metal's price reflects significant gains over the past year, driven by global geopolitical tensions and central bank buying. However, Chainani anticipates a potential consolidation or a minor correction, with gold possibly dipping to Rs 90,000. Despite this, she emphasized that such a dip could present a buying opportunity, particularly if global interest rates remain paused and geopolitical tensions de-escalate. Chainani further elaborated, 'The fact that central banks (particularly in emerging markets) still show a strong appetite to buy gold and the safe haven asset status for gold remains intact suggests that the appetite for gold will likely persist.' Looking ahead, Chainani anticipates that unless there is a sudden shift in global risk sentiment or aggressive monetary tightening, gold will likely remain firm, potentially heading towards Rs 1,05,000 in the medium term. Echoing a similar sentiment, Manav Modi, Senior Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services , discussed gold's performance in 2025, noting that the yellow metal has surged more than 30% since the beginning of the year, but has also faced significant swings. Modi attributed the volatility to factors such as President Trump's tariff updates, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over global growth. He explained that while tariffs between the US and China were initially introduced and later reduced, the overall uncertainty in the market, coupled with weak economic data points from the US, continued to support gold prices. From a longer-term perspective, Modi sees strong support for gold around Rs 88,000-90,000 per 10 grams, suggesting that investors can maintain a "buy on dips" stance. He projected gold prices could reach Rs 1,00,000-Rs 1,06,000 over the next 12-15 months, provided that key support levels hold. While near-term corrections may be imminent, gold's long-term appeal remains intact. Analysts agree that geopolitical risks, central bank actions, and broader economic uncertainties continue to favor gold as a safe-haven asset. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
