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The Guardian
14 hours ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Small business owners aren't jumping for joy about the US economy – but they still aren't jumping ship
Small businesses in the US account for approximately half of the country's jobs, so when small businesses are doing well, it's likely that the economy is doing well. Media reports recently indicated that many small businesses are challenged by Trump's tariffs, ongoing inflation, labor shortages and higher financing costs. So how are small businesses doing so far in 2025? Not great. But not that bad either. In just the past two months, there have been no less than seven comprehensive surveys conducted by well-known companies and brands that altogether surveyed or drew from their internal data of tens – even hundreds – of thousands of small businesses. And they give a pretty good idea of how they're doing. Wealth management firm Principal Financial's Well-Being Index from June found that 56% of the companies they surveyed reported business growth and 90% of employers have either maintained or grown their workforce over the past year, with 49% increasing wages in just the past three months. However, optimism remains tempered by a weakening outlook on future economic growth and many have reported 'significant declines' in the financial health of their business, their local economy and the US economy, 'eroding the sense of optimism expressed in years past'. According to a survey by accounting giant EY, 95% of those polled were 'confident in business growth' over the next year. Additionally, 73% of entrepreneurs reported experiencing revenue growth this year compared with last year, with 29% reporting growth of 20% or higher. However, 43% said that current economic conditions are hurting them, but many still plan to pursue funding and strategic transactions, with investment in AI and M&A considerations leading the list. Software provider Intuit's QuickBooks Small Business Index draws on actual information from its customers, derived from anonymized employment and payroll data. The company found that job growth among small businesses – the great majority of their customer base – was stable with employment increasing in seven of the 12 sectors tracked. That's good, but unfortunately the study also found that average real monthly revenue for small businesses with one to nine employees decreased about 0.06% from the month before. Like Intuit, HR services giant Paychex said in its Small Business Employment Watch reports that job growth derived from its 350,000-plus customer database in May 'stayed flat' month over month and hourly earnings growth decreased to a four-year low. 'Caution persists' in both wage and hiring trends. The closely watched Small Business Optimism Index published monthly by the National Federation of Small Businesses reported a tick up in small business optimism in May to a level above its 51-year average. The survey found that the top concerns of the federation's members shifted from inflation to taxation and that although sales expectations and hiring plans are 'improving', uncertainty remains. Finally, in its June Small Business Perspective report, US Bank said that 96% of the small business owners it surveyed reported their business as currently successful and 88% saw growth in the past year. Two-thirds said the country's economy is 'moving in the right direction', with only 18% saying it's going in the wrong direction. Interestingly, this sentiment was even stronger among younger business leaders (gen Z and millennial), with 74% saying it was moving in the right direction, versus 52% of leaders from older generations (gen X and boomer). Although four out of five owners felt at least 'somewhat stressed' about tariffs, those leaders were 'slightly more likely to anticipate a positive rather than negative impact'. My take? Despite all the headwinds and uncertainties such as tariffs, federal and local policies, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, labor shortages and other challenges – small businesses, so far, in 2025 remain optimistic about the future and are maintaining employment levels mostly reporting average financial results. Few are jumping for joy. But it seems that fewer are jumping off the ship.
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why Is CNO (CNO) Up 0.5% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for CNO Financial (CNO). Shares have added about 0.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500. Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CNO due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers. It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month. At this time, CNO has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy. Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in. Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, CNO has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months. CNO belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Multi line industry. Another stock from the same industry, Principal Financial (PFG), has gained 5.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2025. Principal Financial reported revenues of $4.01 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.5%. EPS of $1.81 for the same period compares with $1.65 a year ago. For the current quarter, Principal Financial is expected to post earnings of $2.02 per share, indicating a change of +23.9% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.2% over the last 30 days. Principal Financial has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO) : Free Stock Analysis Report Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Yahoo
23-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Principal Financial (PFG) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
Principal Financial (PFG) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price. The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on April 24. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise. This financial services company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.86 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +12.7%. Revenues are expected to be $3.97 billion, up 4.5% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 2.44% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts. Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only. A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP. Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell). For Principal Financial, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -0.33%. On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3. So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Principal Financial will beat the consensus EPS estimate. While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number. For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Principal Financial would post earnings of $1.95 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.94, delivering a surprise of -0.51%. The company has not been able to beat consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters. An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss. That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Principal Financial doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release. Another stock from the Zacks Insurance - Multi line industry, Goosehead Insurance (GSHD), is soon expected to post earnings of $0.23 per share for the quarter ended March 2025. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -17.9%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $78.25 million, up 21.4% from the year-ago quarter. Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for Goosehead has been revised 5.8% down to the current level. Nevertheless, the company now has an Earnings ESP of 4.35%, reflecting a higher Most Accurate Estimate. When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP indicates that Goosehead will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) : Free Stock Analysis Report Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Sign in to access your portfolio
