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Business Standard
10-06-2025
- Automotive
- Business Standard
Auto sector faces slowdown due to rare earth magnet shortage: Crisil
India's automotive industry is staring at potential slowdown due to shortage of rare earth magnets, a critical component for electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids, ratings agency CRISIL has said. China's recently imposed export restrictions and prolonged shipment delays are disrupting the supply chain, which could impact production and the sector's growth trajectory. Rare earth magnets are integral to the permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) utilised in EVs, valued for their high torque, energy efficiency, and compact design. Hybrids also rely on these magnets for efficient propulsion. In internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, their use is primarily confined to electric power steering and other motorised systems. Anuj Sethi, Senior Director at CRISIL Ratings, said, 'The supply squeeze coincides with the auto sector's preparations for aggressive EV rollouts. Over a dozen new electric models are scheduled for launch, primarily on PMSM platforms.' He added, 'While most automakers currently possess 4-6 weeks of inventory, sustained delays could begin to affect vehicle production, with EV models potentially facing deferrals or rescheduling from July 2025. A broader impact on two-wheelers and ICE passenger vehicles may occur if supply bottlenecks persist for an extended period.' The Chinese wall In April 2025, China, the primary global exporter of rare earth magnets, implemented new export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and finished magnets. This revised framework necessitates export licenses, demanding detailed end-use disclosures and client declarations, including assurances that the products will not be used for defence or re-exported to the US. The clearance process now takes a minimum of 45 days, causing significant approval delays and exacerbating global supply chain tightness. India, which imported over 80 per cent of its approximately 540 tonnes of magnets from China in the last financial year, is experiencing the effects. By the end of May 2025, while the Indian government endorsed nearly 30 import requests from domestic companies, Chinese authorities had not approved any, resulting in no shipments reaching India. Poonam Upadhyay, director at CRISIL Ratings, said, 'The shortage of rare earth magnets is compelling automakers to re-evaluate supply-chain strategies. Despite contributing less than 5 per cent of a vehicle's cost, these magnets are essential for EV motors and electric steering systems.' She noted that automakers are engaging with alternative suppliers in countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Australia, and the US, while also optimising existing inventories. 'With applications across EVs and ICE vehicles, a prolonged supply squeeze could disrupt production of PVs and 2Ws, making this low-cost component a potential high-impact bottleneck for the sector. In a constrained supply scenario, magnets may also be diverted to ICE models, which require fewer units, potentially impacting EV growth,' Upadhyay explained. During the pandemic, rare earth magnet supplies remained stable, unlike semiconductors. This led to a reliance on just-in-time inventory without the establishment of strategic buffers. Unlike semiconductors, which have a globally diversified supply base, over 90 per cent of rare earth magnet processing is concentrated in China, offering limited short-term alternatives. The Indian remedy In response to this risk, the Indian government and automakers are taking action on two fronts. Short-term efforts focus on building strategic inventories, securing alternative suppliers, and accelerating domestic assembly under Production Linked Incentive schemes. Long-term objectives involve fast-tracking rare earth exploration, establishing local production capacity, and investing in recycling infrastructure to reduce import dependency. Diversification of supply sources is an ongoing effort, aligning with policy initiatives. The pace of China's export approvals for these magnets remains an immediate concern for automotive players. Domestic passenger vehicle volumes are projected to increase by 2-4 per cent in the financial year 2026, with electric PVs potentially rising by 35-40 per cent from a low base. Electric two-wheelers could see approximately 27 per cent growth, exceeding the overall 2W segment's 8-10 per cent growth. However, continued supply tightness could temper this momentum, particularly in the EV segment.
New Indian Express
10-06-2025
- Automotive
- New Indian Express
Rare earth magnet shortage may slow India's auto sector: Crisil
India imported over 80% of its ~540 tonnes of rare earth magnets from China last fiscal year. As of late May, 30 Indian import requests had been cleared by Indian authorities but none approved by China—no shipments have arrived. 'The shortage comes as India gears up for major EV launches. With limited inventory, delays beyond a month could disrupt production from July 2025, especially EV models. If prolonged, it may also impact ICE and two-wheeler (2W) production,' says Anuj Sethi, Senior Director at Crisil Ratings. In FY26, passenger vehicle (PV) volumes are expected to grow 2–4%, with electric PVs surging 35–40% from a low base. Electric 2Ws may grow about 27%, outpacing the broader 2W segment. But supply issues could slow this momentum. Unlike semiconductors—which have diversified supply chains—over 90% of rare earth magnet processing happens in China. During the pandemic, supplies were stable, so automakers didn't build strategic buffers. That's now changing. According to Poonam Upadhyay, Director at Crisil Ratings, despite a make up of less than 5% of vehicle cost, these magnets are critical. "Automakers are turning to suppliers in Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Australia, and the US, while managing existing stock. If shortages persist, magnets may be redirected to ICE models, affecting EV rollout,' she added. In response, both government and automakers are working on short- and long-term solutions. These include building strategic inventories, securing alternate suppliers, expanding domestic assembly under incentive schemes, and investing in rare earth mining and recycling. However, the key factor to watch is how quickly China clears the export approvals.
Time of India
10-06-2025
- Automotive
- Time of India
EV launches may stall as China chokes magnet supply: Crisil sounds alarm for auto sector
New Delhi: India's auto industry could face disruptions in electric vehicle (EV) production if the current delays in rare earth magnet shipments from China persist, Crisil Ratings has said. According to the rating agency, nearly 30 import requests from Indian companies had been endorsed by the Indian government by the end of May 2025, but none have yet been approved by Chinese authorities, with no shipments arriving so far. Rare earth magnets, although accounting for less than 5 per cent of a vehicle's cost, are essential for permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) widely used in EVs and hybrids, as well as in components like electric power steering in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. In April 2025, China imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and finished magnets, requiring detailed end-use declarations and client confirmations, including that the materials would not be used for defence purposes or re-exported to the US. The revised rules have led to approval delays of at least 45 days, creating a backlog and tightening global supply chains. India sourced over 80 per cent of its ~540 tonne rare earth magnet imports from China in the last fiscal. Crisil Ratings flagged that a disruption lasting more than a month could impact EV launches and stall production schedules. 'The supply squeeze comes just as the auto sector is preparing for aggressive EV rollouts. Over a dozen new electric models are planned for launch, most built on PMSM platforms,' said Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, Crisil Ratings. According to Crisil, most automakers currently have 4-6 weeks of inventory. If the situation is not resolved, EV model launches could be deferred or rescheduled starting July 2025. While the immediate risk is to the EV segment, ICE passenger vehicles and two-wheelers could also be affected if the supply crunch extends. In FY26, domestic passenger vehicle volumes are expected to grow 2-4%, while electric PVs could rise 35-40 per cent on a low base. Electric two-wheelers may see ~27 per cent growth, compared with overall 2W growth of 8-10%. But sustained supply tightness may slow this momentum, particularly for EVs. 'Despite contributing less than 5 per cent of a vehicle's cost, these magnets are indispensable for EV motors and electric steering systems,' said Poonam Upadhyay, Director, Crisil Ratings. 'Automakers are actively engaging with alternative suppliers in Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Australia, and the US, while also optimising existing inventories.' The report added that during the pandemic, rare earth magnet supplies remained stable, unlike semiconductors, reinforcing reliance on just-in-time inventories. However, unlike semiconductors which have a diversified supply base, over 90 per cent of rare earth magnet processing is concentrated in China, with limited short-term alternatives. Crisil Ratings said that automakers and the government are addressing the risk through two approaches: building strategic inventories and sourcing from alternate suppliers in the short term; and reducing import dependence via exploration, domestic production, and recycling in the long term. The pace of China's export approvals remains the immediate monitorable, Crisil said, as the sector braces for possible disruption ahead of a key EV launch cycle.
Time of India
10-06-2025
- Automotive
- Time of India
China's export curbs on rare earth magnets threaten India's EV momentum: Crisil
India's automotive sector is staring at a critical supply-chain risk as rare earth magnet shipments from China remain stalled under the latter's tightened export norms, stated Crisil Ratings. Though low in cost, these magnets are indispensable to the functioning of electric vehicles (EVs), particularly those using permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs), known for their high torque and energy efficiency. If China's export restrictions persist beyond a month, industry stakeholders warn of potential delays in EV model launches, disruptions in production, and a broader impact on growth momentum across the passenger vehicle (PV) and two-wheeler (2W) segments,the report noted. China Tightens Control: Clearances Drag Amid New Export Licensing Norms In April 2025, China—accounting for over 90 per cent of global rare earth magnet processing—mandated export licences for seven rare earth elements and finished magnets. The new framework requires detailed end-use disclosures and customer declarations, including confirmation that these materials won't be used in defence or re-exported to the US. The clearance process now takes a minimum of 45 days, and delays are piling up. Though India approved nearly 30 import requests from domestic companies by end-May, none have received Chinese approvals yet, leaving shipments in limbo. EVs Most at Risk, But Impact Could Spread to ICE Segment Rare earth magnets are core to PMSMs used in EVs and hybrids. While internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles use them more sparingly—primarily in electric power steering—supply shortages could eventually affect ICE production too. 'Most OEMs currently have 4-6 weeks of inventory. If the situation continues beyond June, we could see EV launches pushed to later quarters,' said Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, Crisil Ratings. He cautioned that while the initial impact would be on EVs, a prolonged disruption could extend to 2Ws and ICE PVs. EV Growth Projections at Risk Amid Fragile Supply Chain India's auto industry is poised for strong growth in electric mobility in FY26. Electric PV volumes are projected to grow 35–40 per cent year-on-year, albeit on a low base, while electric 2Ws may grow ~27 per cent, well ahead of overall 2W growth at 8–10 per cent. However, these projections now appear vulnerable. 'The shortage of rare earth magnets is forcing automakers to reassess supply-chain strategies,' said Poonam Upadhyay, Director, Crisil Ratings. 'Despite contributing less than 5% of vehicle cost, these components are critical and irreplaceable for key systems.' Automakers Scramble to Diversify and Build Buffers To mitigate the crisis, OEMs are actively engaging with alternative suppliers in Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Australia, and the US. Companies are also trying to optimise existing inventories and in some cases, divert magnets towards ICE production—which require fewer units—further limiting availability for EVs. Industry experts note that, unlike semiconductors, rare earth magnet supplies remained relatively stable during the pandemic, reinforcing the just-in-time inventory approach. But the current bottleneck has exposed the fragility of this strategy. Government & Industry Move to Secure Supply The report notes that India is taking both short- and long-term steps to secure magnet availability. In the near term, the focus is on: -Building strategic stockpiles -Expanding sourcing from non-China regions -Boosting domestic assembly of magnet components under PLI schemes For the long haul, efforts are being made to fast-track rare earth mineral exploration, develop local processing capacity, and invest in recycling ecosystems to reduce dependence on imports. While the diversification push gains momentum, the pace of China's export approvals will remain the most immediate variable. However, the report cautions that any further delay could intensify disruptions in the automotive value chain, making these low-cost magnets a high-stakes factor for India's vehicle manufacturing sector.>
Time of India
21-05-2025
- Automotive
- Time of India
Automotive component sector likely to clock 7-9% revenue growth in FY26: Crisil
Domestic automotive component sector is expected to clock 7-9 per cent revenue growth this fiscal, mirroring last fiscal, driven by sustained demand momentum from two-wheelers and passenger vehicles segments especially utility vehicles, which account for nearly half of the overall revenue, ratings agency Crisil said on Wednesday. It also said that while a moderate uptick in commercial vehicles and tractors sales (around 17 per cent share) will provide an additional tailwind, the aftermarket segment (15 per cent share in revenue) is seen ticking along steadily at 5-7 per cent. However, weak demand for new vehicles in the US and Europe (around 60 per cent of India's exports), presents headwinds. "Demand from automotive OEMs, contributing two-thirds of total revenue, is expected to grow 8-9 per cent this fiscal, with value outpacing volume on rising safety, emission and electronic content, especially in PVs and 2Ws," said Poonam Upadhyay, Director at Crisil Ratings. The aftermarket segment will log a steady 6-7 per cent growth, supported by an ageing vehicle base, she said, adding export growth, however, will moderate to 7-8 per cent amid weak demand for internal combustion engine vehicles and a deceleration in electric vehicle adoption across the US and Europe. Live Events The US, while contributing just around 5 per cent to total revenue, commands a dominant 28 per cent share of export earnings and is the fastest-growing auto component market, said Crisil. The 25 per cent tariff planned by the US can hurt companies heavily reliant on this geography, as per the ratings agency. According to Crisil, operating margins are seen stable at 12-12.5 per cent, driven by growing share of high-margin components such as ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance System) modules, infotainment systems and advanced braking. A decline in input cost -- particularly of steel (45-50 per cent share in input costs), aluminium (15-20 per cent), and plastics (10-12 per cent) -- used for structural rigidity, reducing vehicle weight and for interiors will support profitability. But pressure from new tariffs can dent the margins of companies exporting largely to the US, it stated. As per Crisil, continuing high capital spend will be funded primarily by internal accruals. This, along with tight control over working capital, will ensure low dependence on external borrowing, keeping credit profiles stable. "The share of high-margin, technology-intensive components now account for around 27 per cent of the segment's revenue, up from around 18 per cent before Covid-19, driven by premiumisation, and stricter emission norms," said Anil More, Associate Director, Crisil Ratings. This structural shift, along with easing input costs, will help players sustain operating margins at 12-12.5 per cent this fiscal despite the global headwinds. However, companies with high export dependence on the US market may see margins compress 125-150 basis points amid limited ability to pass on tariffs, according to him. The rating agency also said that the sector's credit outlook for this fiscal is stable owing to strong cash flows and minimal debt addition, despite sustained capex of around Rs 22,000 crore for scaling EV capabilities, automation and precision manufacturing - in tune with model launches that increasingly feature EVs. However, with EVs forming just around 4 per cent of PV volume, their revenue contribution remains marginal, keeping returns from this category of vehicles muted in the near term, Crisil said. Economic Times WhatsApp channel )
