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CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Options traders are betting Nike makes a big move after earnings next week
Over the past decade, Nike (NKE) has experienced an average earnings-related stock price movement of approximately 6% in the week following its quarterly earnings release. The at-the-money June 27th $60 strike straddle is approximately $5.70 as I write this, or 9.5% of the current stock price. Why is the options market anticipating so much earnings-related volatility? Based on alternative data, sales trends, and inventory metrics, Nike faces a challenging near-term outlook as it approaches its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report next week on June 26. The company is navigating a challenging consumer environment, intense competition, and macroeconomic headwinds, including, potentially, tariffs. "New" (he was actually a multi-decade executive at Nike, who recently returned) CEO Elliott Hill returned to Nike to execute a turnaround strategy ("Win Now") focused on innovation, wholesale partnerships, and brand repositioning. Alternative data metrics are sending conflicting signals. For example, Bloomberg Second Measure Observed Sales data declined 14.95% year-over-year (YoY) through May 31st, significantly worse than the industry average of a 7.9% decline. 's US Foot Traffic estimated visits rose 4.3% versus an industry average decline of 1.1%. tracks the locations of millions of mobile devices against known geographic locations, including retail stores. Anecdotally, Placer's results have tracked more closely than Bloomberg's to reported results in the handful of discretionary names I've been tracking recently. Similarweb's global web traffic visits declined 20.8%, compared to a 0.5% decline for the industry overall. This is a metric I have only recently started tracking, and I have no prior experience with it. Nike's recent quarters show persistent revenue declines, with Q3 2025 (ended February 28, 2025) reporting: Revenue : $11.3 billion, down 9% YoY (chart below). Nike Direct : $4.7 billion, down 12% YoY, driven by a 15% drop in digital sales and a 2% dip in store sales. Wholesale : $6.2 billion, down 7% YoY, with weakness in China and Europe offsetting U.S. growth. Regional Performance : China sales declined 17% year-over-year, a significant drag due to economic slowdown and concerns about job security. Europe also weakened, while North America showed pockets of strength in running and training categories. For Q4, Nike guided to a "mid-teens" revenue decline (likely 13–15%), worse than analyst expectations of an 11.4% drop to $11.07 billion. Key drivers include: Weak Holiday Season : Q3 saw strong December demand but "double-digit declines" in January and February, suggesting Q4 (March–May) started poorly. Category Performance : Running and training categories experienced growth in Q3, driven by new launches (e.g., Pegasus Premium, Vomero 18). However, this was offset by double-digit declines in Sportswear and Jordan Brand, particularly in classic footwear such as the Air Force 1 and Dunk. Competition : Rivals like On Running and Hoka (owned by Deckers) are gaining market share with innovative, trendier products, eroding Nike's dominance in the running category. Summary Prognosis : Nike's Q4 is expected to be challenging, with revenues likely falling 13%–15% year-over-year (YoY) to $10.6–10.8 billion, driven by weak consumer spending, China's slowdown, and declines in digital sales. Early progress under CEO Elliott Hill (new products, wholesale ties) may not offset macro headwinds. Gross Margins : Expect a 400–500 basis point drop to 37%–38%, hit by markdowns to clear $7.5–8 billion in inventory, tariff costs (China/Mexico imports), and higher product costs. Long-term margin recovery depends on full-price DTC and innovation. (1 basis point equals 0.01%) Revenue Outlook : Decline, not stagnation, is the base case, with a mid-teens drop guided. Upside hinges on new product traction and wholesale gains. Valuation : Fair value of $80–$85 (P/E 38–40x, EV/EBITDA 22x), supported by comps (Adidas, Lululemon). Upside to $90–$100 if turnaround accelerates; downside to $50–$60 if challenges persist. Trade A diagonal strangle swap seeks to capitalize on elevated near-term options prices with defined risk. The idea here is that a lot of bad news is already baked into this cake. The following trade can accommodate a post-earnings move of more than 12.5% in either direction and likely still see profits without risking substantial losses in the event the stock is little changed post-earnings. Buy NKE Oct. 17 $50 put Buy NKE Oct 17 $70 call Sell NKE July 18 $67.50 call Sell NKE July 18 $52.50 put DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. 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Miami Herald
13-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Target struggles to reverse alarming customer trend amid boycotts
It is no secret that Target (TGT) has faced challenges ever since it decided to scale back a major yearslong commitment it made to its employees and customers. In January, the retail giant revealed that it will discontinue several of its diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, including advancing the careers of Black employees, implementing anti-racism training for staff members, promoting Black-owned businesses, and sourcing products from Black suppliers. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter It also withdrew its participation in the Human Rights Campaign survey, which tracks LGBTQ+ corporate policies and practices, and discontinued its three-year DEI goals. Related: Target faces another massive boycott from customers The move from Target sparked outrage from consumers, and soon after, boycotts erupted. During the first quarter of 2025, the number of customers visiting Target stores per location declined by 4.8% year-over-year, according to recent data from Target also revealed in its latest earnings report that while its comparable digital sales increased by 4.7% year-over-year, its comparable store sales decreased by 3.8% during the quarter. During an earnings call last month, Target CEO Brian Cornell said that the company is "not satisfied" with its recent performance and emphasized that it is operating in an "exceptionally challenging environment" that has harmed foot traffic and sales. "We faced several additional headwinds this quarter, including five consecutive months of declining consumer confidence, uncertainty regarding the impact of potential tariffs, and the reaction to the updates we shared on Belonging in January," said Cornell during the call. Image source: Universal Images Group via Getty Images Now, for the fourth consecutive month this year, Target's foot traffic in its store declined by 1.6% year-over-year in May, according to new data shared with TheStreet. This comes after its foot traffic shrank by 9% in February, 6.5% in March, and 3.3% in April. Target lagged behind competitors such as Walmart, Costco, and Best Buy, which all experienced increased traffic in their stores in May. This decline comes during a time when Target's reputational scores also recently took a hit, according to data from Reputation analytics firm Caliber, which Retail Brew obtained. Related: Target CEO admits a major mistake amid boycotts from customers Between January and May, Target's Integrity Score, which is based on the proportion of consumers Caliber surveyed agree with the statement "Target behaves responsibly," fell from 65 to 58. The retail giant's Leadership Score, based on the degree to which customers agreed with the statement "Target demonstrates leadership," also declined from 65 to 58. The number of consumers who agreed with the statement that they "would recommend Target to others, if given the chance" also caused Target's Recommendation Rate to dip by 24.5% between January and May. "This is concerning," Caliber CEO Shahar Silbershatz told Retail Brew. "There is a negative trend here. This is going to continue to snowball, and it's a problem." Target's CEO has recently been laser-focused on winning back customers. During the earnings call last month, Cornell said that Target will open a new Enterprise Acceleration Office, which will focus on simplifying the company's operations. In addition, Target will make organizational changes to "bring even more clarity and speed" to its business practices and strategy advancement. More Retail: Costco quietly plans to offer a convenient service for customersT-Mobile pulls the plug on generous offer, angering customersKellogg sounds alarm on unexpected shift in customer behavior He also said that Target has been working "tirelessly" to prevent potential tariff-related price increases in its stores, which threaten to scare away frugal customers. "As a company that aims to deliver great products and outstanding value, we're focused on supporting American families as they manage their budgets," said Cornell. "We have many levers to use in mitigating the impact of tariffs, and price is the very last resort." Some of those levers include negotiating with vendor partners, reevaluating assortment decisions, changing country of production, and adjusting order timing. Related: Target CEO sounds alarm on customer behavior The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
New York Post
11-06-2025
- Business
- New York Post
Popular fast-food chain explores potential $1.5B sale as demand for fried chicken booms: report
Popular Southern-based fast-food chain Bojangles is exploring a potential sale of its business as demand for fried chicken heats up, according to a report on Wednesday. The company could fetch more than $1.5 billion – three times what it sold for in a 2019 buyout, sources familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal. The chain — known for its chicken, biscuits and cavity-inducing sweet tea — would likely draw interest from restaurant operators and private-equity investors, though it could still decide against the sale, sources added. 3 Fried-chicken chain Bojangles is reportedly exploring a potential sale of its business. Alamy Stock Photo Bojangles did not immediately respond to The Post's request for comment. Private-equity firms Durational Capital Management and TJC took Bojangles private in an all-cash deal in 2019 that valued the company at more than $590 million. Bojangles, founded in Charlotte, NC, in 1977, boasts about 800 locations mostly across the southern US, with more than 100 restaurants in Georgia alone, though it has started to expand to the northeast. It opened its first New Jersey location in April and its second Pennsylvania restaurant in 2022. The company is likely looking to take advantage of an advantageous market as fried chicken restaurants continue to outperform competitors. That's largely thanks to chicken's versatility, according to R.J. Hottovy, head of analytical research at 'This adaptability has enabled a number of brands to stand out by offering a wide range of customizable spice levels, sauces and sides that appeal to a broader customer base,' Hottovy told The Post. 3 A Bojangles meal including fried chicken, biscuits, sweet tea and sides. Total sales at US chain restaurants grew 3% last year, according to Technomic. Sales at burger chains rose just 1% – while chicken restaurants largely outperformed with 9% growth. Sales at fast-casual chicken chains like Raising Cane's and Wingstop increased 24% compared to the year before, according to Technomic. Visits to restaurants like Raising Cane's, Dave's Hot Chicken, Super Chix and Huey Magoo's Chicken Tenders far outpaced overall visits to fast-casual chains in the first quarter of 2025, according to data. The growth was driven in part by expansions as hot demand for chicken allowed restaurants to open new locations. 3 Dave's Hot Chicken recently announced a sale to Roark Capital that values the company at $1 billion. AP Dave's Hot Chicken – which recently clinched a $1 billion deal to sell to Subway owner Roark Capital – saw the most significant year-over-year visit growth of 60% in the first quarter, according to That followed visit growth of 67.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Other fast-food chains have tried to hop on the chicken trend. McDonald's added its McCrispy Strips to the permanent menu this spring, while Taco Bell re-launched its chicken nuggets. Several other restaurant mergers and acquisitions have been reached over the past few months. Blackstone took a majority stake in Jersey Mike's Subs that valued the company at $8 billion, while Sycamore Partners bought acai bowl chain Playa Bowls. The terms of the Playa Bowls deal have not been announced.
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Black church leader calls for Dollar General digital protest, Target fast successful
The Georgia pastor who led a 40-day boycott of Target is turning his attention to another major retailer: Dollar General. Jamal-Harrison Bryant, senior pastor of New Birth Missionary Baptist Church in Stonecrest, Georgia, announced a new electronic protest against the discount chain, saying it has abandoned DEI policies. Bryant says Dollar General benefits from the spending power of Black and low-income shoppers but fails to reinvest in the communities it serves. He's calling on the company to recommit to fair hiring practices, supplier diversity and community investment. The protest begins immediately. Here's what you need to know about the electronic protest against Dollar General. While it's not a boycott, Bryant urges supporters to flood Dollar General with emails, phone calls and social media posts to push for change. There is no official end date, as Bryant wants this to be a continuous effort until change is made. Bryant says that too many rural shoppers rely on the discount chain for their fresh produce and other grocer needs. According to Alabama has 975 Dollar General stores, the eighth-highest number in the country. Montgomery: 18 locations Birmingham: 7 locations Tuscaloosa: 12 locations Gadsden: 7 locations Mobile: 17 locations President Donald Trump's push to eliminate federal DEI programs has led major retailers and corporations to scale back their diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts. In response, consumers and activists have staged multiple economic blackouts since February. The "Target Fast," which was supposed to last until the end of Lent, has now been extended to an indefinite blackout. Since February, other separate economic blackouts have taken place, with The People's Union targeting Walmart, Nestle, and General Mills. Data collected shows that the blackout against Target has been successful. According to a USA Today report, on Jan. 31, the day before the boycott began, shares closed at $137.91. By April 8, they had dropped nearly 36% to $88.76. Foot traffic has also dipped. According to data from which tracks in-store visits using millions of mobile devices, visits were down in the weeks following the removal of DEI. In Alabama, visits were down over 2% in April. On April 17, Target CEO Brian Cornell requested a meeting with Bryant and Rev. Al Sharpton. Cornell said Target plans to renew its $2 billion commitment to support Black-owned brands and businesses. Cornell says he intends to meet the goal by July 31, but no public announcement has been made, and says it expects to reach the goal by the end of the year. Contributing: Betty Lin-Fisher Jennifer Lindahl is a Breaking and Trending Reporter for the Deep South Connect Team for Gannett/USA Today. Connect with her on X @jenn_lindahl and email at jlindahl@ This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Dollar General Alabama protest now: Pastor demands change in hiring, equity
New York Post
30-05-2025
- Business
- New York Post
NYC fast-casual lunch spots offer refuge from the 'sad salad'
These take the 'mid' out of Midtown. With NYC workers flocking back to the office in record numbers, working stiffs are seeking quick and tasty lunch options without paying through the nose. More often than not, they end up with the ubiquitous 'sad' salad, an expensive amalgam of cold rabbit foods crunched catatonically at one's desk while one scrolls social media. Hawked at such hotspots like Sweetgreen and Chopt, these soulless roughage bowls have inundated Midtown, offering little sustenance for the ever-growing throngs of desk jockeys in NYC, where post-pandemic visits to office buildings in April were just 5.5% below 2019 levels — a national record, according to the platform. 12 A mixed bowl with purple rice, soy eggs, kimchi, steak and more at SOPO, the hot new fast-casual Korean concept in Midtown. Stefano Giovannini '[It's] hard to find food that actually tastes good [and] that's not just rushed,' Sade Quianes, who works for a streaming company in the city, told The Post. The '$20 salad' was notably lampooned on TikTok by singer 'Awkward' Marina Sneider, who crooned in her viral ditty, 'it isn't even good and you're not even wealthy, but you need all your coworkers to think you're super healthy.' Thankfully, there is a growing fraternity of Midtown fast-casual restaurants that provide convenience without sacrificing flavor — and they're increasingly eating 'sad' salads for lunch. As a service to hangry workers, here are five of the best, because Gotham deserves a better class of midday meal. Seoul food at SOPO SOPO achieves the difficult task of condensing Korean staples like beef bulgogi and crispy scallion dumplings into one convenient takeout dish. Opened with the intent of bringing 'Michelin-quality Korean food to Midtown,' SOPO (whose name means 'Parcel' in Korean) is helmed by co-founder Tae Kim and Chef Dennis Hong, an alum of Michelin-starred Le Bernadin. 'We wanted to do a well-executed version that's very delicious, but it's also hassle-free,' Kim told The Post. He was inspired in part by his years working at a Tribeca bank where he'd have to scrounge up edible eats off Seamless on a $25 stipend. 12 'You can come here and get authentic Korean food and still very affordable,' gushed SOPO customer Sade Quianes. Stefano Giovannini 12 'I want a variation in the texture and flavor of the different things rather than having a lot of the same,' said SOPO co-founder Tae Kim while describing how he planned to distinguish himself from the typical fast-casual spot. Stefano Giovannini To order, customers select their bases ranging from salad to Korean purple rice (a mix of black and white rice), proteins such as steak or chicken, garnishes like crispy seaweed and sides including kimchi and soy-dipped eggs. These can be topped with a palette of sauces ranging from a Korean chili paste to one with perilla leaves, tarragon and coconut yogurt. Total price for a Seoul Steak Signature Plate: $16.48 'You can come here and get authentic Korean food and still very affordable,' gushed Quianes while toting a dish of dumplings and rice, which is cooked on-site in olive oil and giant sheets of Korean kelp for maximum umami. 12 SOPO co-founder Tae Kim said the goal was to allow customers to build their own bowls but ensure that every possible 'permutation' makes sense culinarily. Stefano Giovannini One difference is that SOPO doesn't 'mix' anything together to avoid discordant flavor combos. 'It's intended that everything is had separately as its own gourmet dish, because I feel like that's the only way that every permutation really works,' said Kim. Those who want their lunch in wrap form can opt for the kimbap, Korean 'sushi rolls' featuring chicken, beef, tofu and more fillings ($13.49) that are hand-rolled in front of customers and swaddled in foil to go — essentially SOPO's answer to Chipotle. SOPO, 463 7th Ave. between 35th and 36th Streets The Toast Of Mid-town 12 A sprawling Spicy Crab toast at Toastique. Stefano Giovannini 12 Toastique at 445 5th Ave near Bryant Park. Stefano Giovannini Healthful toast and juice bars have become almost cliche in NYC, but this newly-opened Washington D.C.-based transplant elevates the well-trodden concept with responsibly-sourced and unqiue accouterments. Some of the Gourmet Toasts, which are served atop bloodcurdlingly-crunchy bread as big as a battle cruiser, include Spicy Crab ($17) with lump crab, melted Swiss and Fontina cheese, tomatoes and more — like a jumbo crostini. Other toppings include avocado mash — the millennial catnip — prosciutto and even peanut butter and berry jam that's made in-house sans preservatives. Those looking for something lighter can opt for their fruit and granola bowls and wash it down with their all-natural smoothies or cold-pressed juices. Toastique, 445 5th Ave. near East 39th Street Dim sum and substance 12 Roast pork and duck over rice at Dim Sum Sam. Stefano Giovannini With its tiny breakfast baskets of chicken feet and lotus-wrapped sticky rice, dim sum might not seem like office-friendly fare. Thankfully, Dim Sum Sam makes the traditional Cantonese sit-down brunch to go and at any time of day — like China's version of Denny's all-day breakfast but high quality. They boast four locations across town in Fidi, Chinatown, the Flatiron district and a newly-opened branch in Times Square. Unlike many fast-casual options, Dim Sum Sam also notably hand-crafts each piece of dim sum fresh by hand. 12 Dim Sum Sam customers Miranda (left) and Andrea posing with a roast pork and duck rice bowl. Stefano Giovannini Along with bamboo basket standbys like chicken feet, shrimp dumplings and Portuguese egg tarts, the dim sum depot also hawks portable bowls. These include BBQ roast pork over rice ($11.95), shrimp and pork wonton soup ($8.95) and even a speedball of roast duck and pork over rice ($13.95). 'If you can't find your Chinese aunt or mom in the morning, I know where they are,' quipped frugal foodie @ in a video review of Dim Sum Sam. Dim Sum Sam, 240 W 40th Street between 7th and 8th Avenues Midtown Eastern 12 A Chicken Shawarma bowl at NAYA, which condenses vibrant and diverse Lebanese cuisine into convenient to-go bowls. Stefano Giovannini This Lebanese juggernaut offers the same choose-your-own-adventure format as its 'sad' salad counterparts, but with vibrant toppings like beef shawarma and lamb kebab over vermicelli rice that's adorned with yogurt, hummus and paired with pita (for around $13.99) — they're not selling glorified airplane food here. Founder Hady Kfoury told The Post that NAYA distinguishes itself via quality components like tahini and pickles sourced from Lebanon and hummus that's soaked for 24 hours, boiled all day, blast chilled and whacked with tahini and lemon. 12 The line at NAYA near Bryant Park. Stefano Giovannini He also said that the chain makes food that's hard for the average cook to recreate. 'During the pandemic, everybody baked bread at home, everybody created salads,' Kfoury said. 'You're not able to replicate NAYA at home because of the ingredients.' Kfoury said he hopes to have 45 branches by the end of this year with the latest one opening near Rockefeller Center on June 11 if all goes well. NAYA, 9 W 42nd Street near Fifth Avenue Treasure of the Sierra Madras 12 A dosa without filling at Madras Dosa, a South Indian chain that originated in Boston. Stefano Giovannini 12 Customers Raj Srinivas Krishna Srinivas at Madras Dosa. Stefano Giovannini Also ideal for casual fry-day is this Boston transplant, which recently opened a new branch in Times Square and specializes in dosas, a parchment-thin South Indian savory rice and lentil crepe. They have around 30 customizable options, ranging from savory options like spicy potatoes ($16.33), Lays' Indian-flavored chips and lamb to unorthodox sweet versions such as strawberry jam and Nutella. Other notable lunchable fare includes chaats, fried dough topped with various herbs and chutneys, best washed down with a tangy, creamy mango lassi. Madras Dosa, 30 Rockefeller Center, Concourse Level
