Latest news with #PaulDonovan
Daily Mail
a day ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
Britain saw second-biggest household wealth decline among major economies last year, says UBS
Average real-term household wealth across Britain fell by 3.6 per cent last year, a global analysis by UBS suggests. A chart in UBS' latest Global Wealth Report indicates that Britain suffered the second highest decline in average real-term wealth of any major economy last year. According to Michel Frey, head of UK high net worth business in UBS' wealth management arm, average real-term household wealth in Britain slipped as cost of living pressures and higher interest rates outpaced most financial market or property price growth. This combination of forces, Frey told City AM, hampered some people's ability to retain or build wealth, particularly among high net worth individuals. Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, told This is Money: 'Most people in Britain enjoyed a significant increase in their real wealth levels in 2024 – median wealth grew over 5 per cent in real terms and wealth distribution became more equal. 'However a number of higher income households experienced slower wealth growth, and when adjusted for inflation the experience of this group pushed the average lower.' He continued: 'Higher income households tend to hold more equity than most UK households, and the underperformance of the UK equity market compared to European and US equities will have contributed to that. 'Countries where wealth inequality increased are more likely to have experienced higher average real wealth growth than the UK.' While real-term household wealth across Britain fell 3.6 per cent in 2024, median wealth rose by just over 5 per cent. Amid concerns over a growing exodus of wealthy individuals from Britain, Rachel Rachel Reeves is reportedly mulling a softening of non-dom inheritance tax rules. Aside from Britain, the likes of Turkey, Mexico, France, the UAE, mainland China and Russia also saw average real-term household wealth fall in 2024, according to UBS. In Turkey, where inflation topped 75 per cent at one point in 2024, average real-term household wealth fell 14 per cent last year, the findings showed. UBS said: 'Measured in USD, in real terms over half of the 56 markets in the sample not only didn't take part in the world's growth last year, but saw their average wealth per adult decline.' Global wealth grew 4.6 per cent in 2024 after a 4.2 per cent increase in 2023, continuing a consistent upward trend, UBS said. Private individuals' net worth rose 4.6 per cent worldwide, and by over 11 per cent in the Americas, driven by a stable US dollar and upbeat financial markets, the UBS report found. Data: A chart by UBS showing global average wealth and median wealth data Elsewhere in the research, UBS said more than 379,000 people became new US dollar millionaires in the US last year, equating to more than 1,000 per day. Mainland China saw over 386 new millionaires every day, equating to 141,000 in the course of 2024, equivalent to an increase of 2.3 per cent on the previous year. Switzerland continued to top the list for average wealth per adult on an individual market level, followed by the US, Hong Kong and Luxembourg. This week, data from the Office for National Statistics showed that inflation across Britain was 3.4 per cent in May, down from 3.5 per cent in June. ONS acting chief economist Richard Heys said on Wednesday: 'A variety of counteracting price movements meant inflation was little changed in May. 'Air fares fell this month, compared with a large rise at the same time last year, as the timing of Easter and school holidays affected pricing. Meanwhile, motor fuel costs also saw a drop.' He added: 'These were partially offset by rising food prices, particularly items such as chocolates and meat products. 'The cost of furniture and household goods, including fridge freezers and vacuum cleaners, also increased.' Britain's economy slowed sharply in April, reflecting shockwaves from Trump's announcement of wide-ranging tariffs and a one-off hit from the end of a tax break on property sales. Gross domestic output shrank by a larger-than-expected 0.3 per cent in April from March, representing the biggest monthly drop since October 2023 and following 0.2 per cent growth in March.
Al Etihad
2 days ago
- Business
- Al Etihad
Growth in UAE household wealth likely to continue despite regional conflict: UBS Chief Economist
19 June 2025 00:25 KHALED AL KHAWALDEH (ABU DHABI) The outlook for household wealth in the UAE remains positive despite ongoing regional tensions, according to Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. Speaking at the release of the UBS Global Wealth Report 2025, Donovan underscored that the impact of the regional conflict on the UAE's wealth trajectory is expected to be limited. "The conflict is obviously a human tragedy. We are seeing a great deal of suffering as it unfolds," Donovan told Aletihad on Wednesday. "However, it is primarily a localised conflict, and at a global level, the economic and financial market implications to date have been very muted. I think that is likely to continue."Donovan emphasised that while geopolitical tensions can cause short-term volatility in asset prices, they are unlikely to derail the UAE's medium-term wealth creation, which, according to UBS data, has been substantial in the last decade. "I would not be expecting a great deal of disruption to the local economies in the UAE if we see an extended period of conflict," he noted. "There may be some implications for, say, the tourism industry, but it's unlikely to lead to a dramatic shift in terms of the medium-term direction of the economy and the wealth creation that is going on there."One factor Donovan pointed out is the limited movement in oil prices despite the conflict. He said the sector had proven to be resilient and believed the UAE would continue to benefit economically under the current trajectory of the conflict. "The movement in the oil price has been a positive movement, but a fairly limited movement," he said. "We're not seeing significant disruption at the moment. The expectation is that there will not be any threats over the Straits of Hormuz. In that situation, again, I don't see this as having a significant medium-term impact," he UBS Global Wealth Report 2025, released on Wednesday, highlights strong underlying fundamentals in the UAE's wealth landscape. According to the report, the UAE has seen significant growth in median household wealth since 2020, with median wealth per adult rising by more than 23% after adjusting for inflation. However, average wealth per adult grew more modestly at just 2.35% over the same period, suggesting a more polarised distribution of wealth gains compared to neighbouring Saudi Arabia and other economies. The report shows that about 62% of the UAE's gross wealth is held in financial assets, while non-financial assets such as property account for roughly 48%. Debt levels remain modest, at around 9% of gross number of dollar millionaires in the UAE also continued to rise in 2024, reaching over 240,000 individuals. The country added 13,000 in the last year, the second largest rate of growth, just behind Türkiye. Globally, the report found that household wealth rose again in 2024, following a buoyant 2023, although growth was uneven across regions. North America and China remain dominant, jointly accounting for over half of the total personal wealth in the UBS study's 56-country sample. The report also noted the rise of the so-called EMILLIs, everyday millionaires with between $1 million and $5 million in assets, a group that has quadrupled globally since 2000, largely on the back of inflated real estate values. Looking ahead, UBS expects the global millionaire population to increase by nearly 9% by 2029, adding over five million new millionaires. The UAE is poised to contribute to this growth, fuelled by its economic diversification efforts and prudent wealth management practices.
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Every 30th adult now a millionare: UAE adds 13,000 dollar millionaires in 2024
In 2024, the UAE gained 13,000 millionaires, bringing the total to 240,000 with $785 billion in wealth/ Image: X The United Arab Emirates continued its meteoric rise on the global wealth map in 2024, adding approximately 13,000 new millionaires, according to the UBS Global Wealth Report 2025 , released Wednesday. This fresh wave of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) pushed the UAE's millionaire count to a striking 240,343, marking a 5.8% year-on-year increase. This growth makes the UAE the second-fastest-growing millionaire market, trailing only Türkiye, which experienced an 8.4% rise. A good number of these newly created millionaire base in the UAE came about from re-locations, as has been the case for four years now. Aaccording to the Swiss bank: 'In 2024, Turkey stands out from the crowd thanks to an 8.4% increase in its number of dollar millionaires over 2023, equivalent to a boost of roughly 7,000 people in a single year. The UAE (had) a rise of 5.8% in millionaire numbers, thanks to approximately 13,000 new entrants in this category.' To put it in human terms: According to Worldometers data, the UAE's population grew by 385,048 last year. While the total population is estimated at around 11 million, adults in their prime working years (25-54) number a substantial 7.28 million. With such a high concentration of wealth, effectively about one in every 30 adults or economically active individuals in the UAE is a millionaire. Where the Wealth Lives: UAE's $785 Billion in Private Hands The country's HNWIs now collectively control about $785 billion (Dh2.88 trillion) in wealth. Meanwhile, the average wealth per adult in the UAE currently stands at $147,663. According to the report: 62% of this wealth is held in financial assets, from equities and bonds to private investments. The remaining 48% resides in non-financial assets, primarily real estate and land, long considered pillars of wealth preservation in the Gulf. This concentration of wealth is clearly reflected in the UAE's property and investment markets. According to Knight Frank, a notable influx of high-net-worth individuals from Saudi Arabia, India, China, and the UK is driving larger, multi-million dollar deals, particularly in premium locations such as Jumeira Bay Island. Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a statement highlighted the broader implications of this capital accumulation: 'Wealth is not just an economic measure – it's a social and political force. As we navigate the fourth industrial revolution and rising public debt, the way wealth is distributed and transferred will shape opportunity, policy, and progress.' Generational Shifts: $19 Billion in Wealth Transfers Expected One particularly notable trend in the UAE is the coming wave of wealth transfers. UBS estimates that the country will see $19 billion (Dh70 billion) in intra- and inter-generational transfers. That figure represents 1.4% of the UAE's total private wealth. This includes wealth moving between: Spouses, such as from a widow or widower to their partner. Generations, especially from older family members to children or grandchildren. Globally, the report expects over $83 trillion to change hands in the next two to three decades, most significantly in the: United States: over $29 trillion Brazil: nearly $9 trillion Mainland China: more than $5 trillion Wealth Rankings: Where the UAE Stands Globally and Regionally Regionally, the UAE ranks second in the Middle East for millionaire population: Saudi Arabia: ~340,000 millionaires UAE: 240,343 Israel: 186,000 Globally, Switzerland maintained its position as the wealthiest nation by average adult wealth: Switzerland: $687,166 United States: $620,654 Hong Kong: $601,195 Luxembourg: $566,735 Australia: $516,640 By contrast, while the UAE's average per adult ($147,663) trails these top-tier economies, its pace of wealth creation—and wealth attraction, signals an upward trajectory. Inflow of Wealth: Why Millionaires Are Moving to the UAE Not all of the 13,000 new millionaires in the UAE were homegrown. According to Knight Frank , citing Henley & Partners data, the UAE attracted 7,200 millionaires from abroad in 2024, a 53% increase from the previous year. This surge in financial migration brings the total number of resident HNWIs to 130,500, as reported earlier. Industry experts suggest that favorable tax policies, political stability, and high-end infrastructure continue to make the UAE a magnet for mobile global wealth. A Global Picture: Wealth Growth Tilted to the Americas While the UAE experienced notable domestic gains, the global wealth landscape also saw overall expansion: Global private wealth rose by 4.6% in 2024, up from 4.2% in 2023. Most of the increase came from North America, where stable currencies and strong financial markets drove momentum. The Americas led with more than 11% of global wealth growth. In contrast, the Asia-Pacific and EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) regions saw sluggish growth: below 3% and 0.5%, respectively.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock markets are ignoring the war as they wait for the Fed
Israel's air war on Iran entered its fourth day and the price of oil went up again, but the markets appear to be shrugging off the conflict. S&P 500 futures inched up this morning following gains in Europe and Asia. Investors appear to be positioning for a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' event in front of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to leave rates where they are, so don't be surprised if you see a moderate amount of profit-taking if that decision is confirmed. The stock markets also seem to be unbothered by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East even though the VIX volatility index is sharply up. Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen put it best in a note to clients sent this morning: 'Geopolitics doesn't normally matter much for long-run market performance. This is a pretty consistent pattern, including over the last two years with the Middle East. For instance, there was a brief risk-off move in April 2024 after Iran's attack on Israel, but markets quickly recovered. Then in October 2024, further Iranian strikes led to an oil price spike, but when Israel's response was more limited than many anticipated, prices fell back again. This week's events have clearly been much bigger than 2024. But apart from commodities and Middle Eastern equities, the wider market impact has been limited. In fact, the MSCI World index closed just over -1% beneath its record on Thursday.' UBS's Paul Donovan concurred: 'The ongoing exchange of missile strikes between Iran and Israel this weekend has not had a major impact on financial markets. … Further market moves would be justified only if there were expectations of even more disruption to energy supplies or shipping lanes,' he said this morning. Goldman Sachs's Jan Hatzius and his team predict the Fed will remain on hold. Inflation and economic growth both appear to be moderate, so it's not clear whether the Fed needs to intervene by moving the interest-rate needle either way, they told clients. 'The FOMC will likely reiterate that it plans to remain on hold until it has further clarity and downplay its longer-term projections as highly contingent on a still very uncertain economic and policy outlook,' they wrote. Here's a snapshot of the action this morning prior to the opening bell in New York: The VIX fear index rose 14% today. U.S. crude oil rose 1.23% to $73.88 a barrel, after rising more than 7% last week. S&P 500 futures were up 0.51% this morning despite turmoil in the oil markets. The S&P 500 closed down 1.13% on Friday, at 5,976. Bitcoin is sitting above $107K. Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 1.26%. India's Nifty 50 rose 0.9%. China's Composite rose 0.35%. Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.35% in early trading. This story was originally featured on
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Breaking: U.S. Stock Futures Slide as Israel-Iran Ceasefire Hopes Collapse
June 17 - Stock index futures dipped Tuesday as hopes for a swift Israel-Iran ceasefire faded, according to a Tuesday press release. S&P 500 futures slipped about 0.7%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell nearly 6%, and Dow futures (INDU) declined roughly 0.8%. Yields edged lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield easing to about 4.45% and the 2-year yield near 3.96%. Investors had grown cautiously optimistic after media reports suggested Iran might consider talks if Israel paused its strikes. Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid noted that markets became more risk-on when a WSJ article hinted at resumed nuclear discussions, but subsequent refutations dampened that mood. Diplomats said Iran would only negotiate if Israel halted its campaign, though an Al Jazeera source later questioned those claims. The Israel Defense Forces announced it had targeted Iran's wartime chief of staff, adding to uncertainty. UBS strategist Paul Donovan said the fighting is within market expectations, and neither rising oil prices nor geopolitical risk has spurred a strong safe-haven bid for the dollar. Overnight, sentiment cooled further after reports that U.S. President Trump left the G7 early to convene the National Security Council, though he denied links to ceasefire talks. Looking ahead, May retail sales data and the Bank of Japan's policy stance may influence markets, while the upcoming FOMC decision looms. Small moves in futures reflect a market weighing geopolitical and economic signals. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
