Latest news with #ParasJasrai
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Experts warn fruit and vegetable prices may keep climbing as extreme weather takes its toll: 'Affected supplies'
India is seeing steep price increases on local produce due to destructive weather patterns, The Economic Times reported. According to a recent analysis by The Economic Times, vegetables contributed 43.7% to Indian food inflation in fiscal 2025. Their share in fiscal 2024 was only 30.8%. Fruits rose to an 8.3% share from 5.1%. Garlic, potatoes, onions, coconuts, and lemons saw the steepest price increases. Overall food inflation dipped only slightly to 7.3% from 7.5%. Experts agreed that wildly shifting climate patterns were the primary culprit for stubborn food prices. "Climate change affected supplies in FY25, especially for vegetables and fruits, due to erratic rainfall patterns," said Paras Jasrai, associate director at India Ratings and Research, per The Economic Times. These forces are being felt in the U.S. as well. Besides the economic costs of faltering agricultural industries, food insecurity poses a clear humanitarian threat, especially in densely populated countries such as India. As prices rise, families may be pushed to migrate to other countries with more stable food production. India is facing an earlier monsoon season, which should offer some relief as farm yields come back up. As an immediate response to increasing food prices, it's possible to make your food go further by keeping it fresh longer and by growing your own produce. Farmers can adapt with new resilience techniques, but the long-term solution is to reduce pollution, which traps heat in the atmosphere and exacerbates the droughts, floods, and storms hampering agriculture. On an individual basis, switching to a plant-based diet, upgrading to an electric vehicle, and installing a home heat pump can all make a difference. Collectively, communities can elect decision-makers who put the climate first so they can build out renewable energy infrastructure and hold industrial polluters accountable. What is the biggest reason you don't grow food at home? Not enough time Not enough space It seems too hard I have a garden already Click your choice to see results and speak your mind. Join our free newsletter for easy tips to save more and waste less, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.
Indian Express
12-06-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Fall in food prices pulls down May CPI inflation to 2.82%, lowest since Feb 2019
A fall in prices of fruits, pulses, and cereals helped lower India's headline retail inflation rate to a 75-month low of 2.82 per cent in May 2025, acording to data released on Thursday by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), possibly providing some more easing room to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). At 2.82 per cent, the latest inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was somewhat lower than economists' expectations of around 3 per cent. CPI inflation stood at 3.16 per cent in April 2025 and 4.80 per cent in May 2024. The last time retail inflation was lower was in February 2019, when it stood at 2.57 per cent. Per MoSPI data, food inflation as measured by the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) almost halved to a 43-month low of 0.99 per cent last month from 1.78 per cent in April 2025 as fruit prices declined by 2 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) while those of pulses were down 1.7 per cent. Cereals also helped to bring down the overall food inflation in May 2025, with prices down 0.6 per cent compared to the previous month. Prices of vegetables, meanwhile, inched up slightly last month from April 2025. However, in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms, retail prices of vegetables were down 13.7 per cent — the sharpest pace of decline since December 2022, according to Paras Jasrai, associate director and economist at India Ratings & Research. Proteins became more expensive on a sequential basis in May 2025. While the price of meat and fish was up 1.5 per cent m-o-m, egg prices rose 2.5 per cent and milk turned 0.7 per cent more expensive in May. Core inflation — which excludes items whose prices are volatile such as food and fuel and is seen as an indicator of underlying demand conditions — inched up to around 4.2 per cent, according to calculations done by The Indian Express. The steady rise in core inflation over the last year-and-a-half or so is suggestive of 'steady demand conditions' in the economy, said Jasrai of India Ratings. In terms of the regional break-up, urban inflation eased to 3.07 per cent in May 2025 from 3.36 per cent the previous month, while rural CPI inflation declined to 2.59 per cent from 2.92 per cent. Inflation in May 2025 was highest in Kerala at 6.46 per cent, while it was lowest in Telangana, at 0.55 per cent. According to Sujan Hajra, chief economist at Anand Rathi Group, the downward trend in CPI inflation is expected to continue through October 2025, with averaging for FY26 likely to undershoot the RBI's latest forecast of 3.7 per cent. ICRA Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar, expects retail inflation to decline further to around 2.5 per cent in June 2025 and average 3.5 per cent in FY26. 'Looking ahead, on a y-o-y (year-on-year) basis, as many as 17 of the 22 food items for which the daily data is released, recorded a lower y-o-y inflation in June 2025 (until June 10, 2025) vis-à-vis May 2025, barring most edible oils and tea,' Nayar said. 'Moreover, the GoI (Government of India) has reduced the import duty on edible oils effective end-May 2025, which would lead to a softening in prices going forward, thereby auguring well for the oils and fats inflation readings through the fiscal, which would also be suppressed by a high base.' Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge, said that while the India Meteorological Department's forecast of an above-normal monsoon reinforces the favourable outlook for food inflation, the spatial and temporal distribution of the rains will be critical. 'Despite the early onset, monsoon activity has slowed, although it remains early in the season, with potential for recovery in the coming weeks. Weather-related risks will need close monitoring,' Sinha added. While the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last week cut the policy repo rate by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points (bps) to 5.50 per cent, it also tightened the stance of its policy to 'neutral' from 'accommodative', arguing that 'monetary policy is left with very limited space to support growth'. However, economists see the space for more one rate cut from the MPC, although not at the committee's next meeting in August 2025. Jasrai of India Ratings, for instance, expects a status quo on interest rates in August 2025 considering inflation is heading for the RBI's forecast of 2.9 per cent for April-June 2025 and the monetary easing affected so far. 'We expect, at max one more 25 bps cut this fiscal, unless there are surprises from global development or growth declines sharply,' Jasrai said. On Tuesday, the World Bank lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3 per cent from its January 2025 prediction of 2.7 per cent citing 'heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty'. Growth in 2026 is expected to pick up only slightly to 2.4 per cent and further to 2.6 per cent in 2027. While a global recession is not expected, the World Bank's latest projections for the next two years, should they turn out as forecast, would mean average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s, it said. Siddharth Upasani is a Deputy Associate Editor with The Indian Express. He reports primarily on data and the economy, looking for trends and changes in the former which paint a picture of the latter. Before The Indian Express, he worked at Moneycontrol and financial newswire Informist (previously called Cogencis). Outside of work, sports, fantasy football, and graphic novels keep him busy. ... Read More
Economic Times
28-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
IIP growth slows to 8-month low in April over decline in mining output
Agencies Only 11 of 23 mfg sectors had higher on-year growth than overall output growth in April NEW DELHI: India's industrial production growth fell to an eight-month low of 2.7% in April, dragged down by a contraction in mining output, high base effect and moderation in electricity production, official data released on Wednesday showed. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had expanded 3.9% in the previous month and 5.2% in April 2024. Manufacturing grew 3.4% in the first month of 2025-26 on the back of a solid expansion in the automobile sector. While mining output contracted 0.2%, electricity generation increased a muted 1.1% year-on-year in April. Within the manufacturing sector, 16 out of the 23 industry groups recorded positive growth. "The slowdown, albeit mild, was broad-based driven by a weaker performance across all the three production sectors," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist, ICRA. Only 11 of the total 23 manufacturing sub-sectors had a higher on-year growth than overall output growth in April, illustrating the skewness in industrial growth, according to Paras Jasrai, economist at India Ratings and Research. The silver lining in the data was the consumer durables and capital goods sector. The 6.4% expansion in consumer durables was driven by a 10.5% growth in electronic goods ahead of the upcoming marriage season. The auto sector reported a solid 15.4% growth. However, consumer non-durables output declined 1.7%, highlighting the urban-rural divide."Going ahead, the domestic consumption landscape remains a key monitorable due to the prevailing unevenness in demand recovery... the continued improvement in the inflation scenario led by easing of food inflation is a key tailwind for the demand recovery," said Rajani Sinha, chief economist, CareEdge Ratings.A 20.3% increase in capital goods was supported by both electrical and non-electrical machinery. "It needs to be seen if this is maintained in the coming months as one is looking at investment to pick up," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda. Infrastructure and construction goods output increased 4% in April while primary goods saw a marginal contraction of 0.4 %."On the whole the performance is encouraging and it will be important that there is further pickup in coming months," Sabnavis expect the unseasonal rains to impact construction goods output and keep factory output growth under 2% on-year in May.
Time of India
28-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
IIP growth slows to 8-month low in April over decline in mining output
NEW DELHI: India's industrial production growth fell to an eight-month low of 2.7% in April, dragged down by a contraction in mining output, high base effect and moderation in electricity production, official data released on Wednesday showed. The Index of Industrial Production ( IIP ) had expanded 3.9% in the previous month and 5.2% in April 2024. Manufacturing grew 3.4% in the first month of 2025-26 on the back of a solid expansion in the automobile sector. While mining output contracted 0.2%, electricity generation increased a muted 1.1% year-on-year in April. Within the manufacturing sector , 16 out of the 23 industry groups recorded positive growth. "The slowdown, albeit mild, was broad-based driven by a weaker performance across all the three production sectors," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist, ICRA . Only 11 of the total 23 manufacturing sub-sectors had a higher on-year growth than overall output growth in April, illustrating the skewness in industrial growth, according to Paras Jasrai, economist at India Ratings and Research . Live Events The silver lining in the data was the consumer durables and capital goods sector. The 6.4% expansion in consumer durables was driven by a 10.5% growth in electronic goods ahead of the upcoming marriage season. The auto sector reported a solid 15.4% growth. However, consumer non-durables output declined 1.7%, highlighting the urban-rural divide. "Going ahead, the domestic consumption landscape remains a key monitorable due to the prevailing unevenness in demand recovery... the continued improvement in the inflation scenario led by easing of food inflation is a key tailwind for the demand recovery," said Rajani Sinha, chief economist, CareEdge Ratings. A 20.3% increase in capital goods was supported by both electrical and non-electrical machinery. "It needs to be seen if this is maintained in the coming months as one is looking at investment to pick up," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda . Infrastructure and construction goods output increased 4% in April while primary goods saw a marginal contraction of 0.4 %. "On the whole the performance is encouraging and it will be important that there is further pickup in coming months," Sabnavis said. Economists expect the unseasonal rains to impact construction goods output and keep factory output growth under 2% on-year in May.
The Hindu
26-05-2025
- Business
- The Hindu
Tamil Nadu's capital expenditure grew over 16% in fiscal 2025
Tamil Nadu's capital expenditure grew over 16% to ₹46,076.54 crore in fiscal 2025, when compared to ₹39,540.90 crore in fiscal 2024, according to the preliminary un-audited provisional figures from the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG). Capital expenditure (capex) goes towards creation of fixed assets, such as roads and bridges, irrigation structures, schools, hospitals, along with investments made in Public Sector Undertakings. It helps in improving economic activity and generating employment. The capital expenditure for fiscal 2025 is also in line with the projection made in the revised estimates. The overall Capital Expenditure in the Revised Estimates was projected at ₹46,766 crore, as compared to ₹47,681 crore in the initial Budget Estimates for 2024-25, as per the State Budget for 2025-2026. 'The 16% growth in fiscal 2025 indicates a sustained focus on capex by the State government. The capex growth achieved in fiscal 25 provisional is much better than the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.3% during fiscal 2018-2024,' Paras Jasrai, associate director, India Ratings & Research, said. He said this is a positive development. 'In fact, a better way to look at it is comparing the actual overall capex (including loans and advances) as a proportion of the budgeted numbers. A closer look at the data reveals that Tamil Nadu has met 95.2% of the budgeted target in fiscal 2025, which is much better than fiscal 2024 number of 86.2% and 95.4% in fiscal 2023, as well as the average of 88.1% during FY18-FY24,' Mr. Jasrai said. According to him, the State has also fared better in terms of quality of expenditure. The quality of expenditure can be gauged by capital outlay to total expenditure (COTE). The COTE stood at 12.2% in fiscal 2025 provisional numbers and has hit a three-year high (it was 12.6% in fiscal 2022), Mr. Jasrai said. The metric for fiscal 2025 provisional is also better than the average of 11.4% during fiscal 2018-fiscal 2024. For fiscal 2026, the State government has estimated capital expenditure of ₹57,231 crore, which is a growth of 22.38% from the revised estimates for fiscal 2025. The total capital outlay of the State, including Net Loans and Advances, is estimated at ₹65,328 crore in the Budget Estimates 2025-26. 'Capex remains a sustained focus for the government, which is quite favourable for the continuing the economic momentum in the state. The State has been actively focusing on fiscal consolidation as evident even in the FY26 budget,' Mr. Jasrai said.
