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Montreal Gazette
2 days ago
- Politics
- Montreal Gazette
Libman: Quebec Liberals gamble on Rodriguez. Will voters?
Did Quebec Liberals shoot themselves in the foot last weekend? Pablo Rodriguez, a former MP and minister under Justin Trudeau, narrowly won the leadership of the provincial party over pharmacist and former head of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec, Charles Milliard. The Liberals face an uphill challenge. To win next year's election, they must wrestle back the support of francophone voters who make up 80 per cent of the electorate. For the past several years, francophone support has been languishing at or below 10 per cent. The Liberals are largely the default party for non-francophones concentrated primarily in the Montreal area. Montreal Island and Laval, however, comprise only 33 of 125 ridings. As the Coalition Avenir Québec and Parti Québécois have shown, you can win elections without Montreal, but you can't win without the overwhelmingly francophone regions covering the rest of Quebec. Rodriguez came to Quebec as a refugee from Argentina at eight years old, not speaking French or English. He became involved politically in the provincial Liberal youth wing before jumping to federal politics. He is affable and a good organizer with political experience who knows how to say the right things. Is that the right recipe, though, to save the Liberals? According to polls, most voters crave change from the CAQ government, and with the Liberals in limbo, had been parking their votes with the PQ — despite a commitment by its leader to hold a sovereignty referendum most Quebecers don't want. Rodriguez will undoubtedly hammer away at the PQ's referendum pledge as adding more uncertainty in an uncertain world. And when asked how he will win over the regions, he duly responds that all Quebecers want good government. More than rhetoric, though, he will need to start showing some substance on major issues, particularly the economy, health care and education — areas of failure by the existing government. His campaign website has several broad commitments but is short on specifics. Rodriguez's challenge, however, may go beyond just that. In the history of Quebec, only one premier — French-born Henri-Gustave Joly de Lotbinière (1878-'79) — wasn't born in the province (though René Lévesque was born in a hospital in Campbellton, N.B., across the bay from his Quebec home in New Carlisle.) Electoral politics, like it or not, often includes an element of voting for someone with whom you identify — linguistically, culturally, ethnically. In Quebec's regions, where the population is much less diverse and typically more nationalistic, a native son could articulate immigration or economic policies, for example, without the message's focus being potentially blurred by their roots or nationality or mother-tongue. On language issues, Rodriguez has recently been criticizing the CAQ government's actions as divisive, saying he would modify Bill 96 by eliminating two irritants — the search and seizure provisions and six-month grace period for immigrants to receive government services in English. He also promises to reverse tuition hikes that penalize English universities, and he opposes the pre-emptive use of the notwithstanding clause. But as he inevitably faces pressure to solidify his pro-Quebec credentials or acknowledge 'the decline of French,' will the standard recoil reflex to throw anglophones under the bus kick in? He certainly didn't object to Bill 96 as Trudeau's Quebec Lieutenant, and he supported the Official Languages Act revision (C-13) that compromises minority-language protections for Quebec anglophones. Rodriguez beat other strong leadership candidates, but many party members may have supported him based on a Léger poll showing the Liberals under his direction had the best chance of rivalling the PQ. However, that poll may have been skewed by the name-recognition effect at the time. Any new leader, once chosen, inevitably grows in stature. Few Canadians knew Mark Carney a year ago. Rodriguez has positive attributes and a compelling life story. In choosing him, though, Liberals are challenging history — and gambling that Quebec voters are prepared to do the same.
National Post
4 days ago
- Politics
- National Post
André Pratte: Pablo Rodriguez has won over the Quebec Liberals. That was the easy part
Article content Rodriguez is a hard worker. He will need every ounce of energy he can muster; a tremendous amount of work is necessary to rebuild the QLP. Support for the party outside the region of Montreal is meagre. In many ridings, there are few party members left, no association and no money. Depending on the public opinion surveys in the next few months, finding first-rate candidates in all 125 ridings may not be an easy task. Article content The current political situation in Quebec does offer some hope for the provincial liberals. According to a Pallas poll conducted right after Rodriguez was elected, the PQ leads (as it has for months now) with 31 per cent of the vote, followed by the QLP at 26 per cent, its best score in five years. The party currently in government, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec, slides to third place, with only 15 per cent of voting intentions. With such numbers, the next provincial election may turn out to be a traditional PQ-QLP confrontation. Article content If this is so, it will be tempting for the provincial Liberals to run a campaign based solely on Quebecers' fear of another separation referendum, a strategy that has worked well in the past. In 2026, though, that would be a mistake. Although most Quebecers want to remain in Canada, especially with Donald Trump's annexation threats, their priorities lie elsewhere: the cost of living, the catastrophic state of public services, the shortage of housing, high immigration, etc. They will expect concrete and credible solutions to those problems from the parties vying for power. Article content Under their charismatic leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the Péquistes have demonstrated a knack for developing original policy ideas. Rodriguez's Liberals will have to come up with their own, more convincing proposals. If they are not successful, Quebecers may vote PQ notwithstanding the referendum threat. Article content
Montreal Gazette
5 days ago
- Politics
- Montreal Gazette
Poll shows Quebec Liberals second under new leader Pablo Rodriguez
Quebec Politics QUEBEC — The impact of new Liberal Leader Pablo Rodriguez is already being felt across the Quebec political scene. A poll conducted just after his victory shows a rise in voting intentions for the Liberals at the expense of François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec. According to the Pallas Data poll released Tuesday, the Parti Québécois still leads with 31 per cent. But the Liberals, now led by Rodriguez, are not far behind with 26 per cent, up four points from the previous poll in March. The CAQ has fallen to third place with 15 per cent, 11 points behind the Liberals. Legault's party is statistically tied with Éric Duhaime's Conservative Party. Québec solidaire is last at 12 per cent. A surprise in this poll is that the Liberals have risen in support from francophones to 19 per cent, up from 14 per cent in March. This puts them second behind the PQ at 38 per cent. This survey, commissioned by the polling aggregator Qc125, was conducted from June 14-16 among a random sample of 1,085 Quebec respondents age 18 and older. The margin of error is plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20. A Léger poll published in May, before the end of the Liberal race, indicated that if the party chose Rodriguez as leader, it would rise to 31 per cent of voting intentions, a statistical tie with the PQ. The general election will be held in October 2026.
Montreal Gazette
6 days ago
- Politics
- Montreal Gazette
Opinion: Quebec Liberals pick Pablo Rodriguez. Brace for a return to sovereignty battles in Quebec
It was far from the spectacular coronation some were expecting. On Saturday, Pablo Rodriguez became the new leader of the Quebec Liberal Party, securing just over 52 per cent support on the second ballot against runner-up Charles Milliard. That's quite a short margin — light years away compared to Mark Carney's stunning 86 per cent majority on the first ballot just a few months ago on the federal stage. After a leadership race that lasted nearly a whole year, Justin Trudeau's former lieutenant inherits a party that is deeply divided. Results show that close to one in two Liberal members (47.7 per cent) didn't make him either their first or second choice in this preferential voting system. As a matter of fact, the 'Anyone but Pablo' movement nearly cost him the victory at the finish line. So his first task, before he can begin persuading voters to trust him in the next election, will be to unite his own party — and his caucus at the National Assembly — around his leadership and vision for the QLP's future. Time will tell whether a staunch Montreal-based federalist like Rodriguez can bring nationalists and rural voters back into the Liberal fold. Milliard, the former CEO of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec, was the surprise of the race, finishing second on the first ballot and beating high-profile contender Karl Blackburn. Many saw in him as a breath of fresh air — a younger political outsider akin to Paul St-Pierre Plamondon for the Parti Québécois. For some, the choice of a seasoned politician like Rodriguez is seen as a missed opportunity for the party's renewal and for reconnecting with younger generations of Quebecers. One thing is for sure: After an impressive campaign in which Liberal members and the broader public got to know him better, Milliard has proven his high potential and shown what he's capable of. As he confirmed again this weekend his intention to run in the next provincial election as a Liberal candidate, there's little doubt we'll soon see him again on the political stage. Rodriguez's arrival in provincial politics also signals a potential revival of the sovereignty debate. He referenced it in his victory speech, already wielding the spectre of a third referendum on Quebec independence to dissuade voters from supporting the PQ. After an eight-year hiatus during which Quebecers embraced the so-called 'third way' offered by the nationalist-but-not-separatist Coalition Avenir Québec, it seems like the next election will likely revolve around the question of sovereignty. Yes, again. And the PQ is certainly thrilled at the idea of going back to these 'glory days'. Following five decades in which provincial politics were dominated by the debate over whether Quebec should secede from Canada, many believed François Legault's rise to power in 2018 had opened a new chapter — and perhaps even put the sovereigntist movement to rest for good. I must admit that I was one of them. And that we were probably wrong about it. With the ultra-federalist Rodriguez now facing off against hardline sovereigntist St-Pierre Plamondon — who is openly committed to holding another referendum in his first term if he becomes the next premier — Quebec appears to be poised to return to the good old quarrels about the province's future within Canada. And in this world of wedge politics and picking sides, this divisive question may serve well both the Liberals and the PQ, eclipsing in the process other, more pressing issues such as the economy, the management public finances, health, and education, to name just a few. All that, despite polls suggesting that roughly two-thirds of Quebecers are simply not interested in reopening this never-ending debate. It's almost as if we're moving backwards.
Vancouver Sun
14-06-2025
- Politics
- Vancouver Sun
Why a 'love story' with Mark Carney is François Legault's only hope
OTTAWA — Quebec Premier François Legault was on fire last weekend. The man who is clearly and unequivocally the most unpopular premier in Canada, according to the latest Angus Reid poll , stood before the future of his party, the members of the youth wing of the Coalition Avenir Québec, smiling and ready to fight. 'I want to fight more than ever! For a third term, to finish the job!' he roared. 'I need you to continue building Quebec for future generations,' he added. But the polls suggest that the fight seems lost for Legault, known for years as the country's most beloved premier. And for the man who has made a punching bag of the federal Liberal government, it's a cruel twist of fate that Prime Minister Mark Carney may be the only person who can save the Quebec premier. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. With nearly a year to go until the election, the man who won one of the largest majorities in Quebec's history, with 90 out of 125 seats, is facing a massacre. According to the latest Angus Reid report, only a quarter of Quebecers approve of his performance. In March 2020, at the start of the pandemic, his approval rating was 77 per cent. 'Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the CAQ wins zero seat in next year's election,' said a CAQ insider that was granted anonymity to speak more freely out of fear of repercussions. The man behind the poll aggregator , Philippe J. Fournier, is almost convinced that if there were an election today, the CAQ would not have party status. 'Currently, Mr. Legault is in a situation that is similar or even perhaps a little worse than (then prime minister) Justin Trudeau in December,' he told National Post. His government has faced numerous controversies over the past two and a half years. Right now, he is being hit on all fronts for his government mismanagement in the health, energy, transport and finances files. The public, it seems, has simply had enough of this government and no longer trusts it. Legault sees things differently and presents himself as the nationalist and economic candidate. But the road ahead isn't smooth. On the one hand, the separatist Parti Québécois has comfortably taken the lead and is garnering all the attention with a leader who remains perfectly clear about his intentions during the first mandate of a PQ government. Yes, this is a referendum on Quebec independence. With a popular leader leading the way among francophones, with a similar margin to that of federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre a year ago, the PQ has now brought the separatists back home after a decade of desertion. On the other hand, Legault will have to deal with a new leader of the Quebec Liberal Party starting Saturday, when the party chooses its candidate to become Quebec's next premier. The QLP has been in dormancy since the 2022 election debacle and is dreaming of a massive comeback with a new leader. 'If the next election is about a possible PQ referendum, it becomes clear that we are the alternative. Nobody believes that Legault is a federalist,' said a Liberal source. In April, interim leader Marc Tanguay dropped a bombshell by publicly declaring that he had information that preparations for a CAQ leadership convention were underway. Last week, he claimed his information was still accurate. But Legault insisted he would seek a third term. After all, he doesn't have what Trudeau had a few months ago: Carney as a successor. And Carney may be the only person who can save Legault. For weeks now, the premier has been unusually nice to the federal Liberals, a party that he wanted defeated last fall when he asked the Parti Québécois leader to tell his 'comrade' at the Bloc Québécois to overthrow the Trudeau government. Now, Legault tells his own members that Quebec 'must work hand in hand with the federal government.' According to him, there is 'an exceptional opportunity' with Carney in Ottawa because he is a prime minister 'laser focused' on the economy. But also, because Carney's entourage is prominently from Quebec. François-Philippe Champagne is finance minister, Mélanie Joly is the minister of industry, Marc-André Blanchard will be Carney's chief of staff and now Michael Sabia, who was Legault's pick as CEO of Hydro-Québec, is the next clerk of the Privy Council. 'It's as if the stars were aligned… So, now is the time to take advantage of it,' Legault said in his speech. The PQ is now calling the Carney-Legault relationship a 'love story.' 'If he can seek economic opportunities at the federal level and then take credit for them, of course he will do so, so that is called a political opportunity,' said Emilie Foster, a former CAQ MNA and professor at Carleton University. During her term as a backbencher for Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré in the National Assembly from 2018 to 2022, Foster said she never heard her premier utter the words 'military' and 'defence.' This week, as Carney announced massive military spending to meet NATO's two per cent target, Legault quickly announced millions of dollars to support Quebec's defence industry and visited three companies. In Ottawa, this sudden affection from Quebec City is more than welcome. Many Quebec Liberal MPs were all smiles this week. None of them were the most popular politician in Quebec. No, the most popular 'by far' noted Fournier, is Mark Carney. Now, Legault wants a piece of it and wants to show the electorate his record of economic success next year. So far, he's boasted of outperforming Ontario and Canada in per capita economic growth, wage growth and disposable income growth. Legault wants major projects. Like the Newfoundland-Quebec power line, with the help of Carney, who has introduced a bill to fast track major projects. It's his only chance of survival, according to Foster. Over the past few decades, he's pledged to be an 'economic man,' just like Carney. Yet the province has recorded the largest deficits in its history. But Legault is making the case that the PQ won't try to achieve success with the federal government because it wants to demonstrate that Canada isn't working. 'So this is not the time to have the PQ in power, this must be very clear, and it must be explained to Quebecers,' Legault said. He simply hopes that Quebecers will give the PQ the same treatment that Canadians gave the Conservatives. National Post atrepanier@ Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what's really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers Sign up here. Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here .
