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National Observer
2 days ago
- Politics
- National Observer
Pierre Poilievre might be cooked
The clock is officially ticking on Pierre Poilievre. The Conservative Party of Canada is reportedly set to hold a leadership review next January in Calgary, one that will give members an opportunity to weigh in on his performance. Even making it to next January's vote will set him apart from his two predecessors, Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole, who both resigned before they had to face their party's membership after losing their own elections. Winning it by a sufficiently convincing margin will be another matter entirely. First, of course, he has to win back a seat in the House of Commons. Mark Carney has said he will call a byelection for the riding of Battle River-Crowfoot, one officially resigned by Conservative MP Damien Kurek earlier this week. And while it's one of the safest Conservative seats in the country, it also presents a special kind of danger for Poilievre given the increase in separatist activity — if not support — in the province. Alberta separatists are heavily overrepresented in the Conservative membership of Kurek's largely rural riding, and Poilievre will have to find a way to put them in their place without risking a backlash. This is the kind of tightrope he'll have to walk for the next six months. In order to secure the support of his base, and especially the members enthusiastic enough to turn out for a leadership review, he'll have to continue catering to them with Costco-sized quantities of red meat. But it's precisely that sort of pandering that helped cost him the last election, and could just as easily cost him the next one. The more he tries to hold onto his current job, the further the job he really wants slips from his reach. So far, at least, he's shown no signs of being able to thread this particular political needle. Take his recent comments about immigration, ones that seem designed to appeal to a very specific slice of his party's base — and alienate the rest of the country in the process. 'We want severe limits on population growth to reverse the damage the Liberals did to our system,' he told reporters before turning on his heel and walking away from their follow-up questions. If this sounds more like something PPC leader Maxime Bernier would say, that's probably by design. Never mind, for the moment, that the federal government has already made massive changes to its immigration policy — ones that could actually produce negative population growth over the next few years. As Waterloo economics professor Mikal Skuterud said on social media, 'Poilievre's call for 'severe limits on population growth' suggests he hasn't understood how far Liberals' 2025-2027 Immigration Targets go. We may see *declining* population levels (not just growth rates) in coming quarters.' His comment about immigration also suggests he doesn't understand the real challenge he faces right now. He can spend the next six months pushing his party further to the right in an attempt to motivate its base and retain the leadership. But he may simply be securing the most Pyrrhic of victories, given the impact that would have on his standing with the broader Canadian public. According to multiple pollsters, that standing has already eroded since the election. According to Nanos Research, Mark Carney now enjoys a 26 point advantage over Poilievre when it comes to who Canadians prefer as prime minister. 'The proportion of Canadians who prefer Conservative Leader Poilievre as PM has hit the lowest level since he assumed the leadership of the party in 2022,' Nik Nanos said. EKOS Research has the spread even wider, with Carney's job approval rating at +36 and Poilievre's at -34. Maybe the most damning data points come from Spark Advocacy's latest poll, which shows that two-thirds of Canadians have positive feelings about their new prime minister. Worse, for Poilievre and his team, Carney is more popular among young people (by 10 points) and men (by 15 points) than the Conservative leader. These were supposed to be key building blocks in the new Conservative coalition Poilievre is building. Pierre Poilievre probably thought that losing the election and his own seat was as bad as it could get for him. But if his own personal popularity continues to collapse, he might be in for an even bigger surprise than the one he experienced in April. It's not as though Poilievre and the Conservatives are doomed to lose a fifth federal election in a row, whenever that election happens. Canadians will eventually tire of Carney, and that could happen far sooner than the prime minister and his advisors would like to imagine. But relying on Carney to fail is not a recipe for Poilievre's success. If he wants to win the next election, he needs to actually take stock of why he lost the last one — and make the necessary adjustments. Mark Bourrie, who wrote a biography of Poilievre in advance of what looked like an inevitable victory, doesn't think that's going to happen. In a recent piece for The Walrus, he noted that 'Poilievre seems to lack self-awareness and reflection. Loyalty, a virtue in others, becomes a liability when a politician clings to those who aren't up to the job. Or who alienate potential friends. Since he was a kid, Poilievre's rigidity has walled out new ideas and contrary, sometimes better, ways of looking at things.' The leader, in other words, is not for turning. He may be incapable, both by virtue of temperament and training, of the sort of introspection and humility required to acknowledge mistakes and make changes. Even if he did, it's not clear his party's radicalized membership, which has been trained by Poilievre and his team over the last few years to see moderation as weakness, would accept it. Poilievre's leadership is safe for now, at least. But as Global News's Mackenzie Gray noted in a recent story, 'one source warned that if the Conservative leader isn't careful, a push to remove him could snowball quickly.' He might want to ask Scheer and O'Toole what that looks like — and whether there's any way to stop it.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
PPC's (JSE:PPC) Earnings Offer More Than Meets The Eye
Shareholders appeared to be happy with PPC Ltd's (JSE:PPC) solid earnings report last week. This reaction by the market reaction is understandable when looking at headline profits and we have found some further encouraging factors. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF. Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future". Over the twelve months to March 2025, PPC recorded an accrual ratio of -0.10. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of R1.0b, well over the R466.0m it reported in profit. PPC's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. See our latest analysis for PPC That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates. PPC's profit was reduced by unusual items worth R186m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. This is what you'd expect to see where a company has a non-cash charge reducing paper profits. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect PPC to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal. In conclusion, both PPC's accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings are probably reasonably conservative. Looking at all these factors, we'd say that PPC's underlying earnings power is at least as good as the statutory numbers would make it seem. If you'd like to know more about PPC as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. You'd be interested to know, that we found 1 warning sign for PPC and you'll want to know about it. Our examination of PPC has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And it has passed with flying colours. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio


Express Tribune
6 days ago
- Express Tribune
Attempt to marry off 13-year-old girl foiled
An attempt to solemnise the marriage of a 13-year-old girl in Hijrat Colony was foiled on Friday after a joint operation by local police and the Women and Child Protection Cell. According to a police spokesperson, the raid was carried out after the Women and Child Protection Cell received credible information regarding the planned child marriage. The cell immediately alerted District South SSP Mehtor Ali, who directed the Civil Lines police to take action. A police team rushed to the address and found that preparations were underway for the underage girl's wedding. Officials intervened just in time, stopping the ceremony before it could take place. Police asked the family to produce official documentation to verify the girl's age, which confirmed that she was only 13-year old. Acting on the minor's statement and other available evidence, police arrested the girl's parents and several others allegedly involved in organising the marriage. A case has been registered at the Civil Lines police station under Sections 3 and 5 of the Sindh Child Marriage Restraint Act, 2013, and Section 511 of the Pakistan Penal Code (PPC), which pertains to attempts to commit an offence.


Express Tribune
6 days ago
- Express Tribune
Man arrested for blackmailing woman with inappropriate video
Listen to article The National Cybercrime Investigation Agency (NCCIA) has taken into custody a man accused of blackmailing a woman using a compromising video and extorting over Rs700,000 in cash from her, officials said on Saturday. According to an official statement, a case was registered on the victim's complaint, who alleged that the accused, identified as Ghulam Kazim, had secretly recorded an inappropriate video of her. He allegedly used the footage to threaten and blackmail her, demanding both money and illicit favours under the threat of releasing the video on social media, she added. The woman told investigators that Kazim had already extorted Rs700,000 from her in hush money. Acting on the complaint, the NCCIA arrested the suspect during a raid on Autobahn Road in Hyderabad. The agency also seized his mobile phone, which reportedly contained incriminating data, including the video used for blackmail. The accused, a resident of Sobho Dero in district Khairpur, was taken into custody and an FIR was registered against him under Sections 21 and 24 of the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA), 2016, as well as Sections 109 and 509 of the Pakistan Penal Code (PPC). Officials said that further investigations are under way to determine if the accused was involved in similar offences against other victims.


Express Tribune
6 days ago
- Express Tribune
Attempt to marry off 13-year-old foiled in Karachi's Hijrat Colony
Listen to article An attempt to solemnise the marriage of a 13-year-old girl in Hijrat Colony was foiled on Saturday after a joint operation by local police and the Women and Child Protection Cell. According to a police spokesperson, the raid was conducted after the Women and Child Protection Cell received information regarding the planned 'child marriage.' The cell immediately alerted District South SSP Mehtor Ali, who ordered the Civil Lines police to take action. A police team rushed to the address and found that preparations were underway for the underage girl's wedding. Officials intervened just in time, stopping the ceremony before it could take place. Police asked the family to produce official documentation to verify the girl's age, which confirmed that she was only 13-year old. Acting on the minor's statement and other available evidence, police arrested the girl's parents and several others allegedly involved in organising the marriage. A case has been registered at the Civil Lines police station under Sections 3 and 5 of the Sindh Child Marriage Restraint Act, 2013, and Section 511 of the Pakistan Penal Code (PPC), which pertains to attempts to commit an offence. 'Strict legal action will be taken against anyone involved in such illegal cultural practices, regardless of their status or influence,' SSP Mehtor Ali told the media.