Latest news with #OctopusDoctrine
India.com
a day ago
- Politics
- India.com
What is 'Octopus Doctrine' to overthrow Iran's Islamic regime? Supreme leader Khamenei likely to be..., Netanyahu now plans to...
New Delhi: The attacks by Israel on Iran that started with an aim to stop it from developing a nuclear bomb have now shifted to military bases and civilian infrastructure. US President Donald Trump himself has mentioned the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader in a tweet. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now openly talking about toppling the Islamic regime. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Mossad have targeted Iran's nuclear sites, missile complexes, and military installations in Natanz and Isfahan, killing several top Iranian commanders and nuclear scientists. In other words, Israel is now directly striking at the 'head' of the Iranian regime. This raises a serious question: Is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's real goal actually regime change in Iran? Israel has destroyed major energy infrastructure in Iran, including the South Pars gas field, which is the world's largest natural gas reserve. Experts believe that the aim of these attacks is to break the people's trust in the Islamic regime and push the country into an economic crisis that would be difficult for the current government to recover from. Observing Israel's latest strikes, it appears that it has either set new targets or its real objectives are now becoming clear. In the first phase, Israel aims to slow down Iran's nuclear program. In the second phase, the goal is to cripple the Iranian military by targeting its delivery systems and the military leadership that controls them. The third phase of this plan is known as the 'Octopus Doctrine'. What is the 'Octopus Doctrine' against Iran? Israel's current attacks are now being seen as part of the 'Octopus Doctrine'. According to this doctrine, Israel believes that Iran's real strength does not lie in its proxy terrorist organizations like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Houthi rebels, or Hezbollah, but rather in the power center located in Tehran—under the control of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Until now, Israel had primarily been fighting against Iran-backed proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. However, under this new doctrine, Israel is now striking at the 'head of the octopus'—meaning the Iranian regime itself. The Israeli Prime Minister has made a direct appeal to the people of Iran, urging them to rise against the country's Islamic regime. Several other Israeli leaders have echoed this call. However, there has been no significant response from the Iranian public, which is reportedly a cause of concern for Prime Minister Netanyahu. Israeli leaders have also claimed that Ayatollah Khamenei will eventually meet the same fate as Saddam Hussein, which they say is part of the Octopus Doctrine strategy.
&w=3840&q=100)
First Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Can Israel really topple Iran's Khamenei? What does Netanyahu exactly want?
Can Israel really topple Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei? Is Netanyahu aiming for more than just stopping a nuclear bomb? While Israel says its strikes are meant to halt Iran's nuclear programme, the recent attacks tell a bigger story. read more Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long insisted that against Iran is aimed at preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. However, the scale and breadth of Israel's recent strikes — but also core regime infrastructure — have prompted growing debate about whether Netanyahu's ambitions may extend to regime change in Iran. After launching a surprise wave of airstrikes on June 12-13, Israel struck more than a dozen locations across Iran in its largest assault since the Iran–Iraq War, under the codename Operation Rising Lion. The and Mossad targeted nuclear sites at Natanz and Isfahan, missile complexes, and military installations, killing several top commanders and nuclear scientists. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD While the initial focus was on degrading , subsequent attacks have reached deep into the regime's political and security core, including the foreign and defence ministries, police headquarters, and the state broadcaster in Tehran. Israel has also hit major energy infrastructure, such as the South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reservoir. Analysts say these targets are crucial to the regime's military logistics and economic stability. What Israel is doing looks incremental in logic. It seems to have set a priority of targets. In the first stage, Israel is looking to slow down, if it can't end, . The second aim is clearly to cripple the Iranian military by targeting its delivery systems and the leadership that controls them. As the final goal that Netanyahu has repeatedly and some experts believe that's Israel's evolving strategy — known as the 'Octopus Doctrine' — is to shift from targeting Iran's proxies to striking at the regime's head. They argue that Israel's real objective behind attacks on energy infrastructure is to trigger a social unrest against the Islamic Republic, challenging it from within. Netanyahu has made direct appeals to the Iranian public, urging them to 'stand up to the regime' and suggesting Israel's campaign could 'clear the path for you to achieve your freedom'. This approach could be counter-productive for Israel. It has been seen world over that when countries are attacked by a foreign power, the population rallies around the flag, which becomes their identity. Experts caution that foreign intervention rarely triggers regime change and could even backfire, strengthening the regime by rallying nationalistic sentiment. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD On the ground, the conflict has been devastating. Iran's health ministry reports more than 200 people killed, including many civilians, and over 1,000 injured. Strikes on residential areas and public infrastructure have added to the toll, while the IDF has warned civilians to evacuate areas near military sites. Despite Israel's tactical successes — achieving aerial superiority over Tehran, destroying missile launchers, and eliminating senior military figures — the regime's core remains intact. Much of Iran's underground nuclear enrichment capacity, especially at Fordow, has survived, and Iran has vowed to accelerate its programme once hostilities cease. Meanwhile, the risk of wider regional escalation is growing, with Iran and its proxies threatening further retaliation and mediation efforts underway to prevent further conflict. There's an increasing possibility of the US getting involved in the Israel-Iran military conflict. US President Donald Trump is said to be reviewing his policy of keeping a safe distance from Netanyahu's aggressive moves against Tehran. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD While Israel's strikes have dealt serious blows to Iran's military and political leadership, the prospect of regime change remains highly uncertain, at least for now despite reports of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei having been isolated and his son taking all key decisions or rumours that Khamenei is planning to flee Iran. External pressure may destabilise, but it can just as easily unify a population behind its government in times of crisis. For Netanyahu, the stakes are high: failure to achieve his stated aims could have profound consequences for his own political future.
France 24
3 days ago
- Politics
- France 24
What Israel really wants in Iran
When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid out his goals after launching strikes on Iran on Friday last week, he said that the Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons and existing ballistic missiles were the primary targets of the Israeli operation. The goal was to end the 'existential threat' Israel says it faces from Iran, which has long denied Israel's right to exist. But the latest air strikes seem to tell a different story. Israeli attacks targeted an Iranian foreign ministry building and the defence ministry in Tehran on Sunday. Police headquarters in the city centre were also hit by Israeli jets that same day. On Monday, Israel said it had struck the command centre of Iran's Quds Force, the branch of the elite Revolutionary Guards that coordinates operations outside the country and reports directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. These new targets are much more closely tied to the heart of the Iranian regime's military and political decision-making fulcrum than to its nuclear programme. Priorities Israel on Saturday also targeted the massive South Pars gas field, which is the world's largest reservoir of natural gas. 'The logic [for the Israeli government] is incremental. There is a priority of targets,' explained Clive Jones, professor of regional security at Durham University's School of Government and International Affairs. The first is to significantly slow down – or potentially end – Iran's nuclear programme. 'The second is to target military delivery systems and the leadership that controls them,' Jones said. Jones believes the second priority was the reasoning behind Israel's attacks on the gas field. 'If you look at the strikes Israel has conducted, what they've tried to do is hit fuel plants that supply the Iranian military – those associated with their rockets programmes, for example, or refuelling tankers,' Jones said. 'They've not yet really hit civilian energy infrastructure. That may be something that comes later, depending on what happens next.' Other targets might be chosen for shock value, according to Middle East expert Filippo Dionigi of the University of Bristol. Attacks on buildings linked to the regime or the targeted assassinations of officials can be seen as an attempt by Israel to 'shock the enemy and try to subvert its chain of command and create chaos, so that it slows down its capacity to react', Dionigi said. 01:33 The Octopus Doctrine Israel's multi-pronged strategy is also known as the 'Octopus Doctrine', which was first established by former prime minister Naftali Bennett in 2021, said Veronika Poniscjakova, an expert on conflicts in the Middle East at Portsmouth University. 'Iran is the octopus with tentacles all around the Middle East,' Poniscjakova said, with proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza. Its new approach means that Israel will 'no longer go after the tentacles of the octopus, [targeting these groups] or carrying out covert attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities [as with] the Stuxnet computer virus, but go for the octopus's head directly … striking at the source of the threat – the regime itself'. But the scope of Israel's strikes on Iran could suggest the country has broader geopolitical goals, some analysts believe. 'Israel is aiming for a regime collapse in Iran. That is the only reason they would attack energy infrastructures, to increase social unrest against the Islamic Republic by the Iranian people,' said Shahin Modarres, director of the Iran Desk at the International Team for the Study of Security Verona. And if Israel decides to target civilian energy infrastructure exclusively, power cuts across the country could become more frequent, widespread, and eventually 'undermine the trust the population has in its leaders', Dionigi said. The Iranian health ministry has said that 90 percent of casualties so far are civilians. Strikes on political buildings and the targeting of the state-run TV during a live broadcast could be seen as a way to signal to the Iranian opposition that '[they] can exploit the opportunity to stand up against the regime', Poniscjakova explained. 09:40 Most tellingly, Netanyahu issued a direct appeal to Iranians as the Israeli offensive began on Friday, saying he hoped the military operation will 'clear the path for you to achieve your freedom'. "This is your opportunity to stand up [to the regime]," he added. Netanyahu's 'social media post aimed at the Iranian people, in which he effectively says Israel is paving the way and targeting a regime that has kept you repressed', Jones said, adding that the post made it pretty clear the Israeli premier is hoping for regime change. But whether an internal revolt is something that can be encouraged by a competing regional power that has long been at odds with Iran is far from certain. An 'existential war' for Iran Israel's bombing of Iranian police headquarters in Tehran and its subsequent attacks on the ministry of intelligence and security 'could degrade the regime's ability to maintain internal security and social control' on a practical level, according to a report published by the Institute for the Study of War on Monday. But it remains to be seen whether Iranian leadership can be weakened to the point where it is no longer capable of halting an uprising. 'That's the ultimate question that nobody can really answer, at least for now,' Jones said. Any interference from abroad could also backfire. 'External interference in the political affairs of a country rarely has the effect of simply provoking a reaction against the leadership,' Dionigi said. 'Interference could have the opposite outcome and awaken a sense of national awareness, national pride and regrouping.' In other words, in positioning himself as a supporter of the Iranian opposition, Netanyahu could actually strengthen the regime – at least for the duration of the war. The Israeli prime minister is taking a 'huge risk' by going beyond his initial aim of dismantling Iran's nuclear programme. 'When countries are under attack, there is a tendency for people to rally around the flag, even if they dislike the regime,' Jones said. 'For the Iranian regime, this is an existential war,' Dionigi added. 'They will use all of their military capacity for as long as necessary to guarantee their existence.' For Netanyahu there is also the looming threat of greater escalation that could lead to 'a higher number of civilian fatalities [in Israel], which could put more political pressure on the government', Modarres said. 'It all depends on how [Netanyahu] ends this war. Either he dismantles the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme and manages to conduct a regime change, or it backfires and his political career ends,' he added.
