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An extraordinary shift in Israeli aggression, and the total redrawing of power in the Middle East
An extraordinary shift in Israeli aggression, and the total redrawing of power in the Middle East

The Age

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • The Age

An extraordinary shift in Israeli aggression, and the total redrawing of power in the Middle East

For Israel's critics, the attack was the inevitable consequence of the country's blockade of Gaza, occupation of the West Bank, and failure to resolve the Palestinian conflict through diplomatic concessions. Many Israelis have drawn the opposite conclusion: They believe that the October attack – the deadliest in Israeli history – stemmed from Israel's failure to pre-emptively and decisively defeat its enemies. Loading 'In the 20 years before October 7, we allowed threats to develop beyond our borders, trusting that our intelligence would give us prior warnings of any attack,' said Major General Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence. 'The trauma of October 7 completely changed that mindset and made us willing to take risks that we didn't take in the past,' Yadlin said. 'We will no longer wait to be attacked, and we will not wait to be surprised.' The approach echoes Israel's strategic outlook in the early decades of its existence, when it often acted more swiftly and decisively to remove threats on its borders, Yadlin said. The clearest example was in June 1967, when Israel pre-emptively attacked Egypt after the Egyptian military moved troops toward the Israeli border. 'As Egypt massed troops on our southern border, we did not wait to be surprised,' Yadlin said. 'Now, we are reviving that doctrine.' Israel's new approach is the culmination of months of reevaluation, during which the military's confidence - crushed by the failures of October 7 – was gradually restored. While Israel's approach to Hamas was immediately wrathful, the country was initially wary of taking on Hezbollah and Iran. Netanyahu called off a pre-emptive attack on Hezbollah in the first week of the war in 2023, amid fears that Israel would struggle to maintain a multifront war against the Iran-led alliance. For nearly a year, Israel fought only a low-level border conflict with Hezbollah. Despite increasing clashes with Iran in 2024, Israel limited its strikes on Iran to avoid an all-out conflict. Israel's approach began to change in September, when a sequence of unexpected moves allowed Israel to decimate much of Hezbollah's senior leadership. That increased Israel's confidence and prompted its leaders to order a more decisive assault on the group. Troops invaded southern Lebanon and the air force killed Hezbollah's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah. Israel then severely weakened Iran's air defence systems and successfully repelled massive barrages of Iranian missiles, giving Israel greater confidence in its offensive and defensive abilities. More than a year after October 7, Israeli leaders finally concluded that they had a rare window of opportunity to mount a decisive blow against Iran's nuclear program. Though Israel's new approach has undercut Iran's regional influence, it has done little to resolve Israel's oldest and most intractable problem: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In Gaza, Israel's retaliation has led to widespread destruction and bloodshed, reinstating a fearsome sense of Israeli might and reducing Hamas' threat for a generation. Loading But the conflict has provided no clear long-term trajectory for either Gaza or the wider Palestinian question. Netanyahu has consistently ignored opportunities to end the war, balking at the idea of either leaving Hamas' remnants in charge or allowing other Palestinian groups to take over. 'Instead, we are left with only bad options,' said Tzipi Livni, a former Israeli foreign minister. 'Either occupation or chaos, rather than a diplomatic process involving moderate regional and Palestinian stakeholders that could change the reality on the ground for both Palestinians and Israelis.' A similarly aimless dynamic could yet emerge in Iran, analysts said, if the Israeli leadership fails to clearly define its goals there and set an exit strategy. For now, Israeli officials hope the United States will join the attack and help Israel destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities. If the US stays away, and if Iran refuses to stop the enrichment by choice, it is unclear whether Israel's forceful new doctrine will achieve the kind of game-changing outcomes that many Israelis desire. 'One wonders whether effective military performance is matched by a sober political vision,' said Nimrod Novik, a former senior Israeli official and a fellow at Israel Policy Forum, a research group in New York. 'Or, like in Gaza, we are left without an endgame. Time will tell.'

How Israel completely transformed the balance of power in the Middle East
How Israel completely transformed the balance of power in the Middle East

Sydney Morning Herald

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • Sydney Morning Herald

How Israel completely transformed the balance of power in the Middle East

For Israel's critics, the attack was the inevitable consequence of the country's blockade of Gaza, occupation of the West Bank, and failure to resolve the Palestinian conflict through diplomatic concessions. Many Israelis have drawn the opposite conclusion: They believe that the October attack – the deadliest in Israeli history – stemmed from Israel's failure to pre-emptively and decisively defeat its enemies. Loading 'In the 20 years before October 7, we allowed threats to develop beyond our borders, trusting that our intelligence would give us prior warnings of any attack,' said Major General Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence. 'The trauma of October 7 completely changed that mindset and made us willing to take risks that we didn't take in the past,' Yadlin said. 'We will no longer wait to be attacked, and we will not wait to be surprised.' The approach echoes Israel's strategic outlook in the early decades of its existence, when it often acted more swiftly and decisively to remove threats on its borders, Yadlin said. The clearest example was in June 1967, when Israel pre-emptively attacked Egypt after the Egyptian military moved troops toward the Israeli border. 'As Egypt massed troops on our southern border, we did not wait to be surprised,' Yadlin said. 'Now, we are reviving that doctrine.' Israel's new approach is the culmination of months of reevaluation, during which the military's confidence - crushed by the failures of October 7 – was gradually restored. While Israel's approach to Hamas was immediately wrathful, the country was initially wary of taking on Hezbollah and Iran. Netanyahu called off a pre-emptive attack on Hezbollah in the first week of the war in 2023, amid fears that Israel would struggle to maintain a multifront war against the Iran-led alliance. For nearly a year, Israel fought only a low-level border conflict with Hezbollah. Despite increasing clashes with Iran in 2024, Israel limited its strikes on Iran to avoid an all-out conflict. Israel's approach began to change in September, when a sequence of unexpected moves allowed Israel to decimate much of Hezbollah's senior leadership. That increased Israel's confidence and prompted its leaders to order a more decisive assault on the group. Troops invaded southern Lebanon and the air force killed Hezbollah's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah. Israel then severely weakened Iran's air defence systems and successfully repelled massive barrages of Iranian missiles, giving Israel greater confidence in its offensive and defensive abilities. More than a year after October 7, Israeli leaders finally concluded that they had a rare window of opportunity to mount a decisive blow against Iran's nuclear program. Though Israel's new approach has undercut Iran's regional influence, it has done little to resolve Israel's oldest and most intractable problem: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In Gaza, Israel's retaliation has led to widespread destruction and bloodshed, reinstating a fearsome sense of Israeli might and reducing Hamas' threat for a generation. Loading But the conflict has provided no clear long-term trajectory for either Gaza or the wider Palestinian question. Netanyahu has consistently ignored opportunities to end the war, balking at the idea of either leaving Hamas' remnants in charge or allowing other Palestinian groups to take over. 'Instead, we are left with only bad options,' said Tzipi Livni, a former Israeli foreign minister. 'Either occupation or chaos, rather than a diplomatic process involving moderate regional and Palestinian stakeholders that could change the reality on the ground for both Palestinians and Israelis.' A similarly aimless dynamic could yet emerge in Iran, analysts said, if the Israeli leadership fails to clearly define its goals there and set an exit strategy. For now, Israeli officials hope the United States will join the attack and help Israel destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities. If the US stays away, and if Iran refuses to stop the enrichment by choice, it is unclear whether Israel's forceful new doctrine will achieve the kind of game-changing outcomes that many Israelis desire. 'One wonders whether effective military performance is matched by a sober political vision,' said Nimrod Novik, a former senior Israeli official and a fellow at Israel Policy Forum, a research group in New York. 'Or, like in Gaza, we are left without an endgame. Time will tell.'

How Israel completely transformed the balance of power in the Middle East
How Israel completely transformed the balance of power in the Middle East

The Age

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • The Age

How Israel completely transformed the balance of power in the Middle East

For Israel's critics, the attack was the inevitable consequence of the country's blockade of Gaza, occupation of the West Bank, and failure to resolve the Palestinian conflict through diplomatic concessions. Many Israelis have drawn the opposite conclusion: They believe that the October attack – the deadliest in Israeli history – stemmed from Israel's failure to pre-emptively and decisively defeat its enemies. Loading 'In the 20 years before October 7, we allowed threats to develop beyond our borders, trusting that our intelligence would give us prior warnings of any attack,' said Major General Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence. 'The trauma of October 7 completely changed that mindset and made us willing to take risks that we didn't take in the past,' Yadlin said. 'We will no longer wait to be attacked, and we will not wait to be surprised.' The approach echoes Israel's strategic outlook in the early decades of its existence, when it often acted more swiftly and decisively to remove threats on its borders, Yadlin said. The clearest example was in June 1967, when Israel pre-emptively attacked Egypt after the Egyptian military moved troops toward the Israeli border. 'As Egypt massed troops on our southern border, we did not wait to be surprised,' Yadlin said. 'Now, we are reviving that doctrine.' Israel's new approach is the culmination of months of reevaluation, during which the military's confidence - crushed by the failures of October 7 – was gradually restored. While Israel's approach to Hamas was immediately wrathful, the country was initially wary of taking on Hezbollah and Iran. Netanyahu called off a pre-emptive attack on Hezbollah in the first week of the war in 2023, amid fears that Israel would struggle to maintain a multifront war against the Iran-led alliance. For nearly a year, Israel fought only a low-level border conflict with Hezbollah. Despite increasing clashes with Iran in 2024, Israel limited its strikes on Iran to avoid an all-out conflict. Israel's approach began to change in September, when a sequence of unexpected moves allowed Israel to decimate much of Hezbollah's senior leadership. That increased Israel's confidence and prompted its leaders to order a more decisive assault on the group. Troops invaded southern Lebanon and the air force killed Hezbollah's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah. Israel then severely weakened Iran's air defence systems and successfully repelled massive barrages of Iranian missiles, giving Israel greater confidence in its offensive and defensive abilities. More than a year after October 7, Israeli leaders finally concluded that they had a rare window of opportunity to mount a decisive blow against Iran's nuclear program. Though Israel's new approach has undercut Iran's regional influence, it has done little to resolve Israel's oldest and most intractable problem: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In Gaza, Israel's retaliation has led to widespread destruction and bloodshed, reinstating a fearsome sense of Israeli might and reducing Hamas' threat for a generation. Loading But the conflict has provided no clear long-term trajectory for either Gaza or the wider Palestinian question. Netanyahu has consistently ignored opportunities to end the war, balking at the idea of either leaving Hamas' remnants in charge or allowing other Palestinian groups to take over. 'Instead, we are left with only bad options,' said Tzipi Livni, a former Israeli foreign minister. 'Either occupation or chaos, rather than a diplomatic process involving moderate regional and Palestinian stakeholders that could change the reality on the ground for both Palestinians and Israelis.' A similarly aimless dynamic could yet emerge in Iran, analysts said, if the Israeli leadership fails to clearly define its goals there and set an exit strategy. For now, Israeli officials hope the United States will join the attack and help Israel destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities. If the US stays away, and if Iran refuses to stop the enrichment by choice, it is unclear whether Israel's forceful new doctrine will achieve the kind of game-changing outcomes that many Israelis desire. 'One wonders whether effective military performance is matched by a sober political vision,' said Nimrod Novik, a former senior Israeli official and a fellow at Israel Policy Forum, a research group in New York. 'Or, like in Gaza, we are left without an endgame. Time will tell.'

DAN HODGES: Keir Starmer's strange response to Israel's bombing of Iran tells you everything. This is no moment for cowardice
DAN HODGES: Keir Starmer's strange response to Israel's bombing of Iran tells you everything. This is no moment for cowardice

Daily Mail​

time3 days ago

  • Politics
  • Daily Mail​

DAN HODGES: Keir Starmer's strange response to Israel's bombing of Iran tells you everything. This is no moment for cowardice

On October 7 last year, on the first anniversary of the Hamas atrocities, Keir Starmer penned an article expressing his support for . And explicitly, his support in the confrontation with . 'We must also stand with Israel in the face of Iranian aggression,' he wrote. 'Iran's support for terrorism and armed groups across the region has long menaced the Middle East. And its outrageous attack on Israel last week brings us to a dangerous inflection point. A direct Iran-Israel conflict would have devastating consequences for the people of the Middle East and across the world. All sides must do everything in their power to step back from the brink and avert it.'

Hate crime probe into ex-Labour MP dropped in two-tier policing row
Hate crime probe into ex-Labour MP dropped in two-tier policing row

Telegraph

time6 days ago

  • Politics
  • Telegraph

Hate crime probe into ex-Labour MP dropped in two-tier policing row

A fresh two-tier policing row has erupted after a force failed to bring charges against a former Labour MP who said Israel has forfeited any right to exist. Chris Williamson was hugely criticised when he made the comment on X, formerly Twitter, just days after Hamas launched its October 7 attack in 2023. Mr Williamson told his 149,000 followers on X: 'The people of the world now know that Israel has forfeited the right to exist and that resistance to the genocidal Zionist entity is the only option. Yet our political leaders still collaborate with this vile regime. So make them pay at the ballot box.' The former Jeremy Corbyn ally became the subject of a hate crime probe after Derbyshire Police received multiple reports about his comments. Around 18 months later, the force said no action would be taken. The decision has sparked fresh allegations of 'two-tier policing', a term used to describe the potential for different standards of policing based on an individual's background or politics. It contrasts with several other cases that have seen individuals who have made comments on social media calling for violence or destruction face arrest, charges and jail time. Last month, a Jewish protester was arrested and charged by the Metropolitan Police after briefly holding a placard satirising a Hezbollah terrorist leader. Allison Pearson, a columnist at The Telegraph, was questioned by police at home last year following a post on X following pro-Palestine demonstrations. Julian Foulkes, a retired special constable, was wrongly cautioned by Kent Police over a social media post warning about the threat of anti-Semitism in Britain. There is also mounting anger over the case of Lucy Connolly, who was jailed for 31 months for saying hotels housing migrants should be set on fire. Mr Williamson was criticised after refusing to condemn the attacks when he appeared on Radio 4's Today programme after The Workers Party of Britain, of which he is deputy leader, won the Rochdale by-election with George Galloway, the former MP. During his BBC interview, Mr Williamson said: 'You can't expect to live in a situation where people have been oppressed for 75 years and not expect a reaction.' He also claimed that most of those slaughtered on October 7 had been killed by Israeli forces. But the police said they had now completed their enquiries and that no action would be taken. A spokesman for Derbyshire Police said: 'Derbyshire Constabulary recorded a non-crime hate incident in October 2023 after receiving reports about a tweet regarding the Israel/Palestine conflict. 'Enquiries then began to establish if a crime had been committed. 'During the course of these enquiries, which included consultations with the Crown Prosecution Service, officers found that the evidential threshold for a crime to have been committed was not met. 'The incident was subsequently filed with no further action and all relevant parties were informed.' Peter Bleksley, the former Met detective, said: 'This is two-tier policing, plain and simple. One rule for one, one rule for another. 'There is no consistency with these cases and that creates bigger issues for policing as a whole. 'It's a very worrying time.' A Jewish man in Derby, who did not want to be identified, said he was 'appalled' at the comments. He said: 'Police need to make their minds up on what action and direction they are taking.' Mr Williamson, 68, was the former Labour MP for Derby North and the shadow local government minister from 2010 to 2013. He was suspended from Labour in 2019 after he claimed the party had been 'too apologetic' in response to allegations of anti-Semitism. Labour's National Executive Committee blocked Mr Williamson from standing as a Labour candidate in the 2019 general election. He resigned from the Labour Party and stood as an Independent, losing the seat. In July 2023, he joined the Workers Party of Britain.

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