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News18
12-06-2025
- Climate
- News18
Monsoon Arrived 8 Days Early In Kerala, Why Has It Progressed So Slow Since Then?
Last Updated: By early June, the monsoon's pace slackened. Rainfall eased in most southern and northeastern parts of the country. Even flood-affected areas in the Northeast began to dry up. The southwest monsoon, a lifeline for agriculture and water needs, arrived with a bang but has since entered a puzzling pause. When it reached Kerala on May 24, eight days ahead of schedule, it sparked widespread celebration across the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) called it the earliest onset since 2009. Hopes soared as rain lashed southern parts of the country. But now, deep into the second week of June, the monsoon's momentum has mysteriously stalled, leaving much of the country grappling with heat and uncertainty. The monsoon's early entry wasn't just confined to Kerala. It simultaneously swept into Lakshadweep, Mahe, southern Karnataka, parts of Tamil Nadu, and Mizoram, an unusually widespread onset that delighted meteorologists and farmers alike. The last week of May saw intense rainfall in Kerala, with red alerts issued in multiple districts due to flooding and landslides. But by early June, the monsoon's pace slackened. Rainfall eased in most southern and northeastern parts of the country. Even flood-affected areas in the Northeast began to dry up. According to private forecaster Skymet, the monsoon's advancement has hit a temporary wall, particularly in northeastern states. Meteorologists attribute the sluggish progress to a mix of global atmospheric and oceanic shifts. The early burst was helped by favourable conditions like the active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a moving pulse of cloud and rainfall over the tropics, and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The absence of El Nino, a phenomenon that typically suppresses monsoon rains, also worked in the country's favour. But June brought a shift. The MJO lost steam, weakening the systems that propel the monsoon northward. In addition, the seasonal low-pressure area that usually drives the monsoon's inland advance remains south of its expected position, restricting rain to southern coastal regions. Despite the slowdown, the IMD has issued a new round of forecasts that may bring hope. Between June 11 and 17, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected to return to Kerala and Lakshadweep. Wind speeds may reach 60 km/h, and isolated areas could see extreme rain from June 14 to 17. However, the monsoon remains sluggish over Maharashtra, Goa, and much of the Northeast. The early-season flooding in Kerala is giving way to heat and humidity, a pattern mirrored in several parts of the country. Will Monsoon Regain Momentum? The IMD remains optimistic about the broader monsoon season. It has projected overall rainfall at 105% of the long-period average, an encouraging sign for agriculture and the economy. Yet, weather experts caution that early onset does not guarantee a successful or well-distributed monsoon. In 2009, the monsoon had also arrived early, on May 23, but June that year saw a severe 48% rainfall deficit, and August followed with a 27% shortfall. The memory of that anomaly is prompting meteorologists to urge caution amid early excitement. First Published: June 12, 2025, 14:25 IST
Indian Express
01-06-2025
- Climate
- Indian Express
Mumbai city wettest district this season so far, logs 3,025% of actual avg rainfall
With record-shattering downpour sweeping the region in May, Mumbai city district has logged excess rainfall of over 3025 per cent of its actual average rainfall for the season, making it Maharashtra's wettest district until May. Meanwhile, the Santacruz station has recorded an excess rainfall by 1945 per cent. Overall, Maharashtra recorded 'large excess' rainfall by 560 per cent until May. In what made for an unusual summer, heatwaves and above normal temperatures eluded the city in May as it started receiving unseasonal showers, followed by pre-monsoon rain, as early as May 6. After intermittent spells of moderate showers, Mumbai experienced its earliest onset of southwest monsoon in the past 75 years as torrential rainfall battered the city on May 26. Spurred by unseasonal showers and early onset of monsoon, records from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) show that Mumbai city district has recorded 'large excess' in showers by 3,025 percent while the suburban district has recorded above normal rainfall by over 1,945 percent. According to the data, the IMD's Colaba station in island city received 503.2 mm rainfall in May, as against its average of 16.1 mm rain from March to May. Meanwhile, the Santacruz observatory in Mumbai suburbs received 378.4 mm rainfall, marking a significant departure from its actual average of 18.5 mm rain for the period. For the record, this has been the wettest May month ever recorded in Colaba since 1918 while also being Santacruz' rainiest May in the past 25 years. Not just Mumbai, but the entire Maharashtra has recorded an excess of 560 per cent from its actual long-period average (LPA) until May 31. While the state typically receives an average of 26 mm rain during the months of March to May, it has recorded an average of 170.3 mm rainfall until May 31. Besides Konkan region, district-wise rain data from the IMD show that Madhya Maharashtra region has recorded an excess in showers by 457 per cent so far, while Vidarbha belt has registered excess downpour of over 481 per cent. Meanwhile, the region of Marathwada has recorded an excess of 394 per cent so far. Meteorologists have attributed the heavy showers to a combination of favourable factors ranging from an upper-level trough that ushered in heavy rain early in May to a low pressure area which developed into a well-marked LPA in the Arabian Sea after May 20. Furthermore, senior IMD scientists have also pointed to active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as well as the neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions as factors contributing to an early onset. After rainy May, the IMD has said that the city, as well as other parts of the country, will continue to receive 'above normal' rainfall in June. The above normal rain will also usher in a dip in temperatures which are likely to remain in the normal to below normal range across the region. Typically, Mumbai receives an average of 537 millimetres of rainfall in June, during which it experiences monsoon onset. On Sunday, the city and its neighbouring districts woke up to brief spells of moderate showers amid a nowcast warning sounded by the IMD at 10 am, followed by another warning at 1 pm. According to the IMD, the city will continue to experience light to moderate rainfall in the coming days with the showers slated to intensify and be accompanied by thunderstorms, from June 5. While no alerts have been issued for Mumbai, a fresh yellow alert stating the likelihood of 'thunderstorms with moderate rain and gusty winds' has been sounded in Thane for June 5.
