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The Hill
a day ago
- Politics
- The Hill
What is Iran's secretive Fordow site?
Iran's secretive Fordow nuclear site, hidden in a mountain south of the country's capital, has become a focal point in the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, as the U.S. weighs stepping in to help Israel topple Tehran's nuclear capabilities. The Fordow site, formally known in the international community as the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant and in Iran as the Shahid Ali Mohammadi Nuclear Facility, is located under more than 300 feet of rock, necessitating the use of heavy weaponry to strike it. The U.S. has the capability to deploy massive bombs known as bunker busters to hit the facility, but Israel does not. The United Nations's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last verified Fordow's enrichment capabilities on May 28, according to its most recent report on Iran's nuclear activities. An analysis from the independent Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists based on the IAEA report concluded that Iran has enough centrifuges and uranium hexafluoride gas at the site to produce several nuclear weapons. 'They could probably produce enough weapon-grade (90 percent) enriched uranium for one nuclear weapon within five to six days,' the Bulletin reported. The Bulletin's analysis noted that Fordow's underground location means 'it could — in theory — continue to operate even after other nuclear facilities in the country have been destroyed, with its material then fueling nuclear weapons to be produced clandestinely.' 'Fordow is, therefore, a crucially important place if one attempts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons,' the Bulletin's analyst wrote. 'If Israel decides to continue down the military path against Iran's nuclear program, it has no choice but to ensure that the Fordow enrichment plant no longer poses a threat.' Then-President Obama publicly revealed the existence of the Fordow facility in September 2009. 'It was designed and built over the past several years in direct violation of resolutions from the Security Council and from the IAEA,' Obama said at the time, noting that 'the size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful program.' Iran had disclosed its above-ground Natanz enrichment site, but Fordow's existence was a secret. 'Iran's decision to build yet another nuclear facility without notifying the IAEA represents a direct challenge to the basic compact at the center of the non-proliferation regime,' Obama said. The IAEA was granted daily access upon request to monitor the Fordow enrichment facility under the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but President Trump upended the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 during his first administration and Tehran gradually moved away from allowing strict international oversight. Iran removed all of the agency's surveillance and monitoring equipment at Fordow in 2022. Trump's second administration was attempting to hash out a new nuclear agreement with Iran that would prevent it from developing a weapon, but Israel's surprise strikes against Iran last week stopped the ongoing negotiations. Experts also question what Iran would do if Fordow isn't demolished. 'A deal could be constructed that would permit inspectors of the IAEA access to the site, just as was the case until June 13. But Israel's attack has most probably changed Iranian strategic calculus fundamentally,' the Bulletin's analyst wrote. 'Even if there were to be a deal in which Fordow remained in existence as a uranium enrichment site, the risk of an Iranian breakout scenario to produce nuclear weapons is probably greater today than it was a week ago: Iran has been shown that its conventional military cannot deter an Israeli attack, and therefore it is far likelier to have difficulty restocking its missile and other military forces (especially air defense) than Israel will.'
Yahoo
a day ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
How close is Iran to a nuclear bomb?
Iran's nuclear breakout time has become a key question as President Trump considers whether to bomb the Islamic regime's key underground nuclear facility. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in justifying his unprecedented strikes on the regional rival last week, said Iran was 'marching very quickly' toward a nuclear weapon. That seemed to diverge from U.S. assessments — voiced by Director of National Security Tulsi Gabbard in a March congressional hearing — that Iran was not actively building a nuclear weapon. Trump was clear about where he stood when asked Tuesday about Gabbard's testimony. 'I don't care what she said. I think they were very close to having one,' Trump told reporters on Air Force One. Nuclear watchdogs have had limited ability to monitor Iran's stockpiles since Trump withdrew from the Obama-era nuclear deal in 2018. For that reason and others, experts say pinning down a specific nuclear timeline is complicated. 'When people give different estimates of Iran's breakout timeline, I think it's because they're talking about different things,' said Heather Williams, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointing to Gabbard's testimony and Trump's pushback. 'Tulsi Gabbard said there is no evidence that Iran is weaponizing. That can be a true statement at the same time as Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability,' she said. 'If you want to talk about actual weaponization, that is a very specific activity. It involves developing trigger technologies, figuring out how an implosion device works.' Given its current level of enrichment, experts estimate it would take Iran a week or two to produce the weapons-grade uranium needed for a nuclear weapon and another few months to build a crude weapon. Then Iran would need to figure out how to deliver the bomb to Israel, more than 1,000 miles away, either fitting it onto a missile, dropping it from a plane, or smuggling it across the border by land. According to CNN, U.S. officials think Iran is up to three years away from actually launching a nuclear weapon. Andreas Krieg, a lecturer in security studies at King's College London, put that figure closer to 18 months. He said he was skeptical of Israel's claims of a rapidly closing window to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions. 'The assessment of what the Israeli intelligence says, we only have it filtered through the government, and the government obviously has an intention to say 'they're very close,' and hence, this was a preemptive strike rather than an act of aggression,' Krieg said. 'I'm not sure whether the Israeli intelligence service really says this, or if this is the Israeli government abusing or exploiting a narrative,' he added. 'No one has seen that report.' A spokesperson for the Israeli military did not respond to questions about its latest assessments. Israel has pounded Iranian nuclear facilities in the past week, possibly setting back the country's nuclear program by a few months. However, experts say eliminating Iran's near-term nuclear threat requires destroying the Fordow nuclear facility, which is buried in the side of a mountain. Only the U.S. has the 30,000-pound bombs required to penetrate the thick concrete bunker shielding the nuclear centrifuges underground. Trump returned early from the Group of Seven summit in Canada and summoned his national security team to the White House on Tuesday as he considers sending U.S. bombers and pilots to join Israel's war. A day before Israel's strikes, a quarterly report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found that Iran had amassed 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, a stockpile that 'remains a matter of serious concern,' according to the agency tasked with monitoring Tehran's nuclear program. The report was the first time since 2005 that the IAEA board of governors had found Iran in violation of its non-proliferation pledges. 'The first time in 20 years that you find someone to be in breach, it is a big deal and it should be very concerning,' Williams said. Ninety percent enrichment is considered weapons-grade, and experts have said Iran's uranium supply is well above what would be needed for civilian use in a nuclear power plant. The 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration included provisions for Iran to allow the IAEA significant access to its nuclear program, including installing cameras and sensors at nuclear sites. After Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018, the Iranian government has limited inspections and removed cameras at its sites altogether, though the IAEA has been able to retain some investigatory power and access. Since at least 2019, the U.S. has assessed that Iran is not actively pursuing a workable nuclear device. Annual reports from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence typically included the line 'Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.' Last year, American intelligence agencies shifted to say that Iran has 'undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so' but maintained that Iran did not have an active nuclear military program. Before it launched its attacks last week, Israel told the United States that Iran had renewed research efforts useful for a nuclear weapon, including studying an explosive triggering system, The Wall Street Journal reported. But U.S. officials weren't convinced those efforts amounted to a decision by Iran to actually build a weapon. David Des Roches, a professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, said Israeli officials were inclined to be more cautious than their U.S. counterparts when assessing Iran's nuclear threat. 'The Americans are more capable of looking at the capability and saying, 'yes, yes, yes, but,' and then examining intent. I think Israeli strategic culture is fundamentally different,' he said. 'Their culture is preventing annihilation while the world stands by, so their calculus is less accepting of risk.' Gabbard told lawmakers in March that the U.S. had seen a shift in Iranian rhetoric around nuclear weapons. 'In the past year, we've seen an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decisionmaking apparatus,' she said. But she noted Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had not reauthorized Iran's nuclear weapons program suspended in 2003, and she said the U.S. still believed Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon. Krieg argued that any decision made by Iran to begin sprinting toward a nuclear weapon would be known by Western intelligence agencies. 'Looking at how penetrated Iran is right now, we see that the Mossad [Israel's spy agency] has been able to operate with impunity across all levels of the regime,' he said. 'If any of these decisions had been made, it would have come to all our attention.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Hill
How close is Iran to a nuclear bomb?
Iran's nuclear breakout time has become a key question as President Trump considers whether to bomb the Islamic regime's key underground nuclear facility. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in justifying his unprecedented strikes on the regional rival last week, said Iran was 'marching very quickly' toward a nuclear weapon. That seemed to diverge from U.S. assessments – voiced by National Security Director Tulsi Gabbard in a March congressional hearing – that Iran was not actively building a nuclear weapon. Trump was clear about where he stood when asked about Gabbard's testimony on Tuesday. 'I don't care what she said. I think they were very close to having one,' Trump told reporters on Air Force One. Nuclear watchdogs have had limited ability to monitor Iran's stockpiles since Trump withdrew from the Obama-era nuclear deal in 2018. For that reason and others, experts say pinning down a specific nuclear timeline is complicated. 'When people give different estimates of Iran's breakout timeline, I think it's because they're talking about different things,' said Heather Williams, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointing to Gabbard's testimony and Trump's pushback. 'Tulsi Gabbard said there is no evidence that Iran is weaponizing. That can be a true statement at the same time as Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability,' she said. 'If you want to talk about actual weaponization, that is a very specific activity. It involves developing trigger technologies, figuring out how an implosion device works.' Given its current level of enrichment, experts estimate it would take Iran a week or two to produce the weapons-grade uranium needed for a nuclear weapon, and another few months to build a crude weapon. Then Iran would need to figure out how to deliver the bomb to Israel, more than 1,000 miles away, either fitting it onto a missile, dropping it from a plane, or smuggling it across the border by land. According to CNN, U.S. officials think Iran is up to three years away from actually launching a nuclear weapon. Andreas Krieg, a lecturer in security studies at King's College London, put that figure closer to 18 months. He said he was skeptical of Israel's claims of a rapidly closing window to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions. 'The assessment of what the Israeli intelligence says, we only have it filtered through the government, and the government obviously has an intention to say 'they're very close,' and hence, this was a preemptive strike rather than an act of aggression,' Krieg said. 'I'm not sure whether the Israeli intelligence service really says this, or if this is the Israeli government abusing or exploiting a narrative,' he added. 'No one has seen that report.' A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces did not respond to questions about their latest assessments. Israel has pounded Iranian nuclear facilities in the past week, possibly setting back its nuclear program by a few months. However, experts say eliminating Iran's near-term nuclear threat requires destroying the Fordo nuclear facility, which is buried in the side of a mountain. Only the U.S. has the 30,000-pound bombs required to penetrate the thick concrete bunker shielding the nuclear centrifuges underground. President Trump returned early from the G7 Summit in Canada and summoned his national security team to the White House on Tuesday as he considers sending U.S. bombers and pilots to join Israel's war. A day before Israel's strikes, a quarterly report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found that Iran had amassed 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, a stockpile that 'remains a matter of serious concern,' said the agency, tasked with monitoring Tehran's nuclear program. The report was the first time since 2005 that the IAEA Board of Governors had found Iran in violation of its non-proliferation pledges. 'The first time in 20 years that you find someone to be in breach, it is a big deal and it should be very concerning,' said Williams. 90 percent enrichment is considered weapons-grade, and experts have said that Iran's uranium supply is well above what would be needed for civilian use in a nuclear power plant. The 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration included provisions for Iran to allow the IAEA significant access to its nuclear program, including installing cameras and sensors at nuclear sites. After Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018, the Iranian government has limited inspections and removed cameras at its sites altogether, though the IAEA has been able to retain some investigatory power and access. Since at least 2019, the U.S. has assessed that Iran is not actively pursuing a workable nuclear device. Annual reports from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence typically included the line 'Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.' Last year, American intelligence agencies shifted to say that Iran has 'undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so,' but maintained that Iran did not have an active nuclear military program. Before it launched its attacks last week, Israel told the United States that Iran had renewed research efforts useful for a nuclear weapon, including studying an explosive triggering system, the Wall Street Journal reported. But U.S. officials weren't convinced those efforts amounted to a decision by Iran to actually build a weapon. David Des Roches, a professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Security Studies, said Israeli officials were inclined to be more cautious than their U.S. counterparts when assessing Iran's nuclear threat. 'The Americans are more capable of looking at the capability and saying, 'yes, yes, yes, but,' and then examining intent. I think Israeli strategic culture is fundamentally different,' he said. 'Their culture is preventing annihilation while the world stands by, so their calculus is less accepting of risk.' Gabbard told lawmakers in March that the U.S. had seen a shift in Iranian rhetoric around nuclear weapons. 'In the past year, we've seen an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus,' she said. But she noted Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeini had not re-authorized Iran's nuclear weapons program suspended in 2003, and said the U.S. still believed Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon. Krieg argued that any decision made by Iran to begin sprinting towards a nuclear weapon would be known by Western intelligence agencies. 'Looking at how penetrated Iran is right now, we see that the Mossad [Israel's spy agency] has been able to operate with impunity across all levels of the regime,' he said. 'If any of these decisions had been made, it would have come to all our attention.'
Miami Herald
2 days ago
- Politics
- Miami Herald
Israel Struck Centrifuge Sites in Iran: Nuclear Watchdog
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said two centrifuge production facilities in Iran have been struck. Centrifuges are used to enrich uranium. The TESA Karaj workshop and the Tehran Research Center were hit, the IAEA said. Both sites were previously monitored by the IAEA under the Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran. "At the Tehran site, one building was hit where advanced centrifuge rotors were manufactured and tested," the IAEA said. "At Karaj, two buildings were destroyed where different centrifuge components were manufactured." Israel has targeted Iranian military and nuclear sites in several days of strikes. This is a breaking news story. Updates to follow. Related Articles Israel's Missile Defenses Running Short as Iran Fires Hypersonics: ReportSatellite Images Show US Navy Vessels Deploy for Possible Iran AttackMap Shows U.S. Middle East Travel Warnings as Possible Iran War LoomsChina Reacts to Trump Khamenei Threat 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Newsweek
3 days ago
- Science
- Newsweek
Israel Struck Centrifuge Sites in Iran: Nuclear Watchdog
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. 🎙️ Voice is AI-generated. Inconsistencies may occur. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said two centrifuge production facilities in Iran have been struck. Centrifuges are used to enrich uranium. The TESA Karaj workshop and the Tehran Research Center were hit, the IAEA said. Both sites were previously monitored by the IAEA under the Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran. "At the Tehran site, one building was hit where advanced centrifuge rotors were manufactured and tested," the IAEA said. "At Karaj, two buildings were destroyed where different centrifuge components were manufactured." Israel has targeted Iranian military and nuclear sites in several days of strikes. This is a breaking news story. Updates to follow.
