Latest news with #Nuvama
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Business Standard
6 hours ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Rupee rises after three-day slide on likely FII inflows; ends at 86.59/$
The Indian Rupee ended higher on Friday, breaking a three-day losing streak, with US President Donald Trump taking two weeks to decide on potential action against Iran. The domestic currency rose 14 paise to end at 86.59 against the dollar, after closing at 86.73 on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. The currency has fallen 1.17 per cent so far this month. During the session, most Asian currencies inched up, with the Korean won leading gains. The uncertainty around the Iran-Israel conflict continues, with US President Trump delaying the country's response to Iran by two weeks, according to analysts. The White House said Trump still considers negotiations with Iran an option and will decide on supporting Israel within two weeks, leaving investors uncertain. However, Israel said it destroyed nearly half of Iran's missile launchers, adding that its strikes create the conditions for the downfall of the Iranian government. Meanwhile, potential inflows into equities also supported the currency's movement. Friday promises to be an action-packed day with two major semi-annual index rebalances lined up, the Sensex and the FTSE, Nuvama said in a note, anticipating large foreign inflows. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have bought equities worth ₹3308.32 crore over the past three days. Most of the selling pressure has been in the mid- and small-cap segments, while broader indices have remained stable despite geopolitical tensions, according to Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. "Inflows are expected this week and next, especially with the upcoming HDB Financial Services IPO." Rupee traded positively, supported by softer crude oil prices and a weaker dollar index, according to Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities. Continued foreign and domestic inflows into Indian markets have helped limit the rupee's downside despite ongoing geopolitical tensions over the past few months, he said. "The rupee is expected to trade in a range of 86.00 to 86.85."
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Business Standard
9 hours ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Trent, BEL to see $700 million inflows on Sensex rejig; VMM tops FTSE flows
Trent and BEL's entry into the BSE Sensex may drive $708 million in passive inflows, while Nestle and IndusInd Bank face outflows following their exclusion, per Nuvama estimates Sai Aravindh Mumbai The inclusion of Tata Group-owned Trent Ltd and Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) in the benchmark 30-stock BSE Sensex index will likely result in an inflow of $708 million. Trent is expected to see an inflow of $330 million, while the aerospace and defence electronics company BEL could see $378 million in inflows, according to Nuvama Alternative estimates. However, Nestle and IndusInd Bank are likely to see outflows of $230 million and $145 million, given that they were excluded from the Sensex gauge in the latest index rebalancing. Friday promises to be an action-packed day with two major semi-annual index rebalances lined up, Sensex and FTSE, Nuvama said in a note. "Historically, Sensex inclusions tend to see intraday upmoves, supported by stronger volumes, and a similar trend could play out this time as well." Catch Stock Market LIVE Updates Today During the day, the Sensex index rose as much as 1.01 per cent, or 824.5 points, to 82,186, while the Nifty50 index rose 1 per cent, or 247 points, to 25,040. Further, UltraTech Cement is expected to see an inflow of $4 million after its weights were increased, while HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Larsen & Toubro, ITC, TCS, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India are likely to see outflows after their weights were reduced. These changes will take effect from the start of trading on June 23, 2025. 'Index rejigs are a key event for the market because they help the market participants gauge the direction in which the funds are moving,' the BSE noted earlier. These periodic updates help ensure the index continues to represent India's evolving market trends. FTSE rejig The changes in the London-based Financial Times Stock Exchange index are likely to result in an inflow of $150 million into the domestic market, as per Nuvama's 'best-effort' estimates. The inflows are largely driven by the inclusion of Vishal Mega Mart, which is expected to see about $115 million, as per the brokerage. In addition to that, Hyundai Motor, Waaree Energies, Swiggy, NTPC Green Energy, Onesource Specialty Pharma, Afcons Infrastructure, Sai Life Science, and Inventurus Knowledge Solutions are expected to see inflows given their additions to the FTSE key index. Siemens Energy to exit from MSCI Global Standard Index Nuvama also noted that the shares of Siemens Energy will be deleted from the MSCI Global Standard Index after it was demerged from Siemens India. The estimated passive outflow is approximately $210 million, translating to around 7 million shares, the brokerage said. Siemens demerged on April 7, 2025 and Siemens ex-Energy price opened at ₹2,450 and implied ₹2,478 share value for the Siemens Energy India entity.
Business Upturn
13 hours ago
- Business
- Business Upturn
Nuvama bullish on Aurobindo Pharma, sees 15% profit CAGR through FY27
By Markets Desk Published on June 20, 2025, 07:30 IST Nuvama Institutional Equities has reiterated a 'Buy' call on Aurobindo Pharma, with a target price of ₹1,460, as it sees the stock poised for a strong recovery led by new product launches, capacity expansions, and normalization of regulatory and operational issues. The brokerage notes that Aurobindo has invested over ₹10,000 crore in recent years toward growth-oriented assets including its Pen-G API facility, injectable plants, and biologics and peptide capabilities. While these investments have temporarily diluted return ratios, Nuvama believes they position the company strongly for medium- to long-term growth, especially in high-margin, non-oral dosage categories. Key triggers that could unlock value in FY26–27 include: Resumption of production at its Pen-G unit , which could improve vertical integration and cost competitiveness. New launches in Europe from the company's Chinese facility. Ramp-up of injectables business through the Eugia-5 plant and normalization of supply issues from Eugia-3. Volume growth in oral solids, which continue to be the company's bread and butter in regulated markets like the US. Nuvama is building in a revenue CAGR of 7%, EBITDA CAGR of 8%, and PAT CAGR of 15% over FY25–27. Despite the recent recovery in pharma stocks, Aurobindo continues to trade at 13.9x FY27E EPS, which represents a 16% discount to its 5-year historical average valuation. This makes the stock attractive not only from a growth and margin recovery standpoint but also on relative valuation terms, especially considering that many of its operational headwinds now appear to be easing. Aurobindo has also stepped up its focus on specialty and complex generics, including biosimilars, peptides, and depot injections, which can provide earnings durability beyond FY27. The company's recent USFDA approvals and steady ANDA filings also indicate improving regulatory momentum. Nuvama's thesis remains that execution of these strategic pivots—especially monetization of recent capex—could drive a meaningful re-rating of the stock over the next 6–8 quarters. Ahmedabad Plane Crash Markets Desk at
India Gazette
a day ago
- Business
- India Gazette
Surge in oil prices amid middle east tensions poses fresh challenges for Indian airlines: Report
New Delhi [India], Jun 19 (ANI): Indian airlines are facing renewed pressure on profitability as escalating tensions in the Middle East threaten to push global crude oil prices to USD 100 per barrel, according to a report by Nuvama. The report highlighted that the geopolitical rift, particularly the Israel-Iran standoff, could potentially lead to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil supply route responsible for about 15 per cent of total oil shipments. Even a perceived 30 per cent risk of closure has already nudged oil prices closer to USD 85 per barrel, and further escalation could push it to USD 100. It stated, 'Geopolitical headwind for Indian carriers... The Israel-Iran tensions could cause oil prices to spike USD100/bbl due to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz' For Indian carriers, which operate on tight margins, the report stated that this development is especially concerning. The report highlighted that historical data reveal that IndiGo, India's largest airline by market share, has struggled to pass on the burden of higher fuel costs to passengers. Its EBITDAR margin has typically dropped during prolonged oil price spikes. As per the sensitivity analysis in the report, a USD 10 per barrel rise in oil prices could dent IndiGo's estimated FY26 EBITDAR by 17 per cent. In addition to the crude oil impact, ongoing airspace restrictions due to tensions between India and Pakistan are compounding challenges for Indian airlines. Since the end of April, both nations have restricted access to each other's airspace. These restrictions disproportionately affect Indian carriers, as foreign airlines continue to operate through the region without rerouting, thereby placing domestic operators at a competitive disadvantage. The report added 'The issue is further exacerbated at a time where Indian carriers have been consistently gaining market share from foreign carriers in recent years'. Overall, the backdrop of rising oil prices and regional instability may weigh on future profitability and expansion plans of Indian airlines. (ANI)
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Business Standard
a day ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Air space closure, high oil price: How to trade IndiGo, SpiceJet shares?
Nuvama on IndiGo, SpiceJet: Domestic brokerage Nuvama has maintained its 'Hold' rating on IndiGo and SpiceJet, citing heightened geopolitical risks amid the escalating Israel-Iran conflict and elevated stock valuations, despite strong growth in scheduled flights for Q1FY26E. On the bourses, around 1:00 PM, SpiceJet shares were trading 5.13 per cent lower at ₹39.99 per share, while IndiGo shares were trading 0.28 per cent lower at ₹5,257.95 apiece. In comparison, BSE Sensex was trading flat with a negative bias at 81,415.18 levels. In the past one month, SpiceJet shares have tanked over 11 per cent, while IndiGo shares have plunged over 5 per cent. The brokerage flagged key concerns, notably the potential impact of Israel-Iran tensions on global oil prices. A possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 15 per cent of global oil supply passes—could spike crude prices to $100 per bbl. 'Even if the market sees only a 30 per cent risk of closure, that can still be enough to fuel prices towards $85 per bbl in the near-term,' said Jal Irani, Tanay Kotecha, Akshay Mane, analysts at Nuvama, in a note dated June 18. Historically, IndiGo has struggled to fully pass on rising fuel costs, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortisation, and rent (or restructuring) (Ebitdar) margins falling during sustained fuel price increases. Nuvama estimated that every $10 per bbl rise in oil prices could dent IndiGo's FY26E Ebitdar by 17 per cent, though a partial pass-through remains possible. Adding to the pressure is the ongoing airspace restriction between India and Pakistan since end-April, Nuvama said. While the direct Ebitdar impact on IndiGo is pegged at 1–3 per cent for FY26E, Nuvama warns of a higher strategic cost. The limitation, analysts said, may disrupt IndiGo's targeted 30 per cent annual growth in international passenger traffic, which is critical to its goal of raising the international ASKM mix to 40 per cent by 2030 from the current approximately 30 per cent. A ray of hope Despite these headwinds, operational metrics remain healthy. Total scheduled flights for Q1FY26E are estimated at about 346,000, implying a Y-o-Y growth of 11 per cent, driven by an 8 per cent rise in domestic and a strong 27 per cent increase in international flights. IndiGo is projected to grow in line with the industry—scheduled flights up 11 per cent Y-o-Y, with domestic flights rising 9 per cent and international flights by nearly one-third. The airline's domestic market share is expected to hover around 64 per cent, as reported in April 2025. In April 2025, industry Available Seat Kilometres (ASKM) rose 11 per cent Y-o-Y, slightly outpacing passenger (PAX) growth of 10 per cent, which led to a 67 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y dip in the industry's Passenger Load Factor (PLF). IndiGo, however, outperformed peers with a 16 per cent Y-o-Y increase in PAX, a passenger load factor (PLF) of 87 per cent versus the industry average of 86 per cent, and a 14 per cent Y-o-Y ASKM growth versus the sector's 11 per cent. IndiGo's domestic market share rose 338 bps Y-o-Y to 64 per cent, supported by stronger PLF and capacity gains. Given these mixed signals—solid operational performance offset by geopolitical and cost challenges—Nuvama has maintained a cautious stance and retained its 'Hold' recommendation on both carriers.
