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Dollar floored as investors seek that extra hedge
Dollar floored as investors seek that extra hedge

The Star

time11-06-2025

  • Business
  • The Star

Dollar floored as investors seek that extra hedge

ALL three major US asset classes – stocks, bonds and the currency – have had a turbulent 2025 thus far, but only one has failed to weather the storm: the dollar. Hedging may be a major reason why Wall Street's three main indices and the ICE BofA US Treasury index are all slightly higher for the year to date, despite the post-'Liberation Day' volatility, while the dollar has steadily ground lower, losing around 10% of its value against a basket of major currencies and breaking long-standing correlations along the way. The dollar was perhaps primed for a fall. It's easy to forget, but only a few months ago the 'US exceptionalism' narrative was alive and well, and the dollar scaling heights rarely seen in the past two decades. But that narrative has evaporated, as US President Donald Trump's controversial economic policies and isolationist posture on the global stage have made investors reconsider their exposure to US assets. But why is the dollar feeling the burn more than stocks or bonds? Pension fund-amentals Non-US investors often protect themselves against sharp currency fluctuations via the forward, futures or options markets. The difference now is that the risk premium being built into US assets is pushing them – especially equity holders – to hedge their dollar exposure more than they have in the past. Foreign investors have long hedged their bond exposure, with dollar hedge ratios traditionally around 70% to 100%, according to Morgan Stanley, as currency moves can easily wipe out modest bond returns. But non-US equity investors have been much more loath to pay for protection, with dollar hedge ratios averaging between 10% and 30%. This is partly because the dollar was traditionally seen as a 'natural' hedge against stock market exposure, as it would typically rise in 'risk off' periods when stocks fell. The dollar would also normally appreciate when the United States economy and markets were thriving – the so-called 'Dollar Smile' – giving an additional boost to US equity returns in good times. A good barometer of global 'real money' investors' view on the dollar is how willing foreign pension and insurance funds are to hedge their dollar-denominated assets. Recent data on Danish funds' currency hedging is revealing. Danish funds' US asset hedge ratio surged to around 75% from around 65% between February and April. According to Deutsche Bank analysts, that 10 percentage point rise is the largest two-month increase in over a decade. Anecdotal evidence suggests similar shifts are taking place across Scandinavia, the eurozone and Canada, regions where dollar exposure is also high. The US$266bil Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan reported a US$6.9bil foreign currency gain last year, mainly due to the stronger dollar. Unless the fund has increased its hedging ratio this year, it will be sitting on huge foreign currency losses. 'Investors had embraced US exceptionalism and were overweight US assets. But now, investors are increasing their hedging,' says Sophia Drossos, economist and strategist at the hedge fund Point72. And there is a lot of dollar exposure to hedge. At the end of March foreign investors held US$33 trillion of US securities, with US$18.4 trillion in equities and US$14.6 trillion in debt instruments. Riding out the storm The dollar's malaise has upended its traditional relationships with stocks and bonds. Its generally negative correlation with stocks has reversed, as has the usually positive correlation with bonds. The divergence with Treasuries has gained more attention, with the dollar diving as yields have risen. But as Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos notes, the correlation breakdown with stocks is 'very unusual'. When Wall Street has fallen this year the dollar has fallen too, but at a much faster pace. And when Wall Street has risen the dollar has also bounced, but only slightly. This has led to the strongest positive correlation between the dollar and S&P 500 in years, though that's a bit deceptive, as the dollar is sharply down on the year while stocks are mildly stronger. Of course, what we could be seeing is simply a rebalancing. Saravelos estimates that global fixed income and equity managers' dollar exposure was at near record-high levels in the run-up to the recent trade war. This was a 'cyclical' phenomenon over the last couple of years rather than a deep-rooted structural one based on fundamentals, meaning it could be reversed relatively quickly. But, regardless, the dollar's hedging headwind seems likely to persist. 'Given the size of foreign holdings of both stocks and bonds, even a modest uptick in hedge ratios could prove a considerable foreign exchange flow,' Morgan Stanley's foreign exchange strategy team wrote last month. 'As long as uncertainty and volatility persist, we think that hedge ratios are likely to rise as investors ride out the storm.' — Reuters Jamie McGeever is a columnist for Reuters. The views expressed here are the writer's own.

Investors Turn to Defined Outcome ETFs Amid Market Turmoil
Investors Turn to Defined Outcome ETFs Amid Market Turmoil

Yahoo

time04-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Investors Turn to Defined Outcome ETFs Amid Market Turmoil

It's always good to have a buffer zone. Defined outcome ETFs, characterized by their caps on gains and limits on losses, are becoming important investment tools for advisors looking to mitigate the impact of market downturns on their clients' portfolios. Since its inception in 2018, the defined outcome ETF market has grown to more than $60 billion, despite the product's increased complexity, and the fact that many advisors don't fully understand how the funds work. Still, the US defined outcome market is expected to expand to $650 billion by 2030, according to recent research from BlackRock and Morningstar in December. READ ALSO: Racing to Keep Up With Dual Share Class Applications and Not Taking Single-Stock ETFs for Granite A reason for the recent uptick in popularity is that defined outcome ETFs can be used as alternatives to the standard 60/40 portfolio, according to panelists at ETF Global's annual ETP Forum in New York City. Newer generations of advisors and their clients are also increasingly likely to use buffer ETFs as part of their more modernized portfolio strategies. The BlackRock study found that since 2019, nearly 500 defined outcome ETFs have launched, a trend driven by 'policy and macroeconomic uncertainty, higher market volatility, and demographic shifts, such as the increasing number of retirees globally.' The research also found: Less than 1% of advisors were using outcome ETFs in 2019, compared to more than 10% now. Allocations to the product have also risen 5 percentage points over the past five years. Still, nearly 90% of advisors don't currently use them, according to data that the asset management firm gathered on more than 22,000 advisor models. International Affairs. There's also the importance of international diversification, particularly following President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs and the market turmoil that followed, the experts said. Non-US investing has surged with emerging market investments — and allocations in markets like China — taking the place of more standard S&P 500 products. And while defined outcome ETFs have traditionally been regarded as 'competing' with their traditional counterparts, the two can actually end up complementing each other, they added. This post first appeared on The Daily Upside. To receive exclusive news and analysis of the rapidly evolving ETF landscape, built for advisors and capital allocators, subscribe to our free ETF Upside newsletter. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

How the US market fell from 4th to 41st for returns – and what it means for stocks in 2025
How the US market fell from 4th to 41st for returns – and what it means for stocks in 2025

Business Times

time01-06-2025

  • Business
  • Business Times

How the US market fell from 4th to 41st for returns – and what it means for stocks in 2025

NEARLY two months after US President Donald Trump roiled markets with his on-again, off-again 'reciprocal' tariffs and universal 10 per cent levy, uncertainty remains. My last column showed the illogic underpinning this – and counselled patience. Here is an update – and how to profit. Trump says America 'wins' through his tariffs, reclaiming 'lost' manufacturing jobs and cutting the trade deficit. No. Tariffs always hammer most the one who imposes them. Don't take my word for it. Look to the markets. For any good capitalist, this is step one. Markets are a lie detector, weighing talk, forecasts and opinions – and rendering verdicts. Non-US stocks were up 8.8 per cent this year to May 22. The Straits Times Index gained 4.9 per cent, a hair's breadth from all-time highs. China? Up 10 per cent. European stocks rose 13.7 per cent. Mexico, up 20.7 per cent. US stocks? Down 5.5 per cent – a striking lag. If we look at it another way: Of the 47 MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) nations, America was 41st in the ranking of countries by their year-to-date returns as at May 22. In the same period last year, America was fourth – with its 28.8 per cent return fully seven percentage points ahead of the ACWI. Why did US stocks go from No 4 to 41? The answer is No 47; the 47th president, that is. Trump's vacillations make funds flee America. Markets know that attempts to reduce the trade deficit are senseless. A trade deficit means a capital account surplus by definition – that capital is foreign investment in the US. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Why would reversing that be desirable? Why would the government intervening to favour American firms, instead of letting free markets sort out the most efficient use of capital, be considered positive? Why would policy that seemingly changes on a whim be considered good? Stocks are seeing through the smoke and mirrors. America's lag tells you those things are bad, not good. My last column noted how Trump justified his 90-day reciprocal tariff pause on Apr 9 on the grounds that some 75 nations sought deals. Many claimed that this revealed Trump's true aim. The president's fans could say that tariffs, confusion and uncertainty are solely a leverage to strike a flurry of deals – delivering even freer trade. However, the markets are looking at reality, not armchair psychobabble. Deals to make more deals Since Apr 9, just two tariff 'deals' have emerged – one with Britain and one with China. Both are fluff. Britain's is a one-year, non-binding agreement to mitigate tariffs until a full trade deal happens. A deal to make a deal. It affects only a handful of industries. Crucially, the 10 per cent universal levy remains on most UK goods, just like for those from Singapore. America's China deal looks bigger, but only because the bar was incredibly low. Yes, it cut 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods to 30 per cent, while China dropped retaliatory levies from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. However, the 'deal' lasts only 90 days and effectively just buys time. Another deal to make a deal. Plus, tariffs on China remain 30 percentage points higher than in January. Both countries are worse off, but especially America. Who wins from this? Maybe Singapore, via re-exporting. On May 16, Trump flip-flopped again. Boasting that 150 nations now seek 'deals', he said that there isn't time to negotiate them all. His 'solution'? Telling nations what rates they will pay – and offering chances to appeal. Didn't he already do that on 'Liberation Day' on Apr 2? How will it work? Will rates be higher, lower or the same as those on Apr 2? He did not say, further fanning uncertainty. Then, days later, he threatened the European Union with new 50 per cent tariffs – and 25 per cent on Apple products. More uncertainty. Meanwhile, legal challenges to Trump's tariffs progress. Maybe real deals will come that will actually lower trade barriers and uncertainty – a huge potential upside. Then again, maybe not. But as my last column said, even if all tariffs return, the pain will be less than feared – which will be bullish for markets. Importers can readily skirt America's understaffed, overwhelmed tariff-collecting Customs and Border Protection staff via both illegal and legal means. The latter include 'tariff splitting' – stripping out services-related costs such as marketing to reduce goods' values – or storing imports in bonded warehouses. Or, shipping in goods that are valued to be under US$800. And myriad illegal ways such as misclassifying and undervaluing goods. Or, as mentioned, exporters can 'tranship' or re-export via lower-tariff nations – such as Singapore. This is why China's April exports didn't tank despite shipments to America tumbling 21 per cent. South-east Asia gobbled up the difference – and shipped them on. It drove Singapore's huge, 113 per cent year-on-year spike in April re-exports to America. Vietnam and Taiwan are seeing similar surges. Shippers could further tap Canada or Mexico, gaming the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement's tariff exemption. Hence, while April's total tariff collections rose, they missed administration forecasts by 75 per cent. That will persist. Happily, fear exceeds the negative effects, especially outside America. For investors, that is a recipe for a bull market – with non-US stocks continuing to lead. The writer is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, an independent investment adviser serving both individual and institutional investors globally

US Ruling That Trump Tariffs Are Unlawful Stirs Relief and Uncertainty
US Ruling That Trump Tariffs Are Unlawful Stirs Relief and Uncertainty

Business of Fashion

time29-05-2025

  • Business
  • Business of Fashion

US Ruling That Trump Tariffs Are Unlawful Stirs Relief and Uncertainty

A US trade court ruling that blocked most of President Donald Trump's tariffs and found he had overstepped his authority triggered some relief on financial markets on Thursday, while adding to the uncertainties weighing on the global economy. Among the United States' big trading partners, in the throes of negotiation with the Trump administration, Germany said it could not comment, as did the European Commission. 'We ask for your understanding that we cannot comment on the legal proceedings in the US, as they are still ongoing,' a spokesperson for Germany's economy ministry said. 'We continue to hope that a mutually beneficial solution can be reached in the negotiations between the EU Commission and the US government.' ADVERTISEMENT Winners on financial markets included chip makers, banks, luxury stocks and auto industry, all hit hard by tariff-led disruptions. The US dollar rallied 0.2 percent against the yen and 0.3 percent against the Swiss franc as currencies and assets that have benefited from the tariff-induced market turmoil fell. Wall Street stock index futures rose by more than 1.5 percent The trade court ruling on Wednesday dealt a blow to Trump's central policy of using tariffs to wring concessions from trading partners. His administration immediately said it will appeal and analysts said investors will remain cautious as the White House explores its legal avenues. Following a market revolt after Trump's major tariff announcement on April 2, the US president paused most import duties for 90 days and said he would hammer out bilateral deals with trade partners. But apart from a pact with Britain this month, agreements remain elusive and the court's stay on the tariffs may dissuade countries like Japan from rushing into deals, analysts said. Another pause in Trump's stop-start trade policy could be helpful to opponents of his tariffs and to traders who relish volatility. ADVERTISEMENT 'Assuming that an appeal does not succeed in the next few days, the main win is time to prepare, and also a cap on the breadth of tariffs – which can't exceed 15 percent for the time being,' George Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars international advisers, said. Turmoil Trump's trade war has shaken makers of everything from luxury handbags and trainers to household appliances and cars as the price of raw materials has risen, supply chains have been disrupted and company strategies redrafted. Drinks company Diageo, automakers General Motors and Ford are among those who have abandoned forecasts for the year ahead. Non-US companies including Honda, Campari and pharmaceutical companies Roche and Novartis have said they are considering moving operations or expanding their US presence to mitigate the impact of tariffs. As markets assessed the latest twist in the trade upheaval, European export-sensitive sectors, such as autos and luxury stocks, were among leading gainers on Thursday. The pan-continental STOXX 600 was up 0.4 percent, while France's CAC 40, which has a heavy weighting of luxury and bank stocks, rose 0.8 percent. Overall sentiment was also lifted by strong results late on Wednesday from AI bellwether Nvidia. Spot gold declined for a fourth straight day, while US Treasury yields rose. Bond yields move inversely with prices. But the gains in shares may be short-lived, analysts said, with those who relish risk making the most of them. ADVERTISEMENT 'I think we are in a period of higher volatility - we will get some more spikes on the way, I think. But volatility is the friend of the active investors,' Kevin Barker, global head of active equities, UBS Asset Management, told a media briefing. By Sarah Marsh, Samuel Indyk Learn more: Trump Tariffs Hit European Luxury, Shares Tank LVMH and Hermès stock fell about 3 percent and 4 percent respectively, in line with sector peers including Kering, Prada and Burberry, after the US president announced a 50 percent duty on imports from the European Union.

Trump tariff court setback stirs relief and uncertainty
Trump tariff court setback stirs relief and uncertainty

The Advertiser

time29-05-2025

  • Business
  • The Advertiser

Trump tariff court setback stirs relief and uncertainty

A US trade court ruling that blocked most of President Donald Trump's tariffs and found he had overstepped his authority has triggered some relief on financial markets, while adding to the uncertainties weighing on the global economy. Among the United States' big trading partners, in the throes of negotiation with the Trump administration, Germany said it could not comment, as did the European Commission. "We ask for your understanding that we cannot comment on the legal proceedings in the US, as they are still ongoing," a spokesperson for Germany's economy ministry said on Thursday. "We continue to hope that a mutually beneficial solution can be reached in the negotiations between the EU Commission and the US government." Winners on financial markets included chipmakers, banks, luxury stocks and the auto industry, all hit hard by tariff-led disruptions. The US dollar rallied 0.2 per cent against the yen and 0.3 per cent against the Swiss franc as currencies and assets that have benefited from the tariff-induced market turmoil fell. Wall Street stock index futures rose by more than 1.5 per cent. The trade court ruling on Wednesday dealt a blow to Trump's central policy of using tariffs to wring concessions from trading partners. His administration immediately said it will appeal and analysts said investors will remain cautious as the White House explores its legal avenues. Following a market revolt after Trump's major tariff announcement on April 2, the US president paused most import duties for 90 days and said he would hammer out bilateral deals with trade partners. But apart from a pact with Britain earlier in May, agreements remain elusive and the court's stay on the tariffs may dissuade countries like Japan from rushing into deals, analysts said. Another pause in Trump's stop-start trade policy could be helpful to opponents of his tariffs and to traders who relish volatility. "Assuming that an appeal does not succeed in the next few days, the main win is time to prepare, and also a cap on the breadth of tariffs - which can't exceed 15 per cent for the time being," said George Lagarias, chief economist at international advisers Forvis Mazars. Trump's trade war has shaken makers of everything from luxury handbags and trainers to household appliances and cars as the price of raw materials has risen, supply chains have been disrupted and company strategies redrafted. Drinks company Diageo and automakers General Motors and Ford are among those who have abandoned forecasts for the year ahead. Non-US companies including Honda, Campari and pharmaceutical companies Roche and Novartis have said they are considering moving operations or expanding their US presence to mitigate the impact of tariffs. As markets assessed the latest twist in the trade upheaval, European export-sensitive sectors such as autos and luxury stocks were among leading gainers on Thursday. Overall sentiment was also lifted by strong results late on Wednesday from AI bellwether Nvidia. Spot gold declined for a fourth straight day, while US Treasury yields rose. Bond yields move inversely with prices. But the gains in shares may be short-lived, analysts said, with those who relish risk making the most of them. "I think we are in a period of higher volatility - we will get some more spikes on the way, I think. But volatility is the friend of the active investors," Kevin Barker, global head of active equities, UBS Asset Management, told a media briefing. A US trade court ruling that blocked most of President Donald Trump's tariffs and found he had overstepped his authority has triggered some relief on financial markets, while adding to the uncertainties weighing on the global economy. Among the United States' big trading partners, in the throes of negotiation with the Trump administration, Germany said it could not comment, as did the European Commission. "We ask for your understanding that we cannot comment on the legal proceedings in the US, as they are still ongoing," a spokesperson for Germany's economy ministry said on Thursday. "We continue to hope that a mutually beneficial solution can be reached in the negotiations between the EU Commission and the US government." Winners on financial markets included chipmakers, banks, luxury stocks and the auto industry, all hit hard by tariff-led disruptions. The US dollar rallied 0.2 per cent against the yen and 0.3 per cent against the Swiss franc as currencies and assets that have benefited from the tariff-induced market turmoil fell. Wall Street stock index futures rose by more than 1.5 per cent. The trade court ruling on Wednesday dealt a blow to Trump's central policy of using tariffs to wring concessions from trading partners. His administration immediately said it will appeal and analysts said investors will remain cautious as the White House explores its legal avenues. Following a market revolt after Trump's major tariff announcement on April 2, the US president paused most import duties for 90 days and said he would hammer out bilateral deals with trade partners. But apart from a pact with Britain earlier in May, agreements remain elusive and the court's stay on the tariffs may dissuade countries like Japan from rushing into deals, analysts said. Another pause in Trump's stop-start trade policy could be helpful to opponents of his tariffs and to traders who relish volatility. "Assuming that an appeal does not succeed in the next few days, the main win is time to prepare, and also a cap on the breadth of tariffs - which can't exceed 15 per cent for the time being," said George Lagarias, chief economist at international advisers Forvis Mazars. Trump's trade war has shaken makers of everything from luxury handbags and trainers to household appliances and cars as the price of raw materials has risen, supply chains have been disrupted and company strategies redrafted. Drinks company Diageo and automakers General Motors and Ford are among those who have abandoned forecasts for the year ahead. Non-US companies including Honda, Campari and pharmaceutical companies Roche and Novartis have said they are considering moving operations or expanding their US presence to mitigate the impact of tariffs. As markets assessed the latest twist in the trade upheaval, European export-sensitive sectors such as autos and luxury stocks were among leading gainers on Thursday. Overall sentiment was also lifted by strong results late on Wednesday from AI bellwether Nvidia. Spot gold declined for a fourth straight day, while US Treasury yields rose. Bond yields move inversely with prices. But the gains in shares may be short-lived, analysts said, with those who relish risk making the most of them. "I think we are in a period of higher volatility - we will get some more spikes on the way, I think. But volatility is the friend of the active investors," Kevin Barker, global head of active equities, UBS Asset Management, told a media briefing. A US trade court ruling that blocked most of President Donald Trump's tariffs and found he had overstepped his authority has triggered some relief on financial markets, while adding to the uncertainties weighing on the global economy. Among the United States' big trading partners, in the throes of negotiation with the Trump administration, Germany said it could not comment, as did the European Commission. "We ask for your understanding that we cannot comment on the legal proceedings in the US, as they are still ongoing," a spokesperson for Germany's economy ministry said on Thursday. "We continue to hope that a mutually beneficial solution can be reached in the negotiations between the EU Commission and the US government." Winners on financial markets included chipmakers, banks, luxury stocks and the auto industry, all hit hard by tariff-led disruptions. The US dollar rallied 0.2 per cent against the yen and 0.3 per cent against the Swiss franc as currencies and assets that have benefited from the tariff-induced market turmoil fell. Wall Street stock index futures rose by more than 1.5 per cent. The trade court ruling on Wednesday dealt a blow to Trump's central policy of using tariffs to wring concessions from trading partners. His administration immediately said it will appeal and analysts said investors will remain cautious as the White House explores its legal avenues. Following a market revolt after Trump's major tariff announcement on April 2, the US president paused most import duties for 90 days and said he would hammer out bilateral deals with trade partners. But apart from a pact with Britain earlier in May, agreements remain elusive and the court's stay on the tariffs may dissuade countries like Japan from rushing into deals, analysts said. Another pause in Trump's stop-start trade policy could be helpful to opponents of his tariffs and to traders who relish volatility. "Assuming that an appeal does not succeed in the next few days, the main win is time to prepare, and also a cap on the breadth of tariffs - which can't exceed 15 per cent for the time being," said George Lagarias, chief economist at international advisers Forvis Mazars. Trump's trade war has shaken makers of everything from luxury handbags and trainers to household appliances and cars as the price of raw materials has risen, supply chains have been disrupted and company strategies redrafted. Drinks company Diageo and automakers General Motors and Ford are among those who have abandoned forecasts for the year ahead. Non-US companies including Honda, Campari and pharmaceutical companies Roche and Novartis have said they are considering moving operations or expanding their US presence to mitigate the impact of tariffs. As markets assessed the latest twist in the trade upheaval, European export-sensitive sectors such as autos and luxury stocks were among leading gainers on Thursday. Overall sentiment was also lifted by strong results late on Wednesday from AI bellwether Nvidia. Spot gold declined for a fourth straight day, while US Treasury yields rose. Bond yields move inversely with prices. But the gains in shares may be short-lived, analysts said, with those who relish risk making the most of them. "I think we are in a period of higher volatility - we will get some more spikes on the way, I think. But volatility is the friend of the active investors," Kevin Barker, global head of active equities, UBS Asset Management, told a media briefing. A US trade court ruling that blocked most of President Donald Trump's tariffs and found he had overstepped his authority has triggered some relief on financial markets, while adding to the uncertainties weighing on the global economy. Among the United States' big trading partners, in the throes of negotiation with the Trump administration, Germany said it could not comment, as did the European Commission. "We ask for your understanding that we cannot comment on the legal proceedings in the US, as they are still ongoing," a spokesperson for Germany's economy ministry said on Thursday. "We continue to hope that a mutually beneficial solution can be reached in the negotiations between the EU Commission and the US government." Winners on financial markets included chipmakers, banks, luxury stocks and the auto industry, all hit hard by tariff-led disruptions. The US dollar rallied 0.2 per cent against the yen and 0.3 per cent against the Swiss franc as currencies and assets that have benefited from the tariff-induced market turmoil fell. Wall Street stock index futures rose by more than 1.5 per cent. The trade court ruling on Wednesday dealt a blow to Trump's central policy of using tariffs to wring concessions from trading partners. His administration immediately said it will appeal and analysts said investors will remain cautious as the White House explores its legal avenues. Following a market revolt after Trump's major tariff announcement on April 2, the US president paused most import duties for 90 days and said he would hammer out bilateral deals with trade partners. But apart from a pact with Britain earlier in May, agreements remain elusive and the court's stay on the tariffs may dissuade countries like Japan from rushing into deals, analysts said. Another pause in Trump's stop-start trade policy could be helpful to opponents of his tariffs and to traders who relish volatility. "Assuming that an appeal does not succeed in the next few days, the main win is time to prepare, and also a cap on the breadth of tariffs - which can't exceed 15 per cent for the time being," said George Lagarias, chief economist at international advisers Forvis Mazars. Trump's trade war has shaken makers of everything from luxury handbags and trainers to household appliances and cars as the price of raw materials has risen, supply chains have been disrupted and company strategies redrafted. Drinks company Diageo and automakers General Motors and Ford are among those who have abandoned forecasts for the year ahead. Non-US companies including Honda, Campari and pharmaceutical companies Roche and Novartis have said they are considering moving operations or expanding their US presence to mitigate the impact of tariffs. As markets assessed the latest twist in the trade upheaval, European export-sensitive sectors such as autos and luxury stocks were among leading gainers on Thursday. Overall sentiment was also lifted by strong results late on Wednesday from AI bellwether Nvidia. Spot gold declined for a fourth straight day, while US Treasury yields rose. Bond yields move inversely with prices. But the gains in shares may be short-lived, analysts said, with those who relish risk making the most of them. "I think we are in a period of higher volatility - we will get some more spikes on the way, I think. But volatility is the friend of the active investors," Kevin Barker, global head of active equities, UBS Asset Management, told a media briefing.

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