Latest news with #NitinAggarwal
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Indian Banks' earnings growth forecast halved amid economic caution and high deposit costs
Mumbai: The pace of earnings growth could halve at Indian banks, which together make up about a third of the Nifty's weighting, with experts attributing the foreign funds-heavy sector's deceleration in FY26 to a circumspect economy, narrower core profits, muted credit demand, and persistently high deposit costs. "The banking sector's earnings growth has witnessed successive moderation-from 39.3% in FY23 to 12.8% in FY25," said Nitin Aggarwal, head, BFSI, Motilal Oswal Securities. "In FY26, we estimate earnings growth to moderate to 6.5%, with the first half being more muted. We also estimate FY27 earnings growth to recover to 16.1%." by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Bartellah: Unsold Furniture Liquidation 2024 (Prices May Surprise You) Unsold Furniture | Search Ads Learn More Undo Some analysts have pencilled in aggregate growth at 2%, with policy rates dropping a full percentage point in four months, prompting an immediately lower pricing for a majority of loans tied to the external gauge. Most analysts, however, expect earnings growth in the lending sector to rebound in FY27. Agencies "We expect earnings growth for our covered banks to remain subdued at 2% on year in FY26 and improve to 16% on year in FY27," Ankit Bihani, associate, Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India), said. "Earnings cuts have been sharper for MFI lenders like Bandhan and IndusInd Bank. FY26-27 EPS cuts for large private banks have been 0-8% and PSU banks 6-10%, led by moderation of NIMs amid the rate cut cycle." The recent deceleration in credit growth and the downgrade in earnings growth is the result of RBI's calibrated actions to rein in unsecured consumer credit which has triggered a slowdown in personal and services credit, which together account for over 70% of the total growth slowdown. Credit growth has dropped sharply from 16% a year ago to under 10% now. Live Events While bank credit to NBFCs, down to 3% on year, has driven much of the decline in services credit, a drop in unsecured credit growth has also weighed on the expansion in personal loans. Tight liquidity in the system, due to persistent forex outflows, continued well into March 2025, further constraining banks' lending capacity. A weakened risk appetite among banks, driven by emerging asset quality concerns in microfinance and credit card book, prompted banks to pull back on credit growth toward the latter half of FY25. "We forecast a rebound to 13% in FY26, around 100 bps ahead of consensus, supported by a favorable base, improving demand from consumers, NBFCs, and the agri segment, and aided by both rate cuts, liquidity surplus, CRR easing and fiscal measures like budget tax cut stimuli," said Pranav Gundlapalle, head of India financials at Bernstein.
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Indian Banks' earnings growth forecast halved amid economic caution and high deposit costs
Mumbai: The pace of earnings growth could halve at Indian banks, which together make up about a third of the Nifty's weighting, with experts attributing the foreign funds-heavy sector's deceleration in FY26 to a circumspect economy, narrower core profits, muted credit demand, and persistently high deposit costs. ADVERTISEMENT "The banking sector's earnings growth has witnessed successive moderation-from 39.3% in FY23 to 12.8% in FY25," said Nitin Aggarwal, head, BFSI, Motilal Oswal Securities. "In FY26, we estimate earnings growth to moderate to 6.5%, with the first half being more muted. We also estimate FY27 earnings growth to recover to 16.1%." Some analysts have pencilled in aggregate growth at 2%, with policy rates dropping a full percentage point in four months, prompting an immediately lower pricing for a majority of loans tied to the external gauge. Most analysts, however, expect earnings growth in the lending sector to rebound in FY27. "We expect earnings growth for our covered banks to remain subdued at 2% on year in FY26 and improve to 16% on year in FY27," Ankit Bihani, associate, Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India), said. "Earnings cuts have been sharper for MFI lenders like Bandhan and IndusInd Bank. FY26-27 EPS cuts for large private banks have been 0-8% and PSU banks 6-10%, led by moderation of NIMs amid the rate cut cycle."The recent deceleration in credit growth and the downgrade in earnings growth is the result of RBI's calibrated actions to rein in unsecured consumer credit which has triggered a slowdown in personal and services credit, which together account for over 70% of the total growth slowdown. Credit growth has dropped sharply from 16% a year ago to under 10% bank credit to NBFCs, down to 3% on year, has driven much of the decline in services credit, a drop in unsecured credit growth has also weighed on the expansion in personal loans. Tight liquidity in the system, due to persistent forex outflows, continued well into March 2025, further constraining banks' lending capacity. ADVERTISEMENT A weakened risk appetite among banks, driven by emerging asset quality concerns in microfinance and credit card book, prompted banks to pull back on credit growth toward the latter half of FY25. "We forecast a rebound to 13% in FY26, around 100 bps ahead of consensus, supported by a favorable base, improving demand from consumers, NBFCs, and the agri segment, and aided by both rate cuts, liquidity surplus, CRR easing and fiscal measures like budget tax cut stimuli," said Pranav Gundlapalle, head of India financials at Bernstein. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Economic Times
13-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
NRI Talk: Why NRIs in Dubai and Singapore pay zero tax on mutual fund gains, Nitin Aggarwal explains
In this edition of NRI Talk, Nitin Aggarwal, Director of Investment Research and Advisory at Client Associates, breaks down why NRIs residing in countries like Dubai and Singapore pay zero tax on their mutual fund gains in also shares valuable insights on why India continues to be a top investment destination for NRIs, common pitfalls to avoid, and the sectors they're most bullish on. From tax advantages under DTAA to the long-term wealth mindset of global investors, this conversation offers a deep dive into how NRIs are approaching India's growth story. Edited Excerpts - ADVERTISEMENT Q) Thanks for taking the time out. How are NRIs looking at India as a long-term investment destination? And, what are the other hot countries which they invest in?A) India is one of the most preferred markets for the long-term investments for NRIs. Several clients have increased exposure to India in recent years as there is no country other than India with strong and stable economic growth prospects. Q) There is big debate on social media about taxation. Help us understand why NRIs In Dubai, Singapore & Mauritius have to pay zero tax on mutual fund gains? A) The debate stems from a recent ruling by Income Tax Appellate Tribunal (ITAT) where it ruled that under the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA), NRIs are not required to pay long-term taxed on mutual funds gains and these should be taxed in the residing countries. And since some of the countries, such as UAE, that India has DTAA do not charge capital gains, the NRIs in those countries will effectively pay Zero tax on gains from mutual fund investments in India. Q) What are the big mistakes which NRIs should avoid when making investment in India? ADVERTISEMENT A) We always advise to understand the risk associated with the investments. We advise using a balanced approach instead of just chasing returns.Q) What is the money mindset which NRIs follow. Are there any common attributes? ADVERTISEMENT A) Most of the NRIs that we engage with have a long-term investment horizon. They are looking to build wealth through compounding over the long-term. Q) Which investment options or asset classes are hot favourites of NRIs and why? ADVERTISEMENT A) Most of the NRIs are looking to diversify their exposure by building positions in high growth, stable economies. Q) Which sectors are more preferred when NRIs look to invest in India? A) Currently we are favouring financial services and consumption driven sectors, and that is what we are advising out clients to allocate money too. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
13-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
NRI Talk: Why NRIs in Dubai and Singapore pay zero tax on mutual fund gains, Nitin Aggarwal explains
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel In this edition of NRI Talk, Nitin Aggarwal, Director of Investment Research and Advisory at Client Associates, breaks down why NRIs residing in countries like Dubai and Singapore pay zero tax on their mutual fund gains in also shares valuable insights on why India continues to be a top investment destination for NRIs, common pitfalls to avoid, and the sectors they're most bullish tax advantages under DTAA to the long-term wealth mindset of global investors, this conversation offers a deep dive into how NRIs are approaching India's growth story. Edited Excerpts -A) India is one of the most preferred markets for the long-term investments for NRIs. Several clients have increased exposure to India in recent years as there is no country other than India with strong and stable economic growth prospects.A) The debate stems from a recent ruling by Income Tax Appellate Tribunal (ITAT) where it ruled that under the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA), NRIs are not required to pay long-term taxed on mutual funds gains and these should be taxed in the residing countries. And since some of the countries, such as UAE, that India has DTAA do not charge capital gains, the NRIs in those countries will effectively pay Zero tax on gains from mutual fund investments in India.A) We always advise to understand the risk associated with the investments. We advise using a balanced approach instead of just chasing returns.A) Most of the NRIs that we engage with have a long-term investment horizon. They are looking to build wealth through compounding over the long-term.A) Most of the NRIs are looking to diversify their exposure by building positions in high growth, stable economies.A) Currently we are favouring financial services and consumption driven sectors, and that is what we are advising out clients to allocate money too.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Indian Express
28-04-2025
- Automotive
- Indian Express
Only 10% vehicles being scrapped at registered centre in Chandigarh
The Registered Vehicle Scrapping Facility (RVSF) in Chandigarh is receiving a low response from vehicle owners whose vehicles have completed their permissible lifespan and need to be scrapped. With nearly 10 per cent of vehicles being scrapped at the Chandigarh RVSF — the city's only authorised vehicle scrapping centre — around 90 per cent of vehicles, either commercial or private, are going to local scrappers instead. Gopal Krishan, the owner of the RVSF, said, 'There are multiple reasons why vehicle owners prefer local scrappers over our authorised centre. Firstly, there is not much awareness about the existence of an authorised scrapping centre, and secondly, people don't know the multiple benefits of scrapping their vehicles through an RVSF.' He explained that if someone scraps their vehicle at the RVSF, all traffic violation challans against that vehicle will be waived off. Additionally, once the vehicle is registered for scrapping at the RVSF, the registration certificate (RC) status gets cancelled and is updated on the Vahan application. However, due to lack of awareness, many owners approach car dealers, local scrap dealers, or junk collectors. Although local junk dealers often offer a higher price than the RVSF, the risk is that parts like the engine, chassis, and others may be resold individually or the vehicle may even be misused for illegal activities since the RC status remains active, said Gopal Krishan. If a vehicle owner does not scrap the vehicle through the RVSF, they must visit the RLA (Registering and Licensing Authority) or the STA (State Transport Authority) to cancel the RC manually. Gopal Krishan suggested that the government should discontinue the facility of cancelling RCs through the RLA or STA in order to promote scrapping through authorised RVSF centres. His RVSF centre, Select Technical Services, is located in Industrial Area Phase I, Chandigarh. 'Though I get vehicles for scrapping from Jammu, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Chandigarh, only very few approach the RVSF directly,' said Gopal Krishan. Currently, only about 20-25 two-wheelers and 150-200 private cars are scrapped monthly at the RVSF in Chandigarh. No commercial vehicles are being scrapped at the centre. Nitin Aggarwal, a transporter from Chandigarh's Daria area, said, 'There is a huge margin between the price offered by local scrap dealers and the RVSF. Also, in today's thriving used-vehicle market, many choose to sell their old vehicles to dealers instead of scrapping them.' Ajay Singh, who recently bought a new car, sold his old diesel-engine car to a dealership offering attractive schemes. 'I received Rs 1.35 lakh for my old car, which was nearing the end of its life. If I had opted for RVSF scrapping, I would have missed out on the exchange benefits,' he said. Amit Kumar, secretary of the State Transport Authority, said since it is not mandatory for commercial vehicle owners to scrap their vehicles at an RVSF, many choose local scrappers within or outside Chandigarh instead.
