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Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Commodity Radar: MCX crude oil futures cross 200-DMA amid Israel-Iran tension. Can it breach this crucial resistance zone?
Tight inventories and a declining number of operational oil rigs have kept the prices in a positive territory throughout June, so far. Synopsis Crude oil prices are on an upswing amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions, tight inventories, and declining rig counts. Naveen Mathur of Anand Rathi says prices could stay elevated unless tensions ease. With key resistance at Rs 6,300 and global volatility, oil remains bullish despite intermittent profit booking. Amid growing geopolitical unrest between Israel and Iran, oil prices are back in their 70s and concerns over disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and targeted energy infrastructure, combined with declining oil rigs and tepid OPEC supply, are pushing prices higher, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said. He sees that market sentiment remains bullish unless tensions ease significantly. Edited excerpts: ADVERTISEMENT Crude oil futures were trading in the green on Wednesday, notwithstanding some profit booking in the international markets. Crude oil prices have firmed up on Israel-Iran tensions, and there is a view in certain sections that the prices could double to $150 per barrel. The July crude oil futures were trading at Rs 6,324 per bbl on the MCX, gaining Rs 25 or 0.4% over the previous closing. Meanwhile, on the COMEX, crude oil contracts were trading around $74.54 per bbl, declining by $0.30 or 0.40%. Brent oil futures were down by $0.44 or 0.58% and hovering near the $76.01 mark. Commenting on the current trends, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said that the geopolitical tensions have once again gripped oil markets, this time driven by the escalating Israel-Iran conflict and the potential for supply disruptions, which have acted as a catalyst for oil's dramatic 10% price rise over the last five days. Moreover, tight inventories and a declining number of operational oil rigs have kept the prices in a positive territory throughout June, so far. 'The recent escalation in tensions has added fuel to the rally, with prices up nearly 20% so far this month. There is a heightened risk to Iran's oil output (OPEC's third-largest producer), and potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass—are fueling volatility. The fact that both sides have targeted energy infrastructure is a clear cause for concern, with the key export hub of Kharg Island and oilfields in Iraq potentially at risk. However, the threat to block the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest wild card,' Mathur added. ADVERTISEMENT Mathur highlighted that oil rigs continue to decline and are now at their lowest level in four years. Moreover, despite OPEC's announcement of an aggressive unwinding of production cuts, the actual output increase in May was much lower than expected. 1. Key levels: Resistance & Support ADVERTISEMENT MCX Crude Oil is displaying a bullish trend as it trades above the 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at Rs 5,846, though it faces a significant resistance level at Rs 6,100, and a breakout above this could trigger further upside momentum, the Anand Rathi expert resistance levels are seen at 6300, 6460, and 6850, while support is placed at 6011, 5840, and 5700. 2. Moving Averages: A positive crossover of the 21 and 50 Daily Moving Averages reinforces the bullish sentiment. ADVERTISEMENT The MACD indicator continues to trend above the zero line, adding strength to the upward Crude Oil is approaching a crucial zone between $70 and $73, with $68 acting as a strong support level for a potential upside rally towards $75–$78. Additional support levels are identified at $65.90, $64, and $62.40. Also Read: Commodity Radar: Copper gets a Chinese glow. Is it time to mine profits? ADVERTISEMENT (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) Nikita Papers IPO opens on May 27, price band set at Rs 95-104 per share Nikita Papers IPO opens on May 27, price band set at Rs 95-104 per share Why gold prices could surpass $4,000: JP Morgan's bullish outlook explained Why gold prices could surpass $4,000: JP Morgan's bullish outlook explained Cyient shares fall over 9% after Q4 profit declines, core business underperforms Cyient shares fall over 9% after Q4 profit declines, core business underperforms L&T Technology Services shares slide 7% after Q4 profit dips L&T Technology Services shares slide 7% after Q4 profit dips Trump-Powell standoff puts U.S. Rate policy in crosshairs: Who will blink first? 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Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Commodity Radar: MCX crude oil futures cross 200-DMA amid Israel-Iran tension. Can it breach this crucial resistance zone?
Live Events Tech View 2 things to watch out for Outlook (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Amid growing geopolitical unrest between Israel and Iran, oil prices are back in their 70s and concerns over disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and targeted energy infrastructure, combined with declining oil rigs and tepid OPEC supply, are pushing prices higher, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said. He sees that market sentiment remains bullish unless tensions ease significantly. Edited excerpts:Crude oil futures were trading in the green on Wednesday, notwithstanding some profit booking in the international markets. Crude oil prices have firmed up on Israel-Iran tensions, and there is a view in certain sections that the prices could double to $150 per July crude oil futures were trading at Rs 6,324 per bbl on the MCX, gaining Rs 25 or 0.4% over the previous on the COMEX, crude oil contracts were trading around $74.54 per bbl, declining by $0.30 or 0.40%. Brent oil futures were down by $0.44 or 0.58% and hovering near the $76.01 on the current trends, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said that the geopolitical tensions have once again gripped oil markets, this time driven by the escalating Israel-Iran conflict and the potential for supply disruptions, which have acted as a catalyst for oil's dramatic 10% price rise over the last five tight inventories and a declining number of operational oil rigs have kept the prices in a positive territory throughout June, so far.'The recent escalation in tensions has added fuel to the rally, with prices up nearly 20% so far this month. There is a heightened risk to Iran's oil output (OPEC's third-largest producer), and potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass—are fueling volatility. The fact that both sides have targeted energy infrastructure is a clear cause for concern, with the key export hub of Kharg Island and oilfields in Iraq potentially at risk. However, the threat to block the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest wild card,' Mathur highlighted that oil rigs continue to decline and are now at their lowest level in four despite OPEC's announcement of an aggressive unwinding of production cuts, the actual output increase in May was much lower than Crude Oil is displaying a bullish trend as it trades above the 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at Rs 5,846, though it faces a significant resistance level at Rs 6,100, and a breakout above this could trigger further upside momentum, the Anand Rathi expert resistance levels are seen at 6300, 6460, and 6850, while support is placed at 6011, 5840, and 5700.A positive crossover of the 21 and 50 Daily Moving Averages reinforces the bullish MACD indicator continues to trend above the zero line, adding strength to the upward Crude Oil is approaching a crucial zone between $70 and $73, with $68 acting as a strong support level for a potential upside rally towards $75–$78. Additional support levels are identified at $65.90, $64, and $ Read: Commodity Radar: Copper gets a Chinese glow. Is it time to mine profits? (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Time of India
11-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Commodity Radar: Rally accelerates as crude oil prices jump 10% in a month. Know why to hold your horses
Although crude oil prices are currently buoyed by tight supply and positive sentiment, the outlook for the second half of 2025 is clouded by the prospect of rising supply and persistent demand-side risks, says Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. Edited excerpts: Crude oil futures were trading lackluster on the MCX in the early trade on Wednesday, taking cues from the prices in the international markets. The trade remains subdued as investors prefer to remain cautious amid the US-China trade talks whose outcomes are yet to become clear. Prices were up on Tuesday as negotiations were into their second day. There is an anticipation of a deal between the two largest oil consuming economies. The MCX June contracts were trading around Rs 5,584 per bbl in the early trade, marginally higher by Re 1 or 0.02% over the previous closing price. On the COMEX, the US WTI oil futures were trading at $64.83 per bbl, losing by $0.15 or 0.23% while the Brent Oil contracts were down by $ 0.170 or 0.250% at $66.70. Commenting on the recent trends in the oil markets, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said that crude oil prices have risen almost 10% so far this month driven by a tightening of spot markets amid peak seasonal demand, declining rig counts, US–China trade talk optimism and the ongoing geopolitical tensions. 'Despite OPEC+ raising production quotas since April, actual increases in supply have trailed official targets and thus inventories continue to remain tight. The U.S. oil rig count fell by 9 last week to 442—the lowest since October 2021, as shale producers cut activity amid crude prices in the low $60s, weak demand outlook, and OPEC+ output hike plans,' Mathur said. Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ to accelerate oil supply hikes in August but a slew of data points, including refinery throughput, cargo exports, pipeline flows, and indications of stockpiling does not indicate any major restoration of output by Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's state oil firm Saudi Aramco will ship about 47 million barrels to China in July, a tally of allocations to Chinese refiners showed, 1 million barrels less than June's allotted volume. A Reuters survey found that OPEC oil output rose in May, although the increase was limited as Iraq pumped below target to compensate for earlier overproduction and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates made smaller hikes than allowed. Tech View MCX crude Oil has showcased strong bullish momentum with a significant breakout above the horizontal trend line at Rs 5,500, suggesting potential upside levels of Rs 5,717–6,035, the Anand Rathi expert said while highlighting that a positive crossover of the 21-day and 50-day moving averages further confirms a robust bullish trend. In his view, momentum indicators like MACD remain favorable, sustaining above the zero line, which strengthens the outlook. Trading strategy Despite supportive near term fundamentals, one needs to stay cautious in crude oil as the market is expected to be in surplus later this year due to a Saudi-led output surge and increasing production from outside OPEC+, Mathur warns. On the other hand, the US leading indicator has stayed below zero (-4 in April) for 34 months, signaling potential downside for oil prices amid rising stagflation risks, weak Chinese recovery, and uncertainty from US tariffs—all pointing to softer oil demand. Key support for MCX crude oil lies at Rs 5,430–5,320, where any retracement could find a strong base for a rebound, Mathur said. Similarly, international benchmark WTI Crude Oil has broken past the critical resistance at $65, paving the way for further gains towards $68.20–$70.58, he said, adding that the support zone between $65 and $63.44 underpins this uptrend, ensuring stability. Both benchmarks reflect positive sentiment driven by technical factors, highlighting a strong potential for upward movement in the crude oil market. Also Read: Commodity Radar: Sell gold on rise as yellow metal consolidates. 5 technical factors to watch out for
Economic Times
11-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Commodity Radar: Rally accelerates as crude oil prices jump 10% in a month. Know why to hold your horses
Although crude oil prices are currently buoyed by tight supply and positive sentiment, the outlook for the second half of 2025 is clouded by the prospect of rising supply and persistent demand-side risks, says Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. Edited excerpts: ADVERTISEMENT Crude oil futures were trading lackluster on the MCX in the early trade on Wednesday, taking cues from the prices in the international markets. The trade remains subdued as investors prefer to remain cautious amid the US-China trade talks whose outcomes are yet to become clear. Prices were up on Tuesday as negotiations were into their second day. There is an anticipation of a deal between the two largest oil consuming economies. The MCX June contracts were trading around Rs 5,584 per bbl in the early trade, marginally higher by Re 1 or 0.02% over the previous closing price. On the COMEX, the US WTI oil futures were trading at $64.83 per bbl, losing by $0.15 or 0.23% while the Brent Oil contracts were down by $ 0.170 or 0.250% at $66.70. Commenting on the recent trends in the oil markets, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said that crude oil prices have risen almost 10% so far this month driven by a tightening of spot markets amid peak seasonal demand, declining rig counts, US–China trade talk optimism and the ongoing geopolitical tensions. ADVERTISEMENT 'Despite OPEC+ raising production quotas since April, actual increases in supply have trailed official targets and thus inventories continue to remain tight. The U.S. oil rig count fell by 9 last week to 442—the lowest since October 2021, as shale producers cut activity amid crude prices in the low $60s, weak demand outlook, and OPEC+ output hike plans,' Mathur said. Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ to accelerate oil supply hikes in August but a slew of data points, including refinery throughput, cargo exports, pipeline flows, and indications of stockpiling does not indicate any major restoration of output by Saudi Arabia. ADVERTISEMENT Saudi Arabia's state oil firm Saudi Aramco will ship about 47 million barrels to China in July, a tally of allocations to Chinese refiners showed, 1 million barrels less than June's allotted volume. A Reuters survey found that OPEC oil output rose in May, although the increase was limited as Iraq pumped below target to compensate for earlier overproduction and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates made smaller hikes than allowed. Tech View ADVERTISEMENT MCX crude Oil has showcased strong bullish momentum with a significant breakout above the horizontal trend line at Rs 5,500, suggesting potential upside levels of Rs 5,717–6,035, the Anand Rathi expert said while highlighting that a positive crossover of the 21-day and 50-day moving averages further confirms a robust bullish trend. In his view, momentum indicators like MACD remain favorable, sustaining above the zero line, which strengthens the strategy ADVERTISEMENT Despite supportive near term fundamentals, one needs to stay cautious in crude oil as the market is expected to be in surplus later this year due to a Saudi-led output surge and increasing production from outside OPEC+, Mathur warns. On the other hand, the US leading indicator has stayed below zero (-4 in April) for 34 months, signaling potential downside for oil prices amid rising stagflation risks, weak Chinese recovery, and uncertainty from US tariffs—all pointing to softer oil demand. Key support for MCX crude oil lies at Rs 5,430–5,320, where any retracement could find a strong base for a rebound, Mathur international benchmark WTI Crude Oil has broken past the critical resistance at $65, paving the way for further gains towards $68.20–$70.58, he said, adding that the support zone between $65 and $63.44 underpins this uptrend, ensuring stability. Both benchmarks reflect positive sentiment driven by technical factors, highlighting a strong potential for upward movement in the crude oil market. Also Read: Commodity Radar: Sell gold on rise as yellow metal consolidates. 5 technical factors to watch out for (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
09-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Silver shines bright: MCX silver hits record high of Rs 1.06 lakh; is Rs 1.2 lakh next milestone?
Silver is stealing the spotlight in 2025, hitting an all time high of Rs 1,06,138 per kilogram on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) last week, emerging as one of the top-performing commodities. The upward trajectory of this precious metal was helped by a potent combination of safe-haven buying, global supply constraints, and strong industrial demand, particularly from the fast-expanding clean energy and electronics sectors. The latest surge follows months of heightened geopolitical tensions, especially the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and an accelerating global shift towards green technologies, both of which have strengthened silver's appeal as both a strategic asset and a critical industrial input. Industry experts also suggested that this rally is far from over, as the white metal is expected to reach as high as Rs 1,23,000/kg in the upcoming months. Blockbuster comeback The precious metal was stuck in a decade-long downtrend after hitting its peak in 2011, finally ending the streak in 2020 after undergoing a structural reversal in 2020. Since March 2020, silver has made a powerful comeback, rising substantially, first aided with gold's rally and then supported by its own fundamentals. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Buy Brass Idols - Handmade Brass Statues for Home & Gifting Luxeartisanship Buy Now Undo The metal holds a unique dual role—as both an industrial input and a precious asset—allowing it to benefit from economic uncertainty as well as ongoing technological advancements. Adding to this are geopolitical concerns, with Russia, one of the world's top ten silver producers, embroiled in an ongoing conflict, fuelling fears of a potential supply crunch. The metal has also gained on a safe-haven demand, driven by weakening dollar, trade tensions and Fed's cautious stance on interest rates. Will silver continue the rally? Technical chart patterns point to a multi-year surge for the metal, further reinforcing the forecast of an upward momentum. Analysts also suggest that it could continue to be ahead of other precious metals for the remaining year. Here is what analysts had to say: Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers Naveen Mathur, director of commodities and currencies at the agency, expected the metal to continue its upward momentum, offering a return of almost 18% to 20% as compared to the current levels. In the long term, he said that the metal may continue rising in the range of $38.70–$41.50 per oz internationally, translating to Rs 1,15,000–Rs 1,23,000/kg in MCX futures during 2025. 'Silver prices hit lifetime highs above Rs 1,05,000 in MCX futures while prices reached almost 13-year highs in international markets above $36/oz in spot. The safe-haven demand persisted due to the Russia-Ukraine front and softening US macro cues. Russia, a top 10 global silver producer, adds supply disruption risks in a market already running a deficit for five years,' he said, quoted by ET. Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki, a well known financial educator also reiterated his long-standing bullish stance on silver in a public post on his X account. He shared that the precious white metal continues to be the 'best bargain today,' expecting it to double in value, touching $70/oz this year. This target suggests a massive surge from the present global market prices. LKP Securities Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst, commodity & currency at LKP Securities, said that silver has undergone a structural shift since its 2020 lows, fuelled by safe-haven buying, rising geopolitical tensions, and strong industrial demand from clean energy sectors. He pointed out that silver prices have jumped nearly 60% over the past two years, climbing from Rs 87,000 to Rs 1,04,500 in 2025 alone. 'With continued volatility in global markets and robust demand from sectors like solar and EVs, silver remains poised to test Rs 1,10,000–Rs 1,20,000 this year. The outlook stays bullish, favoring a buy-on-dips strategy,' Trivedi added. Reliance securities Jigar Trivedi, senior research analyst, currencies & commodities at Reliance Securities,that with prices already above Rs 1 lakh/kg, the MCX silver is poised to reach to Rs 1,10,000/kg in a month. Comex silver may also appreciate to $36–$37/oz. 'Amid escalating geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties, both gold and silver have surged, but silver is emerging as a strong contender. Silver, buoyed by industrial demand from EVs and solar, offers higher growth potential despite greater volatility.' 'The outlook is positive, and a diversified allocation of 6–8% in gold and 12–15% in silver is advisable,' he added. Overall outlook The outlook for silver remains positive, supported by strong institutional interest, long-term supply constraints, and favourable technical signals. As it continues to gain ground in both investment and industrial sectors, the metal is well-positioned for further appreciation through the rest of the year. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
