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Forbes
4 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Tariff War Truce Triggers Shipping Surge
President Donald Trump's announcement last Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard at Wealth Management's EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession. Beyond that, I think Trump's announcement provides investors with a fresh incentive to turn their attention to global trade, particularly the shipping industry. According to the president's statement on Truth Social, the deal is 'done,' pending final approval from both him and President Xi Jinping. The terms include a commitment from China to supply rare earth metals, while the U.S. maintains significantly higher tariffs on Chinese imports—reportedly 55% compared to China's 10%. I think most people would agree that, after months of tariff turmoil, this is a constructive step toward stability and, indeed, fairness. For shipping, that matters more than you might think. As everyone recalls, the White House imposed an eye-popping 145% tariff on Chinese imports in April, sending shockwaves through global supply chains and capital markets. Retailers hit the brakes. Orders were delayed or canceled, and ocean freight volumes plunged. But just a few weeks later, the administration announced a 90-day pause and slashed tariffs to 30%. 'Reciprocal' tariffs with other trading partners were also temporarily frozen. During that window, we've seen a surge of renewed shipping activity. The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported last week that container imports at U.S. ports are now expected to climb 3.7% year-over-year for the first half of 2025. That's better than forecasts before the pause. Shipping volume from China jumped 9% in the first week of June alone, according to Goldman Sachs data. The container shipping industry has always been cyclical and sensitive to geopolitical events, and this year has been no exception. After bottoming in 2023, rates have rebounded sharply, driven not only by tariff uncertainty but also by persistent global disruptions, such as the Red Sea crisis. Drewry's World Container Index showed a 70% spike in just four weeks, with freight costs from Shanghai to Los Angeles up nearly 140% since the end of March. That said, prices remain well below the COVID-era highs, when rates surpassed $10,000 per 40-foot container. For context, today's rates are closer to $5,800—a historically elevated level, but not unsustainable. Importers are moving fast to restock while the policy window is open. That activity is supporting not only shipping volumes but also company earnings. In the first quarter of 2025, the global container shipping industry posted nearly $10 billion in profit. That's a drop from the $15.6 billion earned in Q4 of last year, but it's also 83% higher than the same period in 2024. The market has begun to take notice. As of this month, I count nine publicly traded container carriers with a market capitalization of at least $10 billion. This includes names like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, along with rapidly growing Asian players such as Wan Hai Lines. These companies now rival or surpass familiar, investable U.S. airline stocks in terms of valuation. This tells me that institutional investors see the potential in global shipping. Granted, it's not all smooth sailing. A recent survey by Freightos of more than 100 small-to-midsize importers paints a picture of anxiety beneath the surface. Even with the pause in place, 80% of respondents said they're as or more worried than they were in April. Nearly half gave the situation a 'perfect 10' on the disruption scale. Full disclosure, this survey was taken before the U.S.-China trade deal was announced. Reshoring—or the practice of shifting production back to the U.S.—remains a possibility for companies that have moved overseas, but only 6% of companies have done so, according to Freightos. You may have seen headlines that the World Bank revised its global growth forecast downward to 2.3% for 2025, marking the slowest non-recessionary year since 2008. Trade frictions, including those stemming from tariff uncertainty, are among the top culprits. But there's more to the story. The same World Bank report echoed Trump's longstanding complaint that the U.S. faces unfairly high trade barriers abroad. The Washington, D.C.-based organization calls for a broad reduction in global tariffs, suggesting growing recognition of the problem and, perhaps, momentum for reform. If that happens, and the world moves toward more equitable trade terms, shipping could be a key beneficiary. More open markets mean more trade, and more trade means more cargo. Shipping companies are coming off a strong earnings season. Rates are elevated but not extreme. Inventories are being replenished. And long-term, the world will still need ships to move the goods that power our economies.
Fibre2Fashion
4 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US retail sales growth slows in May amid tariff uncertainty: NRF
Total retail sales excluding autos and fuel increased 0.49 per cent month over month and 4.44 per cent year over year in May, compared to April's stronger gains of 0.72 per cent and 6.76 per cent, respectively, as consumers pulled back ahead of expected tariffs, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions. Clothing and accessories stores also saw healthy performance, rising 0.67 per cent month over month and 3.21 per cent year over year. US retail sales rose 0.49 per cent month over month and 4.44 per cent year over year in May, slowing from April's stronger pace, as consumers eased spending ahead of expected tariffs. Core retail sales grew 0.23 per cent monthly and 4.2 per cent annually. Digital products surged 28.04 per cent year over year, while clothing rose 3.21 per cent. Year-to-date sales remain robust. Core retail sales—which exclude restaurants, automobile dealers, and fuel—rose 0.23 per cent month over month and 4.2 per cent year over year, down from April's respective growth rates of 0.9 per cent and 7.11 per cent, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said in a media release. Among individual segments, digital products led with a sharp 1.81 per cent monthly gain and a substantial 28.04 per cent year-over-year increase. In contrast, furniture and home furnishings posted a 0.24 per cent monthly decline and were down 0.1 per cent from a year earlier. For the first five months of 2025, total retail sales rose 4.95 per cent year over year, while core sales increased 5.24 per cent. 'The data for May indicates that the pull-forward in consumer demand ahead of tariffs is likely dissipating,' NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. 'While momentum remains, the nature of consumer spending is shifting as economic uncertainty increases. Consumer fundamentals haven't been damaged yet, and a slowing-but-still-growing job market is supporting household priorities ahead of any meaningful price increases in the coming months.' Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
US retail growth softens as tariff fears fade
Retail sales in the United States continued to grow in May, although the pace of spending eased compared to previous months, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions. The data, based on actual consumer card transactions rather than surveys, shows a shift in consumer behaviour amid increasing economic uncertainty and ahead of potential tariff-related price hikes. Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and fuel, rose by 0.49% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, a slower rate than April's 0.72% increase. On a year-over-year basis, unadjusted sales grew by 4.44%, down from April's 6.76%. Core retail sales—which also exclude restaurants—were up 0.23% month over month and 4.2% year over year. In contrast, April saw stronger gains of 0.9% monthly and 7.11% annually. Despite the slower momentum, retail sales have maintained a positive trajectory, with total sales up 4.95% year to date and core sales rising by 5.24%. This suggests that while spending habits are shifting, overall consumer demand remains resilient. National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay noted that the earlier increase in spending driven by concerns over tariffs now appears to be levelling out. 'The data for May indicates that the pull-forward in consumer demand ahead of tariffs is likely dissipating,' he said. Shay added that although the economy faces uncertainties, a still-growing job market is helping households manage their spending priorities. The slight cooling in retail sales comes as inflation pressures persist and interest rates remain elevated. Nevertheless, consumer fundamentals such as employment and wage growth continue to provide underlying support for spending. Retail categories showed mixed performance in May, with seven out of nine sectors reporting year-over-year gains. Digital products experienced the most notable growth, rising by 28.04% annually and 1.81% monthly. Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores also performed well, up 8.21% year over year and 0.42% month over month. General merchandise stores saw increases of 4.63% annually and 0.4% monthly. Grocery and beverage retailers recorded a 4.53% year-on-year gain and a 0.46% monthly rise, while health and personal care shops rose by 3.85% and 0.06%, respectively. Clothing and accessory sales were up 3.21% compared to last year, with a monthly gain of 0.67%. In contrast, electronics and appliance stores fell by 1.98% month over month, although they were still up 2.58% annually. Some sectors experienced outright declines. Furniture and home furnishings were down 0.24% monthly and 0.1% annually. Building and garden supply stores saw the steepest drop, falling 2.3% from April and 7.31% from May last year. Unlike traditional estimates from the US Census Bureau, which rely on survey responses and are subject to revisions, the Retail Monitor uses anonymised credit and debit card data from Affinity Solutions. This allows for more immediate and consistent tracking of consumer spending trends. The results for May suggest that while consumers are becoming more selective, they are not pulling back entirely. Retailers will be watching closely in the coming months as the effects of tariffs, inflation, and interest rates continue to shape purchasing patterns. Navigate the shifting tariff landscape with real-time data and market-leading analysis. Request a free demo for GlobalData's Strategic Intelligence . "US retail growth softens as tariff fears fade" was originally created and published by Retail Insight Network, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Father's Day hits record sales high
With Father's Day just around the corner, Americans are projected to spend a record $24 billion on dads and father figures this year, per survey data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics. That's up from $22.4 billion in 2024 and the prior peak of $22.9 billion in 2023. Shoppers plan to shell out an average of $199.38 per person, nearly $10 more than in 2024, with the 35–44 age group leading the charge at an average of $278.90. Father's Day gifting is evolving: while 58% of consumers still buy greeting cards, many are opting for more meaningful presents. 55% will purchase clothing, 53% special outings, and 50% gift cards. Experience-driven gifts continue to gain momentum: 43% plan subscription boxes (up from 34% in 2019) 30% intend to give experiences like concert tickets (up from 23% in 2019) 'As consumers prioritize Father's Day gifts that are unique or create special memories, categories such as special outings and personal care items have seen an increase in popularity this year,' said Phil Rist, EVP of Strategy at Prosper. 'A special outing offers an opportunity to create new memories and celebrate together, while a personal care item allows dad to feel pampered.' Online shopping continues to lead, with 41% of purchases made digitally. Department stores follow at 35%, discount and specialty stores at 23–22%, and 19% shop in local or small businesses. 'Americans are embracing meaningful traditions and holidays, and this Father's Day, spending on gifts and other holiday items is expected to reach record levels,' said Katherine Cullen, VP of Industry and Consumer Insights at NRF. 'As consumers look to recognize the father figures in their lives, retailers are prepared with gift ideas, special deals and convenient shopping options to help customers find the right gifts.' Held on Sunday, June 15, Father's Day 2025 will likely mark a milestone for both heartfelt celebrations and retail success.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Americans spend $10 billion more on Mother's Day than Father's Day. What's going on?
When it comes to honoring our parents on their special days, dads appear to be the big loser. That's according to data from the National Retail Federation — specifically, its tracking of spending on Father's Day, which is this upcoming Sunday, and Mother's Day. This year, Americans are expected to shell out $24 billion on dad's holiday, whereas they spent $34.1 billion on mom's day last month, the NRF says. Israel-Iran clash delivers a fresh shock to investors. History suggests this is the move to make. I'm in my 80s and have 2 kids. How do I choose between them to be my executor? 'He failed in his fiduciary duty': My brother liquidated our mother's 401(k) for her nursing home. He claimed the rest. 'I'm 68 and my 401(k) has dwindled to $82,000': My husband committed financial infidelity and has $50,000 in credit-card debt. What now? These defense stocks offer the best growth prospects, as the Israel-Iran conflict fuels new interest in the sector That's a gap of $10.1 billion. And the gap has only grown over the years, at least as measured in dollars. Consider: In 2016, Americans spent $7.4 billion more on mom versus dad, according to the NRF. There may be no definitive reason as to why fathers lose out to mothers on their respective signature occasions — but that doesn't stop marketing, parenting and other experts from offering plenty of possible explanations. Begin with the fact that moms are generally more revered for their familial contributions from a societal standpoint, observers say. Much of that has to do with the intrinsic nature of motherhood, as in the fact that moms who go through childbirth have to endure the physical challenges of such. But even in an era when we keep hearing that parental roles are becoming more equal, studies still show that mothers bear the greater burden when it comes to housework and child-raising. 'Moms carry the emotional, mental and physical weight of parenting in most households. They're the primary parents; they're the daily grinders, the all-night pullers, the domestic glue,' said Nathaniel A. Turner, co-founder of the League of Extraordinary Parents, a support organization. All of this translates into a desire to spend more on Mother's Day. 'Moms get planned-out splurges,' said Stephanie Carls, a retail-insights expert with the RetailMeNot online platform. She noted that can include everything from jewelry to a meal or flowers — or in some cases, all of the above. By contrast, dad gifts are often an opportunistic, budget-minded buy, Carls said: think a small tool or grill accessory purchased at a home-improvement store, for example. Turner echoed that point: Father's Day, he said, is 'still stuck in the shallow end of grills, golf balls and gimmicks because it does not move consumers enough to move the economic needle.' He added that can be even more the case when consumers are feeling the financial pinch. And given inflation and other financial pressures in recent years, that may explain the growing spending gap between Father's Day and Mother's Day. RetailMeNot's spending data, based on consumer surveys, also shows this sizable gap. This year, we're shelling out $232 on dad per shopper, but we allocated $360 for mom — a gap of $128, according to the platform. In 2024, the gap was considerably smaller, with $257 spent on dad versus $316 on mom — a $59 difference. Restaurant owners are especially among those who are quick to pick up on the spending patterns. They say that Mother's Day is typically one of their busiest occasions of the year, next to Valentine's Day and New Year's Eve. By contrast, Father's Day is often not much busier than an average Sunday. Babak Bina, founding partner of Boston-based BCB3 Hospitality, a company that operates several restaurants, said that doesn't mean that dads are getting slighted, however. As a father himself, he thinks that dads just don't consider Father's Day all that important. 'We're okay with doing a barbecue and calling it a day,' Bina said. That's a view echoed by others. Brand strategist Reilly Newman said that men aren't necessarily into big social celebrations — they're as happy to celebrate Father's Day playing a round of golf on their own. 'Men are the lone wolves,' Newman said. Finally, experts say you can't ignore the role that the calendar plays. Mother's Day falls during a time of year when we're still in a get-things-accomplished mode — schools haven't let out for the summer and we're not quite hitting the beach just yet. But Father's Day falls after Memorial Day when we're much more in a vacation mindset, which can make the holiday almost seem like a distraction. Plus, we've already just spent all that money on Mother's Day, so we may feel a bit tapped out, experts noted. That leads some to wonder how things might work if Father's Day was moved to a different time of year. At least that's what Melissa Murphy, a marketing professor at Carnegie Mellon University's Tepper School of Business, has to say. 'If the holidays were further apart, it would be more equal maybe,' Murphy observed. 'It might be another Apple or Microsoft': My wife invested $100K in one stock and it exploded 1,500%. Do we sell? 'I'm not wildly wealthy, but I've done well': I'm 79 and have $3 million in assets. Should I set up 529 plans for my grandkids? My husband is in hospice care. Friends say his children are lining up for his money. What can I do? My mother-in-law thought the world's richest man needed Apple gift cards. How on Earth could she fall for this scam? Why bonds aren't acting like a safe haven for investors amid the Israel-Iran conflict
