Latest news with #NationalEconomicandSocialDevelopmentCouncil
The Star
12-06-2025
- Health
- The Star
Thai alcohol consumption surges amid worrying trend of younger smokers
BANGKOK: A new report from the National Economic and Social Development Council highlights a concerning surge in alcohol consumption across Thailand, alongside a worrying trend of younger people starting smoking, despite a slight overall drop in tobacco use. Thailand is facing a significant public health challenge as a new report from the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reveals an alarming increase in alcohol consumption and a disturbing trend of younger individuals taking up smoking. The NESDC's report on alcohol and tobacco consumption for the first quarter of 2025 indicates a rise in both categories compared to the previous year. Alcohol consumption saw a 2% increase, while tobacco consumption registered a slight 0.8% decrease. However, key concerns highlighted include the substantial rise in alcohol intake among the Thai population and an increase in regular smokers, particularly amongst younger, new users. Data from the National Statistical Office for 2024 shows that 35.2% of Thais aged 15 and above, equating to 20.9 million people, consume alcohol. This marks a notable rise from 2021, when the proportion stood at 28%, or 16 million individuals. The NESDC's study specifically pinpointed five provinces where heavy and frequent drinking (3-4 days per week) is most prevalent, putting residents at higher risk of various health conditions. These provinces, with proportions of heavy drinkers exceeding 12%, are: - Buriram - Ratchaburi - Tak - Ang Thong - Uttaradit The report cites a study by the American Heart Association, which links heavy and frequent alcohol consumption (at least three days per week) to an increased risk of heart disease, high blood pressure, irregular heartbeat (arrhythmia), and stroke. Such drinking patterns are also associated with other risky behaviours, including drunk driving and domestic violence. Younger smokers a growing concern While Thailand has observed a general decline in the overall number of smokers, the latest National Statistical Office survey for 2024 reveals a concerning shift in demographic patterns. The total number of regular smokers aged 15 and above reached 9.77 million, an increase from 9.42 million in 2017. The majority of these are male, though 320,000 regular female smokers were also identified. More critically, the average age at which individuals first begin smoking has decreased. For males, the average starting age fell to 18.4 years (from 19.1 in 2017), and for females, to 20.5 years (from 23.3 in 2017). This trend of younger individuals initiating smoking is a significant worry, as regular smoking is a known cause of non-communicable diseases, including various cancers, heart disease, lung conditions, and other respiratory illnesses. Furthermore, academic research cited in the report indicates that the growing popularity of e-cigarettes can lead to conditions such as pneumothorax (collapsed lung), where air leaks from the lung into the chest cavity, causing breathing difficulties and potentially acute heart failure. The report also stresses the detrimental health effects of secondhand smoke on those nearby. - The Nation/ANN
Malaysian Reserve
19-05-2025
- Business
- Malaysian Reserve
Thailand slashes growth forecast on impact of trade war
THAILAND significantly lowered its forecast for economic growth this year as the global trade war undercuts private investment and exports, adding to already-weak consumption at home. Gross domestic product will likely grow 1.3% to 2.3% in 2025, the National Economic and Social Development Council said on Monday. The latest forecast is a full percentage point lower than the previous estimate of 2.3% to 3.3% and more or less aligns it with that of the Bank of Thailand, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Following the dire outlook, the government decided to put on hold a planned cash handout program and instead use about 157 billion baht ($4.8 billion) budgeted for it to support projects which will generate more jobs and boost competitiveness of the local industries. If the full-year GDP outturn comes in at the midpoint, it would be Thailand's weakest print since the pandemic, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. It could take around two years for the economy to recover from the impact of a threatened 36% US tariff and a global trade slowdown, NESDC chief Danucha Pichayanan said at a briefing in Bangkok. 'Economic growth remains constrained by high household and corporate debt burdens and it is expected the growth to be softened in the second half of the year, following the global economic and trade slowdown and the impact of trade protection measures,' it said in a statement. The benchmark SET Index fell 0.7% to its lowest close since April 29. The baht, which pared gains after the release of the data, was 0.9% higher at 33.07 to a dollar by 4:30 p.m. local time. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy is bracing for the possibility of a 36% tariff in the US, its largest export market. Thailand is waiting to start negotiations with Washington to bring down the levies. 'The negotiation results will dictate the Thai economic outlook going forward,' Danucha said. 'If the situation remains relaxed like this, our economy should continue to grow without problem. If not, the situation will change.' Exports will likely grow just 1.8% this year, down from the previous estimate of 3.5% and the 5.8% in notched 2024. Machinery and electronics are Thai exports at risk of losing market share in the US market from the higher tariffs, Danucha said. Private investment is projected to decline 0.7% in 2025, in line with the exports slowdown. Private consumption, which accounts for the bulk of Thai GDP, is seen growing just 2.4%, down from the previous estimate of 3.3% and the 4.4% in 2024. Government stimulus should boost public consumption and investment, NESDC said. While Thailand's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace last quarter, it was largely driven by a surge in exports as businesses front-loaded orders in a bid to avoid the Trump tariffs. 'The trade situation and foreign exchange may be more volatile and the economy may slow down going forward,' with the impact more clear in the third quarter, Danucha said. He warned businesses and consumers to brace for the risks and be cautious with their spending. GDP in the January-March period rose 3.1% from a year earlier, beating the 2.9% median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey and comparing to the revised 3.3% pace notched in previous three months. The economy expanded 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, compared with a median estimate for 0.5% growth. A global trade war would exacerbate Thailand's already sluggish recovery post-pandemic, with local consumption remaining tepid despite cash handouts, and China's slowdown hitting the tourism sector. NESDC cut its forecast for tourist arrivals this year to 37 million from 38 million. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has pledged new stimulus measures, but they may come at the cost of bloating still-elevated government debt levels. Moody's Ratings lowered Thailand's credit rating outlook to negative from stable last month as the trade war weighs on its economic and fiscal strength. The prime minister said some programs are being reviewed in view of an expected shortfall in revenue as the trade war is affecting all countries. New government-initiated projects may help boost growth between 0.7 to 1 percentage point, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira told reporters. The Bank of Thailand also has 'very limited ammunition' after 75-basis points in cuts brought its benchmark key interest rate to 1.75%, Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said earlier this month. The central bank has warned that GDP growth this year could fall to as low as 1.3% — the slowest pace since the pandemic — in case of a severe trade war and higher US levies. –BLOOMBERG
Business Times
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Thailand Q1 GDP growth beats forecast, but full-year forecast cut due to tariffs
[BANGKOK] Thailand's economy grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2025, data showed on Monday (May 19), but the state planning agency slashed its full-year growth and trade forecasts as US tariffs threaten the country's export engine. Thailand faces a 36 per cent tariff on shipments to the US, its biggest export market, if a reduction cannot be negotiated before a moratorium expires in July. The economy grew 3.1 per cent in the January-to-March quarter from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) said, above market expectations of 2.9 per cent growth and just below the 3.3 per cent pace in the previous quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Council said. The agency cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.3 to 2.3 per cent from a range of 2.3 to 3.3 per cent seen earlier, saying high consumer and corporate debt burdens and the global trade war are expected to weigh on activity later in the year. 'This is not too pessimistic... and can be adjusted according to the changing situation,' NESDC head Danucha Pichayanan told a news conference. 'The impact of the US tariffs on the Thai economy is expected to last about two years as the economy already has structural problems,' he said. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up The NESDC cut its forecast for export growth this year to 1.8 per cent from 3.5 per cent. The main Thai stock index and the baht dropped slightly after the GDP data. 'Negative quarter-on-quarter GDP may be seen in the second half of the year,' Siam Commercial Bank economist Poonyawat Sreesing said, adding he expected two more interest rate cuts this year as the US tariffs slow economic activity. On a quarterly basis, South-east Asia's second-largest economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.7 per cent in the March quarter, above the poll forecast of 0.6 per cent growth and 0.4 per cent growth in the prior quarter. The US tariffs were announced in early April, and while full implementation has been delayed there is a 10 per cent interim rate on shipments. Danucha said growth could slow in the current quarter as the private sector waited for clarity on the tariffs, but noted the government had prepared 200 billion baht (S$7.8 billion) for stimulus measures. Industrial sentiment fell to a six-month low in April due to concerns about the tariffs, the Federation of Thai Industries said on Monday. The NESDC also lowered its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals to 37 million this year, from 38 million seen earlier, with Chinese tourists, the biggest source market, projected at five million. Tourist arrivals hit a record of nearly 40 million in 2019, the year before the Covid-19 pandemic. REUTERS
New Straits Times
19-05-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Thai Q1 GDP growth beats forecast, but full-year forecast cut due to tariffs
BANGKOK: Thailand's economy grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2025, data showed on Monday, but the state planning agency slashed its full-year growth and trade forecasts as US tariffs threaten the country's export engine. Thailand faces a 36 per cent tariff on shipments to the US, its biggest export market, if a reduction cannot be negotiated before a moratorium expires in July. The economy grew 3.10 per cent in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) said, above market expectations of 2.90 per cent growth and just below the 3.30 per cent pace in the previous quarter, the NESDC said. The agency cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to between 1.30 per cent and 2.30 per cent from a range of 2.30 per cent to 3.30 per cent seen earlier, saying high consumer and corporate debt burdens and the global trade war are expected to weigh on activity later in the year. "This is not too pessimistic... and can be adjusted according to the changing situation," NESDC head Danucha Pichayanan told a news conference. "The impact of the US tariffs on the Thai economy is expected to last about two years as the economy already has structural problems," he said. The NESDC cut its forecast for export growth this year to 1.80 per cent from 3.50 per cent. The main Thai stock index and the baht dropped slightly after the GDP data. "Negative quarter-on-quarter GDP may be seen in the second half of the year," Siam Commercial Bank economist Poonyawat Sreesing said, adding he expected two more interest rate cuts this year as the US tariffs slow economic activity. On a quarterly basis, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.70 per cent in the March quarter, above the poll forecast of 0.60 per cent growth and 0.40 per cent growth in the prior quarter. The US tariffs were announced in early April, and while full implementation has been delayed there is a 10 per cent interim rate on shipments. Danucha said growth could slow in the current quarter as the private sector waited for clarity on the tariffs, but noted the government had prepared RM200 billion (US$6 billion) for stimulus measures. Industrial sentiment fell to a six-month low in April due to concerns about the tariffs, the Federation of Thai Industries said on Monday. The NESDC also lowered its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals to 37 million this year, from 38 million seen earlier, with Chinese tourists, the biggest source market, projected at five million. Tourist arrivals hit a record of nearly 40 million in 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Business Recorder
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Thai Q1 GDP growth beats expectations, but full-year forecast cut
BANGKOK: Thailand's economy grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2025, data showed on Monday, but the state planning agency cut its full-year growth forecasts as US tariffs threaten to hit the country's export engine. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew 3.1% in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, slowing slightly from a revised 3.3% pace in the previous quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Council said. The growth rate was above a median forecast of 2.9% growth in a Reuters poll. On a quarterly basis, the economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in the March quarter, above the poll forecast of 0.6% growth and 0.4% growth in the prior quarter. Growth at the start of 2025 was helped by private consumption and government expenditure, but high consumer and corporate debt burdens and the global trade war are expected to weigh on activity later in the year, the NESDC said in a statement. Thai consumer confidence hits 7-month low in April due to US tariffs The agency cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.3% to 2.3% from a range of 2.3% to 3.3% seen earlier, and also lowered its forecast for export growth to 1.8% from 3.5%. Foreign tourist arrivals are now seen at 37 million this year, down from an earlier projection of 38 million, the NESDC said. Tourist arrivals hit a record of nearly 40 million in 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic.
