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Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Pre-Markets in Red on Middle-East Geopolitical Conflicts
We had thought, as of around mid-day yesterday, that all the major news items for the week had already passed. After all, both Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for May had already been released, marking the state of inflation in the U.S. economy. Also Weekly Jobless Claims and the small-business survey from NFIB came out. But all of it pales in comparison to Israel's military strike on Iran yesterday. The unprecedented event has immediately sent up oil and gold prices on the global market. Both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude prices are up over +7% this morning, pushing both levels over $70 per barrel. Just 5 weeks ago, oil was at 4-year lows: $57 per barrel. This is shaping up to be the largest one-day gain in oil prices for at least 5 has reportedly attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, located at various regions throughout the Mid-Eastern country. But analysts have long theorized that retaliation could come in terms of shutting down oil ports in the region, making availability scare and driving up the price per barrel. Those spot prices have already gotten a head start; we hadn't seen $70 oil since April 2nd, literally the day the U.S. slapped massive reciprocal tariffs on virtually all of its trade prices have surged in a similar manner — long seen as a hedge against global economic turmoil. After notching all-time highs two months ago to the day, at $3425 per ounce, gold prices have launched into another orbit: $3450 at this hour, up +1.4% so far today. For some context, these levels are more than double where we were at October 2022 lows of $1644 per yields are up also, but in a much more measured fashion. In fact, they're coming off relatively low levels in the past few days, and are now +4.36% on the 10-year, +3.93% on the 2-year and +4.86% on the 30-year. These yields have been policing U.S. market exuberance so far in 2025; it remains to be seen if it will also have an impact on current the Dow and S&P 500 are down -1% at this hour. The Nasdaq, which has again led market indexes over the past month, is down -1.3% currently. The small-cap Russell 2000 remains the laggard, as it has since early February, is down -1.4% so far this morning. After the market opens, a preliminary June Consumer Sentiment report is due, expected to come in a couple points higher month over month, to 54.0. But to be honest, the market will rest heavily on this morning's headlines — including what happens next, in terms of Iran's retaliation, etc. — and whether or not indexes can notch their third-straight week higher. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Forbes
12-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Job Growth Sputters
The services sector in the U.S. is dominated by small businesses and has been a source of economic strength since the last recession. But it is starting to show signs of weakness according to the ISM Services Index and, being labor intensive, that weakness is showing up in the employment statistics. May employment came in at 139,000, but revisions in the prior two-month estimates totaled 95,000 lower than previously reported, producing a net gain of only 44,000 jobs. The number of part-time workers wanting a full-time job is at the highest level seen since 2019. Growth was concentrated in the private sector, education, health care, and leisure and hospitality. Government sector growth remained depressed, down by 59,000 jobs since January, after months of leading job growth. According to NFIB's Small Business Economic Trends survey, the percent of firms increasing total employment has languished since 2020. Changes in economic policy have been major drivers of employment. The 2016-2019 period was very different from that of 2020-2025, especially with Covid related business restrictions early on, heavily impacting economic activity. Overall, while hiring plans are positive, there are plenty of job openings, especially in the transportation, construction, and manufacturing industries, small business employment is also losing steam. The hiring pressures of a few years ago have tapered off. Small businesses are more uncertainty about economic conditions going forward and are holding on tighter to their wallets. The number of owners increasing compensation has eased and fewer are planning to increase going forward. And most telling, labor quality is no longer the top problem for small business owners, it's been replaced by taxes. Sixteen percent of small business owners named labor quality as the single biggest problem compared to 24 percent of owners reporting the same two years ago. Job reductions were strongest in retail, along with cuts in services. Most manufacturing firms in the U.S. are 'small' and specialized, and have the lowest level of employment reductions. Job openings remain eleveated (JOLTS, NFIB), and owners continue to complain of too few qualified applicants for the openings they are trying to fill. In May, 55 percent reported hiring or trying to hire in May, down 1 point from April. Eighty-six percent of those hiring or trying to hire reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. The impact of DOGE reductions is yet to be felt, as compensation will continue until September for most, and even until the end of the year for others. While labor market pressures are easing, it's not signaling any distress alarms so far.
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Small business optimism rises on forecasts for higher sales growth: NFIB
This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Optimism among small businesses rose in May from a four-month slump on expectations for brighter business conditions and higher sales, the National Federation of Independent Business said Tuesday. The proportion of small business owners planning capital outlays this year increased to 22%, the highest level of 2025, NFIB found in a monthly survey. Respondents identified taxes as their biggest problem, including Trump administration tariffs and the possibility that Congress will fail to pass legislation extending 2017 tax cuts. 'Congress hasn't passed the Big Beautiful Bill yet and [President Donald] Trump is still messing with tariffs — the uncertainty level is rising,' the NFIB said in a statement. 'The economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty are resolved.' Stumble or not, the U.S. economy will likely slow to a 1.4% growth pace this year from 2.8% in 2024, the World Bank forecast Tuesday, citing the burden from Trump's tariffs. 'The outlook for U.S. growth and inflation in 2025 has deteriorated relative to January forecasts,' the World Bank said in a report. 'The rise in trade barriers, heightened uncertainty and the spike in financial market volatility are set to weigh on private consumption, international trade and investment,' the World Bank said. 'As a result, U.S. growth is expected to decelerate sharply in 2025, to 1.4 percent,' the World Bank said. 'Investment spending is projected to be particularly hard-hit following the earlier frontloading of imported investment goods.' The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on June 3 also noted the drag from import levies when downgrading its forecast for U.S. gross domestic product growth in 2025 to 1.6%. 'Although optimism recovered slightly in May, uncertainty is still high among small business owners,' NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a statement. Small business owners last ranked taxes as their No. 1 problem in December 2020, NFIB said. Fourteen percent of respondents said that inflation — a likely result from the highest tariffs since the 1930s — was their single most important problem, according to NFIB. Thirty-eight percent of small businesses reported higher average selling prices in April. Price pressures have gradually fallen. The personal consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — rose just 0.1% in April, the Commerce Department reported on May 30. On an annual basis, the PCE slowed to 2.1% through April from 2.3% in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday is scheduled to release May inflation data. The proportion of small business owners expecting an increase in sales rose 11 points last month compared with April for a net 10% gain, the NFIB said. Improved prospects for sales was the biggest factor pushing up the NFIB's Optimism Index beyond its 51-year average. 'Even with a brighter outlook, owners are staying sharp — reevaluating costs, being strategic with hiring and keeping a close eye on borrowing,' Mark Valentino, head of business banking at Citizens, said in an email. 'Easing fears around tariffs may be helping sentiment, but long-term pressures remain, especially for businesses reliant on global supply chains and seasonal labor,' he said. Recommended Reading Wage gains, inflation undercut Fed forecast for three rate cuts this year Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Small Business Optimism Grows: What's Ahead for ETFs?
Small business owners grew more optimistic in May, reflecting improved expectations for business conditions and sales, according to the latest data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). The latest data revealed that the small business optimism index climbed to 98.8 in May, up from 95.8 in April. This marked the first rise since September. Small businesses serve as a vital barometer of the U.S. economy. The rebound in optimism could reflect a stabilizing business environment, offering a bullish signal for market sentiment and boding well for small-cap stocks and this, we have highlighted a few top-ranked ETFs that could be better plays going forward. These are iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF IJR, iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM, Vanguard Small-Cap ETF VB, Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF SCHA and Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF VTWO. These funds have a Zacks ETF Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy), suggesting their outperformance in the months ahead. Economic data in May reinforced optimism. After five consecutive months of declines, consumer confidence rebounded. The U.S. labor market remained resilient amid the tariff chaos. The economy added more-than-expected 139,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% (read: S&P 500 Wraps Up Best May Since 1990: 5 Top Stocks in the ETF). The share of business owners expecting improved business conditions jumped 10 percentage points month over month to 25%, while those anticipating higher real sales volumes rose 11 points to 10%.Although optimism recovered in May, uncertainty is still high among small business owners as taxes, tariffs and inflation fear are keeping owners on edge. Taxes have emerged as the top concern, cited by 18% of the respondents. This is the first time this issue has ranked highest since late 2020, surpassing worries about labor quality and inflation. Inflation remains a concern, too, with 14% of owners listing it as their biggest problem even though consumer prices rose just 2.3% year over year in April, the lowest reading since February 2021. According to World Bank forecasts, U.S. economic growth will likely slow down to 1.4% this year from 2.8% in 2024, citing the burden from Trump's tariffs. The agency also stated that the rise in trade barriers, heightened uncertainty and the spike in financial market volatility are set to weigh on private consumption, international trade and investment. We have profiled the abovementioned ETFs here:iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF is the largest and most popular ETF in the small-cap space, with an AUM of $78.1 billion and an average daily volume of 4 million shares. It follows the S&P SmallCap 600 Index and holds 629 stocks in its basket, with none accounting for more than 0.6% of the assets. Industrials, financials, consumer discretionary and information technology are the top four sectors with double-digit exposure each. The product charges investors 6 bps in annual Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)iShares Russell 2000 ETF tracks the Russell 2000 Index and holds 1,934 well-diversified stocks in its basket. IWM has key holdings in financials, industrials, healthcare, and information technology. iShares Russell 2000 ETF has AUM of $61.9 billion and trades in an average daily volume of 30 million shares. It charges 19 bps in annual fees (read: 3 Factors That Could Give Struggling Small-Cap ETFs a Boost).Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) Vanguard Small-Cap ETF follows the CRSP US Small Cap Index and holds a basket of 1,349 stocks, with none holding more than 0.5% of the assets. Vanguard Small-Cap ETF is widely spread across various sectors, with industrials, consumer discretionary, financials, information technology and healthcare being the top five. Vanguard Small-Cap ETF has AUM of $62.4 billion and trades in a solid average daily volume of about 826,000 shares. It charges 5 bps in fees per year from investors. Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF (SCHA) Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Small-Cap Total Stock Market Index, holding 1,713 stocks in its basket. Each security accounts for less than 0.5% of the assets. SCHA is widely spread across sectors, with financials, industrials, health care, information technology and consumer discretionary having double-digit exposure each. Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF has amassed $17 billion in its asset base and sees a solid volume of around 2.3 million shares a day. It has an expense ratio of 0.04%. Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO)Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF tracks the Russell 2000 Index, holding 1,955 stocks in its basket, with none making up for more than 0.7% of the assets. It is widely spread across various sectors, with financials, industrials, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and information technology being the top five. Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF has accumulated $12.3 billion in its asset base and trades in an average daily volume of 1.3 million shares. The product charges 7 bps in annual fees. While confidence among small-cap companies is improving, they continue to grapple with headwinds such as evolving tax policies, persistent labor shortages and tighter credit conditions. These challenges could impact their earnings potential and could shape the trajectory of U.S. recovery. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM): ETF Research Reports iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR): ETF Research Reports Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF (SCHA): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Standard
11-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Wall Street Rises Ahead of Inflation Data; Gold and Oil Slip on US
Stocks gain modestly as investors await inflation reports; NFIB index up but gold and oil dip amid cautious sentiment and global trade concerns. The Dow climbed 105.11 points or 0.25 percent to finish at 42,866.87, while the NASDAQ gained 123.75 points or 0.63 percent to close at 19,714.99 and the S&P 500 added 32.93 points or 0.55 percent to end at 6,038.81. The National Federation of Independent Business said the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US increased to 98.8 in May 2025. a lack of major U.S. economic data probably kept traders on the sidelines as they look ahead to the release of crucial reports on consumer and producer price inflation in the coming days. European stocks turned in a mixed performance. the mood remained cautious in most of the markets amid a lack of any significant economic data or earnings news from the region. Crude oil prices were down amidst uncertainty over trade talks between China and the United States continued, although the outcome remains uncertain. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery closed down by $0.31 to settle at $64.98 per barrel. Gold prices dipped ahead of US inflation report and ongoing US-China official talks which is now the focus of investors from all over the world. Front Month Comex Gold for June delivery lost $11.20 (or 0.34%) to $3320.90 per troy ounce on Tuesday. Front Month Comex Silver for June delivery lost $14.60 cents (or 0.40%) to $36.54 today.
