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Spectator
13-06-2025
- Politics
- Spectator
Tackling child poverty may prove a vote winner for Farage
In news bound to make Keir Starmer nervous, voters in 121 Labour-held constituencies with high rates of child poverty are reportedly prepared to support Nigel Farage at the next election and hand their seats to Reform. This shock projection, via the Financial Times and More in Common polling, came less than a fortnight after the Reform party leader declared that he would scrap the two-child benefit cap. Could it be that limiting benefits to families with two children, a policy once so popular with the public, has lost its appeal? Farage is winning over swathes of Labour's heartland in part because he has smelled a vote-winner: removing the two-child benefit cap may play to Reform's natalist agenda, but being seen to battle child poverty will make a fatherly Farage popular across the country's disadvantaged areas. While the government stalls on publishing its child poverty strategy, alarming stats have brought home to parents in the poorest areas just how badly their children are faring. No matter their race, ethnicity, number of siblings or parents' party allegiance, children born in areas such as Blackpool or Knowsley (both with some of the highest proportions of disadvantaged neighbourhoods among local authorities) are less likely to achieve good developmental goals by the age of five.


Channel 4
11-06-2025
- Business
- Channel 4
Will Reeves' spending review turbocharge or tank UK economy?
Rachel Reeves has unveiled her long-awaited spending review, with the NHS and defence seeing the most gains while many other departments face cuts – so, is this the kind of spending programme that will transform the UK economy and help Keir Starmer see off the threat of Nigel Farage's Reform UK? In this special episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by our Economics Correspondent Helia Ebrahimi and Luke Tryl, the director of the More in Common polling company.


Spectator
30-05-2025
- Politics
- Spectator
What will save the Tories? The economy, or Robert Jenrick?
Lots to discuss today: Robert Jenrick takes on TfL, a Nazi jibe from the attorney general and allegations of shoplifting made against our own Michael Simmons. But we start with Keir Starmer's big speech yesterday, where the theme was 'get Nigel', after polling from More in Common showed that framing the election as a two-horse race could be beneficial to Labour. They are attempting to cut the Tories out altogether but, in response, the Conservatives plan to use fiscal credibility as the battleground to crawl back up the polls. Will the economy save the Tories? Elsewhere, Robert Jenrick is the star of the week after a video of him reprimanding fare-dodgers on the Tube went viral, racking up more than ten million views on X. He seems to have struck a chord both within his party and with the public more generally, who are growing tired of our low-trust society and the blight of petty crime. Is Jenrick the one to tackle 'Scuzz Nation'? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Michael Simmons. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
‘I feel like a stranger in my own town'
A burly young man with blond hair and an Eastern European accent is towering over me and yelling with incandescent rage. Expletives are raining down on to my upturned face. I am a f---ing fascist. I am twisting the f---ing truth. He hopes something f---ing awful happens to me. For a moment, I think he might punch me with one of his pale, meaty fists, but instead, he turns and strides off along the high street. A woman hurries over to check on me. I confirm I'm a little shaken but otherwise alright. 'What a nutter; I'm sorry that happened to you. It's just another day in Erdington,' she mutters with a tight smile before patting my arm and returning to her shopping. Just another day in Erdington; I soon discover the power and poignancy in her understatement for myself. I have come to this outer suburb of Birmingham in a quest to understand why a sense of belonging appears to be waning among many in Britain. Conscious of public concern about uncontrolled migration, Sir Keir Starmer warned earlier this month that Britain could become 'an island of strangers' if the issue isn't tackled. A survey carried out by More in Common pollsters revealed that nationwide, 44 per cent of people already feel like strangers in their own country. But immigration was far from the sole reason; the cost-of-living crisis, the shift to working from home and the decline of town centres were also cited. The Midlands in particular scores highly for a sense of deep isolation and further number crunching by The Telegraph's data team has identified this relatively distant suburb of Birmingham as a place where divisions could be rife. One in five residents was born overseas but it is also a Reform UK stronghold, helped by the party's hardline stance on immigration. As I soon discover, though, feeling like a stranger in your own community is far more complex than simple divisions – real or perceived – rooted in race or language. The myriad challenges faced by the people of Erdington are those experienced in many down-at-heel places across Britain. 'We all feel like strangers here because this place is unrecognisable, there are far too many people from different cultures,' says Sean Halloran, 59, a former gardener and more recently a family carer. 'People don't integrate and they should. I'm not being racist, it's just a fact; anyone who comes to Britain should contribute – should want to contribute. 'Britain should be proud to offer asylum to genuine refugees but how come when you watch TV footage, it's women and children and tiny babies desperately needing help when most of the small boats that come across the Channel are filled with men in their 20s and 30s?' Halloran describes himself as a lifelong Labour supporter but adds: 'If things keep going like this, next time I'll vote Reform.' The constituency of Erdington is four miles north east of Birmingham city centre and at first glance is a mix of demographics. There are smart newbuilds and grotty terraces with rusting satellite dishes, a gleaming leisure centre and run-down pubs. The independent Highclare School is just opposite the Lidl. But deprivation runs through it like with a stick of rock. It is the High Street that tells the story of Erdington best. Marks & Spencer closed down years ago. The Boots is gone. The bank is now a branch of Domino's. In their stead Raja Exotics, Mammas African Kitchen and the Hungarian Market. The B23 Express sets out its stall: Sklep Magazin Obchod Parduotuve, its sign reads. 'I am going to move out before my little girl is born,' says Charlotte, 28, an office worker seven months pregnant with her first baby. 'At my hospital midwife appointments I'm often the only white person there; so yes, I do very much feel like a stranger in this town. 'I couldn't send her to school here – I want her to be brought up with British values. People come to this country and don't respect our way of life; they turn to crime and have made it feel very unsafe. I wouldn't dream of going out late at night.' It would be easy to categorise – castigate – the entire local British-born population as racist. Easy but inaccurate. The truth – differently unpalatable and depressing – is more nuanced. Gavin Johnson, whose parents are from Jamaica and St Kitts, has lived in the area for most of his life. He wrinkles his nose and shakes his head when I ask about racial tensions. 'This is not a friendly place but it's nothing to do with race or nationality. I was born in London, I'm as British as they come,' says the unemployed 35-year-old. 'Nobody speaks to anybody, there's no community. People just rush in and out of their houses and ignore everyone else.' Later, I talk to 34-year-old Ibrahim from Iraq. In the two years he's been here, he has never once experienced any hint of racism. There are other issues blighting his experience, however. 'Erdington would be OK without all the violence on the street,' he observes flatly. 'I work hard, I pay my taxes but all the problems make it hard to live here.' Overwhelmingly, local people's concerns – fears – are reflected by the deeply unpleasant encounter I had earlier in the street. Was the man who threatened me drunk, on drugs? Who knows? But what I can say with certainty is that from the moment I arrived, I was genuinely appalled by the number of addicts and alcoholics wandering the main streets of Erdington – at 10am. The first three or four people I spoke to had no teeth. Conservative voter and mother-of-two Allison Singer is of mixed heritage. The 43-year-old office worker embraces the multiculturalism but despairs of a town now a shadow of its former self. 'There's all sort of criminality going on in broad daylight,' she says. 'It's become really rough here because people have been getting away with it, which attracts more trouble. I can see myself voting for Reform in future because something needs to change.' I live in east London: I'm not unfamiliar with the sketchy side of life. But to see so many unkempt men and a few women, cheeks hollowed out, clutching cans and reeking of weed, was shocking. Some were openly begging. 'This place is crawling with crackheads,' shop worker Lucy Hayes, 23, tells me bluntly. 'This area has always had people coming to settle here, in particular the Irish – that's not the issue. It's the way criminals have taken over and are bringing the place down. There's no sense of community anymore, which is a real shame.' The reason for the distress and outright anger of local people is that they feel Erdington has become a 'dumping ground' for refugees, ex-prisoners and those with mental health issues – of all nationalities. They are put up in HMOs – houses in multiple occupation – and the area has seen an explosion of these properties. Last month, the Home Office formally called on landlords to house asylum seekers in a bid to reduce hotel bills. 'You get this group of men who show each other how to make the most of the benefits system and who take drugs and become desensitised to antisocial behaviour,' says Jonathan Sheldon, 35, a former jeweller turned stay-at-home dad. 'It can end in disaster.' Erdington already has 180 HMOs, a number branded excessive by local Labour MP Paulette Hamilton, who has pledged to oppose all further applications. She 'made it her mission' to bring a halt to the 'misery' they cause families as well as the way they alter the character of neighbourhoods. 'We cannot afford to keep sacrificing family homes and neighbourhood stability for the sake of profit-driven developments,' she told Birmingham Live in February. 'They bring increased crime, antisocial behaviour and strain on already overstretched resources. To anyone thinking of opening yet another HMO in Erdington, the message from locals is loud and clear: no more are welcome here.' But it's hard not to conclude that the damage has already been done. Erdington already appears to be mired in misery, its citizens bewildered and, yes, estranged by the pace and direction of change. At City Meats in Wilton Market, a butcher, who asks not to be named, admits that shoplifting is rife. 'They come in, pick up entire trays of meat and run away again,' he says. 'We don't just lose the stock, we also have to replace the metal trays, which they just bin somewhere.' He tells me that when he was a boy, Erdington High Street was known as the Golden Mile and was a bona fide shopping and leisure destination with two picture houses and leading retailers including Littlewoods and Woolworths. 'There was a saying that if you couldn't get it on the Golden Mile you couldn't get it anywhere,' he smiles nostalgically. 'Nobody comes here now, especially not older people. Why would they?' Why indeed, unless to cause trouble? Crime reached such a high point last year that in January 2025, Operation Fearless was launched by police in the town centre in a bid to reduce shoplifting, drug dealing and violence. A dedicated team including a sergeant and six uniformed officers have overseen more than 140 arrests and seized contraband off the streets including an arsenal of dangerous weapons and illegal drugs worth hundreds of thousands of pounds. For all that success, there are no bobbies on the beat today. If there were, I might not have had to endure such a frightening confrontation. Erdington ward Tory councillor Robert Alden, who is also leader of the Conservative Group on Birmingham city council, reckons that for all its difficulties, community links are thriving in Erdington, which is, according to him, 'a great place to live'. He also tells me about something far more worrying than the town's HMOs: the unchecked proliferation of 'exempt accommodation'. This is an unregulated form of supported housing for tenants such as rough sleepers, prison leavers and refugees. Unlike HMOs, they are exempt from planning permission: they are supposed to provide support but very often they don't. 'A two or three-bedroom house in a terrace that should house a family can be converted into a six to seven-bed, often very poor-quality, accommodation for a transient population. It hurts communities and it needs to stop,' says Alden. 'We need to be able to say, 'No, that's not suitable here.'' He asked West Midlands Mayor Richard Parker to write to the Government requesting that exempt accommodation be brought under the planning system. That could only be a good thing for Erdington. But Alden has other ambitions too: namely tackling the dismal, dangerous High Street. 'We don't need so many takeaways, off-licences and empty units,' he says, a doleful observation that could be made of countless town centres across Britain. 'Out-of-town retail parks have hit the town but if we remodel the street and introduce leisure activities it will encourage people to spend more time here and will draw more independent shops.' But first, they must feel safe. To that end, Alden is campaigning to have Erdington's police station reopened. To my casual eye it seems crazy, shameful that it isn't; slap-bang in the middle of this increasingly lawless town and yet permanently shuttered. Meanwhile, locals are reluctant to linger at the shops for fear of harassment. Begging is par for the course, confides Pamela Gibbins, 68. 'Don't get me wrong, I'm a charitable person but I hate it when people hassle me for money,' she says. 'There's too much thieving and alcohol and drug abuse. 'Do I feel like I am a stranger in Erdington? Yes, I certainly don't feel I belong in a place where I'm preyed upon every time I want to pick up some groceries. There are so many out-of-control people it sometimes feels like we are on the verge of civil war.' Additional reporting by Ben Butcher Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.


New European
27-05-2025
- Politics
- New European
Prisoners of circumstance
Superficially, this could hardly be more dispiriting for those like me who believe that the country already jails far too many people. The justice secretary herself went on to admit that 'our prisons too often create better criminals, not better citizens'. But the country's penchant for locking up offenders has landed this government with a massive problem: a constantly growing demand for places in institutions, many of which are unfit for purpose and some of which are unfit for habitation of any kind. Rejoice! The UK government is on track for 'the largest expansion since the Victorians' in one crucial area of infrastructure. Could that be schools for social carers, perhaps, or roads, or maybe, at last, some new reservoirs? No, the proud boast made to parliament last Thursday relates to prison places. It appears Keir Starmer wants to radically reshape prison policy. His appointment of James, now Lord, Timpson as prisons minister indicated a determination to bring real reform. Asking David Gauke to lead a review of sentencing policy was another pragmatic step in that direction: Gauke is a former Tory justice minister who was sacked from the party, and then from parliament, because of his lack of support for Boris Johnson's Brexit strategy. Gauke's report advocating more use of non-custodial sentences and a greater emphasis on dealing with the underlying problems of offenders – a high proportion of whom have addiction issues, poor levels of literacy and multiple difficulties with housing, relationships and general health – accompanied the statement by Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary. The official launch was pre-empted by a flurry of media excitement about 'chemical castration' for sex offenders. This is a gross exaggeration of the use of medication that the report moots as a possibility, and was guaranteed to upset social liberals. Yet some cynics might suggest that the government would have been happy with that outcome. When the then home secretary, Michael Howard, declared in 1993 that 'prison works', heads across the UK nodded in agreement, many adding a wish to 'throw away the key'. Their views have not changed, even though it is now clear that crime can thrive even inside some prisons, where drugs proliferate and those who enter without a habit are at risk of picking one up. Punishment rather than rehabilitation is the demand from many voters. Any liberal thinker who doubts that should take note of the polling on capital punishment. In January this year, More in Common found that 55% of people wanted to bring back the ultimate sanction for crimes such as multiple murder and terrorism, up from 50% a couple of years earlier. Among millennials, (those born between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s) the proportion in favour was 58%. Only 27% were opposed. Even if the government had once been prepared to take a principled stand on issues such as prisons, the local election results, with the massive victories for Reform, will have reminded it that it cannot risk alienating a significant proportion of the electorate. 'Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime' was the slogan first used by Tony Blair when, as shadow home secretary, he addressed the Labour conference in the year that Howard made his (in)famous remark. Blair was acknowledging the voters' appetite for harsh punishment – Starmer knows he must do the same. But the crisis point that is now being reached in the UK's prisons provides an opportunity to make changes while blaming impossible inherited circumstances. Sentencing guidelines that pander to the public and the more strident media have led to a record number of people being crowded into a limited prison estate. This has had disastrous effects, not least on any hope of rehabilitation, as facilities and staff for training and education are overwhelmed. The government has already had to institute one batch of early releases in order to avoid a potential complete breakdown in the system, when there would simply have been nowhere left to send even the most dangerous criminals. Now, despite another 2,400 places being added, if current trends continue, by early 2028 the country will be short of 9,500 prison places. This is why the government has accepted Gauke's recommendation that most prison sentences should offer the chance of earlier release, on licence and with strict conditions, than is currently the case. There will also be a move towards much greater use of non-custodial sentences for offences that currently put people behind bars for less than a year, often with disastrous long-term effects. These sentences do not work on any level: nearly 60% of those sentenced to 12 months or less reoffend within a year. And, while women make up only a tiny proportion of the prison population, there will be a determined effort to further reduce the number. Achieving a more humane, successful and economic prison system will take time. These may seem like baby steps to prison reform, but they are a start. Crucially, they are enough to unsettle the extreme 'throw away the key' brigade without alienating the bulk of the electorate.